451 replies to this topic

[Beri]

The question says it all; Who do you think will be crowned as 2024 Formula One World Champion? And why?

 

And yes, this thread begs for a Poll.

 

 

My two cents are that Verstappen is the more mature or seasoned driver of the three choices. He has shown in wheel to wheel racing that he has the shrewdness to lure other drivers into mistakes and still come out on top. Even if that hands (or should hand) him a penalty as well. Norris has experienced this first hand at Austria and Austin. And despite you might not like this kind of driving, it is exactly what it takes to nibble away points from the competition and thus in the end become World Champion. 

Combine this with Red Bull having brought updates at Austin, that seem to suit Verstappen, and for me it is clear cut that Verstappen is the title favourite.

 

On Norris and Leclerc it is safe to say that nothing is certain. Ferrari seem to have strong pace and Leclerc his driving is among the best I have seen him do in his entire career. The points deficit is only 22 points in favor of Norris, after Austin, and considering over the past 6 Grands Prix the points tally is 105 for Norris and 113 for Leclerc, it is safe to say that nothing is decided yet on who will become 2nd in the championship. Even the constructors title is a possibility still for Ferrari if they manage to outscore McLaren every weekend. Because Ferrari gained 27 points on McLaren over the Grand Prix at Austin.

 

As a fan of Formula One with none of the named drivers or teams being amongst his personal favourites, it pleases me to say that we are experiencing one hell of a fantastic season. I am glad this panned out the way it did, after all the doom and gloom of a dominant season for Red Bull and Verstappen during the early stages of the season. And it makes me curious how others experience this and who is their favourite driver for the title.

[PayasYouRace]

Max had it wrapped up in May. Anyone else has always been a long shot.

This season has been great and we’d have a title fight for the ages if the season had stated in Miami.

[Clrnc]

Max had it wrapped up very early on before Miami.

This season reminds me of 2009 when Button had it wrapped up early on and just needed to finish consistently to clinch the title because 3 other teams are taking points off each other

[TheFish]

I think Max will win by more than his current gap.

He’s a better driver than Lando and the car performances between the top 3 (and occasionally Merc) are close.

[PayasYouRace]

Additionally. To have a season where four teams have had pace to win more than one race throughout the season is a rare treat. I don’t think that’s ever happened in my lifetime. Despite the title fight being a forgone conclusion, this season has had me riveted. We genuinely don’t know who will win each weekend. Thats such a breath of fresh air in Formula 1.

If Max somehow loses this title it would be the biggest choke in the championship’s history.

[jonklug]

Max had it wrapped up very early on before Miami.

This season reminds me of 2009 when Button had it wrapped up early on and just needed to finish consistently to clinch the title because 3 other teams are taking points off each other

 

Still my favorite season ever. Probably enjoyed that even more than Michael's 2000 championship win which was his first with Ferrari. 

 

To answer the question of the thread, Max but I think the gap will come down a bit more than some expect, RedBull still aren't there.

Edited by jonklug, 21 October 2024 - 08:14.

[messy]

Max has it. He's realistically had it for months - even if he's likely to win it in slightly less of a blaze of glory than previously, the title is still just as valid.

Leclerc is doing a very good job of keeping the unofficial "#1 driver of the season" discussion open, though, and McLaren's likely WCC title is a big story.

Edited by messy, 21 October 2024 - 08:22.

[PayasYouRace]

The would be quite something, and looking quite possible, to have the WDC’s team in third in the WCC, and the WCC winner’s best driver in third in the WDC.

[Baddoer]

One DNF for Max and its on...

[keeppari]

One DNF for Max and this question becomes relevant. Otherwise he just needs to finish.

[Anderis]

I don't agree with the claims that Max had it wrapped in May. The period between Imola and Austria was really lucky for him, so many things that went right for him that didn't have to. It was a miracle that he won 3 races in that period. I don't think Red Bull was the fastest car in any of those races and he kept just edging it with the tiniest margins, sometimes aided by things that were outside his control. The point gap could've easily been less than half of what it is now. Like Austria collision doesn't go his way and it alone makes it no more than 40 instead of 57. Add Piastri not racing Norris in Hungary and Italy and the gap probably shrinks to 23 and that's even before we consider changing the outcomes of one of the races between Imola and Spain, each of which had a very realistic potential of going worse for Verstappen than it actually did.

 

Austin was probably the last race when the season could've turned around but it switched some recent trends in Verstappen's favour: Red Bull looked stronger than in previous races, McLaren realtively weaker than in previous races and Norris lost further points instead of gaining some. Now it's probably over barring some DNFs for Verstappen but I insist it didn't have to be this way.

[Andreas93]

Max had it wrapped up very early on before Miami.

This season reminds me of 2009 when Button had it wrapped up early on and just needed to finish consistently to clinch the title because 3 other teams are taking points off each other

The performance of Norris is also quite reminiscent of young Vettel, fast but nowhere near ready for the challenge.

[AlexPrime]

I don't want to jinx it, so I won't vote. Heart wants Max, mind says he is the likely winner, fear says Norris. Charlie IMO has no chance. We shall see.

[Diablobb81]

The problem for Lando is Charles. When three fight, the advantage Max has in points is probably enough.

[Andreas93]

Most probably it will go to Max, and it deservedly all things considered, he was more consistent than Norris, and also a bit luckier in many instances. 

 

Than again, there are still five races to go and Red Bull still seem to lack race pace. Their forte in Austin was sector one where Max was lightning, so in fast corners, but the remaining tracks will not feature many layouts like that so with a lot of luck Norris might get closer, but I don't expect it.

[DeKnyff]

Max had it wrapped up in May. Anyone else has always been a long shot.

This season has been great and we’d have a title fight for the ages if the season had stated in Miami.

 

At the end of May (after Monaco), Verstappen had a lead of 56 points over Norris, with sixteen races and four sprints to go. This is three points per race and two per sprint for Norris to recover. McLaren had the fastest car, while Red Bull was mixing with Ferrari and Mercedes (depending on the track). The title wasn't such a long shot for Norris, IMO.

 

The situation was even better at The Championship before Miami, when McLaren began having the best car: a 52 point advantage for Verstappen, with nineteen races and five sprints to go. This makes just above two points per race to be gained.

 

Now it's all done and dusted, though.

[SenorSjon]

I see Leclerc finishing 2nd instead of Norris. The gap between them is much closer than the gap to Verstappen. And yesterday saw another 13 pts reduction of the gap between the numbers 2 and 3.

 

With 146 points to play for, Verstappen can let the two fight and still come out on top.

Edited by SenorSjon, 21 October 2024 - 11:33.

[Dutchrudder]

Max has it. He's realistically had it for months - even if he's likely to win it in slightly less of a blaze of glory than previously, the title is still just as valid.

Leclerc is doing a very good job of keeping the unofficial "#1 driver of the season" discussion open, though, and McLaren's likely WCC title is a big story.

As ready as I am for a different champion, and as much as I disagree with the Norris penalty in the last race, the performance of Max so far this season has been phenomenal, yet again yesterday he finessed 3rd in the 5th fastest car on the track, he’s outperforming the car consistently, had a slower car than either the McLaren or Ferrari since around May and has still out scored them. And on top of that the lead he is defending was built by metronomic consistency when the car he was given was the fastest, something no other driver has been able to match him at in recent years. If he wins another WDC it will be hard fought, whilst anyone who can outperform him at his current level and overhaul that deficit would also be a worthy champion. It’s been a great season.

[Coral]

Max, unfortunately. He just has too big a lead. Hopefully this will be his last WDC.

[noikeee]

yesterday he finessed 3rd in the 5th fastest car on the track,

So was it Haas or VCARB the 4th fastest car?

Max is doing great but let's not exaggerate

[Ruudbackus]

Given the tracks coming up I expect Ferrari to be strong in Vegas and Mexico, Mclaren in Losail and Brazil and redbull in Abu Dhabi. Norris and Leclerc will take points of eachother and for one of them to really have a change they need to win all. Max is 57 ahead of Norris and 79 ahead of Leclerc. 

 

With 2 sprints (16) points and 5 gps (130 points) there are 146 points remaining to gain. That is if one driver wins all. I dont think that will happen and even a DNF from Verstappen is not enough I feel. 

[PayasYouRace]

So was it Haas or VCARB the 4th fastest car?

Max is doing great but let's not exaggerate

I think Dutchrudder was counting both McLarens and both Ferraris separately. Weird way to do it but it makes Max sound even better.

[le chat noir]

The would be quite something, and looking quite possible, to have the WDC’s team in third in the WCC, and the WCC winner’s best driver in third in the WDC.

 

That would suggest the WCC has been a case of the number 2 driver's performance making the difference. So extra harsh then that the WCC's number 2 driver is fired to make way for the fourth placed team's number 2 driver...

[PayasYouRace]

That would suggest the WCC has been a case of the number 2 driver's performance making the difference. So extra harsh then that the WCC's number 2 driver is fired to make way for the fourth placed team's number 2 driver...

Since 1979 the WCC has always depended on the second drivers. For example, see Mansell making the difference in 1994.

Your scenario applies if Ferrari wins the WCC and Leclerc is third. Obviously wouldn’t apply if McLaren wins the WCC and Lando is third. Which to be honest, the latter seems the more likely result to me.

[Dalton007]

The best drivers win the WDC as soon as they get a sniff. Lando isn't quite there. Fast, but doesn't have the bastard quality to win, plus operational errors by the team have cost him. Max would be winning in that car.

 

Max is an exceptional talent, able to extract performance whereas his team-mate flounders 30 seconds behind. He saves weekends where the car isn't the fastest. Yesterday he beat a faster car, his championship rival, and if he was in the lead, dare I say it, he would have found a way to win.

[messy]

The only thing that bothers me about Max is this whole ('if you come up behind me I'd rather crash with you than let you pass' thing, which brings to mind 2021 when you just knew that if he had to defend against Lewis, they'd end up colliding. The last few times with Norris feel the same, except Lando is more of a pushover than Lewis was. I get the logic - if he finishes ahead he extends, if they crash he doesn't lose, if they get past he loses points - but he's a aggressive in his desperation not to be passed. It made the end of 2021 really messy and he clearly still has the same mentality now, it's just lay dormant while he's been dominating. Overall I think Max is THE only deserving WDC for this year.

[lewislorenzo]

The only thing that bothers me about Max is this whole ('if you come up behind me I'd rather crash with you than let you pass' thing, which brings to mind 2021 when you just knew that if he had to defend against Lewis, they'd end up colliding. The last few times with Norris feel the same, except Lando is more of a pushover than Lewis was. I get the logic - if he finishes ahead he extends, if they crash he doesn't lose, if they get past he loses points - but he's a aggressive in his desperation not to be passed. It made the end of 2021 really messy and he clearly still has the same mentality now, it's just lay dormant while he's been dominating. Overall I think Max is THE only deserving WDC for this year.

Max can afford contact Lando can’t unfortunately😅

[Massa]

Charles will pull a Raikkonen 2007.

For that, he need a 2 DNF for Max, 1 for Lando, and finish every remaining races 1 or 2.

Leclerc had a race winning car at every race since Monza, himself and the team were idiotic at Baku, they learn from it, so I believe in him.

He will deliver 😌

Edited by Massa, 21 October 2024 - 12:30.

[Anja]

Charles will pull a Raikkonen 2007.

For that, he need a 2 DNF for Max, 1 for Lando, and finish every remaining races 1 or 2.

Leclerc had a race winning car at every race since Monza, himself and the team were idiotic at Baku, they learn from it, so I believe in him.

He will deliver

 

[Massa]

I didn't even knew that.

[7MGTEsup]

I think Max needs to keep an eye on Charles. If he focuses only on Lando and they have a coming together and charles wins then the gap could dissapear pretty fast. 

 

I feel Max will be very hard to overhaul as the others take points off eachother, but I wouldn't be willing to bet my house on it.

[JimmyClark]

90% sure it will be Max, barring a catastrophe. I think Lando not gaining any ground here has left him with too much work to do for the final 5 races. 

 

Charles is just too far back to be a factor, unless Max and Lando start colliding lots. 

[SenorSjon]

Charles will pull a Raikkonen 2007.

For that, he need a 2 DNF for Max, 1 for Lando, and finish every remaining races 1 or 2.

Leclerc had a race winning car at every race since Monza, himself and the team were idiotic at Baku, they learn from it, so I believe in him.

He will deliver

 

There will be more Baku and USA Sprint happening to Leclerc.

Edited by SenorSjon, 21 October 2024 - 13:15.

[Leibowitz]

Miniscule chances that Charles wins the championship, but WCC is definitely in play for Ferrari.

[DeKnyff]

Charles will pull a Raikkonen 2007.

For that, he need a 2 DNF for Max, 1 for Lando, and finish every remaining races 1 or 2.

Leclerc had a race winning car at every race since Monza, himself and the team were idiotic at Baku, they learn from it, so I believe in him.

He will deliver 😌

 

Leclerc is in a much more difficult situation than Räikkönen was in 2007.

 

With five races to go, Räikkönen was 16 points behind, which are equivalent to 40 points in current scoring system. Leclerc is now 79 points behind, nearly twice the difference of 2007.

 

Don't be fooled by the percentage of points, there are much more races now and virtually no DNFs, so everybody has more points and the ratio of points in terms of quotient tends to equalize. In mathematical terms, when n → ∞, with n being the number of races, r → 1, with r being the ratio of points between the runner-up and the winner.

[KavB]

I would love Leclerc to be in the fight but he is too far back and there are too few races left. Those three races with no scores right after Monaco really damaged his season, and without it I think he would be able to close the gap to Max. I think he will take P2 in the championship. 

 

Norris is actually pretty fortunate that Leclerc is on strong form, because he can take big chunks out of Max's lead if Charles is in between them. He has the car to be in front of Leclerc at nearly every race. 

[SenorSjon]

 

Back then it was still 60 points available, 85% of the no1. Not even 2 victories behind.

Now it is 146 available 44% of no1 and more than 3 victories behind.

[Spillage]

The only way it's close is if Verstappen has a DNF. Even then I'm not sure Norris is consistent enough to get it done. The points gap is actually larger now than it was after Miami.

[Nathan]

At the moment, Lando doesn't have what it takes

[PayasYouRace]

The only way it's close is if Verstappen has a DNF. Even then I'm not sure Norris is consistent enough to get it done. The points gap is actually larger now than it was after Miami.

Two DNFs, I’d say. The gap has been around 50 points since Miami. That’s two wins worth.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Charles winning the WDC from here would cap off a pretty unexpected epic season.

 

Reality though, Max wins from here. If Norris was smashing out the wins with Max finishing P2 or 3 every race, you could have some hope for a Max DNF and Norris having a big points swing, but it just looks unlikely. Max is always in and around the podium and Norris is sporadic. 

 

It could be potentially pretty close at the end, though. I wouldn't be surprised if we went into the final race with the championship still in the balance (albeit with Norris needing a win and Max needing to finish out of the points, or something like that...).

[DeKnyff]

I would love Leclerc to be in the fight but he is too far back and there are too few races left. Those three races with no scores right after Monaco really damaged his season, and without it I think he would be able to close the gap to Max. I think he will take P2 in the championship. 

 

Norris is actually pretty fortunate that Leclerc is on strong form, because he can take big chunks out of Max's lead if Charles is in between them. He has the car to be in front of Leclerc at nearly every race. 

 

Not sure, Leclerc is also beating Norris. And for Norris Championship bid, only good result is a win with Piastri finishing second, otherwise he won't make big cuts on Verstappen's advantage.

[noikeee]

I'm surprised Max is only at a 93% in the poll.

Look I was in the camp of "hmmm perhaps Lando does have an outside chance", against a good chunk of the forum. But that was several races back. As soon as the McLaren stops being dominant that **** just isn't happening. And the races just keep ticking. It's 5 from the end now (+ 2 sprints), Lando isn't any closer, the car isn't dominant anymore, there's one more team in the mix and in the wrong place as they're stealing McLaren points too not just Red Bull, and he still needs two entire race wins worth of points. Unless a meteor falls on Max's car twice, this ain't happening guys.

[PayasYouRace]

Not sure, Leclerc is also beating Norris. And for Norris Championship bid, only good result is a win with Piastri finishing second, otherwise he won't make big cuts on Verstappen's advantage.

This is exactly why I said it was over in May (or whenever that thread with the poll was put up). Norris was over two wins behind (56 points after Monaco, as you say), and the season was already looking to be as competitive as it has turned out to be. It might have seemed like he needed a mere 3 points per race or whatever, but in reality with four teams able to fight for wins, even that was going to be hard. Red Bulk hasn’t ever dropped that far this season, and Ferrar and Mercedes have been there to take points away.

[mclarensmps]

It's going to be Max, I don't think it was ever up for debate. It was fun to watch Lando give it a shot, but realistically, he didn't have much of a chance. 

[Dalton007]

I'm surprised Max is only at a 93% in the poll.

Look I was in the camp of "hmmm perhaps Lando does have an outside chance", against a good chunk of the forum. But that was several races back. As soon as the McLaren stops being dominant that **** just isn't happening. And the races just keep ticking. It's 5 from the end now (+ 2 sprints), Lando isn't any closer, the car isn't dominant anymore, there's one more team in the mix and in the wrong place as they're stealing McLaren points too not just Red Bull, and he still needs two entire race wins worth of points. Unless a meteor falls on Max's car twice, this ain't happening guys.

 

Lando not being ruthless enough. The car is still capable of wins, he just makes too many mistakes or mis-judges. The start was a prime example of Lando not quite at the races.

[Heyli]

If Max doesnt win, then I'd definitely want it to be Leclerc.

 

Last weekend was a good development for Max and dramatically reduced Norris chances in my book, but before Sunday I was hoping it would look even better.

 

Still will not jump to conclusions too quickly. Every weekend the order seems to be a different one! Looking forward to next weekend already.

[jonklug]

Damn only 3 people voted for Lando. Man that's rough 

[1player]

Damn only 3 people voted for Lando. Man that's rough

Lando could do it in 2025 if McLaren starts the year the right way. I believe he's got what it takes to be a champion, but this season there's been too many mistakes and missed opportunities so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Max win it this season

Edited by 1player, 21 October 2024 - 15:06.

[FortiFord]

Damn only 3 people voted for Lando. Man that's rough

You’re only as good as your last race 🙂