The standings after Brazil:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Costaz 1991 73 2) Brawn BGP 001 1967 77 3) LB 1924 87 4) scheivlak 1906 87 5) ANF 1889 89 6) Bleu 1876 87 7) Benchulo 1854 72 8) mark f1 1852 72 9) GTA 1841 75 10) LolaB8060 1837 72 11) KWSN-DSM 1835 79 12) Makarias 1820 69 13) DutchQuicksilver 1817 77 14) Anderis 1809 76 15) sladealonso 1785 87 16) polesetter1 1782 52 17) SpaceHorseParty 1781 47 18) M2000-5 1775 77Higher scores than usual this late in the season thanks to the surprising midfielders.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Bear INF,8 700,0 18 Cola INF,8 500,0 18 Hülk 446,0 175,0 18 Magn 295,9 60,0 17 Pias 151,3 97,6 17 Norr 146,3 100,7 18 Lecl 102,2 81,6 10 Sain 100,0 69,0 10 Russ 92,3 66,5 4 Hami 82,4 70,6 0 Laws 81,8 8,7 15 Vers 72,3 58,7 1 Ocon 71,0 34,8 3 Gasl 69,1 36,4 4 Tsun 66,9 37,5 2 Pere 56,6 44,2 2 Albo 45,3 21,1 2 Stro 43,9 19,0 1 Alon 42,8 25,7 1 Ricc 12,1 6,5 0Lando Norris becomes a 100% surprise! Charles Leclerc beats his expectation value!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Ocon Gasly Russell Leclerc M2000-5 600 * Potential 98 * Potential 99 polesetter1 265 * Potential 354 LolaB8060 590 mark f1 65 mark f1 65 * Potential 252 Benchulo 341 SpaceHorseParty 550 KWSN-DSM 50 scheivlak 52 ANF 244 Bleu 331 Makarias 535 scheivlak 49 KWSN-DSM 50 Anderis 213 * Forecast 319 Anderis 525 LolaB8060 46 LolaB8060 45 Bleu 207 GTA 315 DutchQuicksilver525 LB 39 ANF 43 * Forecast 202 ANF 292 GTA 510 ANF 38 LB 42 mark f1 200 sladealonso 290 LB 506 DutchQuicksilver 37 DutchQuicksilver 41 sladealonso 200 scheivlak 289 sladealonso 502 GTA 32 GTA 40 KWSN-DSM 190 Brawn BGP 001 283 mark f1 494 Anderis 30 Bleu 38 SpaceHorseParty 190 LB 279 scheivlak 466 Bleu 30 Brawn BGP 001 33 Benchulo 183 * Current 279 ANF 458 Benchulo 29 Benchulo 29 DutchQuicksilver183 Anderis 274 Costaz 454 M2000-5 29 sladealonso 28 LB 182 mark f1 270 KWSN-DSM 450 Brawn BGP 001 26 M2000-5 27 scheivlak 182 Costaz 265 Brawn BGP 001 449 * Forecast 26 * Forecast 27 M2000-5 180 KWSN-DSM 250 * Potential 428 Costaz 25 Anderis 25 Makarias 179 DutchQuicksilver246 polesetter1 427 sladealonso 25 * Current 24 * Current 177 Makarias 246 Bleu 415 * Current 23 Costaz 23 LolaB8060 172 polesetter1 245 * Forecast 403 Makarias 18 Makarias 21 Brawn BGP 001 167 SpaceHorseParty 243 * Current 353 SpaceHorseParty 8 polesetter1 15 GTA 158 M2000-5 232 Benchulo 336 polesetter1 7 SpaceHorseParty 8 Costaz 156 LolaB8060 225The majority of players still have plenty of unscored points left from the Alpines, but a repeat of the Brazil result feels unlikely. Maybe it will rain in Qatar.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Norris Tsunoda Piastri Lawson Hamilton * Potential 379 * Potential 102 * Potential 318 * Potential 79 * Potential 250 * Forecast 347 polesetter1 71 * Forecast 278 ANF 45 polesetter1 247 * Current 304 sladealonso 65 Costaz 248 Benchulo 38 ANF 243 Costaz 301 Benchulo 59 * Current 243 KWSN-DSM 5 SpaceHorseParty 240 Brawn BGP 001 263 Brawn BGP 001 56 ANF 239 * Forecast 5 mark f1 230 ANF 241 M2000-5 55 Brawn BGP 001 185 * Current 4 M2000-5 222 LB 220 ANF 50 LB 174 Anderis 0 Costaz 221 Makarias 211 Makarias 42 scheivlak 174 Bleu 0 Bleu 215 LolaB8060 210 KWSN-DSM 40 Benchulo 172 Brawn BGP 001 0 sladealonso 215 Benchulo 209 LolaB8060 40 LolaB8060 170 Costaz 0 Anderis 213 GTA 205 LB 36 polesetter1 163 DutchQuicksilver 0 DutchQuicksilver212 DutchQuicksilver201 scheivlak 36 SpaceHorseParty 160 GTA 0 Makarias 210 scheivlak 200 GTA 33 KWSN-DSM 150 LB 0 GTA 207 Bleu 195 * Forecast 31 mark f1 150 LolaB8060 0 * Forecast 200 polesetter1 191 SpaceHorseParty 30 Bleu 148 M2000-5 0 Benchulo 200 mark f1 190 DutchQuicksilver 28 DutchQuicksilver138 Makarias 0 Brawn BGP 001 200 SpaceHorseParty 190 Bleu 27 M2000-5 138 mark f1 0 KWSN-DSM 200 M2000-5 188 Costaz 27 Makarias 136 polesetter1 0 LolaB8060 188 KWSN-DSM 185 * Current 27 GTA 131 scheivlak 0 LB 180 Anderis 180 mark f1 20 Anderis 115 sladealonso 0 scheivlak 180 sladealonso 160 Anderis 12 sladealonso 100 SpaceHorseParty 0 * Current 175Piastri needs a P7 to beat Costaz' guess. After two straight P8 finishes, he's making things unnecessarily dramatic.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Costaz 2096,9 25,9 Brawn BGP 001 2091,0 38,4 Bleu 2089,0 13,8 LB 2029,3 38,7 scheivlak 2029,3 38,7 GTA 2028,7 23,1 ANF 2025,3 45,5 mark f1 1991,4 26,2 KWSN-DSM 1970,6 40,2 Benchulo 1959,9 34,9 Anderis 1959,3 26,1 polesetter1 1947,1 -8,1 LolaB8060 1945,3 38,7 sladealonso 1943,0 30,6 DutchQuicksilver 1940,4 27,0 Makarias 1935,6 15,2 SpaceHorseParty 1906,7 -5,9 M2000-5 1896,1 30,1Costaz returns to the forecast lead! Bleu drops from first to third!
