146 replies to this topic

[KPower]

I think Ferrari is going to learn the hell that is managing two passive aggressive drivers 

No, no, everything will be blue skies and roses. 

 

If Lewis is behind with the faster car, I'm sure he will stay behind Leclerc and let him have the podium/win. I'm sure of it. He knows he's not the Predestined. Call him Lewis Irvine or Rubens Hamilton.   

Edited by KPower, 27 November 2024 - 02:10.

[Alexis*27]

I don't know how you can vote for anyone other than Verstappen. Remember, the question is who the favorite is, not who will have a shot at the title or who you'd like to win it. Verstappen managed to outscore his direct opponents since Miami even when the car became 2nd best and at times 3rd best (plus 1 clear race of being 4th best - Monza). The guy is a 4 time WDC now, just 27 years old and has proven he can squeeze every ounce of performance out of a troublesome car. So RedBull don't need to be fastest next year for Verstappen to still win the title. But also, RedBull have every chance of creating a very strong package for next year. They'll have more CFD time than before, and if they have correctly identified the issues with this year's car and fix that for next year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them start the season at the front once more.

 

So the objective answer has to be Verstappen imho. The other teams and leading drivers might be in the mix of course, or even favorites, but as it stands Verstappen has to be seen as favorite. And while I haven't checked odds on any sports betting website, I will expect the bookmakers to give Verstappen the edge as well. 

Well, gambling is predicting the future. That is one possible scenario out of many, as demonstrated by your use of the word "if".

Odds wise, it is arguable that McLaren are equally likely to have a quicker car out of the box instead of a few races in because of momentum.

That's what makes next year possibly the best for years.

[Risil]

You'd have to be an idiot to bet against Max. So I'm betting on Lewis.

[Gravelngrass]

No, no, everything will be blue skies and roses.

If Lewis is behind with the faster car, I'm sure he will stay behind Leclerc and let him have the podium/win. I'm sure of it. He knows he's not the Predestined. Call him Lewis Irvine or Rubens Hamilton.

How about Lewis Bottas?

[KPower]

How about Lewis Bottas?

 

Has a solid ring but I wanted to keep it Ferrari centric.

 

Either way, I'm sure he will be the well-behaved and supplicant number 2 fans of a certain driver have always dreamed of having. 

[jonklug]

Well, gambling is predicting the future. That is one possible scenario out of many, as demonstrated by your use of the word "if".

Odds wise, it is arguable that McLaren are equally likely to have a quicker car out of the box instead of a few races in because of momentum.

That's what makes next year possibly the best for years.

 

I don't disagree. All I'm saying is if say McLaren have the best car and RedBull are close by, it's still Verstappen who is favorite, for obvious reasons. This does not mean McLaren and Lando can't win it of course. 

[PrinceBira]

I don't disagree. All I'm saying is if say McLaren have the best car and RedBull are close by, it's still Verstappen who is favorite, for obvious reasons. This does not mean McLaren and Lando can't win it of course.

I think Lando cán make a step from this year into 2025. He has the raw speed and race craft, but seemed to be a bit hesitant in decision making in key moments. It’s easier to iron that out than to gain more raw speed (drivers rarely become faster).

If the cars are equal, he has a better shot at winning than he had this year.

[frosty125]

The top 4 teams could all be capable of producing a car good enough I think it’s really hard to predict. If I had to put money on it I would go Lando.

[lewislorenzo]

The top 4 teams could all be capable of producing a car good enough I think it’s really hard to predict. If I had to put money on it I would go Lando.

Merc aren’t😂

[Alfisti]

Russell is the sleeper. He will likely give antonelli a beat down so has all the focus on himself unlike the Ferrari and mclaren drivers. This assumes Mercedes understand their car, I am still not sold that they do.

[Taxi]

RB only needs to produce a car that is no more than 0,1-0,2 slower. Max will do the rest. 

[JeePee]

That is because Perez is awful…how many times does this have to be repeated. Jheeze.

As if no champion of the past 42 years has had a teammate as bad as Perez. And Sergio was still a very respected rider before being teamed with Max, just read the topic when he got signed.

[Dutchrudder]

Russell is the sleeper. He will likely give antonelli a beat down so has all the focus on himself unlike the Ferrari and mclaren drivers. This assumes Mercedes understand their car, I am still not sold that they do.

I’ll be interested to see if the changes to the plank rule has lead to the rest of them raising their ride heights and that suiting Mercedes down to the ground, or was Las Vegas down to some other track specific reason?

Still have half a suspicion that Red Bull has been sandbagging for tunnel time in the season heading towards new regs, and they may be back to strong form next year.

[Reinmuster]

if the car's performance somehow converge and on par between Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes, I vote for Max Ver5tappen.

 

He also demonstrates that he would win in difficult car and in difficult situations,

[CoolBreeze]

Shaaarl. If Ferrari gets everything right.

[lewislorenzo]

As if no champion of the past 42 years has had a teammate as bad as Perez.

Perez is the worst 49 points since Miami shocking😂

The guy has beat Max like 4x in 4 years on merit. Talk about an easy ride and no threat.

Yes Max is currently the best on the grid but Perez flatters that with his embarrassing performances.

Struggling to think of anyone worse in recent history in a top car.

Edited by lewislorenzo, 28 November 2024 - 08:28.

[PayasYouRace]

As if no champion of the past 42 years has had a teammate as bad as Perez. And Sergio was still a very respected rider before being teamed with Max, just read the topic when he got signed.

You sure about that?

I did the hard work and looked at every world champion's teammates and how close they scored to them in their championship seasons.

Here are the top 69 with Checo highlighted (plus forum favourites Coulthard and Herbert.





There are 152 in total and things start getting messier from 70 onwards as you're dealing with a lot of one-off teammates and I didn't even bother with Fangio's Maserati teammates in 1954 as Fangio had enough dropped scores that his Maserati scores could have been dropped entirely.

I've included the % of starts of the champion to cover this sort of stuff. Interestingly on Carlos Reutemann in 1977 and Valtteri Bottas in 2020 started more races than their teammates.

2024 is in Italic as there are still races to go.

[SenorSjon]

You sure about that?
 

 

He got another point last week. 152/403=37.7% now

[PayasYouRace]

I might update that spreadsheet at season’s end, if I remember.

[SenorSjon]

I might update that spreadsheet at season’s end, if I remember.

 

We'll make sure you do 

 

Edit

212/403=52,6% is the max achievable for Perez if we do reverse results in stead of starts.

Edited by SenorSjon, 28 November 2024 - 11:42.

[noikeee]

Russell is the sleeper. He will likely give antonelli a beat down so has all the focus on himself unlike the Ferrari and mclaren drivers. This assumes Mercedes understand their car, I am still not sold that they do.

I'm surprised he's got as few votes as he does. I think the explanation is a lot of people think he's in the mix but not the main favourite. Mercedes haven't been consistent enough for people to be confident in them.

[Beri]

Who I think is favourite: Verstappen

Who I hope will be champion: Hamilton

Who would wet my bed if he's crowned champion: Either Williams driver

[PayasYouRace]

We'll make sure you do

Edit
212/403=52,6% is the max achievable for Perez if we do reverse results in stead of starts.

What do you mean by “reverse results instead of starts”?

[Gravelngrass]

Either way, I'm sure he will be the well-behaved and supplicant number 2 fans of a certain driver have always dreamed of having.

That could be a number of different fan bases.

[KPower]

That could be a number of different fan bases.

 

At Ferrari? Oh no, just one.  

[Gravelngrass]

At Ferrari? Oh no, just one.

Haha you didn’t specify Ferrari but that could actually be both drivers’ fan bases. Ham’s weren’t that sad when Bottas was the taillgunner and Ham himself pretty much lobbied to have him renewed…
OTOH, have Lec’s fans been very vocal about an easy No. 2? Honestly, I haven’t been very aware of that (not that I have cared a lot either though)…

[vlado]

Hopefully we get some sort of variation of this:

Since Miami



Since summer break

[JordanIreland]

Who voted for Sergio Perez? He is only kept at RB because of the big money he brings. He does not have the ability to be a world champion.

[Rjpscr]

I'm going with Lewis. If there were racing god's they would have Lewis get his 8th in his first year in a Ferrari. 

Edited by Rjpscr, 29 November 2024 - 02:16.

[Albaforever]

I'm going with Lando.

[lewislorenzo]

I'm going with Lewis. If there were racing god's they would have Lewis get his 8th in his first year in a Ferrari.

It would be full circle for Lewis in a Ferrari to win his 8th and their first WDC in 18 years vs Mclaren with a teammate who the majority think he will play second fiddle too. It would be poetic

[Taxi]

I think it can be a variation of that post summer break table. Leclerc and Norris at the front, Max dragging the RB to top 3 just in front of the second Mclaren or Ferrari. 

Edited by Taxi, 29 November 2024 - 08:11.

[Brian60]

My heart says Lewis, my head says likely Max. However Red Bull seems to be in dissarray behind the scenes together with losing their designer, so it could be an outsider like George or Lando. I know that LeClerc is supposed to be Ferraris No1, but if Lewis is ahead in the points after a couple of races that could change. Ferrari want that WCC/WDC championship, they are not bothered who gets it for them.

[jonklug]

Zak accepts defeat.

https://www.racefans...mclarens-brown/

[danmills]

I voted Piastri but I have a feeling Mr Anonymous and always there Charles will take it vs Lewis and Russell in a three way finale season of mixed wins like this year capitalising on the focus for 2026, driver wars at McLaren and a downward spiralling Red Bull and more Lando Max crashes.

[mclara]

Zak accepts defeat.

https://www.racefans...mclarens-brown/

3rd fastest car can be the fastest car the next weekend currently in f1. Mercedes is a good example of that

[vlado]

[garoidb]

 

The Ferrari drivers and McLaren drivers have equal combined scores in that table. 

[Dan333SP]

I think Mercedes is gonna have the best car in 2025 and George Russell is gonna win it. George Really deserves to become champion.

 

I kinda feel the same, and I think this forum is wildly underrating his chances if the current votes are any indication. 16% of voters think Lewis in a Ferrari is a more likely champion than George (3%)? I just have a feeling merc are going to get it right next year. 

[Dan333SP]

For least likely but most exciting, what if Newey has enough influence to build a stunner of an Aston and Lewis regains his form in a fast Ferrari so we suddenly have a Max/Fred/Lewis battle for the title? Netflix would sh!t themselves. 

[andysaint]

I think we will see different teams winning different races. I don’t see anyone dominating or winning lots. The winning team/driver will end up being the most consistent one.

Red Bull with Max are seemingly winning or in the mid top 10. I don’t think they will be as strong as this year and their consistency has been poor.

Ferrari to me have lacked outright pace at times this year but have been picking up podiums. They’ve got to work better as a team but with their consistency, if they can get the car to the absolute front more often I think they will be favourite.

McLaren have been quick but have made a lot of mistakes this year. They’ve seemed relative amateurish at times. Still I think they will win the WCC. They need a big reset to cut out the mistakes but I fear they will still be a bit naive. Le Clerc and Hamilton are stronger than Norris and Piastri IMO.

Mercedes have either won or been no where but George has improved. Kimi will be the weak point and George will have to take on a lot more. I still don’t think his race pace is enough and I think Mercedes are still behind the other teams in their car development having wasted 2022 and 2023 with a duff car.

I reckon Ferrari will be the team and drivers to beat. They seem to have more as a team than the others

[JimmyClark]

It has to be Max. if there cars are as close as expected, over 24 races the driver will make the difference. And by far the best and most consistent is Max. 

 

For another driver to win, their car will have to be 0.2s+ faster *consistently* across the whole season, and I just can't see that happening.

 

The constructors' will be a lot harder to predict though. 

[Lazy]

So we're all on the hangover of Max's 4th consecutive title, conquered with 2 races to go, and it's dawned on me that... Despite all this dominance he might not be anymore the overwhelming favourite for next season? Red Bull have been on a downhill slope since before the summer and have hardly ever been the fastest car again, and they have lost their chief designer.

This would probably make Max lose the favourite status for next season, yet is anyone actually emerging to fill this void? McLaren have been the most consistent yet have still had off weekends like Vegas, and have had their drivers and the team itself, constantly trip on themselves and waste their chances. The season also ends with a strong run from Ferrari, still fighting for the constructors championship, and soon to have a truly remarkable driver lineup - but Mercedes are not outside this fight neither, having just literally dominated the last race.

I think I'm just barely leaning towards voting for Charles in this poll, but there is an element of wishful thinking on it as he's my favourite driver of the list and it's by no means a clear favouritism at all, furthermore he'll have one of the greatest drivers of all time as teammate. George, Lando and Lewis all seem strong contenders, and nobody in their right mind would count out Max just yet, he can do it even if Red Bull don't quite manage to fully bounce back, and they could fully bounce back! Oscar seems more like an outside chance but not very likely, Antonelli would need a combination of miracles, and I'm including Perez just out of courtesy. As of today, late November 2024, who's your pick, what's your best guess?

True that Lando and McLaren have made a lot of unforced errors this season but I think that's been true of many  teams pre-domination. Most recently Mercedes and RedBull. There's a good chance that they've got all the pieces in place now and can push on next year.

Edited by Lazy, 03 December 2024 - 11:47.

[vlado]

It has to be Max.

Doesn’t have to be him but he will be challenging for it for sure and might win by a small margin, that is if the top cars are as close in performance as they are currently.

If we go back to him having a massive car advantage, then yes, it will have to be him.

[JimmyClark]

Doesn’t have to be him but he will be challenging for it for sure and might win by a small margin, that is if the top cars are as close in performance as they are currently.

If we go back to him having a massive car advantage, then yes, it will have to be him.

 

But he's not had a car advantage for the vast majority of races since Miami, and if you look at the points since then (ignoring Miami and before):

 

VER - 293

NOR - 266

PIA - 250

LEC - 243

RUS - 198

SAI - 189

HAM - 184

PER - 49

 

So it stands to reason that if the fight is as close as we expect, Max will simply come out on top due to his superior consistency. And to be honest this year there's probably been an element of relying on his early season points haul, and not attacking too much. 

 

It will be a lot closer, but I just can't look past him.

[vlado]

It will be a lot closer, but I just can't look past him.

Of course not, he will certainly be a challenger, but IF the cars are close, the fight will also be close.

Why did you ignore the points from Miami?

We have to account for NOR underperforming massively this season and again, if McLaren maintain their slight advantage and consistency, if I had to pick a favorite it would be him.

[JimmyClark]

Of course not, he will certainly be a challenger, but IF the cars are close, the fight will also be close.

Why did you ignore the points from Miami?

We have to account for NOR underperforming massively this season and again, if McLaren maintain their slight advantage and consistency, if I had to pick a favorite it would be him.

Because it was after Miami it was apparent the car had issues, but even if I had included it it wouldn't have changed much.