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Guess the Pole 2024: Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 30 November 2024 - 19:18

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500

The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:

Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2024 standings
 

Five latest poles at Abu Dhabi:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2023  Verstappen    83.445
2022  Verstappen    83.824
2021  Verstappen    82.109
2020  Verstappen    95.246 (Old layout)
2019  Hamilton      94.779

Driver values:
Dri  val
Russ   6
Vers   6
Norr   9
Sain   9
REST  18

2024 data:
                  Time    2023 PP  2022 PP  2021 PP  2024/2023  2024/2022  2024/2021
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH  Vers  Lecl   89.179   89.708   90.558   88.997    99.410     98.477    100.205
SAU  Vers  Lecl   87.472   88.265   88.200   87.511    99.102     99.175     99.955
OZ   Vers  Sain   75.915   76.732   77.868   ------    98.935     97.492     ------
JPN  Vers  Pere   88.197   88.877   89.304   ------    99.235     98.760     ------
CHN  Vers  Pere   93.660   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
MIA  Vers  Lecl   87.241   86.841   88.796   ------   100.461     98.249     ------
EMI  Vers  Pias   74.746   ------   87.999   74.411    ------     84.940    100.450
MON  Lecl  Pias   70.270   71.365   71.376   70.346    98.466     98.450     99.892
CAN  Russ  Vers   72.000   85.858   81.399   ------    83.859     88.453     ------
ESP  Norr  Vers   71.383   72.272   78.750   76.741    98.770     90.645     93.018
AUT  Vers  Norr   64.314   64.391   64.984   63.720    99.880     98.969    100.932
GB   Russ  Hami   85.819   86.720  100.983   86.134    98.961     84.984     99.634
HUN  Norr  Pias   75.227   76.609   77.377   75.419    98.196     97.221     99.745
BEL  Lecl  Pere  113.754  106.988  104.297  119.765   106.324    109.067     94.981
NED  Norr  Vers   69.673   70.567   70.342   68.885    98.733     99.049    101.144
ITA  Norr  Pias   79.327   80.294   80.161   79.651    98.796     98.960     99.593
AZE  Lecl  Pias  101.365  100.203  101.359  101.218   101.160    100.006    100.145
SIN  Norr  Vers   89.525   90.984  109.412   ------    98.396     81.824     ------
USA  Norr  Vers   92.330   94.723   94.356   92.910    97.474     97.853     99.376
MEX  Sain  Vers   75.946   77.166   77.775   75.875    98.419     97.648    100.094
BRA  Norr  Russ   83.405   70.727   71.674   68.372   117.925    116.367    121.987
LVE  Russ  Sain   92.312   92.726   ------   ------    99.554     ------     ------
QAT  Vers  Russ   80.520   83.778   ------   80.827    96.111     ------     99.620
ABU                    0   83.445   83.824   82.109                                

My guess for Abu Dhabi is 81.925 s by George Russell.


Edited by Makarias, 30 November 2024 - 19:19.


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#2 Makarias

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Posted 30 November 2024 - 19:22

The top five overall right now are all contenders and might want to keep their guesses secret from the others. As I am one of the top five I don't know exactly who should get the secret guesses, but I suggest a PM to scheivlak should do the trick. Sixth overall and has been handed a lot of titles over the years by me, time to put in some effort here dude!



#3 Makarias

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Posted 30 November 2024 - 19:25

Brawny in fifth is in a position battle with scheivlak, and might instead prefer a PM guess to KWSN-DSM who is a New York Giants fan and thus used to a bit of suffering.



#4 rodlamas

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Posted 01 December 2024 - 22:42

Max 81.888

#5 tourister46a

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Posted 02 December 2024 - 16:52

82.575 Norris


Edited by tourister46a, 05 December 2024 - 23:53.


#6 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 02 December 2024 - 16:59

82.111 - Verstappen



#7 Anderis

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Posted 03 December 2024 - 16:09

I sent my guess to scheivlak.



#8 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 04 December 2024 - 18:09

82.526 Verstappen

#9 mark f1

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Posted 05 December 2024 - 10:26

Verstappen 82.690



#10 scheivlak

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Posted 05 December 2024 - 19:00

Charles Leclerc 82.573



#11 milestone 11

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Posted 05 December 2024 - 21:20

82:100 Verstappen.

#12 GTA

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Posted 05 December 2024 - 21:58

82.888 Charles

#13 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 02:48

82.382 Norris



#14 Bleu

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 08:35

81,288 Norris



#15 M2000-5

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 08:41

82.635 Norris


Edited by M2000-5, 06 December 2024 - 08:44.


#16 brunopascal

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 08:55

81.650 Sainz



#17 Anderis

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 09:36

The guess I sent to scheivlak was:
82.300 Norris



#18 Makarias

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Posted 06 December 2024 - 11:29

Contender summary:

 

Anderis 82.300 Norr

Makarias 81.925 Russ

tourister46a 82.575 Norr

milestone11 82.100 Vers

Brawn BGP 001 82.382 Norr

 

Brawny is out of the title race with that, Anderis is way ahead with a very similar guess. The rest of us all have a shot, and even the driver guesses might make the difference in the end.