68 replies to this topic

[JimmyClark]

I think Hamilton is progressing into 2nd Schumacher territory. Age catches one with you eventually, just like with Schumacher at Mercedes.

 

Yes, the big worry with him is that with many saying he's struggled to adapt to the 2022+ era of cars, then how will he adapt to a new team, a new entire way of working/culture, new car/engine philosophies? So he could be anything between 6 and 9, if you're rating him for next year. It's a big unknown. 

[Larunss]

2025 unlike 2024 will be exciting with all the new partnerships. I feel like in each team for atleast 1 if not both of the drivers the upcoming season will be pretty decisive.

1.Ferrari - strongest on paper. But lets see, Lewis will want to bounce back after what was a disappointing 2024...
2. McLaren - very solid lineup, but to me 2025 is a big year for Piastri. Needs to make a step-up, he's got the experience now so lets see if the extra tenth is there.
3. Red Bull - It may be a 1 driver team, but Max alone can do a lot. Whoever gets tne 2nd seat will have a tough year...
4. Williams - Very solid lineup for a lower midfield team. Crucial year for Albon, first proper teammate since Max...
5. Mercedes - Solid lineup, bit depends how well Antonelli adapts. Interesting shift of dynamics. Russel will change the role from the young challenger to the established leader. Can he step it up?
6. Aston - Can Fernando keep motivation if its another year trundling around the midfield? Stroll is uninspiring but may not be the worst on grid.
7. Sauber-Haas-Toro Rosso-Alpine
I find it hard to separate these. Each of them will have an established leader in a solid midfielder (Hulk, Ocon, Tsunoda, Gasly) and a newcomer. I dont think there is much in between them. On paper Doohan seems to be the weakest link in the chain but lets see. Could be the end of career for any of these established midfielders if one of the rookies start beating them...

Edited by Larunss, 16 December 2024 - 10:23.

[Alexis*27]

I think Hamilton is progressing into 2nd Schumacher territory. Age catches one with you eventually, just like with Schumacher at Mercedes.

In what specific ways though? 

"GrandPrix.com identified the inherent understeer of the Mercedes car, exacerbated by the narrower front tyres introduced for the 2010 season, as contributing to Schumacher's difficulties.^[248] Jenson Button would later claim that Mercedes's car was designed for him, as he would initially drive for the team, and that their differing driving styles may have contributed to Schumacher's difficulties"

 

"Schumacher's indecision over his future plans led to him being replaced by Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes for the 2013 season"

 

I think motivation is the key. Schumacher was cheesed off in 2006, and indecisive in 2012, whereas Hamilton seems to be hungry for the foreseeable. 

https://medicalxpres...ain-doesnt.html

[cyclist]

2025 unlike 2024 will be exciting with all the new partnerships. I feel like in each team for atleast 1 if not both of the drivers the upcoming season will be pretty decisive.

1.Ferrari - strongest on paper. But lets see, Lewis will want to bounce back after what was a disappointing 2024...
2. McLaren - very solid lineup, but to me 2025 is a big year for Piastri. Needs to make a step-up, he's got the experience now so lets see if the extra tenth is there.
3. Red Bull - It may be a 1 driver team, but Max alone can do a lot. Whoever gets tne 2nd seat will have a tough year...
4. Williams - Very solid lineup for a lower midfield team. Crucial year for Albon, first proper teammate since Max...
5. Mercedes - Solid lineup, bit depends how well Antonelli adapts. Interesting shift of dynamics. Russel will change the role from the young challenger to the established leader. Can he step it up?
6. Aston - Can Fernando keep motivation if its another year trundling around the midfield? Stroll is uninspiring but may not be the worst on grid.
7. Sauber-Haas-Toro Rosso-Alpine
I find it hard to separate these. Each of them will have an established leader in a solid midfielder (Hulk, Ocon, Tsunoda, Gasly) and a newcomer. I dont think there is much in between them. On paper Doohan seems to be the weakest link in the chain but lets see. Could be the end of career for any of these established midfielders if one of the rookies start beating them...

I think Albon will get trounced actually. He is a decent driver, but with Sainz coming in with all his experience and speed and political skills, he will fade into the background I fear. I think Sainz is extremely motivated to redeam himself and I think he will be able to build the team around him. Albon is too nice and too passive to really put much against him. He has the speed but lacks the mentality.

[RedRabbit]

This is one reason why there are still doubts about Norris. It took him two years to not establish himself over Sainz.

I also found it interesting that Piastri has been named as the weaker link in the McLaren line up while Norris blew several front row starts this year.

But anyway, the combo of Leclerc and Hamilton has to be easily the strongest. Even without Hamilton qualifying well, he has still moved forward in the races and mostly ended up either right behind or even ahead of Russell.

Charles has been mighty in a number of races this season and very consistent in the top 4. Sainz is widely regarded as having his best season yet, and there was still a string of races that were 12 - 2 in Charles favour.

[MKSixer]

In what specific ways though? 

"GrandPrix.com identified the inherent understeer of the Mercedes car, exacerbated by the narrower front tyres introduced for the 2010 season, as contributing to Schumacher's difficulties.^[248] Jenson Button would later claim that Mercedes's car was designed for him, as he would initially drive for the team, and that their differing driving styles may have contributed to Schumacher's difficulties"

 

"Schumacher's indecision over his future plans led to him being replaced by Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes for the 2013 season"

 

I think motivation is the key. Schumacher was cheesed off in 2006, and indecisive in 2012, whereas Hamilton seems to be hungry for the foreseeable. 

https://medicalxpres...ain-doesnt.html

I think this sums up, perfectly, the differences between MSC and Lewis. The motivation and actually seeking a new challenge rather than falling into one. Though others decry it, HAM has made perfect career moves, thus far. For those thinking otherwise, simply take a look at ALO.

[cyclist]

I think Hamilton and Schumachers situations are not that comparable. Besides them being of a similar age, Michael had three years outside of F1, he came into a new team with a team mate that was hard to gauge. Three years is a long time in F1 and he had issues with injuries in the meantime (which prevented a return in 2009 as Massas replacement). The team he entered into was also in a rebuiding fase under new ownership and the rules had changed quite a bit.

 

Hamilton has been inside of F1 competitively all these years. The years after 21 have been more difficult as the car was difficult to drive and Hamilton also had to deal with the 2021 debacle. He may not have the outright qualifying advantage which he seemed to have in the past, but perhaps this reputation is also built on the fact that he drove in the best car most of the time. When Rosberg was in the team both of them often shared the front row and even Bottas often managed to steal a pole of Hamilton. Perhaps he is not the qualifying master he is made out to be. For what it is worth, his race pace seems good and often better than Russell.

[Larunss]

I think Albon will get trounced actually. He is a decent driver, but with Sainz coming in with all his experience and speed and political skills, he will fade into the background I fear. I think Sainz is extremely motivated to redeam himself and I think he will be able to build the team around him. Albon is too nice and too passive to really put much against him. He has the speed but lacks the mentality.

I agree. Colapinto had some very strong showings against Albon. And Albon also quite heavily contributed to the Williams scrap metal bill. And Sainz is a very strong performer so I expect some very bad news for Albon.

But Sainz must avoid the Bottas/Kovalainen/Massa scenario so he's in a dangerous ppsition. Leaving a top team for midfield or backmarker teams...its risky because if the car is poor and even on a good day you are just P15, hard to impress.

Norris or Piastri the weaker link? The qualifying h2h is a pretty decisive Norris win with something like 20:4
Yes, Norris threw away more points, but still comfortably scored more than Piastri.

So as I said, big year for Piastri.

Regarding Lewis...quali seemed an issue, that was the first skill that departed Kimi. But Lewis still had multiple good recovery drives, so lets see. If both Lewis and Charles are on fire, should be some fireworks!

[messy]

I do wonder if Albon is your classic 'struggles against a top driver then looks heroic alongside a Latifi or a Sargeant' case. I think he's pretty good, but probably never the top five/six performer he was seen as in 2023. Which also gives me hope that the Williams was better in recent years than people realised and Sainz might be going into a much better gig than he thiought he was. 

[JimmyClark]

I think Hamilton and Schumachers situations are not that comparable. Besides them being of a similar age, Michael had three years outside of F1, he came into a new team with a team mate that was hard to gauge. Three years is a long time in F1 and he had issues with injuries in the meantime (which prevented a return in 2009 as Massas replacement). The team he entered into was also in a rebuiding fase under new ownership and the rules had changed quite a bit.

 

 

I 100% agree with this. I do raise eyebrows when the two are compared at a similar age; it is completely different as you say. Also the cars changed so much between 2006 and 2010 (different aero, slick tyres, no refuelling, etc) and with much less advanced simulation tech than now, three years out was a long time. Not to mention the injuries as you say. 

 

Schumacher was much more competitive by 2012, but by then father time really was catching up properly. 

[BerniesDad]

When your #2 driver is a 7xWDC, then you know you have a strong driver line-up! 

[cyclist]

When your #2 driver is a 7xWDC, then you know you have a strong driver line-up! 

I still think Leclerc needs to up his game. He may have the speed but he is still not as consistent as a driver like Verstappen (or a Hamilton when he is on it). He also tends to get a bit downbeat when things ar not going his way and in his stint against Sainz he was often one-upped by him as Sainz played the game in a cleverer way, even if he was not as fast. His speed and race craft is beyond question, but I sometimes feel he is perhaps too emotional and not ruthless enough.

 

Hamilton will be very much fired up and I think he will be a different driver than the last few years. After the bang that was 2021 and the decline afterwards he lost quite a bit of motivation it seemed. He is a driver that really needs to be at the sharp end and then can deliver something extra. He will want to prove pretty quickly that he can match or better Leclerc.

 

Perhaps this will give Leclerc the boost he needs to reach that next level. Or it could go the other way, the two are head to head and he might feel that the team give preferred treatment to Hamilton or put him on a bad strategy. He seems to be a driver that is susceptible to these doubts and that might impact his performance.

 

It will be the best pairing next year and the most interesting.

Edited by cyclist, 16 December 2024 - 17:36.

[Gravelngrass]

One big question that won’t be answered until a few races of 2025 are done, is, was Ham’s form at Mercedes lately mostly due to lack of motivation/team shifting focus to Rus, or is there more of a physical decline? I know the <> comparisons are flawed but, having no other measures atm, if we know Rus beat Ham at Mercedes, it would probably be safe to say Lec can beat him as well. That notwithstanding, and if some consider Sai to be at least Rus level, is the Lec/Ham pairing really superior to the Lec/Sai one?

[Marklar]

I think Albon will get trounced actually. He is a decent driver, but with Sainz coming in with all his experience and speed and political skills, he will fade into the background I fear. I think Sainz is extremely motivated to redeam himself and I think he will be able to build the team around him. Albon is too nice and too passive to really put much against him. He has the speed but lacks the mentality.

I think Sainz is in danger after being many years underrated to be severely overrated. I am not making a prediction on how he will fare against Albon, because Sainz is a pretty sensitive driver so I can imagine many outcomes here, but he has been far more dominated by Leclerc than the common narrative would let you believe (that's where his PR/political skills helped him)

I 100% agree with this. I do raise eyebrows when the two are compared at a similar age; it is completely different as you say. Also the cars changed so much between 2006 and 2010 (different aero, slick tyres, no refuelling, etc) and with much less advanced simulation tech than now, three years out was a long time. Not to mention the injuries as you say. 
 
Schumacher was much more competitive by 2012, but by then father time really was catching up properly.

both Hulkenberg and Alonso have confirmed that a longer break helped them to eventually extend their careers (although I definitely think Alonso lost a level when he returned). There are always two sides of this coin, but I agree that Schumacher vs Hamilton have too many different variables to be compared. The valid comparison for Schumacher would be Alonso, if anything. Hamilton is a bit unique in the sense that he is having a pretty long career into his 40s without a break (can be good, but can also be bad). There is not much data to predict how this will go.

Edited by Marklar, 16 December 2024 - 22:32.

[HP]

It took three seasons for Verstappen to establish himself over Ricciardo, who was trounced by Norris who was beaten by Sainz who beat Leclerc the following year, who beat Vettel who was beaten by Ricciardo.

These kind of circle comparisons never work though.

 

In the long time of this forum there have been some pretty ridiculous comparisons come up. While the comparisons are valid observations at first glance, they simply don't work out that way.

 

Since the regulations don't change that much next year, it's all about how well all the teams implement next years car. And there will not be huge differences to this year. We will notice huge differences in 2026. Then I expect another round off ridiculous circle comparisons being achieved, all because the car characteristics changed too much.

 

The only drivers that can be somewhat reliably used as a measuring stick are multiple WDC's IMO.

[KWSN - DSM]

I am surprised over the margin with which Ferrari is favored over McLaren - I am not the biggest believer in Piastri being an up and coming second Norris, but I do consider him better than Hamilton this time of Hamilton's career.

[lewislorenzo]

I am surprised over the margin with which Ferrari is favored over McLaren - I am not the biggest believer in Piastri being an up and coming second Norris, but I do consider him better than Hamilton this time of Hamilton's career.

No surprise there

[Radion]

Qualy -> McLaren has the better pair.

Race -> Ferrari has the better pair.

[Marklar]

Qualy -> McLaren has the better pair.
Race -> Ferrari has the better pair.

it's closer in quali, but Piastri has been more awful *even* there than Hamilton this year. The sole reason why anyone considers Piastri's season as better is the better car bonus (plus that he is endlessly hyped, some really thought until a few races ago that he performs better than Norris) which so many can't tell apart for some reason

could be obviously different next year. it's a matter of predictions.

I wouldn't be shocked if Merc turns out to have the best quali pair. raw speed is not Antonelli's issue

edit: there is btw tons of recency bias when judging Hamilton's quali pace. until late summer they were fairly close (the h2h was obviously loopsided but the gaps were almost always tiny), the McLaren battle most of the time was not

Edited by Marklar, 17 December 2024 - 18:35.