63 replies to this topic

[F1Frog]

Ahead of a potentially very exciting season, who are you expecting to finish ahead in the championship in each team for 2025? Please just vote for one driver per team in the poll. Of the ten teams, only two have retained their 2024 lineups, but with so many rookies on the grid, I think a lot of the guesses are quite clear cut, but hopefully others will disagree.

[F1Frog]

My picks:

 

McLaren - Lando Norris.

Even if his racecraft is a bit weak, I just think he has that extra tenth over Piastri in both qualifying and the race, and that will prove crucial as that is the one thing that you can't really learn in F1. Only Verstappen is faster than Norris on the current grid, and with McLaren surely a good bet to have the best car again, Norris would be my early pick for the championship.

 

Ferrari - Charles Leclerc.

Probably the most interesting battle is at Ferrari, with Hamilton comfortably finishing ahead in the championship in similar cars in 2023, but although I think he will perform better than in his final Mercedes year, at this point in their careers I would back Leclerc to hold the edge. Hopefully 2024 was just a blip for Hamilton, rather than the start of a decline.

 

Red Bull - Max Verstappen.

The question here is more about whether Lawson can keep his seat, I expect another thrashing similar to Verstappen's last three teammate matchups. I suspect this could be Lawson's only season in the Red Bull. But I am really excited to watch Verstappen dragging the best out of a hopefully inferior car all season, could he take a historic championship victory in an inferior car?

 

Mercedes - George Russell.

Antonelli is being touted as a potential generational talent by many, and the very fact Mercedes want him in the car makes this another of the most fascinating lineups on the grid. But even if Antonelli is as good as they say, Russell is one of the very best at the moment, and so while I expect Antonelli to have some standout performances and wins, I think Russell will hold the edge over the season.

 

Aston Martin - Fernando Alonso.

One of only two retained lineups, and this one has been quite straightforward for the last two years. Even if Alonso is declining, it is highly unlikely his level drops to the point that Stroll can beat him, and with Adrian Newey potentially designing a better car than the last one, Alonso's motivation could go up as well. But I do suspect that the Aston Martin may have a bit more pace in it than the drivers are showing.

 

Alpine - Pierre Gasly.

With Colapinto joining as reserve driver, I would be surprised if Doohan even lasts the season. I would be more surprised to see him get the better of Gasly, given that Alpine don't seem to rate him too highly and Gasly was the standout driver of the midfield last year. If Colapinto does join the team mid-season, I expect Gasly to comfortably get the better of him as well.

 

Haas - Esteban Ocon.

Ollie Bearman was the most impressive rookie last season and showed some potential in his cameos, but I rate Ocon very highly among the midfield, and I don't think drivers improve much on their initial races at the moment in F1, so I think Ocon will hold the upper hand. He is much better than the end of last season suggested.

 

Alpha Tauri - Yuki Tsunoda.

It is good to have both the F2 title contenders joining the grid, but I think Tsunoda's experience will make the difference. This one could be quite close though.

 

Williams - Carlos Sainz.

Albon is very consistent, but I think that the Williams has been faster than he has made it look the last few seasons, and been flattered by weak teammates. Sainz also perhaps doesn't get the credit he deserves for being so close to three of the top drivers on the current grid. I think Sainz will win this one quite handily, and get straight back into a top seat for 2026.

 

Sauber - Nico Hulkenberg.

This is the hardest one to call because Bortoleto is the F2 champion and could really surprise next year, but while he's inconsistent, Hulkenberg has been very fast all through his career and made Magnussen look very ordinary indeed, so I would back him to collect the points when they are available for Sauber. Of the ten, this is the one I think is most likely to go the other way.

[PitViperRacing]

Other than some people picking Hamilton I can't imagine there's much various in picks tbh. Your list is spot on I think.

[jcbc3]

Yeah, I have the same.

[KWSN - DSM]

I have Bearman beating Ocon as only difference.

[Marklar]

Other than some people picking Hamilton I can't imagine there's much various in picks tbh. Your list is spot on I think.

I don't agree. Bearman has very good chances to beat Ocon, as does Hadjar to beat Tsunoda and also (albeit to a lesser extend) Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg. Rookies against average drivers can always go either way.

I only am certain that Doohan has no chance because he is essentially already on his way out before he even started.

[pup]

Norris, Hamilton, Verstappen, Antonelli, Alonso, Sainz, and others.

[baddog]

Easiest year for this lol

 

Verstappen

Leclerc

Norris

Russell

Alonso

Tsunoda

Sainz

Ocon

Gasly

Hulkenberg

[Alfisti]

Only one I even hesitated on was Tsunoda/Hadjar

[PitViperRacing]

I don't agree. Bearman has very good chances to beat Ocon, as does Hadjar to beat Tsunoda and also (albeit to a lesser extend) Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg. Rookies against average drivers can always go either way.

I only am certain that Doohan has no chance because he is essentially already on his way out before he even started.

Fair enough, agree to disagree! I can't see Bearman coming close to Ocon over a season. Think Ocon is underrated. Same same with Hulk, who just came off comfortably beating Magnussen.

Fair point regarding RB though. That could be closer than I anticipate.

[Laptom]

An easy one for me. Only difficult one was Ocon and Sainz for me. I think their teammates will be close, really close.

[noikeee]

I hesitated on Haas and Sauber, but went all with the obvious ones.

[PlatenGlass]

I went for Hadjar and Bearman because I felt like it. Bearman went to the same school as me so extra points for that. Great motor racing pedigree as we had Mike Smith as well.

[Beri]

The only doubt for me was Lando or Oscar. I went for Oscar. As I rate him higher in racecraft.

 

Surprises me that Hamilton doesnt get the popular vote tho.

[PayasYouRace]

I’ve only gone against the grain with Bearman and Ocon. I think Ollie’s got it in him to come out on top.

All the others seemed fairly obvious except for Ferrari. I think that could go either way and it was only gut feeling that made me pick Leclerc.

[Beri]

I’ve only gone against the grain with Bearman and Ocon. I think Ollie’s got it in him to come out on top.

All the others seemed fairly obvious except for Ferrari. I think that could go either way and it was only gut feeling that made me pick Leclerc.

 

Aside from my McLaren doubt, Bearman is the other real unknown quantity in how good he is or what one could expect from him against Ocon. I do reckon Ocon as a good racer, so it was to me a no brainer to follow my gut feeling and put him on top. But this one could go either way.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Wait till Alpine sign me for 2025 and watch how I'm gonna beat my three teammates! 

[messy]

My only variation to F1Frog's well reasoned list is that I've chosen Ollie Bearman to come out on top against Esteban Ocon. Why? Not sure, just a gut feeling. I like Ocon as a driver, think he's a very dependable source of points. My question is how fast he really is. Something tells me Bearman might be quicker.

[MRX94]

Mostly picked what everybody else is picking, it seems there's a fairly clear consensus regarding all teams. I went for one shot into the dark though, and chose Antonelli against Russell. Let's see if the kid really has something special.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Basically the first listed driver in every team, the only one I was a bit indecisive about was Ocon/Bearman, but went for Ocon in the end.

[Joseki]

On paper this year they all look very one-sided:

 

McLaren: Norris

Ferrari: Leclerc

Red Bull: Verstappen

Mercedes: Russell

Aston Martin: Alonso

Alpine: Gasly

Haas: Ocon

RB: Tsunoda

Williams: Sainz

Sauber: Hulk

[MJB5990]

The interesting thing for teams outside the predicted top four is that just one good result could swing it. Think Kubica/Russell in 2019, George battered Kubica in qualy and in the races but when that team scored a point, it went to Kubica.

[PlatenGlass]

I'm surprised how one-sided the Leclerc/Hamilton one is. I went for Hamilton myself!

[Marklar]

I am not quite agreeing on the lopsided take (even if pressed I have the same, although I agree with messy, I too voted Bearman over Ocon as a gut feeling), except of Red Bull & Alpine (maybe also Merc because it's a tall order for such a young rookie to instantly be at it) all battles are in my opinion close enough to go either way depending on circumstances (e.g. I dont think Sainz vs Albon is that lopsided because it's not a given that he instantly adapts) If I would go by percentage I would come up with something like this

Verstappen vs Lawson 95-5
Gasly vs Doohan 90-10
Russell vs Antonelli 80-20
Norris vs. Piastri 75-25
Leclerc vs Hamilton 75-25
Alonso vs Stroll 75-25
Sainz vs Albon 70-30
Hulkenberg vs Bortoleto 65-35
Tsunoda vs Hadjar 60-40
Ocon vs Bearman 55-45

Edited by Marklar, 20 January 2025 - 12:43.

[Frood]

I’ve gone against the grain on three counts.

1) I think Bortoleto will beat Hülkenberg through getting a big result in a crazy race.

2) I’m buying into the hype and putting Antonelli ahead of Russell. I genuinely think he has it in him.

3) I think Sainz will have a tough time adapting to the Williams. I think he’s a faster driver than Albon, but Albon gets some good results in the first half of the year whilst Sainz gets up to speed, and then the car drops off as Sainz gets used to it.

I’m perfectly happy to be wrong on all counts at the end of the season, like usual.

Edited by Frood, 20 January 2025 - 12:43.

[messy]

The interesting thing for teams outside the predicted top four is that just one good result could swing it. Think Kubica/Russell in 2019, George battered Kubica in qualy and in the races but when that team scored a point, it went to Kubica.

That's a good point, I'm taking 'winning' the team mate battle to mean asserting themselves as the better driver rather than just points scored. Winning the qualifying h2h, ending up the more convincing performer. The other example that always comes to mind is Ricciardo vs Vergne in 2012. JEV 'won' their 16-10 on points, but in my mind Ricciardo was clear winner of that battle regardless as was Russell in 2019. Points often don't mean that much at the back end of the grid.

[MinardiM02]

I think Leclerc will brutalise post-prime Hamilton the same way he brutalised post-prime Vettel. 

Its gonna be ugly. 

[Sterzo]

I used my imagination and came up with exactly the same results as everyone else. I think one factor is that there was no change at the start '24; therefore there's not a bunch of "second year" drivers with a full rookie season behind them, ready to step up and beat the Gasly/Hulkenberg/Ocon "good but not great" group.

[Alexis*27]

I'm surprised how one-sided the Leclerc/Hamilton one is. I went for Hamilton myself!

Yep. Considering a rookie Hamilton had no problem against Alonso the only reason I think I would make Leclerc would be such an obvious winner is Hamilton's qualifying issues.

We know the Merc was a dog in 2022, but there is always the possibility that it was a horrible drive for all three years in comparison with other cars on the grid. Perez might have done fantastically in a McLaren for all we know.

[Joseki]

Yep. Considering a rookie Hamilton had no problem against Alonso the only reason I think I would make Leclerc would be such an obvious winner is Hamilton's qualifying issues.

We know the Merc was a dog in 2022, but there is always the possibility that it was a horrible drive for all three years in comparison with other cars on the grid. Perez might have done fantastically in a McLaren for all we know.

2007 was 18 years ago, not really relevant to today.

[jcbc3]

My only variation to F1Frog's well reasoned list is that I've chosen Ollie Bearman to come out on top against Esteban Ocon. Why? Not sure, just a gut feeling. I like Ocon as a driver, think he's a very dependable source of points. My question is how fast he really is. Something tells me Bearman might be quicker.

 

Funny because, I believe Ocon is way faster than Bearman but Bearman is more level headed, So ven if I picked Ocon, it was not with certainty at all.

[jcbc3]

...
Verstappen vs Lawson 95-5
...
Alonso vs Stroll 75-25
...

That's generous to Lawson and Stroll

[Laster]

Red Bull - Verstappen
I don't think anyone needs to hear any justification for expecting this result.

Ferrari - Hamilton
I'm a bit of a sucker for someone fighting against age and time. I hope the Ferrari will suit Lewis more, but I expect Leclerc will outqualify handily across the season. Lewis however is still very quick come race day.

Mclaren - Norris
Piastri underwhelmed me last year, his qualifying form leaves him well off Norris and his race pace continues to be down too. Beyond being better at a race start I don't yet see a significant area where he's outperforming Norris. He'll need to make a big step this year if he's to turn around the deficit.

Mercedes - Russell
Antonelli is young and raw, he's going to have great races but he's going to make mistakes ong the way. I expect Russell will comfortably beat him this season, as he has both experience and speed, and I think he'll relish the team leader role.

Aston Martin - Alonso
He's up against Stroll.

Alpine - Gasly
I'm hoping Doohan gets a full season, but Gasly's quick in qualifying and gets results, Doohan will he up against it from day one with the shadow of Briatore hanging behind him looking for an excuse.

Haas - Bearman
Said more out of hope. I want to see one of the rookies come out on top and how Bearman handled his sub appearances gives me some hope it's him. But it will be interesting to see how Ocon handles his new team.

MinardiVCARBullswhatevertheirnameis - Tsunoda
Tsunoda has speed and experience now, and Hadjar is similarly wild and full of outbursts as Yuki has been. Yuki will need to dominate Hadjar and put in some eye catching performances if he's to have a hope of having a seat next year.

Williams - Sainz
I don't rate Albon as highly as others, I do think he was flattered by teammates, last year was underwhelming with a car that had no real strengths over others. I expect Sainz will take 5 races to adapt to the new team and then start leaving Albon in the shade.

Sauber/Audi - Hulk
Extremely experienced and strong in qualifying Hulk should have Bortoleto comfortably covered. I like Bortoleto, and I'm happy to see a Brazilian back in F1 but Hulk's no slouch.

[PlatenGlass]

Right now Alonso is winning in terms of votes with 77. But it's 77-2 against Stroll. Gasly is winning in terms of percentage being 76-1 against Doohan. Verstappen is 75-2 up against Lawson.

Ocon/Bearman is closest at 56/22.

Edited by PlatenGlass, 20 January 2025 - 15:34.

[Marklar]

That's generous to Lawson and Stroll

cant do a zero for Lawson   

as for Stroll: he was in the Euro leg better than Alonso last year, and Alonso will not forever hold this level either, he is obviously a big outsider regardless, but it's not a sure thing in my opinion.

[messy]

I don't think Stroll getting the better of Alonso is completely impossible, but to do that he needs to wake up because I feel like he's been going through the motions the last couple of years. Could be wrong and Fernando might still be putting in heroic performances, but I'm not sure. 

[mclarensmps]

I have Bearman beating Ocon as only difference.

You and I are on the same page.

 

The rest of the list I completely agree with, reasoning and all

[Laptom]

I'm surprised how one-sided the Leclerc/Hamilton one is. I went for Hamilton myself!

 

I went for Lec, but must say I rate the Sunday of Hamilton much, much higher. Although 2024 was the best year for Lec, he is still to inconsistent. Something Hamilton can benifit from.

[BelievableNonsense]

Pretty easy.

 

Mclaren: Lando (want Oscar)

Red Bull: Max

Ferrari: Charles

Mercedes: George

Aston Martin: Fred

VCARB: Yuki

Alpine: Pierre

Haas: Esteban

Sauber: Nico

Williams: Sainz

 

Only one I think with the possible potential to surprise me would be if Oliver comes out on top of Esteban 

[Anderis]

Surprised Leclerc vs Hamilton is not closer in the poll. But I voted for the more popular option in every single pair. I do expect we'll have one pair where the winner will not be the one who we thought it would be but I have no idea which one it's going to be. I mean some are obviously more likely than other (I would say Ferrari, Haas, Sauber and VCARB are most likely) but I'm not betting on a specific pairing.

[DW46]

Points are never the full story - Kubica did not beat Russel, but he scored more points.

I don’t disagree but there’s no agreed metric for it as driver fans tweak their interpretation to make it fit. I usually go with who finished ahead in standings, you get some anomalies like this one and Alonso / Marques but you can’t over correct other wise it’s just massaging stats to get a desired result.

[Anderis]

I don’t disagree but there’s no agreed metric for it as driver fans tweak their interpretation to make it fit. I usually go with who finished ahead in standings, you get some anomalies like this one and Alonso / Marques but you can’t over correct other wise it’s just massaging stats to get a desired result.

I like head-to-head in races over points. Head-to-head is still not ideal, especially if the car has a bad reliability but there's only so much luck can skew the head-to-head statistics, while in terms of WDC standings, you can literally perform worse than your team mate in 24/24 races and still finish ahead only due to luck if the car is not good enough for points in most races.

[Red5ive]

2 votes for Liam Lawson !! Okayyyyy 

[PayasYouRace]

Points are never the full story - Kubica did not beat Russel, but he scored more points.

Certainly true, but the poll question is asking who will finish ahead. That is decided by points.

[Brian60]

I'm pretty much in line with everyone else except for the Ferrari lineup. I honestly can't decide which of them will come out on top. Lewis has the racecraft, but crucially Charles has the time in the car and team. He's the more settled so should come out on top, but with Lewis the great unknown. If he can get off to a winning start, I don't think Charles will get a look in.

[Marklar]

you get every year 1-2 battles won by the weaker driver due fortunate events, and sometimes also a battle being won by a driver outright that was assumed to be weaker but simply for whatever reason performed better that year or actually turned out to be the better driver (Norris vs Ricciardo was a great example for this BTW, I remember absolutely no one backing Norris). wont be different this year either, but at least this poll gives us a good idea about expectations (cant get revisionism this way)

Edited by Marklar, 20 January 2025 - 20:15.

[rocque]

Albon prefers strong front end, Sainz doesn't like oversteer. I don't know, but I can't shake the impression that their duel won't be so one-sided...

McLaren released Bortoleto easily, Antonelli and Bearman are very highly rated by F1 teams despite 'meh' seasons in F2. Prema wasn't as good as usual, it's possible that very competitive team inflated Gabriel's stock last year. I have no idea how good he is. My gut feeling says Hulkenberg, but there is 17 years age gap between them, so I can't be sure. There is no bulletproof evidence, just hints here and there...

Edited by rocque, 20 January 2025 - 21:18.

[MattK9]

There is only 2 that are even close.

Ham vs Leclerc & Ocon vs Bearman.

[JimmyClark]

It's going to be a year where cars are very close technically, but teammates are going to be quite clear cut across the board.

[cyclist]

I voted Hamilton, perhaps against common sense, but I believe that Hamilton still has that quality that he can use if he is fully motivated and he feels he has a point to prove. He had a few tough years at Mercedes and was not stellar against Russell. But he is a driver that needs a certain motivation to unlock that extra speed and this has lacked a bit these last years. If Ferrari can re-ignite that spark and has a car that he feels good in, he can do the business. For all those that expect him to take a spanking from Leclerc: Charles did not beat Sainz convincingly enough to see that happen, perhaps in qualifying but not in the race. I don't think that Sainz is better than Hamilton right now.

 

Other surprises would be Piastri beating Norris. I think Oscar has shown flashes of brilliance last year but still needed to work on consistency. He will be extremely motivated to show that he is not a nr. 2 at McLaren and he still has more potential to unfold than Norris had. This extra pressure will lead to more Norris self doubt, whining and mistakes as Piastri is the more ruthless of the 2.

 

Even if I am not 100% convinced I put a penny in for Hadjar to beat Tsunoda, who will be out of F1 at the end of the year I reckon. I also hope that Antonelli can deliver on his promise.