80 replies to this topic

[Sterzo]

I voted Hamilton, perhaps against common sense, but I believe that Hamilton still has that quality that he can use if he is fully motivated and he feels he has a point to prove.

 

Of all the decisions, that is the toughest. They are both utterly brilliant at their best, but neither currently delivers his best with the relentlessness of a Verstappen. Leclerc doesn't; Hamilton used to but no longer does. But then, that's why it's fun: we don't know.

[JL14]

It's going to be a year where cars are very close technically, but teammates are going to be quite clear cut across the board.

 

Yes, because (almost) everyone here wants a grid half full of rookies. Then you get this.

[1player]

I love how you've basically put them in order so that every other option is the correct choice.

[jonklug]

those 2 votes for Lawson. Whoever you are, I respect it! 

[RedRabbit]

I’ve gone against the grain on three counts.

3) I think Sainz will have a tough time adapting to the Williams. I think he’s a faster driver than Albon, but Albon gets some good results in the first half of the year whilst Sainz gets up to speed, and then the car drops off as Sainz gets used to it.

I’m perfectly happy to be wrong on all counts at the end of the season, like usual.

I can't see Sainz having troubles with adapting. The Williams has seemed like one of the easier cars to be immediately up to speed in for several years now, and Sainz has driven a Torro Rosso, a Renault, a very tricky McLaren and a couple of unpredictable Ferrari's with a decent amount of success, and against some of the highest rated drivers.

I'm not even his fan, and I think he will dismantle Albon.

[Gravelngrass]

What’s going on with all the Ham fans in this forum ? Have you lost faith in him or is it just a matter of not wanting to jinx it?

[sheSgoTthElooK]

I just care about the top tier squads.

 

- So, starting with Red Bull. It has to be Verstappen. 

- Ferrari is going to be a tough one. I think Hamilton will have a glorious time but I like Leclerc also ... and I think the guy has talent too. It's going to be a mental battle, I'd say between both. Also depends on how fixated Ferrari will be on either of the drivers. The team is infamous for focusing on one horse if they actually have winning material. 

- Mclaren. I'd go with Piastri. I'm one of the few doing here so. I see consistency and maturity in him. I get 5 % Alonso vibes from him. Let's see if he has speed.

- Mercedes... will you finally release me from the trauma of the past years? Shambolic seasons driving in the "midfield". This let down forced me to have almost 0% expectations this year but the 0.01% fuel in my blood is holding on to a dream. Finally competing for the championship with ... Kimi. The guy who also has few votes around here. I really like the guy. I remember watching an interview with him many months ago and I like his style. It's cheeky but kind. I doubt Russell can be the future of Mercedes.  

[MJB5990]

What’s going on with all the Ham fans in this forum ? Have you lost faith in him or is it just a matter of not wanting to jinx it?

 

I've voted for Lewis but I completely get why others won't. 

 

Lewis is 40, he's moving to a new team, a team where their current driver has been in that seat for five years, most of those as their top driver. Lewis hasn't enjoyed a strong 2024 and has suffered most in qualifying, an area where Charles is widely regarded as one of, if not the strongest on the current grid. Lewis may (MAY!!!) have a slight race pace advantage, we don't know, but if he's a couple of tenths behind on a Saturday (or worse), he's going to get a worse strategy and always be playing catch up. 

 

If the 2025 season is going to be as close as I think most of us hope, those couple or three tenths could easily be four, five, even six grid spots, making it almost impossible to win the battle over the course of a season in the same car.

 

Lewis I think will always back himself, but there's no doubt in my mind that Charles is favourite, albeit only slightly. However, Lewis is my driver, a 7x WDC and I've got faith that he finds something, something in a new environment with a new car, a new fire within to take it to Charles. 

[ANF]

Doohan just got his second vote

[LolaB0860]

Same choices as with almost everyone

[Boxerevo]

What’s going on with all the Ham fans in this forum ? Have you lost faith in him or is it just a matter of not wanting to jinx it?

We can surely say Leclerc was in the top 2 driver of this era.

 

Lewis is older and this reg isn't being kind to him.

 

Qualy form was absurd in 2024, we were okish in 2022/2023 but you can't qualify so far behind and expect to save it somehow sunday.

 

I don't know what to expect and i voted for Lewis because his my driver, but my brain totally says Leclerc will prevail.

 

But i am really not buying so much the versus thing, i am really worried that we have to put Ferrari forward first, like Mclaren did. We have to make Ferrari truly challenge again for championships since the start of the season until the very end, it will be a lot of work to do.

 

But if qualy closer with some dignity, the game will be on.

 

One big difference for some faith is that i believe Ferrari WILL really try to help and this is my hope, they will do the dossies, do the study with him, put the money and time to help and solve something if it is possible to solve and maybe it will be a better car to Lewis.

 

Anyway, we know this is the final stint.

 

Put some faith in my countryman Bortoleto too.

Edited by Boxerevo, 21 January 2025 - 22:33.

[thefinalapex]

For me the Ferrari battle is the hardest one to predict, looking at last year you would say Leclerc. But the beauty of f1 is that things can change quickly, its the teammate battle along with the Russel/antonelli i am looking forward to the most. Considering the top 4 teams are expected to be very close i am looking very much forward to this season.

Edited by thefinalapex, 21 January 2025 - 23:27.

[KPower]

Albon prefers strong front end, Sainz doesn't like oversteer. I don't know, but I can't shake the impression that their duel won't be so one-sided...

McLaren released Bortoleto easily, Antonelli and Bearman are very highly rated by F1 teams despite 'meh' seasons in F2. Prema wasn't as good as usual, it's possible that very competitive team inflated Gabriel's stock last year. I have no idea how good he is. My gut feeling says Hulkenberg, but there is 17 years age gap between them, so I can't be sure. There is no bulletproof evidence, just hints here and there...

 

We know what Albon likes but you're assuming the Williams has a strong front end. I would be extremely surprised if it had anything close to say, the early F1-75 or any of the GE-era Red Bulls. Outside of those extremes, Sainz should be able to operate as usual.

[KPower]

I think the battle results are fairly obvious this year. Might be one or two surprises in the midfield especially if one driver catches a lucky podium and the teammate doesn't. Should be more opportunities for veteran midfielders to grab points given the amount of rookies. Should benefit Williams, Ocon, and Gasly.

Edited by KPower, 22 January 2025 - 00:41.

[RPM40]

In my view people in here are drastically underrating Hamilton. While 2024 may not be his absolute finest year, 2023 was still fantastic and even in 2024 he wasn't far behind Russell.

 

It will be interesting to see how he adapts to the Ferrari, but his race pace in 2024 was still excellent and I wouldn't be surprised if his qualifying form bounces back.

 

He is no doubt past his prime at 40 years old, but this isn't a Raikkonen riding out his twilight years, even missing a tenth or two he is still a force to be reckoned with. 

[Anderis]

Well, it really depends on how you interpret 2024. Was that a sign of a permanent decline or a temporary crisis from which he's going to bounce back? He had some very good races in 2024 but what's worrying is that he also had quite a few really bad ones- which wasn't happening to him more than 1/2 times per season before.

[MRX94]

Well, it really depends on how you interpret 2024. Was that a sign of a permanent decline or a temporary crisis from which he's going to bounce back? He had some very good races in 2024 but what's worrying is that he also had quite a few really bad ones- which wasn't happening to him more than 1/2 times per season before.

Also how good Russell is. So far the majority of fans seem to consider Leclerc an even stronger driver than him, I guess that's also something that will get settled in the coming seasons.

[Ali623]

In my view people in here are drastically underrating Hamilton. While 2024 may not be his absolute finest year, 2023 was still fantastic and even in 2024 he wasn't far behind Russell.

 

It will be interesting to see how he adapts to the Ferrari, but his race pace in 2024 was still excellent and I wouldn't be surprised if his qualifying form bounces back.

 

He is no doubt past his prime at 40 years old, but this isn't a Raikkonen riding out his twilight years, even missing a tenth or two he is still a force to be reckoned with. 

 

I guess there's ultimately a lot more unknowns with Hamilton going into this season compared to Leclerc.

 

Leclerc knows the team well, knows the car well (stable regs) and we have a pretty good idea how he'll perform overall in the Ferrari - he's generally rated as one of the strongest drivers on the grid, most would probably rate him higher than Russell too.

 

Hamilton is moving to a new team, with a totally different culture and has just come off a pretty peculiar year in terms of his performance.

 

I think it goes one of two ways - either Hamilton integrates well into the team, finds his form and confidence again, and in that scenario, him and Leclerc are probably very closely matched and it could go either way. The other is he struggles to adapt, can't re-find his form and much like last year, his qualifying performances let him down - Leclerc wins out.

[messy]

I feel like there's a lot going against Hamilton here. He's 40 and coming off the back of quite a poor season at Mercedes, where Russell has quite decisively got on top of him. Problem there is that I rate Leclerc higher than Russell, plus Hamilton is moving into Leclerc's team rather than the other way round and Leclerc as the incumbent will have that advantage too. I have nothing but respect for Hamilton's achievements in F1 and I think he's a legend of the sport however this goes - but I really can't see Leclerc not giving him a bit of a kicking in '25. 

 

In a way it feels similar to when Kimi Raikkonen signed to partner Alonso in 2014. I'm not comparing 2014 spec Kimi and 2025 spec Lewis, but a lot of excitement at the prospect of two properly great drivers going head to head and I'm sitting there thinking 'this is only ever going to go one way'. 

Edited by messy, 22 January 2025 - 11:45.

[Marklar]

Leclerc has one weakness and that is that he is often struggling to manage his race correctly (especially with his race engineer over strategies or the correct approach at tyre management), which is why he often finishes behind his team mates despite qualifying ahead and despite being also quicker in races. However, he improved on this last year and while Hamilton has been better at this stuff it isn't his biggest strength either. Hamilton's big strength, even now that he is passed his prime, is that he is exceptionally quick in races, but that is not worth much if you qualify regularly behind.

I do think he is slightly underestimated now though due recency bias. He was quicker than Russell in races, and until the summer they were usually quite close in quali, it was only after the summer where he dropped off hard which is likely a natural consequence of getting iced out. Now while this is an unknown variable the factor of a new team and also the fact that drivers in that age can any time drop off hard in their performance (which, again, certainly has already happened in his case, we are just unsure how much it really is) is another variable, so basically the range of possible outcomes is pretty large (anything from being closely matched to a one-sided affair, at least in quali)

tbh I think Leclerc is in a difficult position, because anything less than dominating Hamilton is at this point seen as a failure, and tbh it would have been seen as one even (albeit not as much) if 2024 had not happened because obviously if you are meant to challenge Verstappen you have to clearly beat a driver who is 40 and certainly way passed his prime , no matter who it is. And now that someone less rated than him did (no matter the circumstances) the expectations are even higher.

[PlatenGlass]

I also think the poll head-to-head doesn't say everything. It could be that most people think Leclerc will win by a small margin but the poll doesn't ask for a closeness rating.

[DW46]

I expect LeClerc to win the h2h but if anyone can do it against the odds it’s Hamilton. I’ve bet against him too many times to confidently state he’ll get mailboxes by LeClerc.

I think Marklar has summarised my thoughts better than I could.

[sladealonso]

Gone with all the favourites as I am expecting Leclerc's qualifying speed to undo a resurgent Hamilton. Out of my pick to surprise, I'll choose Bortoleto to outscore Hulkenberg in a promising campaign.

[noikeee]

I also think the poll head-to-head doesn't say everything. It could be that most people think Leclerc will win by a small margin but the poll doesn't ask for a closeness rating.

This is what I was coming in to say.

Everyone thinks Leclerc will win, but I'd say the people who think Leclerc will win comfortably is a minority.. the expectation is more of a slight advantage I would think

[Anderis]

He was quicker than Russell in races, and until the summer they were usually quite close in quali, it was only after the summer where he dropped off hard which is likely a natural consequence of getting iced out.

This is often repeated by a lot of people but it's totally not my interpretation of the 2024 season. Of course there was a decent number of races where Hamilton was just plain quicker in race pace but I wouldn't say it was more than half of all the races. And his bad races were usually worse than Russell's bad races so I would say on average Russell's pace definetely wasn't worse. Until the summer you could just safely bet on Russell finishing ahead most of the time and it couldn't have been attributed solely to qualifying. For example, when in Canada Russell made a mistake and found himself behind Hamilton, he still had the pace to overtake Hamilton and finish ahead. It doesn't make sense that Hamilton was, as you say, close to Russell in quali, quicker than him in races and still finishing behind him on a significant majority of occasions.
 

[garoidb]

This is often repeated by a lot of people but it's totally not my interpretation of the 2024 season. Of course there was a decent number of races where Hamilton was just plain quicker in race pace but I wouldn't say it was more than half of all the races. And his bad races were usually worse than Russell's bad races so I would say on average Russell's pace definetely wasn't worse. Until the summer you could just safely bet on Russell finishing ahead most of the time and it couldn't have been attributed solely to qualifying. For example, when in Canada Russell made a mistake and found himself behind Hamilton, he still had the pace to overtake Hamilton and finish ahead. It doesn't make sense that Hamilton was, as you say, close to Russell in quali, quicker than him in races and still finishing behind him on a significant majority of occasions.
 

 

I wonder if he has any sense yet whether the 2023 Ferrari has avoided whatever behaviour his recent Mercedes cars have had that didn't chime with his technique (according to a certain theory). I know all the caveats - old car, Fiorano, wet weather, not race tyres, not trying too hard - but it still could have told him something.

[garoidb]

I feel like there's a lot going against Hamilton here. He's 40 and coming off the back of quite a poor season at Mercedes, where Russell has quite decisively got on top of him. Problem there is that I rate Leclerc higher than Russell, plus Hamilton is moving into Leclerc's team rather than the other way round and Leclerc as the incumbent will have that advantage too. I have nothing but respect for Hamilton's achievements in F1 and I think he's a legend of the sport however this goes - but I really can't see Leclerc not giving him a bit of a kicking in '25. 

 

In a way it feels similar to when Kimi Raikkonen signed to partner Alonso in 2014. I'm not comparing 2014 spec Kimi and 2025 spec Lewis, but a lot of excitement at the prospect of two properly great drivers going head to head and I'm sitting there thinking 'this is only ever going to go one way'. 

 

Yes, a lot of people (mainly Kimi uber-fans and Fernando doubters) thought Kimi would come out on top. The first group just believed in Kimi that much, based on his McLaren years, and the second group thought Felipe had been seriously affected by his injury and that Fernando was getting lots of credit for nothing special. Motivated thinking, in other words. I was going to say that a drubbing like that would be career-threatening for Lewis but, of course, Kimi proved that wrong  .  

[RedRabbit]

In my view people in here are drastically underrating Hamilton. While 2024 may not be his absolute finest year, 2023 was still fantastic and even in 2024 he wasn't far behind Russell.

It will be interesting to see how he adapts to the Ferrari, but his race pace in 2024 was still excellent and I wouldn't be surprised if his qualifying form bounces back.

He is no doubt past his prime at 40 years old, but this isn't a Raikkonen riding out his twilight years, even missing a tenth or two he is still a force to be reckoned with.

What made 2023 fantastic? Apart from being 3rd in the WDC? The Mercedes was the most consistent car that season behind Red Bull. There were no wild swings in performance like Ferrari, Aston Martin and McLaren had.

Russell had a terrible season and the others had terribly inconsistent cars.

It's the big reason why Red Bull looked so dominant - the only other consistent team had the 3rd fastest car, while 3 other teams took turns being either 2nd fastest or 5th fastest.

[Lennat]

The only ultra obvious ones:

Max WILL beat Lawson!

Alonso will beat Stroll.


Very likely:

Norris beats Piastri. It seems more and more like Piastri lacks that tiny bit of final pace.

Gasly beats Doohan and/or Colapinto. Much more experience and, in my opinion, more talented than either.

Russell beats Antonelli due to his experience.

Tsunoda beats Hadjar. Similar talent level, much more experience.

Sainz beats Albon. I just rate him more highly.


60/40-ish


Leclerc beats Hamilton on pure pace. I think Lewis has indeed declined a bit, and even as I hate to admit it at 37, I don't think 40 is the new 30 or whatever.

Hulk beats Bortoleto due to his experience, but isn't much/any faster.


51/49:

I have a good feeling about Bearman, so why not!

Edited by Lennat, 23 January 2025 - 21:29.

[nivoglibina]

Most pairs look predictable.

 

I think it's possible that Antonelli can outqualify and outscore Russell.

I think its possible that Sainz and Albon are similar in speed.

[George Costanza]

Yep. Considering a rookie Hamilton had no problem against Alonso the only reason I think I would make Leclerc would be such an obvious winner is Hamilton's qualifying issues.

We know the Merc was a dog in 2022, but there is always the possibility that it was a horrible drive for all three years in comparison with other cars on the grid. Perez might have done fantastically in a McLaren for all we know.

The cars were very different in 2007 and Lewis was IMHO, faster than now. He isn't 22 anymore. It makes a difference.

Edited by George Costanza, 24 January 2025 - 17:49.