The standings after Australia:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Anderis 101 101 = Benchulo 101 101 = Costaz 101 101 = mark f1 101 101 = scheivlak 101 101 6) GTA 100 100 = LolaB8060 100 100 8) KWSN-DSM 99 99 = SpaceHorseParty 99 99 10) Bleu 98 98 = DutchQuicksilver 98 98 12) M2000-5 97 97 13) Brawn BGP 001 96 96 14) Makarias 94 94 15) noikeee 92 92Ain't that just a fantastic way to start a season.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2024, which also was 24 races.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Norr 488 386 340 +178 Lecl 385 309 272 + 36 Vers 388 305 225 -183 Pias 374 300 240 +139 Hami 316 251 210 + 39 Russ 299 236 200 + 44 Anto 225 165 121 +165 Laws 200 141 106 +136 Gasl 155 70 40 + 35 Sain 88 55 42 -165 Alon 120 52 14 - 91 Albo 76 36 20 + 10 Tsun 65 27 10 - 13 Stro 37 19 3 - 36 Ocon 30 16 4 - 16 Bear 27 14 5 + 14 Cola 33 13 0 + 13 Dooh 40 11 0 + 11 Hadj 21 10 3 + 10 Hülk 14 5 1 - 1 Bort 8 2 0 + 2 Bott 8 1 0 - 13The Popularity Poll numbers above are rounded off to integers to make the sum 2424.
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff McLa 686 +317 Ferr 560 + 67 RBR 446 -282 Merc 401 - 3 Will 91 + 60 Alpi 81 + 14 Asto 71 -127 RaBu 37 - 61 Haas 30 + 20 Saub 7 - 15These sums are based on the starting drivers for each team. Colapinto's 13 points are probably mostly presumed to go to Alpine, which would place them at 94, ahead of Williams.
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) M2000-5 2312 2) GTA 2295 3) Anderis 2293 4) Makarias 2288 5) scheivlak 2280 6) Costaz 2263 = SpaceHorseParty 2263 8) KWSN-DSM 2255 9) Brawn BGP 001 2250 10) Benchulo 2240 11) noikeee 2233 12) LolaB8060 2231 13) Bleu 2213 14) mark f1 2210 = DutchQuicksilver 2210Very exciting
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Norr 11 Vers 3 Lecl 1The 11-3-1 distribution is the same as for 2022, when the drivers were Verstappen-Hamilton-Leclerc.
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Alon 15 0 0 Stro Gasl 15 0 0 Dooh Lecl 15 0 0 Hami Norr 15 0 0 Pias Russ 15 0 0 Anto Tsun 15 0 0 Hadj Vers 15 0 0 Laws Hülk 14 1 0 Bort Sain 14 1 0 Albo Ocon 11 1 3 Bear ------------------------ Gasl 15 0 0 Dooh+Cola Cola 8 1 6 DoohVery lopsided this year. Notably Leclerc is expected to beat Hamilton who needs some time to acclimatize.
Due to many Colapinto guesses I did a couple of special comparisons within Alpine. Interesting result.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Hülk 113,9 40,0 10 Stro 41,1 21,1 2 Albo 28,1 13,0 0 Anto 7,3 5,3 0 Norr 6,5 5,1 0 Russ 6,4 5,0 0 Vers 5,9 4,6 0 Lecl 1,3 1,0 0 Pias 0,7 0,5 0 Hami 0,4 0,3 0Congratulations to Nico Hülkenberg for becoming the first 2025 driver to beat his expectations! That didn't take long.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Norris Verstappen Russell Antonelli Albon * Forecast 600 * Potential 593 * Potential 590 * Potential 587 * Potential 585 * Potential 600 * Forecast 432 * Forecast 360 * Forecast 288 * Forecast 240 Brawn BGP 001 488 GTA 388 noikeee 299 noikeee 225 M2000-5 76 M2000-5 468 scheivlak 358 Makarias 292 DutchQuicksilver205 SpaceHorseParty 70 Anderis 445 LolaB8060 350 scheivlak 270 LolaB8060 190 noikeee 51 mark f1 405 KWSN-DSM 343 DutchQuicksilver257 SpaceHorseParty 190 Brawn BGP 001 37 Costaz 389 Bleu 341 Bleu 240 Brawn BGP 001 183 Costaz 35 GTA 380 mark f1 340 Costaz 237 Anderis 180 DutchQuicksilver 31 noikeee 366 DutchQuicksilver323 Anderis 233 KWSN-DSM 171 LolaB8060 30 Makarias 365 Benchulo 310 KWSN-DSM 224 Costaz 162 mark f1 30 scheivlak 365 noikeee 293 Brawn BGP 001 220 mark f1 150 scheivlak 30 SpaceHorseParty 365 Anderis 290 LolaB8060 220 M2000-5 145 GTA 29 DutchQuicksilver358 Makarias 272 mark f1 220 Bleu 142 KWSN-DSM 25 Benchulo 356 Brawn BGP 001 253 SpaceHorseParty 215 Makarias 142 Makarias 25 Bleu 355 Costaz 252 Benchulo 208 scheivlak 139 Bleu 23 KWSN-DSM 342 M2000-5 233 M2000-5 201 Benchulo 130 Benchulo 22 LolaB8060 340 SpaceHorseParty 225 GTA 200 GTA 121 Anderis 20 * Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10Seeing the guesses in order for the first time is a fun comparison.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Stroll Hülkenberg Leclerc Piastri Hamilton * Potential 583 * Potential 581 * Potential 579 * Potential 577 * Potential 576 * Forecast 192 * Forecast 144 Costaz 385 Brawn BGP 001 374 Makarias 316 Benchulo 37 scheivlak 14 Bleu 360 Bleu 340 Benchulo 281 Anderis 35 Costaz 11 Makarias 349 Makarias 322 KWSN-DSM 274 Costaz 32 Benchulo 10 GTA 346 SpaceHorseParty 315 M2000-5 266 LolaB8060 30 Anderis 6 Benchulo 341 noikeee 310 SpaceHorseParty 255 Bleu 25 mark f1 6 Anderis 300 M2000-5 302 DutchQuicksilver253 KWSN-DSM 25 * Current 6 LolaB8060 300 DutchQuicksilver301 LolaB8060 250 SpaceHorseParty 22 GTA 5 mark f1 290 GTA 300 mark f1 250 M2000-5 18 LolaB8060 5 scheivlak 290 mark f1 300 noikeee 250 scheivlak 16 KWSN-DSM 4 SpaceHorseParty 290 Benchulo 298 Costaz 249 mark f1 15 Makarias 4 M2000-5 285 scheivlak 288 scheivlak 240 DutchQuicksilver 13 SpaceHorseParty 4 Brawn BGP 001 283 Costaz 287 Anderis 233 GTA 9 Bleu 3 KWSN-DSM 275 Anderis 270 Brawn BGP 001 221 Brawn BGP 001 8 DutchQuicksilver 3 DutchQuicksilver274 KWSN-DSM 255 Bleu 219 * Current 8 M2000-5 2 noikeee 272 LolaB8060 240 GTA 210 noikeee 4 Brawn BGP 001 1 * Forecast 96 * Forecast 48 * Forecast 24 Makarias 3 noikeee 1 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1If Stroll flatlines for the rest of the season I won't end up looking like a complete idiot.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Saudi Arabian GP.
