168 replies to this topic

[JL14]

With the Liam shenagigans going on at Red Bull, there being more talk about all not being well within the team, more 'crisis'-meetings being planned between the technical team and Horner, Helmut and the Verstappen camp to address the current issues with the car and the way forward (including 2026), etc. rumours and talk is starting to surface again about Max leaving the team.

Do you believe that Max will leave Red Bull Racing and if so when and to which team or racing series?

 

With McLaren and Ferrari having their drivers locked in, all the talk centers around Mercedes - with the rumoured best 2026 engine - and Aston Martin - with Adrian Newey and Honda.

 

However, for 2026 I have reservations seeing this happen:

- At Mercedes, Wolff has his 'next Verstappen'. If he really has that belief in and aboutt Kimi - which he very much sounds to fully have - I fail to see why he would want Max in the car, either next to or in place of Kimi?

Why would he put Kimi up against the guy he believes Kimi will be(come) better than? Kimi being beaten will damage the narrative of the super talent, and if it's to show Kimi's better, I fail to see how that would be worth tens of millions in salary to Max since they have a more than decent and capable driver in Russell already. Getting the upper hand over George would already be enough to cement Kimi's skills.

- At Aston Martin we all know why it would be weird if he'd get paired with Alonso. But so would it be if he'd get paired with Stroll since Alonso has a contract for 2026 and it wouldn't be a good look to fire the guy that is a brand ambassador for AM for the coming 10 or so years or have that guy move to another team.

[jonklug]

If he goes it will be Mercedes. Aston will require more time to be competitive. 

[DW46]

Depends entirely on Toto who holds all the cards imho, if he wants Verstappen he’ll get him, if not it’s Aston Martin, stay with a floundering Red Bull or take a year out see what materialises. Might be the latter with the Verstappen / Piquet wonder child on the way.

Honestly too early to say.

[Paa]

It's too soon, all parties need time until summer.

Max needs to see if car can be competitive after some upgrades + TD in Spain.
If car is still shitty with no hope of improving, he will probably go to Merc. (Aston would be too early).
By that time Toto will also have a picture about Kimi, whether Max should replace or partner him.

If car is competitive with genuine WDC fight on merit, then he will stay and re-evaluate in 2026 among RedBull, Merc, Aston and Ferrari(!).
I think deep down he wants to stay as he seems conservative in this regard, but he needs a solid car + good atmosphere for that. So basically the decision will depend on if he can get these from RedBull or not.

 

I think it would make most sense to wait until 2026, because he will have a wider pool to choose from with more information. His next team might be his last one so no need to rush the decision.

Edited by Paa, 27 March 2025 - 00:38.

[Alfisti]

I only see 3 options. Aston, Mercedes or take a year off and see how 26 plays out.

I actually think a year off would really do him good, can refresh his batteries, get to know his child etc. He has been in the sport a long time and still has many years left, take a break and see who looks strong. He is in a position where any team Will take him, no matter who is driving for them.

[zeph]

I doubt he'd go anywhere, but some pundits seem to think Mercedes 2026 is a done deal.

 

I think it's all a part of a larger post-Mateschitz power struggle at RBR. 

Edited by zeph, 27 March 2025 - 01:05.

[Disgrace]

Aston with Honda and Newey is hard to look past, even if Mercedes have the past record. It's not unthinkable that they pay off Alonso's final year if grabbing Max becomes a viable option.

[jonpollak]

Dale Coyne.

Jp

[Ultravox]

I think he joins AM next year. This season will only get worse.

[vlado]

Depends entirely on Toto who holds all the cards

Max Verstappen holds all the cards.

[Ultravox]

If he goes it will be Mercedes. Aston will require more time to be competitive. 

 

He can't just bounce around like that. If he joins Mercedes it will be long term, and then be out of position for AM Newey with new regulations. That makes no sense to me. AM could be a front runner next year already. 

[OvDrone]

Honda, Newey, the Valkyre, the money, really hard to see past Aston. It’s a great opportunity for all sides.

[The Passenger]

Honda, Newey, the Valkyre, the money, really hard to see past Aston. It’s a great opportunity for all sides.

Or did Newey leave Red Bull to get away from Max?

[Ivanhoe]

It’s time he leaves Red Bull really, I’d really like to see him at Mercedes or Ferrari. Would not like to see him move to Aston Martin, want to see him against a competitive teammate in a non-Newey car.

[OvDrone]

Or did Newey leave Red Bull to get away from Max?

Horner.

[SophieB]

It’s time he leaves Red Bull really, I’d really like to see him at Mercedes or Ferrari. Would not like to see him move to Aston Martin, want to see him against a competitive teammate in a non-Newey car.

He could become the first driver to win a championship in a non-Newey car after previously winning in a Newey car!

[thermonuclear]

To Aston Martin at the end of this season. Newey is there, Honda will be there next year, Aston have two drivers currently that could be moved aside to make room for him. Red Bull's direction of travel has not been good since Newey stepped away from actively contributing to car development, and Wache doesn't appear like he could organise a booze-up in a brewery. Don't believe Verstappen or Red Bull will get near either of the titles this season. New in-house PU at Red Bull as well next year, looks like a bigger gamble to stay than to go at this point.

[Yoshi]

If Max is available, you go for him. Its simple in my opinion.

[DW46]

Max Verstappen holds all the cards.

Not if he wants a Mercedes he doesn’t, if Toto extends Russell the Mercedes is likely off the cards.

[jonklug]

He can't just bounce around like that. If he joins Mercedes it will be long term, and then be out of position for AM Newey with new regulations. That makes no sense to me. AM could be a front runner next year already. 

 

Bounce around like what? Where in my post was bouncing around mentioned? I said Mercedes as Aston will likely require more seasons to become truly competitive. You're thinking Newey builds a good car, which he will, but will Honda have a competitive PU in the new regulation? Early signs point to no. Also, their history doesn't really scream confidence about being competitive off the bat in new regulation. I can very well see Aston having a great car but not a good enough PU, meaning they won't win a championship any time soon.

Mercedes is the best bet. 

 

Not if he wants a Mercedes he doesn’t, if Toto extends Russell the Mercedes is likely off the cards.

 

I get what you're saying, but the top dog in F1 will always hold all the cards. Toto can extend Russell today if he wants to. He pursued Max all of last season. I think it's quite clear where Toto stands, the ball is in Verstappen's court. Toto is waiting on Max, and not the other way around. 

[DW46]

Bounce around like what? Where in my post was bouncing around mentioned? I said Mercedes as Aston will likely require more seasons to become truly competitive. You're thinking Newey builds a good car, which he will, but will Honda have a competitive PU in the new regulation? Early signs point to no. Also, their history doesn't really scream confidence about being competitive off the bat in new regulation. I can very well see Aston having a great car but not a good enough PU, meaning they won't win a championship any time soon.

Mercedes is the best bet.


I get what you're saying, but the top dog in F1 will always hold all the cards. Toto can extend Russell today if he wants to. He pursued Max all of last season. I think it's quite clear where Toto stands, the ball is in Verstappen's court. Toto is waiting on Max, and not the other way around.

I think he’ll got to Mercedes rather than Aston Martin. Toto won’t be able to resist the grids strongest driver and hottest prospect in tandem. Plus getting one over on Horner will be tough to ignore 😂

However if the Mercedes is 2014 levels good he doesn’t really need a specific driver and I think that’s where the fluffing up of Russell to the media came from last weekend. A cheeky bit of “hurry up Max”.

[PrinceBira]

The only logical option is Mercedes, but boy would I like to see him with Ferrari against Leclerc or against Hamilton.

[DW46]

He already did last year.

If we count mid year departures Jacques beat him to it.

[Kao18]

He could become the first driver to win a championship in a non-Newey car after previously winning in a Newey car!

He already did last year.

[SophieB]

If we count mid year departures Jacques beat him to it.

I personally do not.

[Analog]

I think there's a decent chance/risk that there'll be a seat available at Ferrari if Hamilton don't feel it anymore, either after this season or next. I'd love to see Max in Indycar one season, waiting for that seat. Or maybe just waiting to see which team best get along with the 2026 regs.

[kumo7]

Merc, Ferrari or Aston, who ever the quickest will be.
This year will not be Aston.
big chance to Merc if it were this year.
In the years time, perhaps to Ferrari, which I think is the most likely destination.

[zeph]

The only logical option is Mercedes, but boy would I like to see him with Ferrari against Leclerc or against Hamilton.

 

 

I mean, that would be perfect! Verstappen and his Ferrari teammate slugging it out for P5/6 supremacy while McLaren and Mercedes fight for the title!

[macjim]

It can only be Merc or Aston, Merc being the more realistic WDC choice in the short term - Newey will need time to turn Aston around.

 

The more interesting thing is Marko, Max took his side in the Horner debacle last year and insinuated if Marko was force out he’d leave.

 

I’d bet neither Merc or Aston will want the 81 year old as part of the deal.

[MissingApex]

It can only be Merc or Aston, Merc being the more realistic WDC choice in the short term - Newey will need time to turn Aston around.

The more interesting thing is Marko, Max took his side in the Horner debacle last year and insinuated if Marko was force out he’d leave.

I’d bet neither Merc or Aston will want the 81 year old as part of the deal.

If Max will leave, Marko probably will leave too.

Jos and Max’ manager are already pushing Max to sign for Mercedes since the Horner saga last year. I will be surprised if he doesn’t drive a Merc next season.

[Nobody]

McLaren would be the only team thinking twice about NOT offering him something

[Baddoer]

AM

[GiorgioF1]

Aston of course. Reinvigorated Newey + Strolls money + reliable teammate in Lance.

 

Lawrence will have spare no expenses policy when it comes to getting Verstappen.

 

Imho the big part of bringing Newey in was in fact swaying Max for 2026.

[jonklug]

The only logical option is Mercedes, but boy would I like to see him with Ferrari against Leclerc or against Hamilton.

 

Ferrari don't have a seat however, unless Leclerc decides he just can't take it anymore and wants to leave, or Hamilton - appalled by Ferrari operations decides to retire early and not subject himself the Ferrari experience for another year. As a Max fan I don't even know if I'd want him in Ferrari. Would LOVE to see him paired with either Leclerc or Hamilton, it would be absolute cinema, but I don't think Ferrari have what it takes to win a championship, all they do is endlessly frustrate their drivers and their fans. 

[Chillimeister]

Not if he wants a Mercedes he doesn’t, if Toto extends Russell the Mercedes is likely off the cards.

 

Can't agree with that. If the best driver in F1 (by a distance) became available, he would be snapped up. Wolff may be a lot of things but he is not an idiot, he would just make a choice between Russell and Antonelli if Verstappen wanted to join Mercedes. Same if Verstappen wanted to go to Ferrari, they would just pay off Hamilton.

[DW46]

Can't agree with that. If the best driver in F1 (by a distance) became available, he would be snapped up. Wolff may be a lot of things but he is not an idiot, he would just make a choice between Russell and Antonelli if Verstappen wanted to join Mercedes. Same if Verstappen wanted to go to Ferrari, they would just pay off Hamilton.

See id argue Ferrari and McLaren are closed to him, they have locked in drivers for a number of years on expensive contracts. Browns already said he costs too much and Ferrari have the only two drivers who’ve ever caused him a headache.

I think he’ll go to Mercedes but that’s up to Toto and Max. Hence the cards comment, they both have other options but Toto almost certainly has a better car on offer then Aston Martin in the short term.

[jonklug]

With how they handled that 2nd seat I do feel this will be the final nail in the coffin and the final motivation Verstappen needs to say yes to Toto. Unless he ALREADY has said yes, I think that scenario is also possible. 

Edited by jonklug, 27 March 2025 - 09:55.

[Ali_G]

Would be mad to go anywhere else except Mercedes. Illmor will have produced the best engine for the new formula once again.

[Gareth]

The fact Mercedes have not yet extended Russell, and didn't do so quickly after the Hamilton leaving news, makes me believe that Mercedes have a genuine belief they have a chance to sign Max for next season (or perhaps even already have).

 

So I think there's a high chance he goes, and a high chance it's Merc.

 

Ranking possibilities (all numbers pulled out of my backside), I'd say:

 

1. Merc - 50%

2. AM - 25%

3. RB - 20%

4. Other (inc. not F1) - 5%

[DW46]

Harsh on Russell but the biggest drivers only seem to become available once a decade.

[Ali_G]

People seem to think that Newey is a magic bullet. I suspect AM will stay midfield even with Newey and works Honda power.

[KWSN - DSM]

Is Russell an all-time great? No

Can Russell become and all-time great? No

Is Antonelli and all-time great? No

Can Antonelli become and all-time great? Possibly

Is Verstappen and all-time great? Yes

 

If Verstappen decide on Mercedes, it will be Russell left with no chair.

[KWSN - DSM]

People seem to think that Newey is a magic bullet. I suspect AM will stay midfield even with Newey and works Honda power.

 

At least in the immediate future yes.

[JimmyClark]

People seem to think that Newey is a magic bullet. I suspect AM will stay midfield even with Newey and works Honda power.

 

It took Newey 3 years to start winning with Red Bull, and Honda 4 years from re-entering in 2015, so indeed on a similar curve it will probably be 3-4 years until Aston can become solid title contenders. But Lawrence has made a lot of investment, and maybe it can be expedited, but indeed expectations of having a winning car in 2026/2027 are likely to be far off. The new aero rules, though, give them a better chance. 

Edited by JimmyClark, 27 March 2025 - 10:12.

[Ali_G]

It took Newey 3 years to start winning with Red Bull, and Honda 4 years from re-entering in 2015, so indeed on a similar curve it will probably be 3-4 years until Aston can become solid title contenders. But Lawrence has made a lot of investment, and maybe it can be expedited, but indeed expectations of having a winning car in 2026/2027 are likely to be far off. The new aero rules, though, give them a better chance.

I’m not even thinking short term. I don’t see them getting Ferrari or Mercedes in the medium term. RBR are definitely on a downward trend though.

[SophieB]

I think he will be at Mercedes in 2026.

[Risil]

I've not seen a great deal of progress from Aston Martin since their very good 2023.

 

Max taking a year off, maybe doing Le Mans, sounds like fun. It helped Alonso. But it presumably depends on contracts, he'll want to get into a good seat when he comes back.

[SenorSjon]

I don't think the Ferrari Stragedy department would survive Max.

 

Mercedes seems to be the most logical choice, Aston Martin will offer the most money.

[KWSN - DSM]

I don't think the Ferrari Stragedy department would survive Max.

 

Mercedes seems to be the most logical choice, Aston Martin will offer the most money.

 

Or winning the World Championship in 2025, continue with Red Bull until end of 2028 as he is currently contracted?

[Darnswim]

I don't think the Ferrari Stragedy department would survive Max.

 

Mercedes seems to be the most logical choice, Aston Martin will offer the most money.

GP has a thick skin to be able to handle Max. Ferrari strategists/engineers would absolutely crumble under the Max pressure.