150 replies to this topic

[renzmann]

https://www.gazzetta...on-martin.shtml

[Ellios]

https://www.gazzetta...on-martin.shtml

There's been quite a bit of noise around this subject, seemingly more than clickbait.

Interesting, we'll all find out soon enough.

[Beri]

And the play is on. Just shy of 90 million Euros per season for a 3 year contract.
Saudi investment fund Public Investment Fund (PIF) seems to be the bank guarantee for a shock move for Verstappen to Aston Martin from 2026 onwards.

https://www.gazzetta...artin_amp.shtml

[Disgrace]

I would say completely intuitive and unsurprising rather than shock move, assuming it happens.

[FLB]

So... Who goes away at Aston? I can't see Stroll leaving, unless it's by choice.

[Red5ive]

I dont see anything to suggest Aston Martin will be a front runner anytime soon. Yes Newey is there now but it will take more than that.

 

Merc is the more obvious choice - assuming Verstappens motivation is not a huge dollar sign.

[garoidb]

Does anyone know that would compare to other big driver deals in the recent past? And to Max's current deal? 

[STRFerrari4Ever]

I know Max wants to continue winning but that might become less common at Red Bull so why not get a major payday from Aston Martin knowing when that contract is up you’ll still be highly sought after because you are Max Verstappen.

[Afterburner]

Makes sense, if there’s no room for him at Merc. Merc may get a head start on the regs but all signs point to Aston being competitive within that three-year window.

[Marklar]

I dont see anything to suggest Aston Martin will be a front runner anytime soon. Yes Newey is there now but it will take more than that.

 

Merc is the more obvious choice - assuming Verstappens motivation is not a huge dollar sign.

with Stuttgart being stingy and the German automotive crisis I suspect Mercedes will not even be willing to match what Verstappen currently earns, let alone what Aston Martin (and Ferrari) can offer, even if I'm sure Toto would fight hard for it.

No driver takes willingly a paycut, at most when they are very desperate (usually late in the career) and know that they will be guaranteed a dominant car, but as of now you don't have that anywhere.

I think will stay next year at Red Bull and then try to get the best combination of financial package and sporting perspective, pending availability.

[renzmann]

Here's something I don't understand about Wolff supposedly being happy with Russell and thus no longer being interested in Verstappen. Two things:

 - Russell has been great this season (for four races). No doubt about it. He did good, but not great (as compared to his current form and as compared to the Verstappen benchmark) all the seasons before. Four races are enough to make Wolff forget about all the seasons before? I don't think so. There has got to be doubt about Russell still.

 - Wolff probably has reason to believe his 2026 car will have the best engine. That, in isolation, could make him think Russell is good enough for the WDC in the 2026 Merc. That would be very naive though. McLaren and Williams will have the same engine. Wolff cannot be sure his car will beat those teams' designs. Oh, and there is the opportunity cost of Verstappen switching to a Newey/Honda/state of the art campus/unlimited budget/no serious team-mate/... AM combination. Will Russell be good enough to keep that kind of competition at bay? Time will tell, but Wolff is smart enough to know every tenth counts in 2026 as well. Choosing Verstappen could make all the difference.

[Marklar]

Does anyone know that would compare to other big driver deals in the recent past? And to Max's current deal? 

reportedly he is at 50-60m (give or take) per year currently, for all these estimates it is obviously unknown if it's gross or if potential bonuses are included, plus obviously most is made up anyway.

The next highest paid driver (except of Hamilton) gets a bit more than half of it, based on estimates.

[Anja]

Makes sense, if there’s no room for him at Merc. Merc may get a head start on the regs but all signs point to Aston being competitive within that three-year window.

 

Do they? 

[jonklug]

Do they? 

 

State of the art wind tunnel, Newey and Honda. Pretty much everything he had at RedBull + a new wind tunnel. Insane to think they won't get it right sooner rather than later imho. 

[Bliman]

State of the art wind tunnel, Newey and Honda. Pretty much everything he had at RedBull + a new wind tunnel. Insane to think they won't get it right sooner rather than later imho. 

The road to the top is littered with many companies that thought the same and never made it. It is not so easy getting to the top.

[jonklug]

Here's something I don't understand about Wolff supposedly being happy with Russell and thus no longer being interested in Verstappen. Two things:

 - Russell has been great this season (for four races). No doubt about it. He did good, but not great (as compared to his current form and as compared to the Verstappen benchmark) all the seasons before. Four races are enough to make Wolff forget about all the seasons before? I don't think so. There has got to be doubt about Russell still.

 - Wolff probably has reason to believe his 2026 car will have the best engine. That, in isolation, could make him think Russell is good enough for the WDC in the 2026 Merc. That would be very naive though. McLaren and Williams will have the same engine. Wolff cannot be sure his car will beat those teams' designs. Oh, and there is the opportunity cost of Verstappen switching to a Newey/Honda/state of the art campus/unlimited budget/no serious team-mate/... AM combination. Will Russell be good enough to keep that kind of competition at bay? Time will tell, but Wolff is smart enough to know every tenth counts in 2026 as well. Choosing Verstappen could make all the difference.

 

Verstappen would have already signed with Mercedes had he wanted to make the switch. I guess Toto won't wait till the end of the season and have Russell snatched by someone else, and end up without either. It's the pragmatic choice. 

[Taxi]

Russell is a pretty great driver if you ask me. He's young, very fast and is beggining to be a real team leader. He started to match Hamilton right away in 2022 and in the 3 years together they were basically equal. Not bad to compare like that to a 7 time world champion, hugh?

 

One thing I think George excels the two other top beautiful talents (Norris and Leclerc) is that he's clearly more inteligent and sharp in race and car analysis. He feels the race around him better than the other two while being as fast as them. Or at least he's like 0,1 from them. 

 

If I was Toto I would see who this season goes and only past the summer break would think about ditching one of my drivers. Sure Max is the absolut best but it's always a risk. 

[Secretariat]

So... Who goes away at Aston? I can't see Stroll leaving, unless it's by choice.

 

In my opinion Alonso would be the odd man out because if Max ends up at Aston Martin, the "blueprint" follows Max. Aston is quite content with that type of set up anyway.   

[Marklar]

Here's something I don't understand about Wolff supposedly being happy with Russell and thus no longer being interested in Verstappen. Two things:

 - Russell has been great this season (for four races). No doubt about it. He did good, but not great (as compared to his current form and as compared to the Verstappen benchmark) all the seasons before. Four races are enough to make Wolff forget about all the seasons before? I don't think so. There has got to be doubt about Russell still.

 - Wolff probably has reason to believe his 2026 car will have the best engine. That, in isolation, could make him think Russell is good enough for the WDC in the 2026 Merc. That would be very naive though. McLaren and Williams will have the same engine. Wolff cannot be sure his car will beat those teams' designs. Oh, and there is the opportunity cost of Verstappen switching to a Newey/Honda/state of the art campus/unlimited budget/no serious team-mate/... AM combination. Will Russell be good enough to keep that kind of competition at bay? Time will tell, but Wolff is smart enough to know every tenth counts in 2026 as well. Choosing Verstappen could make all the difference.

I suspect he wants to get Verstappen, but he has two issues

a) with Russell's current performance it's difficult to pick who you'd drop. Sure, everyone says he can park Kimi elsewhere for two years, but that sort of demotion will mark him negatively, and Merc invested greatly into him. 
b) Verstappen is likely too expensive. Already based on what he currently earns at Red Bull, but if the rumoured offer from AM is true Stuttgart wont ever approve of this.

I think fans greatly overestimate how much most teams are willing to spend, especially since the whole premise of having to hire Verstappen at all costs relies on the assumption that a) they cant win the title without him, b) the team that gets him instead would win the title with him (there is actually a high chance that Max gets "neutralized" somewhere). These things are all not a given, so showering a buckload of money just to be "sure" (but you are not!) makes financially not much sense.

[FirstnameLastname]

Max could demand that he gets Alonso as his team mate

Would mean he could finally go up against a ‘great’ and get rid of that accusation of wanting lapdog team mates

Either that or Lance will retire his 3rd WDC team mate when he destroys Max.

[garoidb]

State of the art wind tunnel, Newey and Honda. Pretty much everything he had at RedBull + a new wind tunnel. Insane to think they won't get it right sooner rather than later imho. 

 

The later part is the issue, as things can fall apart when expected early success doesn't come (e.g. McLaren Honda 2015 - 2017). Also, Newey will be in his late 60s in this three year period. While relishing the project at this time, is he going to feel the same about it if things start to go wrong, or fail to come to fruition, in 2028 say.

Edited by garoidb, Yesterday, 12:50.

[Mat13]

State of the art wind tunnel, Newey and Honda. Pretty much everything he had at RedBull + a new wind tunnel. Insane to think they won't get it right sooner rather than later imho.

Was it Toyota or BMW who tried that? I can see this Aston thing being pretty short-lived unless they really start winning, I’m not sure the Strolls are that committed.

[garoidb]

Max could demand that he gets Alonso as his team mate

Would mean he could finally go up against a ‘great’ and get rid of that accusation of wanting lapdog team mates

Either that or Lance will retire his 3rd WDC team mate when he destroys Max.

 

People making that accusation have ulterior motives and would just switch to another angle if he were to beat Fernando well (Alonso's age, for example).

[Anja]

State of the art wind tunnel, Newey and Honda. Pretty much everything he had at RedBull + a new wind tunnel. Insane to think they won't get it right sooner rather than later imho. 

 

There are no guarantees in this sport and spending money can't buy success. They have one of the worst chassis on the grid right now, even with Newey they won't magically turn it into a winner overnight.

[jonklug]

The road to the top is littered with many companies that thought the same and never made it. It is not so easy getting to the top.

 

Sure, so all we can do is ask the question: do they have the right pieces to succeed? 

It wouldn't be a wild guess to expect a the top designer in history with a new wind tunnel, and engine manufacturer he has worked with and the best driver on the grid to succeed. Surely that's not far fetched. 

[Kao18]

Alonso would give up his seat imo but stay with the team just not as a driver.

Thats the impression I got from the press conference yesterday sort of. Speculation on my part though.

[Laster]

Max could demand that he gets Alonso as his team mate

Would mean he could finally go up against a ‘great’ and get rid of that accusation of wanting lapdog team mates

Either that or Lance will retire his 3rd WDC team mate when he destroys Max.

Heh I doubt Verstappne gives a damn what people think on that one way or another. But if he did, I'm not sure going up against a great when they're in their mid 40's will necessarily have that effect. Kinda hard to claim they're operating at their peak, even if Alonso does occasionally like to claim otherwise.

[jonklug]

Was it Toyota or BMW who tried that? I can see this Aston thing being pretty short-lived unless they really start winning, I’m not sure the Strolls are that committed.

 

Did they have prime Michael Schumacher driving for them? 

[SenorSjon]

reportedly he is at 50-60m (give or take) per year currently, for all these estimates it is obviously unknown if it's gross or if potential bonuses are included, plus obviously most is made up anyway.

The next highest paid driver (except of Hamilton) gets a bit more than half of it, based on estimates.

 

The article mentions 50m a year. Saves on finding those tenths on car development.

 

I remember Agip quiting Ferrari when Schumacher had an astronomical transfer from Benetton.

[Marklar]

Did they have prime Michael Schumacher driving for them? 

Toyota wouldn't have won a title even if God himself was driving for them.
 

Was it Toyota or BMW who tried that? I can see this Aston thing being pretty short-lived unless they really start winning, I’m not sure the Strolls are that committed.

my biggest "doubt" about Aston Martin is that they still kept Stroll jr all those years. The whole project gives of the vibe that all investments are made to one day have Stroll become a WDC, and that's it.

I may be wrong though.

[FirstnameLastname]

‘Max, let Lance past for the championship’

[IrvTheSwerve]

Alonso said in the press conference that there was zero (or very slim - I’m paraphrasing) chance of this happening…

[garoidb]

Alonso would give up his seat imo but stay with the team just not as a driver.

Thats the impression I got from the press conference yesterday sort of. Speculation on my part though.

 

Would Max want him around, particularly if he had forced him into retirement? I took Fernando's statement to be an affirmation of his contractual position so that Aston Martin couldn't misrepresent anything later. If they want Fernando gone, they might have to pay him handsomely (if that's what his contract says).

[IrvTheSwerve]

Would Max want him around, particularly if he had forced him into retirement? I took Fernando's statement to be an affirmation of his contractual position so that Aston Martin couldn't misrepresent anything later. If they want Fernando gone, they might have to pay him handsomely (if that's what his contract says).

That’s how I took it, too. Basically, I’ll move over eventually to work with the team elsewhere, but I’m 100% driving for the next couple of years…

[garoidb]

Aston Martin making Max a big offer is not sensational news. It's an obvious thing for them to do. It's what Max thinks about it that matters.

Edited by garoidb, Yesterday, 13:09.

[garoidb]

That’s how I took it, too. Basically, I’ll move over eventually to work with the team elsewhere, but I’m 100% driving for the next couple of years…

 

Yes. I have often seen talk about this driver or that driver having a post-driving role or relationship built in to their negotiations but those things would only ever happen if both sides still want it when the time comes. It's the same with Alonso. He will only be in a non-driving role at Aston if it suits Stroll and, should he join, Verstappen. He could very easily end up doing it somewhere else, even.  

Edited by garoidb, Yesterday, 13:09.

[FirstnameLastname]

Alonso said in the press conference that there was zero (or very slim - I’m paraphrasing) chance of this happening…

That’s confirmation that it’s 100% happening

[FLB]

That’s confirmation that it’s 100% happening

Agreed. Also a confirmation there will be a fight... and that it will be expensive, IMHO. Which is why I think there were some rumours yesterday about Alpine, i.e. somebody telling Alonso there may be a berth available there (in case Verstappen just turned Alpine down  ).

Edited by FLB, Yesterday, 13:19.

[PrinceBira]

Max could demand that he gets Alonso as his team mate

Would mean he could finally go up against a ‘great’ and get rid of that accusation of wanting lapdog team mates

Either that or Lance will retire his 3rd WDC team mate when he destroys Max.

You know, it doesn’t matter who his team mate is. Detractors will always find a way. Too old, out of form, wasn’t good anyway, car built only for Max.

He won’t care about that.

What he will care about - I think! - is that this is Saudi money. It’s another way of sportswashing obviously. Does he want to promote this? Especially if SA buys the team from Stroll? I doubt it.

Especially because 50 or 80m doesn’t change his life. He’s got more money than he can spend anyway.

The deciding factors for him will be:
- believe in competetiveness
- who will he work with (will GP join?). He’s loyal and sensitive to these things.

[P123]

AM is the move that most expected for Max to make?  Newey, Honda and the Saudi millions.  There will always be others waiting to snap him up if that doesn't work out. 

[Kao18]

Alonso said in the press conference that there was zero (or very slim - I’m paraphrasing) chance of this happening…

He said there was almost no chance to become team mates. He’ll know that Stroll jr. isnt going anywhere and he would be the one that would be replaced when it comes to that at his age.

Edited by Kao18, Yesterday, 13:21.

[pRy]

I'll be surprised if this doesn't happen. It feels inevitable at this point.

[Kao18]

Would Max want him around, particularly if he had forced him into retirement? I took Fernando's statement to be an affirmation of his contractual position so that Aston Martin couldn't misrepresent anything later. If they want Fernando gone, they might have to pay him handsomely (if that's what his contract says).

Like I said that was not the impression I got at all. I believe he genuinely would want to stay and I dont see why Max would have a problem with that. They get along well and have a lot of respect for eachother.

[Marklar]

You know, it doesn’t matter who his team mate is. Detractors will always find a way. Too old, out of form, wasn’t good anyway, car built only for Max.

He won’t care about that.

What he will care about - I think! - is that this is Saudi money. It’s another way of sportswashing obviously. Does he want to promote this? Especially if SA buys the team from Stroll? I doubt it.

Especially because 50 or 80m doesn’t change his life. He’s got more money than he can spend anyway.

The deciding factors for him will be:
- believe in competetiveness
- who will he work with (will GP join?). He’s loyal and sensitive to these things.

I think it's pretty naive to think that most drivers care about where the money comes from, especially a driver that gets praised by fans for "not caring".

I do think competetiveness will be a key factor besides money, but when you don't know who will be competitive I think taking the big bag is an easy choice, especially since really the variables are in theory also lined up nicely to be competitive, so you kinda have the right balance.

Your last point may be more relevant: who joins him (besides Newey being already there), but that's a issue he will face anywhere he moves.

[FLB]

Like I said that was not the impression I got at all. I believe he genuinely would want to stay and I dont see why Max would have a problem with that. They get along well and have a lot of respect for eachother.

Completely agreed on that. 

[IrvTheSwerve]

Like I said that was not the impression I got at all. I believe he genuinely would want to stay and I dont see why Max would have a problem with that. They get along well and have a lot of respect for eachother.

I can’t see Fernando being pushed aside just as they are (potentially) getting competitive and then wanting to stay to help Max’s cause. It’s just not in his personality (and I wouldn’t blame him either). He wants another WDC for himself at all costs.

[renzmann]

Russell is a pretty great driver if you ask me. He's young, very fast and is beggining to be a real team leader. He started to match Hamilton right away in 2022 and in the 3 years together they were basically equal. Not bad to compare like that to a 7 time world champion, hugh?

 

One thing I think George excels the two other top beautiful talents (Norris and Leclerc) is that he's clearly more inteligent and sharp in race and car analysis. He feels the race around him better than the other two while being as fast as them. Or at least he's like 0,1 from them. 

 

If I was Toto I would see who this season goes and only past the summer break would think about ditching one of my drivers. Sure Max is the absolut best but it's always a risk. 

 

Leclerc, Russell and Verstappen were all born within 6 months from each other. Young and talented aren't attributes I would choose. They are all in their prime (which in part explains Russell's statistics against Hamilton). Norris is two years younger, of course

 

 

I suspect he wants to get Verstappen, but he has two issues

a) with Russell's current performance it's difficult to pick who you'd drop. Sure, everyone says he can park Kimi elsewhere for two years, but that sort of demotion will mark him negatively, and Merc invested greatly into him. 
b) Verstappen is likely too expensive. Already based on what he currently earns at Red Bull, but if the rumoured offer from AM is true Stuttgart wont ever approve of this.

I think fans greatly overestimate how much most teams are willing to spend, especially since the whole premise of having to hire Verstappen at all costs relies on the assumption that a) they cant win the title without him, b) the team that gets him instead would win the title with him (there is actually a high chance that Max gets "neutralized" somewhere). These things are all not a given, so showering a buckload of money just to be "sure" (but you are not!) makes financially not much sense.

a) is a good point, but I doubt b) is. If Verstappen asks Merc to pay whatever AM is willing to offer, then yes, b) is correct. If he doesn't, I don't think the argument is striking. Merc were willing to pay Hamilton an incredible salary. It would be weird if that kind of money suddenly were too much when it comes to Verstappen. As to whether that kind of money pays off: What AM is offering supposedly certainly does not add up and is only possible due to crazy Saudi/Stroll money. Paying somewhere in the realm of 50-80 million dollars might, though. 50-80 million dollars actually is 20-50 million (as a new contract for Russell will cost the team 30-40 million dollars; this is what Wolff has to pay no matter what). For that money, Verstappen offers brutal consistency and a tenth or two on most tracks, on a great weekend maybe more (and signing him would make sure the competition didn't have those benefits). If Wolff wants that through means of car development (Schumacher is making this point on Sky Germany as I'm writing this lol), it's questionable whether that is realistic.

 

b) is true in the sense that it's simply not an easy decision though! Even if the investment makes sense, it's a huge number. Wolff might be scared of it.

 

EDIT: Ah, there's an extra thread for this stuff. Nevermind any of this

Edited by renzmann, Yesterday, 13:45.

[garoidb]

I can’t see Fernando being pushed aside just as they are (potentially) getting competitive and then wanting to stay to help Max’s cause. It’s just not in his personality (and I wouldn’t blame him either). He wants another WDC for himself at all costs.

 

I agree. It's different if it happens at a time when he had planned to have stopped driving anyway (2027 probably). If he still wants to drive for 2026, I don't think he would stand aside for Max or, if pushed out, stay on to help. I think he would negotiate for another seat elsewhere or just retire unencumbered by any obligations. 

 

Edit: and I don't think his comments address a situation where he has been displaced early, but just the former situation where he has finished on his own terms at the end of 2026.

Edited by garoidb, Yesterday, 13:36.

[Kao18]

I can’t see Fernando being pushed aside just as they are (potentially) getting competitive and then wanting to stay to help Max’s cause. It’s just not in his personality (and I wouldn’t blame him either). He wants another WDC for himself at all costs.

I think he’s past that. He’ll be 45 next year. He is still motivated but like he said himself he will keep driving as long as the team thinks he can make a contribution.

Staying around would not be to help Max’ cause but to help Aston Martins’ cause.

[FullThrottleF1]

I'll be the only one saying this. I hope they change the name if they sell the team. Aston Martin isn't a proper manufacturer. That should only be reserved for those who build the engine and car in-house. Plus I hate British Racing Green. It just looks dull. I'm sure all the commenters are gonna hate me. Just my opinion