The standings after Emilia-Romagna:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) SpaceHorseParty 705 101 2) M2000-5 699 101 3) mark f1 696 90 4) DutchQuicksilver 695 92 5) Brawn BGP 001 694 96 6) scheivlak 693 89 7) Costaz 692 96 8) GTA 691 91 9) KWSN-DSM 690 91 = noikeee 690 101 11) Benchulo 689 91 = LolaB8060 689 89 13) Anderis 687 91 14) Bleu 680 91 = Makarias 680 89No more perfect scores remain as mark f1 misses a whole bunch of points this round. Makarias uses his vast experience in this game to drop to joint last place.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Hülk 113,9 40,0 10 Albo 112,4 51,9 12 Ocon 85,4 45,2 6 Hadj 72,9 31,8 5 Stro 51,4 26,3 4 Pias 44,0 35,2 0 Bear 42,9 21,4 2 Vers 38,7 30,3 0 Russ 37,8 29,7 0 Norr 32,1 25,4 0 Anto 26,7 19,5 0 Sain 19,9 12,4 0 Lecl 18,4 14,8 0 Hami 15,5 12,3 0 Tsun 14,6 6,1 0 Gasl 8,6 3,8 0Alex Albon becomes the second driver of the season to beat his expectations!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2025 this is 15.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Norris Piastri Hamilton Albon * Potential 543 * Potential 549 * Potential 557 * Potential 464 * Potential 465 * Forecast 405 Brawn BGP 001 488 * Forecast 453 Makarias 316 * Forecast 137 GTA 388 M2000-5 468 Brawn BGP 001 374 Benchulo 281 M2000-5 76 scheivlak 358 Anderis 445 Bleu 340 KWSN-DSM 274 SpaceHorseParty 70 LolaB8060 350 * Forecast 425 Makarias 322 M2000-5 266 noikeee 51 KWSN-DSM 343 mark f1 405 SpaceHorseParty 315 SpaceHorseParty 255 * Current 40 Bleu 341 Costaz 389 noikeee 310 DutchQuicksilver253 Brawn BGP 001 37 mark f1 340 GTA 380 M2000-5 302 LolaB8060 250 Costaz 35 DutchQuicksilver323 noikeee 366 DutchQuicksilver301 mark f1 250 DutchQuicksilver 31 Benchulo 310 Makarias 365 GTA 300 noikeee 250 LolaB8060 30 noikeee 293 scheivlak 365 mark f1 300 Costaz 249 mark f1 30 Anderis 290 SpaceHorseParty 365 Benchulo 298 scheivlak 240 scheivlak 30 Makarias 272 DutchQuicksilver358 scheivlak 288 Anderis 233 GTA 29 Brawn BGP 001 253 Benchulo 356 Costaz 287 Brawn BGP 001 221 KWSN-DSM 25 Costaz 252 Bleu 355 Anderis 270 Bleu 219 Makarias 25 M2000-5 233 KWSN-DSM 342 KWSN-DSM 255 GTA 210 Bleu 23 SpaceHorseParty 225 LolaB8060 340 LolaB8060 240 * Forecast 134 Benchulo 22 * Current 118 * Current 124 * Current 132 * Current 39 Anderis 20Albon needs 37 more points for a 100% surprise. It will still take a while, but right now it feels pretty inevitable that he'll get there.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Leclerc Russell Sainz Hadjar Tsunoda * Potential 482 * Potential 514 * Potential 436 * Potential 432 * Potential 429 Costaz 385 * Forecast 305 M2000-5 88 * Forecast 24 SpaceHorseParty 65 Bleu 360 noikeee 299 scheivlak 72 GTA 21 Costaz 41 Makarias 349 Makarias 292 SpaceHorseParty 70 Bleu 20 M2000-5 35 GTA 346 scheivlak 270 noikeee 66 Costaz 18 GTA 32 Benchulo 341 DutchQuicksilver257 LolaB8060 65 Anderis 10 LolaB8060 32 Anderis 300 Bleu 240 Bleu 55 Benchulo 10 Bleu 30 LolaB8060 300 Costaz 237 GTA 55 KWSN-DSM 10 noikeee 26 mark f1 290 Anderis 233 KWSN-DSM 50 DutchQuicksilver 9 Anderis 25 scheivlak 290 KWSN-DSM 224 Makarias 47 noikeee 9 mark f1 25 SpaceHorseParty 290 Brawn BGP 001 220 Anderis 45 SpaceHorseParty 8 scheivlak 24 M2000-5 285 LolaB8060 220 Benchulo 45 M2000-5 7 Benchulo 20 Brawn BGP 001 283 mark f1 220 mark f1 45 * Current 7 DutchQuicksilver 18 KWSN-DSM 275 SpaceHorseParty 215 Brawn BGP 001 43 mark f1 6 KWSN-DSM 15 DutchQuicksilver274 Benchulo 208 DutchQuicksilver 43 LolaB8060 5 * Forecast 14 noikeee 272 M2000-5 201 Costaz 42 Brawn BGP 001 4 Makarias 12 * Forecast 195 GTA 200 * Forecast 38 Makarias 4 Brawn BGP 001 10 * Current 57 * Current 89 * Current 11 scheivlak 3 * Current 4Sainz' forecast is heading in the right direction after a slow start to the season.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1929,7 29,7 mark f1 1918,1 33,1 Brawn BGP 001 1904,4 7,4 Bleu 1903,1 33,1 noikeee 1899,0 8,0 DutchQuicksilver 1889,0 8,0 GTA 1885,7 46,7 Anderis 1870,4 8,4 Makarias 1865,4 31,4 M2000-5 1829,3 34,3 Costaz 1824,0 22,0 Benchulo 1820,4 30,4 SpaceHorseParty 1814,0 8,0 KWSN-DSM 1810,0 13,0 LolaB8060 1787,0 8,0Hamilton and Sainz improving helps everyone, Antonelli's DNF hurts some.
