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Schumacher will be World Champion Y2K


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#1 Arnaldo

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 05:21

It will be a case of when and not who. Will Schmacher be World Champion by the British GP? Or will he have to wait until Monza? Whatever race it will happen in will be the question, and the only other uncertainty will be who will come second eventually.

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#2 RaggedEdge

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 06:58

Arrggh, Yes I know it is a flame-bait, but I could resist this thread all of three hours. Arnaldo, I think you mistook the German guy with the Finnish one :)

Seriously however, both of your scenarios are possible, if only unlikely, and rest on Schumi having ultra-superior reliability compared to Hakkinen.

I personally expect nobody to have easy season next year, and the wins will be spread even wider than during 1999. The easy days of having to fight Damon Hill only in a comprable car are long gone.

Reliability will be the key. It would be nice seeing how the titles have been won in F1, but I suspect they tend to go to the guy who finishes most races and is in one of the top teams. OK, 1999 and 1998 it did not work that way, but I think it tends to hold overall.

To highlight this, in 1999 Schumacher started behind Hakkinen and finished ahead only in Monaco (this holds for Irvine as well!). Michael has done similar feat (beating Hakkinen from behind) seven times during the whole of his career. That is less than one race per season. It is much easier to pick wins when the other guy is out of the race either terminally (e.g. Canada 1998) or just crippled (e.g. Hungary 1998).

The same, but in reverse, of course holds for the other top dog, Hakkinen, and pretenders like Coulthard, Barrichello, and Frentzen.


#3 Nikolas Garth

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 08:13

Rags,
I think a better picture of looking at Hakky vs Schuey might be Argentina 98 and Monza 98 where Schuey overtook Hakky on track.

#4 Grano

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 12:01

Thanks Arnaldo, you just saved me a lot of sunday afternoons. Can you tell me who will win the finnish presidential election too? Or better still the Lotto numbers for next week?

God damned idiotical threads....

#5 Arnaldo

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 13:36

Grano, no probs.
Answer to your first question, it will be Mika Hakinen
Answer to you question 2, it is 3, 8, 11, 13, 16, 22, 28, 32.
However, some of you think that I was baiting - I assure you I am not. I just figured that after 4 years with Ferrari, Scummi (who is not my favourite driver, if you have not caught on by now) Ferrari will finally get their act together, good luck will finally catch up with them, and also, everyone tells me that Scummi is the best driver in F1. The only fly in the ointment is that Scummi will not have a schu shine boy in Barrichelo like Eddie.


#6 RaggedEdge

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Posted 19 December 1999 - 18:32

Nik,

Sure, but you know, since Schumi was in front of the inhuman qualifier Hakkinen, his car was so much better you would not believe it. :)

Actually, Argentina 1998 is in my mind the cleanest fight Schumi has won over Hakkinen, although Hakkinen was blocked by HHF which dropped him behind Schumi.

Monza 1998, Schumi again started in front, made bad start, and overtook Hakk with problems with tyres during Coulthard smoke-screen (buy FIA 1998 review video, the some was really thick), but despite this, Hakkinen caught Schumi (2s gap) before his brakes failed, so in the end none of this counted, since Schumi would have won anyway (or Irvine who moved over for Schumi).

I think my point still holds, beating the other guy on track is very difficult and rare. Realibility counts for much more than such bravado.

BTW, Hakkine has passed Schumi from behind six times during his career, so the stakes are very even.


#7 The Kanisteri

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 02:23

Michael Schumacher champ in 2000?
Of course!And the moon is cheese and Ben Johnsson is clean.

:)

#8 tom

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 04:17

sorry ranoldo , but we've heard that ['scumi's gonna win it next year'] , WAY too often , and don't you learn from watching the past 3 seasons , that schumi didn't win when you guys said 'he'll win it next year'.........

you guys are casting a spell on scumi, your better off to say ....."oh , i doubt he'll win another title" ....... works for me, and look what mika's been doing.....

you guys schould try it some time......

-------------------------------------------

irvine = w@nker

#9 Daemon

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 05:18

I for one will put even money for MS and MH to win. I would have said MS would win it in 2000 if MH was at his '98 standard, but I think he has fit into the mould of dual world champion well and his confidence has gone sky high after saving the WDC this year with his brilliant drive at Suzuka.

Y2K is certainly going to be an entertaining season, with 2 dual and 1 WDC in competetive cars (BAR should be one of the top 5 with Honda power). At this stage though, it's even money on MS and MH from where I stand.

#10 RaggedEdge

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 05:36

I agree with Daemon, 50-50 sounds about right, but of course I hope Mika will walk it.


#11 Arnaldo

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 09:16

If Mika wins the WDC next year, all the knowledgeables like Murray, and Alan Jones, etc. will still insist that MS is the best driver in the World. Why not set our sails to suit the wind??

#12 yr

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Posted 20 December 1999 - 12:42

Arnaldo,

Yes they do, i´m afraid. But that just shows there
isn´t any credibility on the words of those guys.
They say so, because MS won in 94-95 against
Williams which everybody thought to be superior.

If MH wins his third WDC in a row (!), even with
worse reliabilty/tactics etc, M&M and other
"knowledgeables" will still insist MS is the best.

I wonder how long will it take for them to see the
things as they are, not how they were?

#13 Daemon

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Posted 21 December 1999 - 04:54

Arnaldo, I doubt that very much. At the moment, most F1 notable say Schuey is the best because the guy has been so consistent over the last 6 years, something no-one else has been able to do (lack of good car, lack of luck).

I'm a Schuey fan and I think he is the better driver, but as I stated earlier in this thread, Mika sure has lifted his standard well above my expectations, and was looking mighty impressive toward the end of the season '99.

I think that the Ferrari's and McLaren's will be very close next season, and that who ever wins the Championship for 2000 will be the better driver. I'm just waiting to see what the difference in speed of the two cars is, before I jump to conclusions.

If Mika wins next year, then I will believe he is the better driver, as he will have 3 WDC's to Schummi's 2, and that ladies and gentlemen, is what counts, point's on the board. :)

#14 Daemon

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Posted 21 December 1999 - 05:04

Yr,

Alan Jones, Murray Walker, Nelson Piquet and "notables", ie ex-driver and team staff don't know whats going on these days.

I think you should have a read of your post and you'll probably laugh as hard as I did. These guys used to do what we call entertainment for a living, and as such you would expect that they keep contact and friends within the teams and paddock.

They would, without a doubt, have much more of an idea of whats going on in F1 and what talent is.

I agree with you that they do seem biased, but the are well informed and intelligent people who have personal experience in F1. If the majority of people in the buisness of F1 think Schuey is the best, then you could be excused for thinking that they are right.

I just posted earlier that I think that Schuey and Mika are on a par as they both have 2 WDCs. The majority of informed people don't rate Mika at Schuey's level, because he hasn't been at the top for more than two years.

#15 JUKS

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Posted 21 December 1999 - 07:14

We heard the same promise in December 1996... oh, and December 1997...hmpf... AND December 1998... One more? Why not...

BTW When is he going to deliver???

#16 Arnaldo

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Posted 21 December 1999 - 08:23

JUKS,
Read my lips - Y2K.
I never doubted that MS was a great driver from way back. I just don't like the man's ethics, that's all. BUT, as I said earlier, good luck will finally catch up with him and his team next year, and he will win easily. This is just a prediction, not a desire nor a statemet by a loyal fan. There have been too many stuff ups in past seasons, including the tricycle pit stop of this year, and Ferrari must have a change of luck this coming season. As for McLaren, if MH had the support that Eddie gave at Ferrari, then that would be a totally different story. However, as much as some believe in the team theory, you cannot mix an individual race with a team race these days, because it will damage the confidence of the driver who has to move over. OK. I accept that Alan Jones was a great, he was my favourite driver. BUT that doesn't mean they cannot have favourites themselves. And Murray is just plain silly. The only reason he is on is because he doesn't stop gabbling, so that you know all the time that your TV and the commentary hasn't gone on the blink. I re-iterate: MS will win the Championship well before the last race next year. Failing that, I will jump into the Brisbane River. Therre!! That's putting it on the line.

#17 Grano

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Posted 21 December 1999 - 19:10

Better start practising swimming then Arnaldo....

#18 Bruce

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Posted 22 December 1999 - 00:30

Unfortunately for the basis of your prediction, Arnaldo, a surfeit of "bad luck" is not necessarily the a guarantee of good luck in the following season.... for proof of this, look no further than Chris Amon.

MS is generally (though not by me) regarded as the most complete and best driver in F1 today. Thus at the start of each season, much of the speculation centres around how MS is going to win the WDC... Ferrari has anually come out with pre season statements about how MS will be WDC for SURE this year - (something that is not considered hubris - although BAR suggesting a win in their first year was...) - for sure... and each year they have been unable to come through.

The fact that MS has had an equal best car or close to it for the past 2 to 3 seasons and has been unable to convert has surprisingly left his reputation as the best driver untouched.... equally surprising, MH has won 2 consecutive WDCs and has not been able to shake the reputation of someone beating the best guy because his car is way better. it seems that people have made up their minds, and are willing to wait a very long time for MS to win the WDC and prove them right.

So each year, we are greeted with predictions that surely THIS must be MS's year... we heard it in 1997, 1998, 1999.... in 1997 we are told that Ferrari didn't quite get it together and MS fought a valiant rearguard action to take it to the final race.... ditto 1998, and in 1999 of course, he was on cruise control for the WDC and only lost it because of his Silverstone accident... Wonder what the excuse will be next year, should he fail to win?

I'm not saying that MS will not win - he is one of the best drivers in one of the top 2 teams (possibly THE top team), so of course the possibility exists that he will win. But the liklihood of MS winning is no greater than the liklihood of MH, and possibly others.

#19 JUKS

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Posted 22 December 1999 - 05:08

Arnaldo

will you post the pics of your swim here???

;);)

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#20 Arnaldo

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Posted 22 December 1999 - 17:53

Juks,
I promise. I will be moving in to an apartment right next to the Brisbane River, hopefully in March, and I will definitely make sure that if MS does not win the WDC before the end of the season, I will jump in.
After, all, I did promise to ride a bike from Cooma to Melbourne if Z-Man ever got on the podium last year. Safest bet ever. I also backed just one horse for the melbourne Cup last year!! You got it: Rogan Josh. The good luck is finally catching up on some of us. Hopefully, MS will save me from a dunking next year.

#21 Sean L

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Posted 22 December 1999 - 08:03

Arnaldo, I reckon you're going to be safe from the sharks ;)

#22 Brent

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 04:41

Interesting :)

#23 magnum

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 04:51

Fascinating post - will Schumacher be WDC by the British Grand Prix? Well let's see here - Schumacher wins all the GP's including the British GP - Mika doesn;t finish any by the British GP - that would give Schumacher the grand total of, uhm ... 40 points - with another 130 points available ... mmmm ...

Somoene's been at the turpentine again :rolleyes:



#24 mono-posto

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 07:48

magnum,

I think you failed to realize that this was all posted before the 2000 calender was released, so Arnaldo was predicting Silverstone based on it's traditional date.

Cut the guy some slack.

#25 selena

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 08:29

All predictors must exercise caution. There is still a long way to go. Perhaps the winner of the WDC may not be the top two drivers mentioned after all and the race may just go down the wire to Sepang.

#26 Dudley

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 09:02

Who would have predicted last years result after 2 rounds? :)

Personally, my take is that mika is now the better qualifyer than MS, but Ms is a more consistent racer.

The reason MH never quite got the same respect is that he spent 94-96 achieving 4/5ths of bugger all, even against some reletively modest team-mates.

I do remember him in 1991 and 92 in the rapidly dying Lotus team, and him outqualifying Senna on his McLaren debut. Classic.

#27 The RedBaron

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 09:12

Schuey will do it this season thats my gut feeling. He is motivated don't worry about that and at last he has a car that is better than Macs in some aspects and only fractionally slower in straight line speed.
Barring accidents he will convert his 3rd WDC
with Mika coming 2nd. Whether Mika will be close depends on the next few races. If the next 2-3 races he is still having DNF or not winning, then Schuey will probably have to much of a cushion for Mika to catch up.

#28 Chris G.

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 09:24

Haug "reportedly" quitting...Dennis, breaking at the stitches...Hakk, getting DC's luck from last year...DC, DC.

It's amazing how a team can be viewed when it starts losing (think: Ferrari and 3 wheel pitstop).

Merc is strong, they'll be back...I think.



#29 magnum

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Posted 31 March 2000 - 12:54

Mono thx for pointing that out - i never look at the dates ... still, i wasn;t trying to be obnoxious (though on second reading it does appear to be) - sorry ...