38 replies to this topic

[Schummy]

I propose you a guess game I've played with friends years ago. It consists in guessing the three firsts in F1 races. You do an ordered guess (i.e. MS-JPM-RS) and a score is given according to real podium results. The scoring system is as explained here:

Suppose you do the guess MS-JPM-RS.

If MS is 1st, 3 points
if MS is 2nd, 2 points
if MS is 3rd, 1 point

If JPM is 1st, 2 points
if JPM is 2nd, 2 points
if JPM is 3rd, 1 point

If RS is 1st, 2nd or 3rd, 1 point

It another driver makes a podium position, it doesn't give any points.

The key for this system is not "gambling" on the exact position but to do a realistic shot at the relative merit of each driver in that GP. For instance, you are not penalized for JPM being first and not 2nd, as the penalty comes by not scoring with MS's first position.

In order to have a reference I will enter two "dummy" players: Bernie and Max (the names were chosen randomly ;) ). Bernie always guesses the firsts three qualifyers, and Max always guesses the firsts three classified in WDC current points table. Can you outscore B&M?

Any guess can be done after Saturday's qualify session, and before one hour before the official first start of the race (in case someone wants to do a guess, anyway!)

[KaVkAzI GaNgStA]

jpm, ms, dc

[garth_b]

mont-msch-barr

[Ghostrider]

mont-rsch-msch

[Zawed]

mont-barr-coul

[Viss1]

MS-JPM-RS

[TT6]

Räik-Coul-Mont

(Another Ferrari will be disqualified, another will collide with one of the Williams cars. Guess which one!)

[DeathMasteR]

Mont - MSH - Raik

[CaptnMark]

mont/msch/rsch

[Hi Test]

coul-mont-rsch

[Ric Bol]

mont/rsch/msch

[LB]

Monty/ MS / Coul

[Schummy]

I've done a little stat about the 11 first posts (from kavkazi to LB):

Total included:
jpm 11 (100%)
ms 8 (73%)
dc 5 (45%)
rs 5 (45%)
kr 2 (22%)
rb 2 (22%)

Winner:
jpm 8 (73%)
ms 1 (9%)
dc 1 (9%)
kr 1 (9%)

Teams Total:
Williams 16
Ferrari 10
McLaren 7

jpm outscore ms in 10 to 1 in 11 guesses.
ms outscore dc 8 to 3
ms outscore rs 6 to 3
dc outscore rs 5 to 4

at the moment, nobody has been brave enough to guess a podium finish to any non Fe/Wi/Mc driver ;)

I remind you that our "Max" bot guess is MS-JPM-RS (current three firsts WDC classifieds), and "Bernie" will "say" us his/its guess after Saturday qualifying sesion ;)

BTW and OT: Viss1, very nice car paintings. and greets to Devo ("Devowet" is a classic )

[Schummy]

LOL The "Frown face" at the beginning was an unintended artifact, of course

[lukywill]

mont-barr-coul

[The Sleeper]

JPM, MS, KR

[Schuting Star]

JPM-MSch-NH

Schummy, I take it you assuming, probably correctly, that everyone citing MS is referring to Michael and not Mika?

[Schummy]

You are right, there can be a confussion about Salo and M Schumacher. I think it's safe to think every "MS" until now is for Schumacher but it is better to write it in a clearer way.

Thanks.

PS: BTW, if someone is going to guess a podium for Salo for Brazil I'd recommend him/her a good pair of glasses Anyway, I'd like to see another good weekend for Toyota. I don't know why but I like that team.

[RAD]

JPM - RSCH - Msch

[MONTOYASPEED]

JPM/RS/RB

[Estwald]

Msch/jpm/Rsch

[smarty]

JPM-RSCH-MSCH

[AD]

MS - JPM - RS

[gerry nassar]

MS - JPM - RS

[JensonFan]

JPM - RS - MS

[SeanValen]

MS-JPM-RB

[skylark68]

mont-coul-rsch

[ExcessIsBest]

msch/coul/raik

[fisichella_2001]

MSch/RSch/Coul

[Schummy]

Situation after the first 25 guesses (from KaVkAzI to fisichella_2001)
(Atention: when I read "ms" I assume it is for Michael Schumacher, not Mika Salo)

Times guessed in podium:
jpm 23 (92%)
msh 19 (76%)
rs 14 (56%)
dc 9 (36%)
kr 5 (20%)
rb 4 (16%)
nh 1 (4%)

Times as winner:
jpm 16 (64%)
msh 7 (28%)
dc 1 (4%)
kr 1 (4%)

Total by teams:
Williams 37
Ferrari 23
McLaren 14
Sauber 1

Some curious things: JPM and MSH polarize a lot of support, poor RB is almost overlooked even for a podium. A lot of people see JPM as strong favorite for winning yet nobody pick Ralf, although people see him easily in podium. People prefers Williams to Ferrari, and Macs are a distant third. Sauber get an heroic representant below the Three Allmighty.

[alain]

Msch-Mont-Barr

[mach4]

RB-JPM-FM

[Viss1]

Originally posted by Schummy
BTW and OT: Viss1, very nice car paintings. and greets to Devo ("Devowet" is a classic )

Thanks! I'll tell Devo he has a secret admirer!

Hey, my thousandth post!

[Makarias]

MSch-Mont-RSch

[dynamite7]

Msch-Mont-Rsch

[sek]

msch-mont-coul

[Schummy]

I have just seen Brazil qualif session (saved in tape). Then, our "Bernie" bot will do the guess JPM-MSH-RS according to the three firsts grid position.

I remind you that guesses can be put until one hour before the first official start of the race. We will use the "official" Atlasf1 forum clock to resolve any doubt we can have. If I'm right, race start is at 14:00 Brazilian hour.

TAKE CARE about any summertime hour change you can have in your country! It would a disaster if anybody miss the start because of that!

As I usually tape the race and see it hours after, I'll do the "official" scoring tomorrow well after the race.

Thanks to everyone who already made his/her guess here, and to those who will do it before the race.

[scheivlak]

JPM-RSch-MSch

[Schummy]

Just testing