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F1 statistics are irrelevant


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Poll: F1 statistics are irrelevant (98 member(s) have cast votes)

  1. Yes, I agree, stats are misleading (72 votes [73.47%])

    Percentage of vote: 73.47%

  2. No, stats show the exact talent of a driver (26 votes [26.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.53%

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#1 RedFever

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 21:20

I always thought F1 statistics are the most irrelevant aspect of the sport. Comparing drivers in different cars already makes no sense, comparing drivers in different years make even less sense, comparing drivers in different eras makes absolutely no sense. Yet, statistics are here repeatedly haralded as the only scientific way to discern the winners from the losers, the real talent from the wannabes. I beg to disagree.

Just look at the drivers with the most wins ever:

1 M.Schumacher 64
2 Alain Prost 51
3 Ayrton Senna 41
4 Nigel Mansell 31
5 Jackie Stewart

If stats had any meaning whatsoever, we would be faced with an interesting aspect: all the best drivers in F1's history raced in the last 20 years........The first driver to have raced over 20 years ago was Stewart, only 5th in the all-time winners list. I guess better nutrition is causing modern drivers to be better than their predecessors....... :rolleyes: Obviously, this is far from truth. F1 since the late 70s has changed dramatically and more and more one or two teams dominate an entire season, allowing their top drivers t oscore 8-10 wins in one single season. That is more than a top driver like Scheckter scored in his whole career. Even Barichello has as many wins already as WDC Farina and Keke Rosberg scored in their entire careers and more than Phil Hill, Hawthorn, McLaren, Von Trips, etc.

Stats don't show that nowadays the car is even more relevant than ever. In the 50s and 60s, the car was important, but talent could still compensate for a mdium car. In the 70s, occassionally you had drivers like Villeneuve or Peterson score the occasional victory with inferior material, but it started being a rare event. Today it is simply impossible. Also, it was not uncommon f0r 6-7 drivers and 4-5 teams to win races. Today you have one or two teams win all the races. Statistics don't show this at all, statistics don't tell you that Peterson could win in Monza with a March but there is no way Schumacher today could even get on the podium in Monza with a Jordan.

Besides, still in 1965 there were only 10 GPs in one season, 7 in 1955, less than Schumacher, Prost, Mansell or Senna won in one season when they drove a dominant car. Therefore the weight is totally off and comparing number of wins, poles and fast laps between modern drivers and drivers of the 70s or even more so, the 60s and 50s makes absolutely no sense (with 5-10 wins back then you could be a great like Peterson, Villeneuve, Hunt, Surtees, Farina, etc. and today you wouldn't even be Coulthard.....).

Now, Idon't mean to take anything away from drivers like Prost, Senna or Schumacher. I think these guys would have been successful in any era, motoracing is a mind game more than a physical game, so their minds would have allowed them to prevail anyway. Al I am trying to say is that statistics only show a limited and biased view of F1 and the drivers and that Senna and Schumacher and Prost, while top drivers for sure, are not 2 or 3 times better than Fangio, Lauda, Stewart or Jimmi Clark, as the stats seem to indicate. Agree or not?

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#2 The Voice of Reason

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 21:35

I have to agree. All any driver can hope to prove is that he is the best of his era. Senna was. Schumacher is. But competition also plays a part. How many races would Schumy have won if Senna had raced the Williams until '97? How many races would Prost have won if Senna hadn't been around and vice-versa? How many races would Schumy have won if Ferrari had put Hakkinen in the 2nd car?

Statistics are fun but they don't provide a real measure of greatness.

#3 AyePirate

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 21:37

Maybe not meaningless, but like you say there are so many variables that
one on comparison between drivers in the same era are difficult and between
drivers in different eras impossible. Besides, a great driver is an artist, and
art is purely subjective.

#4 RedFever

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 22:17

"Besides, a great driver is an artist, and
art is purely subjective."

That is probably the best comment I read on this BB ever......... :clap:

#5 zooropa21

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 23:30

Great Posts :up:

A stat will never help me decide who is my favorite driver; that is for sure. Stats are inevitable though. They are the food for the bad journalist plate. Fans who live and die by stats should learn better.



Zooropa21 :cool:

#6 Ray Bell

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 23:32

It is most relevant that there were so few races each season...

Ten races in 1965 is mentioned... but even in 1962 there was only seven, IIRC, and if you go back to 1955 when races were dropped in the wake of the Le Mans disaster it shows how big an impact the number of races might mean.

Additionally, drivers tend to live longer these days, and they certainly get into F1 a lot younger, making their potential career length more impressive.

Another poor comparison is in points scored... when there were different scoring systems in place!

And pole positions... when it was the car that scored the grid spot irrespective of who was to drive it on race day...

#7 gerry nassar

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 01:40

Yes - Red Fever scores with the thread of the year. :clap:

Ive been trying to say the same thing in many threads over the years. F1 has mroe variables that can determine the results than any other sport. There are so many what if's that you can never get an accurate picture from stats.

#8 colejk

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 02:48

Stats are the same for every sport or biz. They can be misleading but at the same time
they don't lie. To compare stats of individuals over different decades can be deceiving.
But we need tangible numbers to grade success. It's just the way it is. How else can you do it?
It's the only subjective way to do it.

Barry Bonds or Mark Mcguire never played with Babe Ruth. Bobby Orr never played angainst Gretzky. Pele never played against Ronaldo and so on.
BUT we can't take anything away from any of them because they all accomplished something amazing, which we can base upon their stats.

I saw Prost, Mansell, Senna, Schumacher all race live and on TV, but I never saw Jackie Stewart
race. How do I know he was any good? Because of what Joe Blow says? NO because of what he accomplished, which I can tell by his stats.

ALSO, to consistently achieve success year after year in ANY sport or biz is not luck but skill and talent. Anybody can have a one off year if the conditions are right (a la ) Damon Hill and in my opinion Mika Hakkinen, but year after year, that's friggin tough.

#9 gerry nassar

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 03:02

Originally posted by colejk
ALSO, to consistently achieve success year after year in ANY sport or biz is not luck but skill and talent. Anybody can have a one off year if the conditions are right (a la ) Damon Hill and in my opinion Mika Hakkinen, but year after year, that's friggin tough.


Luck definately comes into it in F1 as so much is reliant on the car staying together for a race distance - where as this is not a problem in ball sports. If theres a problem with your raquet in tennis - you just reach into your bag and get a new one.

As for Hakkinen - just watch races from 97,98,99 and especially 00 and you cant say Hakkinen's success was a one off.

#10 Bart

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 03:57

If statistics are meaningless, then there is no way to compare drivers. You have to do it with numbers. While RedFever "begs to disagree" that stats are the only scientific way, he doesn't suggest another scientific method and I don't think "because I say so" counts :)

Of course, statistics have to be used properly, and that's where it becomes difficult. So difficult, in fact, that most people don't bother. For number of race wins, for example, you need to do some form of normalization by, for example, number of race starts. That helps to account for the fact that there are more races per season recently than there often were in the past. But then perhaps you need to account for the fact that the machinery is often a larger factor than the driver -- Damon Hill has a high win/start ratio, but isn't really a great driver (IMHO). This is where things start to get murky and subjective.

For example, some of you may recall my defence of Massa's performance this year by attempting to compare his performance compared to Heidfeld with Raikkonen's performance compared to Heidfeld in 2001. Now, I obviously don't wish to open up this can of worms again, but I decided to look at which Sauber driver finished ahead in each of the races, or who was ahead when one of them retired. This doesn't seem to be a dreadful idea, but I also elected to exclude all races where one of the drivers retired before the first round of pit stops, since I did not know for sure that the two drivers were on the same strategy, and it would be unfair to count a result when one was ahead simply because of a lighter fuel load. A priori, that seems reasonable to me, but doing so helped Massa because in a few races he crashed out early on due to driver error, but I didn't count those. This wasn't my deliberate intention, but because it helped FM and my original claim was that FM was deserving of an F1 seat, I was accused of being biased. So this one ran and ran (but we don't want to discuss it here). If you're making a statistical comparison, you need to agree the ground rules first, and that's difficult because it always involves making adjustments, and both sides can usually tell what affect an adjustment will have and so will agree to it only if it doesn't hurt their predetermined point of view.

So, in a broad context, stats have very limited usefulness, usually because of the number of factors involved. It's a complicated sport, but all are. In the NFL, John Elway has the most come-from-behind wins. Why? Part of it is because he's good, but the biggest factors are (a) he played lots of games, and (b) his team was behind a lot near the end of the game. (a) is neutral with regard to his talent, but (b) suggests he's not as good as he could have been. The formula for Quarterback Rating is quite bizarre and indicates that even in a game where statistics are bandied about everywhere, it's kind of tricky to come up with a single number which can be used to compare things. Arguably F1 is better than some sports because you can compare two drivers in the same car (unless one of them is Michael Schumacher) who have the same goal (to finish as high as possible on Sunday). This is why I object to comparisons based on qualifying performance, because both drivers may not be attempting to qualify as high as possible on the grid (see Spa 2002, where DC was on the harder compound Michelins and was 4 places behind KR on the grid, but was running ahead of him in the race).

For an example where I think statistics do say something, look at the number of wins Prost and Senna have. Now look at the number of pole positions they each have. I think this tells you quite a lot about their different driving styles.

#11 Groom

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 04:12

Well... nice post RedFever but ... I disagree... :eek:


The stats you mention (i.e., number of wins, number of poles etc.) are kid's stuff. Even more "complicated" things that might come up in Sport's magazines (e.g., weighted averages etc) are still for the average fan who knows how to compute averages and believes that he/she can determine if MS is better than Senna. So with respect to those you are right. All of them are worthless... :down:

BUT

There are scientific methods and software tools available to make such decisions (e.g., who is better Fangio or Senna?). Essentially large corporations are faced with similar decisions (similar in the sense that they want to compare apples to oranges) frequently. What complicates things in these decisions is that some of the variables that you need to take into account are subjective (e.g. Did Senna had teamates that were "better" than those Schumacher had?). However the research community is well aware of the problem and there have been some proposals. One of the more popular ones is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). :confused:

Now I don't have the time to go through the whole thing but I just wanted to say that it is doable.

There is an article that was published some time ago that attempts a comparison between records set by different athletes in different sports and different eras that uses AHP.

B. Golden, E. A. Wasil "Ranking Outstanding Sports Records" Interfaces 17/5, 32-42. (1987) :

also you can visit www.expertchoice.com . They sell software that helps you implement AHP but unfortunately the price is a little bit high (for me anyway). They say quite a few on their website concerning AHP. :


So it takes more effort to find the right answer but that doesn't mean there is no right answer or that stats are worthless in general. :wave:

#12 HP

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 05:27

Not all F1 statistics are irrelevant.

Not even talking about sponsors and teams

"For a driver statistics are a bit like luck, they make their own."

The problem is how statistics are applied. Statistics show trends, but statistics don't consider circumstances (what if situations) unless tailored specifically for it.

Most people use statistics in the context you pointed out. I refer to this as a historical view, and those views are always debatable.

But if I were a team manager and I have to hire a new driver, I will look at the trend statistics are showing me, as part of my decision making process.

#13 Jackman

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 05:36

Does this mean that Jacques isn't 25% better than his dad?

#14 Ray Bell

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 05:43

Good question...

Of course, he has won 100% more titles than his father... so maybe it has to be true!

#15 Spamula One

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 05:44

Nice rebuttals Bart and Groom.

Originally posted by Hp
But if I were a team manager and I have to hire a new driver, I will look at the trend statistics are showing me, as part of my decision making process.



Good point, because most team managers are doing important stuff and don't necesarily have time to watch all lower formulae and well, circumstance cannot factor in their decisions. In our case, those that were fortunate to watch historical races have an opportunity to witness specific events like retiring in the last lap, or getting hit by another competitior in a race where the driver was sure to win.

Stats count but, all aforementioned drivers are great, no matter what the stats say.

#16 vogtsophob

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 06:10

admited, my statistics is not very impressive
(wds: 0, wins: 0, points: 0, fastest laps: 0, poles: 0, laps lead: 0)
but if statistics is irrelevant, I herewith claim to be the best driver in
F1 history! :)

#17 HSJ

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 07:43

Great thread! :up:

I think it should be obvious: stats are not meaningless, but they're not everything either. Using fuzzy logic, we can say that the truth lies somewhere in between. :)

#18 K-One

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 08:16

HSJ or some other finnish BB poster...

Would You or someone else translate JV's interview in TS or IL? JV said again some interesting things which would probably make great thread...

#19 maclaren

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 08:42

There has been many comments by JV recently. Now he wonders why Toyota axad Salo as 2002 was Salo's best season so far. Few days ago there was some anti-MS and anti-youngster stuff too.

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#20 HSJ

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:45

Originally posted by K-One
HSJ or some other finnish BB poster...

Would You or someone else translate JV's interview in TS or IL? JV said again some interesting things which would probably make great thread...


Here are some of the pieces at least, I'm not sure whether I've even seen the whole thing. I know I haven't read TS or IL, but these bits are from www.turunsanomat.fi

From http://www.turunsano...1:1,111864,2002

Salon potkut
ikävä yllätys
Villeneuvelle


F1-sähkeet 11.12.
Mika Salo kuuluu vuoden 1997 maailmanmestari Jacques Villeneuven ystäväpiiriin ja kanadalaistähti onkin pahoillaan Mikan poistumisesta F1-kuvioista.
- En käsitä Toyotan päätöstä antaa Salolle potkut. Se oli aikamoinen yllätys, kun Mika ajoi uransa toistaiseksi parhaan F1-kauden, Villeneuve vuodattaa.
TS/Lontoo



My translation:

JV surprised to see Salo get sacked

Mika Salo is a friend of JV's, and JV is sad to see Salo leave F1. "I don't understand Toyota's decision to let Salo go. It was a big surprise when Mika just drove his best season so far in F1.





From http://www.turunsano...1:1,111862,2002

Villeneuve soimaa Räikköstä
Ranskan voiton hukkaamisesta


Turun Sanomat, Lontoo

Jacques Villeneuve on edelleen katkera Kimi Räikköselle ja McLarenille, jotka yhdistivät voimansa ja estivät 31-vuotiasta kanadalaistähteä nappaamasta tavoittelemaansa tallipaikkaa.
- Well... Kimillä oli yksi loistava tilaisuus voittaa Grand Prix, mutta hän liukastui öljyyn, joka oli siellä vain häntä varten. Kaikki tuntuivat surevan Kimin puolesta, mutta täysin turhaan. Oli Kimin omaa typeryyttä, että hän onnistui olemaan nappaamatta voittoa, jota niin tarjottiin, Villeneuve jyrähtää.
Vuoden 1997 maailmanmestari ei kuitenkaan uskalla ennustaa, että Ranskan kakkostila jäisi nuoren suomalaisen urahuipuksi.
- Menneellä kaudella Kimi ei ajanut yhtään paremmin kuin Sauberilla. Enpä tiedä. Kyseessä oli kuitenkin jo Kimin toinen kausi, jolloin kokemusta pitäisi olla koossa jo enemmän.

Villeneuve arvosti
Häkkisen kylmyyttä
Villeneuve luonnollisesti näkisi ikätoverinsa Mika Häkkisen mieluummin kisatöissä kuin Räikkösen.
- Kimi on nopea ja vaikuttaa kahden kesken ihan mukavalta kaverilta. Olen nähnyt hänen nauravankin. Onko Kimi sitten oikea mies korvaamaan Häkkisen? Siihen ei ainakaan viime kauden perusteella saatu vielä vastausta. Kenties McLarenin auto ei ollut tarpeen hyvä.
- En osaa sanoa, jäikö Häkkinen aliarvostetuksi kuljettajaksi. Mika oli vähän kylmä, mutta se kuuluu suomalaisuuteen. Jokainen tuntemani suomalainen on saattanut olla lämmin sisältä, mutta ulkoisesti he ovat kuin jääkimpaleita. Kun sellaisen luonteen yhdistää McLarenin ilmapiiriin, se on jo vähän liikaa...
- Michael Schumacher puhuu välillä kuin runoilija, mutta se on pelkkää sanahelinää. Häkkinen ei näyttänyt tunteitaan, mutta hän oli aina suoraviivainen kilpakuljettaja, hyvin nopea ja hyvin reilu. Jos hänellä ei ollut sanottavaa, se johtui siitä, että hän ei ajatellut mitään. Jos ei ole sanottavaa, on parempi pitää suu kiinni kuin puhua pulputtaa sanomatta mitään.



My translation (just JV's comments)

JV blames Kimi for losing the win at Magny Cours

"Well... Kimi had one great chance to win a grand prix, but he slipped on oil that was there just [only] for him. Everybody were sorry for Kimi, but for no reason really. It was Kimi's own stupidity for not winning a race that was given to him on a platter.

"In the past season Kimi did not drive any better than he did at Sauber. I don't know. It was Kimi's second season already and he should be more experienced."


Villeneuve valued Häkkinen's coolness

"Kimi is a fast driver and seems like a nice guy when you're alone with him. I've even seen him laugh! Is Kimi the right man to replace Häkkinen? We didn't get the answer based on last season. Perhaps the McLaren car wasn't good enough.

"I don't know if Mika has remained an underrated driver. Mika was a bit cold, but that's part of being Finnish. Every Finn I've known (may) have been warm inside, but been cold on the outside. When you combine that kind of character with the McLaren character, it is a bit too much...

"Michael Schumacher speaks like a poet at times, but they're just words. Häkkinen did not show emotions, but was always straightforward as a driver, very fast and very fair. If he had nothing to say it was because he wasn't thinking anything. [What the...? I suspect he meant, or even said but was translated erroneusly into Finnish, that Mika just didn't feel like contributing; surely he was still THINKING something! It is quite impossible to not think at all!] If you have nothing to say it is better to shut up rather than talk and talk without saying anything."




From http://www.turunsano...1:1,111858,2002

Montoyan röyhkeys
Villeneuven mieleen


Turun Sanomat, Lontoo
Jacques Villeneuve arvostaa Juan Pablo Montoyan nousun kohti F1-huippua huomattavasti korkeammalle kuin Kimi Räikkösen.
- Loistojuttu, kun tulee nuori kuljettaja, joka yrittää kaataa tottuja rata-aitoja. Mutta jos noita raja-aitoja ei olisi, kuka välittäisikään nuorista kuljettajista?
- Montoya jyrää röyhkeästi ylöspäin. Hän tunkeutui esiin eikä ainakaan pidä suutaan supussa. Hän tarjoaa kansalle viihdettä ja se on upeaa.
- Monet muut nuoret ovat päässeet pinnalle joutumatta juuri hikoilemaan. Montoya puski F3000-mestariksi, voitti IndyCar -tittelin ja todella raatoi tiensä F1-tasolle.
- Kaikki muut on valittu Formula Fordeista, kun eräät tallit uskovat pystyvänsä muokkaamaan näille tietynlaisen persoonallisuuden ja myymään heidät sitten eteenpäin isommille yrityksille.
- Niin on käynyt monelle nuorelle kuljettajalle eikä se ainakaan minusta ole edullista F1-urheilulle. Pari voisi vielä menetellä, mutta ei sentään joka vuosi. Jos niin käy, onko millään enää mitään väliä?
- Jean Alesin menetys viime vuonna sattui pahasti ja jos Eddie Irvinelle ei löydy enää tallipaikkaa, F1 kärsii entistä enemmän. Tämä on surullista kehitystä.



My translation of JV's comments:

Villeneuve likes Montoya's arrogance [HELP! Arrogance is not the word I'm really looking for, but I'm in a bit of a hurry and can't get the right word into my mind right now. Anybody else? Please! Arrogance is just the word that comes to mind right now, it is fairly close to what is meant, but still not quite accurate.]

"I think it is great to have a young driver that tries to pull down the established things/marks/ways. [I'm not sure what would be the perfect word to use here.] But if those established things/marks/ways were not there, who would care about the young drivers?

"Montoya drives forward with arrogance [again the wrong word: arrogance]. He made himself visible and is not afraid to speak his mind. He provides entertainment and it is great!

"Many other young drivers have made it to the top without having to sweat to get there. Montoya carved his way through F3000 by becoming the champion, won the CART title and really worked his way to F1.

"All the others have been picked form Formula Ford because some teams thought they could mould them into certain types of personalities and sell them then to the bigger teams.

"It has happened to many young drivers and in my view at least it is not good for F1. A couple might still do, but certainly not every year. If it still happens, does anything matter anymore?

"Losing Jean Alesi last year hurt bad and if Eddie Irvine will not find a seat anymore F1 will suffer even more. This is a sad development."




If you want to start a thread about those, be my guest. :)

#21 sensible

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:46

stats can get you part of the way when comparing drivers, which I guess iswhat we're talking about. If you're trying to say who was/is the best (which I think is impossible) or more likely who were/are the best then you need the stats to give you your base pool. F1 is about winning over all and if you dont have the wins (ie stats) you're not really in the mix however great you are to watch. However once you get to the point where youve identified the pool of greats, I dont think the stats or anything else can help you refine things further. It always comes down to what each of us as individuals value in the drivers we watch which is why the debate will go on for evermore.

#22 Gemini

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 09:50

see my long time signature as a comment... :)

#23 MJP

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 11:13

Originally posted by vogtsophob
admited, my statistics is not very impressive
(wds: 0, wins: 0, points: 0, fastest laps: 0, poles: 0, laps lead: 0)
but if statistics is irrelevant, I herewith claim to be the best driver in
F1 history! :)


Statistical analysis is useful, if it is used correctly, and it is relevant. By way of an example, to compare race results of top teams with similar background in the same race makes sense to me. I am not as quite sure about an analysis in which Fangio's racing data are not only compared to MS's, but a judgement on their individual skills is concluded.

There is a lot of people on this BB who do continue (IMO) to perpetuate inaccurate statistical analyses, especially if erroneous conclusion supports theirs preconcieved notions, and in process make mockery out of what is actually very fine mathematical tool. Why just not to enjoy a race, and let it be?

#24 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:29

Stats are neither useless nor the exact truth. Stats tell what happened, not how it happened. No driver wins more than 10 GPs without having a tremendous gift, and no one wins more than 30 without having an enormous gift.

The best part of stats is that, when done correctly, they are 100% objective. Driving skill, car control etc is subjective, stats are not.

#25 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:48

It seems that most fans rate the importance of stats after how the stats of their favourite driver/drivers are. For instance; fans of Gilles, Ronnie, Fisichella etc. might fins stats less important than fans of Schumacher, Senna and Prost.

I always have a good laugh however when I see some of the hypocrisy of some fans such as (these are just some examples, there are plenty of others) :

"Stats don't matter, look at Fisichella. He's a great driver with poor stats, he's not won a single race in his career. But you just have to see his record against his teammates to know that he's a great driver".
- In this case, the Fisichella fan makes a claim that Fisi shouldn't be rated according to his statistics, then makes a neat turn and uses stats to claim that Fisi is great.

"Stats don't matter, look at Gilles Villeneuve. He was a great driver with relatively poor stats. But look at some of the things he did. He was once 12 seconds faster than any other driver in a wet practice!"
- Here the Gilles fan conveniently uses the fact that Gilles was 12 seconds faster than any other driver (a statistic) without informing about the circumstances, I.e he was the only driver out there pushing. Basically the same reasoning as when a "stat junkie" uses facts without circumstance

"Stats don't matter, I mean Schumacher's got better stats than Senna, but Senna was a better driver. Look at how many poles Senna's got compared to Schumacher!"
- See case 1 (Fisichella)

etc etc etc etc :smoking:

#26 CLX

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 13:18

Originally posted by vogtsophob
admited, my statistics is not very impressive
(wds: 0, wins: 0, points: 0, fastest laps: 0, poles: 0, laps lead: 0)
but if statistics is irrelevant, I herewith claim to be the best driver in
F1 history! :)


No, you are not. The one thing all great F1 drivers have in common is that they have won races. You didn't win any race, so you can't be the best ever or one of the best ever.;)

#27 masterhit

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 14:11

Originally posted by RedFever
I always thought F1 statistics are the most irrelevant aspect of the sport.


I agree RedFever. The problem with stats is that they can, and are used to substantiate opinions. So they are no more scientific than opinions. Human beings and the world around us are so much more complex than mere stats, soundbytes. headlines, percentages, taglines. The world is not fully understood or predictable. I used to create financial reports for a large company. We knew that the stats were subjective, even the best intentioned stats are as there are extentuating circumstances and whatifs behind the stats. There are people behind the stats. People are part of nature.Nature is unpredicatble. If it rained every race weekend for example, maybe a Minardi would be in the top six in the championship. Its not impossible - nothing is impossible - to state otherwise would be to be proved wrong for every time anybody states that something cannot happen it does.


The world around us is a burning library - for the sources of information are dying. There are species of animals and plants dying by the thousands each year. One can understand why we need to catalogue this information, but even THIS process results in the destuction of yet more resources. One day, we will all be a statistic. And that is the ultimate irrelevance. We are all disposable. Stats contribute to this dehumanisation.

Opinions and science are actually closer than we dare imagine, for both are formed by humans. Both are blurred by the other. The whole concept of "objective" suggests that we know the intimate nature of everything that can/will/would or could exist and happen in the universe and all its permutations. So, in summary - yeah stats are a reflection of opinion.

Here is a total mind binder - everything is a distortion. Any scientist will tell you that the very act of trying to "understand" something means taking one thing and trying to convert it into another. We can't possibly understand something if we can't be sure what it really was to begin with.

Seems that nature is beyond us all. Its playing with us. That's the final irony.


P.S. Check my signature to see an example of how stats are used :)

#28 sensible

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 14:16

Originally posted by Rediscoveryx
It seems that most fans rate the importance of stats after how the stats of their favourite driver/drivers are. For instance; fans of Gilles, Ronnie, Fisichella etc. might fins stats less important than fans of Schumacher, Senna and Prost.

I always have a good laugh however when I see some of the hypocrisy of some fans such as (these are just some examples, there are plenty of others) :

"Stats don't matter, look at Fisichella. He's a great driver with poor stats, he's not won a single race in his career. But you just have to see his record against his teammates to know that he's a great driver".
- In this case, the Fisichella fan makes a claim that Fisi shouldn't be rated according to his statistics, then makes a neat turn and uses stats to claim that Fisi is great.

"Stats don't matter, look at Gilles Villeneuve. He was a great driver with relatively poor stats. But look at some of the things he did. He was once 12 seconds faster than any other driver in a wet practice!"
- Here the Gilles fan conveniently uses the fact that Gilles was 12 seconds faster than any other driver (a statistic) without informing about the circumstances, I.e he was the only driver out there pushing. Basically the same reasoning as when a "stat junkie" uses facts without circumstance

"Stats don't matter, I mean Schumacher's got better stats than Senna, but Senna was a better driver. Look at how many poles Senna's got compared to Schumacher!"
- See case 1 (Fisichella)

etc etc etc etc :smoking:


:lol: :lol: :lol: :up:

#29 siggers

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 15:41

Actually I think Redfevers post is an excellent example of what a well reasoned statistical analysis should look like. Pity you did not provide the figures :wave:

You note a trend towards more racewins per driver in the later years of f1 history. That itself is as much a verifyable statistical fact as your explanation would be. We could look at a ratio of points (or placings) of the top two or three teams over time and measure the trend towards more 'concentrated' championships. The effect of more races per season (and therefore more 'available' wins) and of longer life or career of the drivers can statistically be neutralized by looking at percentage of wins out of participations instead of absolute number of wins. And so on ....

Partially I think the problem is semantics. "Results" certainly are the most trivial form of sports statistics. So, yes, I would absolutely agree that the very modern drivers are not twice or three times better than the earlier champions, but I also would not think that any but the most simplistic and trivialised "statistics" would suggest this conclusion.

In the end, however much we would like to compare apples and pears - we cannot really do it. Sure we can compare certain aspects of apples and pears (how much vitamins and minerals they contribute on average to our diet, the length of their shelf-life, the profit a farmer can make out of growing them), but we cannot decide which is "better". And there has to come a point of utter subjectivity - the realisation of whether I like apples, pears, both, or none. And it is a very strange aspect of fanpsychology indeed that so many fans seem to be unable to say "I like this driver best" instead of "this is the best driver".

Ideally, if one wants for example to evaluate a drivers career achievement one would have to look at every single lap raced, in relation to quality of the car, team support, strength of the other drivers, cars, teams (not even thinking about all aspects of the job outside the race itself). Not only a challenging mass of information to process, but also hard to be sure that one is 'objective'. Of course 'statistics' are helpful in this. Or who can look at the wonderful lap times we get now on atlas for every race, and learn something from it without 'transforming' them in statistics? Every lap by every driver - I cannot look at that table and come to any conclusion if I don't look for the fastest lap, the difference in time between the fastest laps of different drivers, the number of laps of a given driver within a certain range of his fastest lap, the difference in laptimes while being stuck behind another driver and running free ...

In many ways it is like any discussion of 'who is the best driver'. The interest is not in reaching an impossible answer, but in the exchange of arguments, of different ways of bundling an amorphic mess of data, in the checking of subjective memories against hard facts (or toher people's subjective memories), in the evaluation of the relevance of certain aspects. Good example for this is the comparison of qualifying performance of JPM and RS over the last season. One can look at it race by race, considering all relevant cirumstances, one can look at it by number of poles, by number of times they outqualified each other, by average time distance between the two, by biggest difference in placings and times, and by development over the season. All these measures tell a slightly different and sometimes contradictory aspect of the same story, and in the end it is a valuejudgement which of these aspects are more or less important. But ignoring any of them will give an incomplete picture.

#30 holiday

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 16:47

Stats are nothing, results everything.

Results are the single most important criteria, since everybody on the grid wants to succeed and you have to judge the people by what they want. It is all over the globe in every branch of life the same: First you define an objective and then this very objective provides the yardstick for the evaluation of your performance.

But of course results have to framed by other criterias as well, but being artistical is certainly not one of them. It's purely subjective.

Can't argue with success in general, you may only put it into perspective to some degree. That's the bottomline.


BTW Redfever, you know how absurd it is to set up a poll about the value of stats? You use the same means you are trying to deny..... Pretty desperate stuff. It's like saying 54,47% of the people do neglect stats. :lol:

#31 RedFever

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 21:01

"To compare stats of individuals over different decades can be deceiving.
But we need tangible numbers to grade success. It's just the way it is. How else can you do it?"

I never felt the need for a ranking or statistic to tell me this driver is better than that driver because won 22 GP while that one 14. That is total bullshit to me. Drivers like Fangio, Schumacher and Senna had great cars for 75% of their career. Drivers like Hakkinen had great cars for maybe 30-40% of their career, drivers like Fisichella never had a great car. That affects the stats dramatically, which give no insight about the driver.


Bart -

"If statistics are meaningless, then there is no way to compare drivers. You have to do it with numbers. While RedFever "begs to disagree" that stats are the only scientific way, he doesn't suggest another scientific method and I don't think "because I say so" counts"

I never said that, don't change my words, please. I never suggested another scientific way exists. In fact, I believe that NO scientific way to compare drivers from different eras or years exists. If you feel the need for a scientific method, it is you who need to suggest one. Not only I don't feel the need and believe it is impossible, I also don't see care. I really don't need a pre-packaged system to tell me Driver A is better than Driver B because the weighted average of his fast lap times multiplied the differential on pole positions....that is bullshit. I simply respect great drivers, people that showed talent like Stewart, Clark, Lauda or Senna and don't feel compelled at all to rank them. In fact, it makes no sense. So, don't call me to satisfy needs I don't have, you are the one that needs numbers to help him make sense of his world.


Groom -

"Well... nice post RedFever but ... I disagree... "

I don't have a problem with that.

" Now I don't have the time to go through the whole thing but I just wanted to say that it is doable."

I do have a problem with that. First, the system you mention was never utilized to rank F1 drivers. Therefore, it is irrelevant to our discussion. If they wil ldevelop an accurate system in the future, maybe we'll talk about it. For now, nobody has proven a "doable" system that is accurate. Yourself confirmed this when you say "in these decisions is that some of the variables that you need to take into account are subjective". Subjective means imprecise, hence it doesn't work. Besides, why do we need a rank? do you? would you respect Schumacher more or less if you found out he is the 3rd best of all times? does it matter if instead he was the 4th best?


"But if I were a team manager and I have to hire a new driver, I will look at the trend statistics are showing me, as part of my decision making process."

Anfd that will tell you if he is maturing and improving, a good tool. However, trend stats won't help you compare Schumacher to Fangio.



"admited, my statistics is not very impressive
(wds: 0, wins: 0, points: 0, fastest laps: 0, poles: 0, laps lead: 0)
but if statistics is irrelevant, I herewith claim to be the best driver in
F1 history!"

No, you can't, because there is no fans of your or journalist that will agree with your statement. You don't even get subjective credit regarding your driving. Besides, apart from being a failed attempt at being a smart ass, your post shows you missundertood my post altogether

Rediscoverix -

"Stats don't matter, look at Gilles Villeneuve. He was a great driver with relatively poor stats. But look at some of the things he did. He was once 12 seconds faster than any other driver in a wet practice!"
- Here the Gilles fan conveniently uses the fact that Gilles was 12 seconds faster than any other driver (a statistic) without informing about the circumstances, I.e he was the only driver out there pushing. Basically the same reasoning as when a "stat junkie" uses facts without circumstance"

You mean the same way Schumi and Senna fans get defensive as soon as someone discredits stats? :rotfl:

Obviously you never understood at all what caused anyone to become a fan of Gilles Villeneuve!!!! nobody who claims to be a Gilles Villeneuve fan ever cared about stats (not even the 11 seconds you mention, as notable as it was) because you can't capture genius in numbers. It's that simple. To understand Gilles genius you had to watch him live, you had to see him slide on the ARMCO at every lap in Monaco or break at the limit (no carbon back there) to take the Tosa in Imola or watch him drive in the rain with a wing in his way, looking at the rails left by someone else to know where to turn. That you don't find in numbers. Just as you can't describe the Sixtin Chapel and Michelangelo in numbers, similarly you can't capture Gilles furor and skill in any stats. You really have no idea of who he was and I would never offend him by trying to describe him in those terms. Your example is entirely wrong. Sorry. That is exactly why I abor numbers to describe drivers. Numbers will tell you Damon Hill is the 10th best driver of all times and DC is the 20th best. I don't even think their fans would agree with that!!!

Masterhit - "The problem with stats is that they can, and are used to substantiate opinions. So they are no more scientific than opinions. Human beings and the world around us are so much more complex than mere stats, soundbytes. headlines, percentages, taglines. The world is not fully understood or predictable."

Great post. The world indeed is fun because as you say it is unpredictable. However, people live in fear, fear of lacking money or resources or health. So, they need to predict, to measure, to define things, they want no surprises, they need to feel confortable in the little cocoon they live in. Everything has to be measurable and needs to fit within certain parameters. Thankfully, art, genius and talent are not scientifically measurable. And probably that's why we appreciate them so much!!! They transmit passion, not cold calculations

siggers
"You note a trend towards more racewins per driver in the later years of f1 history. That itself is as much a verifyable statistical fact as your explanation would be. We could look at a ratio of points (or placings) of the top two or three teams over time and measure the trend towards more 'concentrated' championships. The effect of more races per season (and therefore more 'available' wins) and of longer life or career of the drivers can statistically be neutralized by looking at percentage of wins out of participations instead of absolute number of wins. And so on ...."

my question to you: why?


Holiday -

"BTW Redfever, you know how absurd it is to set up a poll about the value of stats? You use the same means you are trying to deny..... Pretty desperate stuff."

Desperate? I had no intention to rank the pros and cons, I simply was interested in opening up the forum to very SUBJECTIVE points of view. Whether 79% or 34% will say no, it really means nothing to me. After all, I studied statistics enough (you need to know what you are attacking, after all) to know this would be a statistically insignificant sample of respondents anyway. Desperate is someone who takes this so seriously. The point was to hear people's opionions on the subject. It seems the result was obtianed.

Desperate is when someone tries to standardize the objective, assuming everyone has the same objective, therefore denying facets and differences in humans. "since everybody on the grid wants to succeed and you have to judge the people by what they want". It is a very superificial statement, which shows your superficial approach to life and that is why you are so desperate as to need stats to make sense of your world.

Do all the drivers want the same thing? absolutely not!!!! in fact, a driver like Villeneuve or Rosberg would have never wanted a victory like Adelide 94 or attempt something like Suzuka 89, 90 or Jerez 97. Didn't they want the same things as Schumi, Prost and Senna??? apparently not. Why did Reuteman and Regazzoni disobey team orders to win races while Villeneuve and Peterson followed the orders and lost their chances to WDC? because obviously drivers want different things because they are different. In the flat and boring vision of your world, of course, there might be a relevant place for stats, but art and beauty and genius and talent are not measurable by these means. They are simply admired and one simply feels the emotions that are communicated to us. It is that simple. I would be desperate, however, if I could not appreciate the beauty of these and needed numbers to make sense of them.

#32 ensign14

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 21:11

You cannot use number of WC wins to compare Fangio, racing in 7-8 World Championship races per year, against Schumi, with double the number in safer cars.

#33 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 22:06

RedFever:

"You really have no idea of who he was and I would never offend him by trying to describe him in those terms."

I don't think you understood me correctly. I wasn't trying to discredit Gilles, I was just using him as an example.

I agree with you on principle that a driver with 8 wins isn't necessarily better than a driver with 6 wins, but you can't ignore stats completely either. The entire purpose of starting a race is to win it, not to have fun or put up a show or whatever. Therefore, the number of wins a driver accumulates equals the number of times a driver has reached his goal.

For me, it's pretty clear that Schumacher, Prost and Senna are the top three drivers of the modern era - and they are also the three drivers that have by far the best stats of all time (in absolute terms, not averages). I don't think that it's a coincidence that good drivers win more races than bad drivers and thus have better stats. In fact; the definition of being better than another driver surely has to be "the ability to take the car from the start to the finish faster than your opponent". Which means that the best drivers are those that win most races. Other drivers may be good at overtaking, great qualifiers or equipped with fantastic car control. But all those things are skills that help the drivers reach their goal, and if they seldom do it in spite of possessing these skills, then they have to be lacking in some other department. The car is obviously a great deal of the equation (perhaps greater than the driver in individual races). But it's no coincidence that certain drivers (Schumacher, Montoya) are in great cars, and others (De la Rosa, Bernoldi) are in lesser cars.

The drivers want to drive for the best team possible, and the teams want the best possible driver to driver for them. This means that (if we trust F1 team managers to be good talent spotters) the best drivers will be driving for the best teams. The exception is when drivers go to teams that are declining (like Alesi going to Ferrari in 1990), or when the driver for emotional reasons stay at a team despite the fact that the team's not performing at it's best (like the Villeneuves, Schumacher or Fittipaldi).

So stats don't tell the whole story, but they are 100% objective, and paint a decent picture of the history of the sport. The only problem with them is that they are easy to misinterpret.

#34 masterhit

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 01:15

Originally posted by Rediscoveryx
RedFever:

"You really have no idea of who he was and I would never offend him by trying to describe him in those terms."

I don't think you understood me correctly. I wasn't trying to discredit Gilles, I was just using him as an example.

I agree with you on principle that a driver with 8 wins isn't necessarily better than a driver with 6 wins, but you can't ignore stats completely either. The entire purpose of starting a race is to win it, not to have fun or put up a show or whatever. Therefore, the number of wins a driver accumulates equals the number of times a driver has reached his goal.

For me, it's pretty clear that Schumacher, Prost and Senna are the top three drivers of the modern era - and they are also the three drivers that have by far the best stats of all time (in absolute terms, not averages). I don't think that it's a coincidence that good drivers win more races than bad drivers and thus have better stats. In fact; the definition of being better than another driver surely has to be "the ability to take the car from the start to the finish faster than your opponent". Which means that the best drivers are those that win most races. Other drivers may be good at overtaking, great qualifiers or equipped with fantastic car control. But all those things are skills that help the drivers reach their goal, and if they seldom do it in spite of possessing these skills, then they have to be lacking in some other department. The car is obviously a great deal of the equation (perhaps greater than the driver in individual races). But it's no coincidence that certain drivers (Schumacher, Montoya) are in great cars, and others (De la Rosa, Bernoldi) are in lesser cars.

The drivers want to drive for the best team possible, and the teams want the best possible driver to driver for them. This means that (if we trust F1 team managers to be good talent spotters) the best drivers will be driving for the best teams. The exception is when drivers go to teams that are declining (like Alesi going to Ferrari in 1990), or when the driver for emotional reasons stay at a team despite the fact that the team's not performing at it's best (like the Villeneuves, Schumacher or Fittipaldi).

So stats don't tell the whole story, but they are 100% objective, and paint a decent picture of the history of the sport. The only problem with them is that they are easy to misinterpret.


Don't take this the wrong way RediscoveryX, but stating that stats are 100 objective... Okay, as I was saying I was a data administrator/data analysis team manager for a large company and I mean large, company.. Suffice to say that I understand statistics. I know their usefulness, but nature is still nature, the universe is still not fully understood and human being are still humans. There is no such thing as objective. It always involves making a judgement call in the end.

Human beings and the world around us do are fundamentally unpredictable. It is our very randomness that makes us so creative.

We are all hypocritical, error making, creatures of emotion and opinion. Stats are not ominscient and omnipotent. They are formed by human opinionated judgement calls.

No matter how much data you have, it is never enough to know everything. As the French say, the more you know, the more you know that you do NOT know.

If a lightning bolt fell and killed Michael Schumacher, he may never have raced. I mention this as but one example of the fundamental unpredictability of nature. I cannot emphasise enough that at this stage, no human or computer can give us all the answers. Beacuse the notion itself suggests that there are single answers and I am trying to illustrate that life is a "bit" more complicated than that.

It wasn't that long ago that people commonly accepted that the Earth was flat, that Earth was the centre point of the universe etc. We know so little. Yet corporations, by their very structure and model act as "fathers" or guardians.

When we reach a certain age we understand that our parents or guardians do not have all the answers and beacome frustrated and rebel when we realise how small we are in the scale of things. Uncertainty does that to us.

No weather forecaster will tell you that any computer modelling program costing billions of dollars is infallible. In other words it isn't a "solution". Because there are none - just opinions, whatifs, uncertainty and debates. I myself am such a creature, and am a hypocrite, opinionated and make mistakes all the time. I respect your right to believe in the all enveloping might of statistics if you must. But life is "what ifs". There are more questions than answers. That doesnt stop man from trying to evolve to the point where we find the answers, I am just stating that some things are beyond our skills of measurement, quantification and understanding. To quote the lyrics of "Born Free" by Don Black (sung by Matt Munro etc)



"The World still astounds you
Each time you look at a star"


Even this conversation can be used as an example - I am talking to you as if you are a stat junkie. Because i don't know you well enough. Because I am looking at a few words. But you are way more than that. This is what I mean, we are more than a summary.

#35 Bart

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 03:37

Sorry, a bit of a reiteration of what I said earlier as I seem to have upset RedFever.

Originally posted by RedFever:
I never said that, don't change my words, please. I never suggested another scientific way exists. In fact, I believe that NO scientific way to compare drivers from different eras or years exists... So, don't call me to satisfy needs I don't have, you are the one that needs numbers to help him make sense of his world.


Note that I did put a smiley at the end of my first paragraph ;)

Actually, I broadly agree with you, RedFever, in my post. It will never be possible to compare Fangio with Senna, for example, because there were too many differences in all the other variables. I think it's a shame that we can't see them race together, but that's because I think it would have been a great spectacle, rather than because I want to know who's better.

I really don't need a pre-packaged system to tell me Driver A is better than Driver B because the weighted average of his fast lap times multiplied the differential on pole positions....that is bullshit.

Indeed, like the quarterback rating in the NFL (see my post). Broadly speaking, these things can tell you if somebody is good or bad, but only when it's incredibly obvious already. But surely you accept that some people want to have these comparisons and be able to say that A is better than B. A large part of the problem is that people who want to do this usually have an agenda to push and so weight the facts in a way that supports their beliefts.

One final point, which is that people who do statistical analyses professionally (and, as a scientist, I have to mess about with stats quite a lot) use error bars and confidence intervals and things. Let's suppose, for example, that somebody has claimed that KR is a better qualifier than DC (I know I've already said that qualifying is not a good indicator, but it's simple, so bear with me) by noting that KR outqualified DC 10-7 in 2002. My null hypothesis is that both drivers are equally good and so on any given Saturday it's 50-50 who comes out ahead. Usually, one says that for something to be "proven", it has to have a small probability of arising by chance (usually 5% or 10%). You can do the maths (it's simply a binomial probability distribution) and you discover that for KR to outqualify DC 10 or more times out of 17 races will happen 31% of the time, even if they're both equal. So we conclude that there is no evidence to support the hypothesis that KR is a better qualifier than DC. (As a footnote, 13-4 is the required score for one to conclude that Driver A is better than Driver B at 95% confidence; i.e., that there is a <5% probability of it arising by chance if both drivers were equal.)

Obviously, nobody here does these sorts of things, but perhaps the thing to take away is that 16 or 17 races is a very small number from which to draw any statisically significant conclusions and so even when two drivers are in the same team for an entire season, it's hard to say who is better with statistics unless it's blindingly obvious already (e.g., in Minardi).

#36 kenny

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 12:21

1 Sentence to prove how stats are totally misleading..
Damon hill's stats are better than those of Gilles Villeneuve...

(not to take anything away from Damon... on the contrary...)

#37 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 13:15

masterhit:

I think there's a big difference between the stats used in the business world and the stats used in Formula One.

A business uses historical stats to predict the future, if F1 stats were used in the same way, we would conclude that Schumacher would win the 2003 WDC, Räikkönen wouldn't win a single GP etc. So if it turns out that Montoya wins the WDC, and Räikkönen wins a race or two, we'd all be shaking our heads going "Hey, stats are useless..." if we were to use stats in the same way as businesses do. Stats tell us the story so far, they tell us absolutely nothing about the future.

And ofcourse historical stats are objective. No one can argue against the fact that Prost scored 33 pole positions. It's an objective fact. The stats themselves are not subjective, it's the interpretation of the stats that are subjective, such as claiming that Prost with his 33 pole positions was a better qualifier than Nigel Mansell who has 32 poles.

We can't say that Schumacher is the best ever because he has the best stats - I agree 100% on that. But the only way in which stats could be totally meaningless is if winning was meaningless. As long as all drivers out there do their best to win, the stats of number of wins is a pretty good way of determining who's good and who's not (unless you think it's a coincidence that Michael Schumacher has got more wins than Olivier Panis).

Stats are not the absolute truth, but they give you a rough idea of driver skill, and they are indirectly the objective of each and every driver (as their "real" objective is to win all races and all championships). Stats tell you how good they have been at reaching their goal.

#38 joachimvanwing

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 13:22

Statistics are a perfect reflection of a reality.
On the onther hand, you can read stats the way you want. You can prove everything with statistics. What would politicians be without?

To me stats show who is the best, most intelligent, complete driver.
Fangio, Clark, Stewart, Lauda, Prost, Schumacher.
F1 Stats don't show who's the fastest, except for Senna's 65 poles.

#39 raceday

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 15:16

Good post Rediscoveryx! :up:

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#40 masterhit

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 16:00

Originally posted by Bart
Sorry, a bit of a reiteration of what I said earlier as I seem to have upset RedFever.


One final point, which is that people who do statistical analyses professionally (and, as a scientist, I have to mess about with stats quite a lot) use error bars and confidence intervals and things. Let's suppose, for example, that somebody has claimed that KR is a better qualifier than DC (I know I've already said that qualifying is not a good indicator, but it's simple, so bear with me)


The worst thing about all this nonsense is that you are quoting results without any scientific data. There is no friction coefficient for the tarmac, no wear percentage for the equipment, no steering input percentage. It is not scientific. Science means getting as much data as possible. But no teams will provide that data . This is what irritates me the most - those who produce stats on a commercial basis do so with very, very poor, selective data. Human beings are deceptive. This include the participants and those who produce the data. It is fact of life. Nothing can account for that because it is again produced by - you guessed it - human beings. There is nothing to correct for equipment failure beacuse the sample size is not big enough. There are not even enogh events per year to make statistical analysis valid. Theres not even enough data for data clarks to manually correct the variances.

Like I said, I was responsible for a large company's statistical analysis spreadsheets, databases. We are talking over a billion litres of fuel. Behind any number of servers are human beings checking and correcting the data. Because humans are infinitely more sophisticated and adaptive than any current computer software or hardware.

Lack of knowledge produces fear. When human beings are afraid they seek answers. However the answers given in these instances are to reassure rather than truly valid. Unless you can assure me that stats include all data of all teams including software revisions etc and that a analysis team speaks to the teams when they encounter unusual variances. See, even your preassumed notion is wrong.

Statistics, for all their usage, are only as good as the error making judgemental, deceptive, opinion orientated, moody and inconsistent people known as humans.

Nature plays with us. We are nowhere near understanding nature.

Every form of understnding involves taking one form and converting into another. This involves a fundamental loss and distortion. Few humans seem capable of understanding this basic scientific principal.



#41 Dudley

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Posted 14 December 2002 - 16:25

If stats had any meaning whatsoever, we would be faced with an interesting aspect: all the best drivers in F1's history raced in the last 20 years........The first driver to have raced over 20 years ago was Stewart, only 5th in the all-time winners list. I guess better nutrition is causing modern drivers to be better than their predecessors.......


I believe this to be true.

The 100m record lowers every year, why shouldn't drivers keep getting better too?

but yeah, just quoting those stats is unfair.

#42 RedFever

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Posted 16 December 2002 - 23:08

"I believe this to be true."

The analogy with runners is unappropriate, I think. Drivers actually have it a lot easier today. Not just because TC won't make them spin as often or LC will take care of their starts, semi-automatic gears require no shifting taking hands away from wheel, etc, etc. The main reasons drivers have it easy today is because the sport is so much safer, so they can take much bigger chances. Do you think Schumi would have punted Hill or JV had he been driving Fangio's car? no, because he could have killed himself and his oppnents in the process. Np circuit today has turns were if you miss the turn you know you are pretty much screwed. In Fangios time, it was like that pretty much everywhere. It required a lot more courage to drive with no safety net at all. So, I don't buy it at all that drivers today are better than Moss & Co, since thsoe guys were driving harder machines to drive in much harder conditions.

#43 masterhit

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 09:29

Definitely. Another benefit of techology (especially with the automatic gearboxes and advancements in differentials) is that cars tend to be much more reliable than even ten years ago.

#44 Ghostrider

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 10:59

Originally posted by Rediscoveryx
I always have a good laugh however when I see some of the hypocrisy of some fans such as (these are just some examples, there are plenty of others) :

"Stats don't matter, look at Fisichella. He's a great driver with poor stats, he's not won a single race in his career. But you just have to see his record against his teammates to know that he's a great driver".
- In this case, the Fisichella fan makes a claim that Fisi shouldn't be rated according to his statistics, then makes a neat turn and uses stats to claim that Fisi is great.


You have to take into consideration the validity of a statistic measure. If we take qualiying performance as a measure for measuring teammate's speed it is a pretty good measure, they have the same material and team orders are seldomn used in qualifying. SO the validity of what we are trying to measure is pretty high.

But if we try to measure which drivers are good based on their numbers of wins the validity is much lower, since machinery at the driver's disposal plays such a huge part. Here the statistics are not valid for what we are trying to measure.

So I don't see the hypocracy you see Rediscoveryx.

#45 MJP

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 12:43

Originally posted by masterhit


The worst thing about all this nonsense is that you are quoting results without any scientific data. There is no friction coefficient for the tarmac, no wear percentage for the equipment, no steering input percentage. It is not scientific. Science means getting as much data as possible. But no teams will provide that data . This is what irritates me the most - those who produce stats on a commercial basis do so with very, very poor, selective data. Human beings are deceptive. This include the participants and those who produce the data. It is fact of life. Nothing can account for that because it is again produced by - you guessed it - human beings. There is nothing to correct for equipment failure beacuse the sample size is not big enough. There are not even enogh events per year to make statistical analysis valid. Theres not even enough data for data clarks to manually correct the variances.

Like I said, I was responsible for a large company's statistical analysis spreadsheets, databases. We are talking over a billion litres of fuel. Behind any number of servers are human beings checking and correcting the data. Because humans are infinitely more sophisticated and adaptive than any current computer software or hardware.

Lack of knowledge produces fear. When human beings are afraid they seek answers. However the answers given in these instances are to reassure rather than truly valid. Unless you can assure me that stats include all data of all teams including software revisions etc and that a analysis team speaks to the teams when they encounter unusual variances. See, even your preassumed notion is wrong.

Statistics, for all their usage, are only as good as the error making judgemental, deceptive, opinion orientated, moody and inconsistent people known as humans.

Nature plays with us. We are nowhere near understanding nature.

Every form of understnding involves taking one form and converting into another. This involves a fundamental loss and distortion. Few humans seem capable of understanding this basic scientific principal.


Little pessimistic, but otherwise fundamentally sound perception.

#46 wati

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 13:18

Originally posted by RedFever




Stats don't show that nowadays the car is even more relevant than ever. In the 50s and 60s, the car was important, but talent could still compensate for a mdium car. In the 70s, occassionally you had drivers like Villeneuve or Peterson score the occasional victory with inferior material, but it started being a rare event.


You still have those rare events... Herbert in 99, Panis in 96, Hill in 98, MS won 5 times in 97 in much much inferior car, RS and DC won in 2002...

Wattie

#47 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 17 December 2002 - 15:20

Originally posted by Ghostrider


You have to take into consideration the validity of a statistic measure. If we take qualiying performance as a measure for measuring teammate's speed it is a pretty good measure, they have the same material and team orders are seldomn used in qualifying. SO the validity of what we are trying to measure is pretty high.

But if we try to measure which drivers are good based on their numbers of wins the validity is much lower, since machinery at the driver's disposal plays such a huge part. Here the statistics are not valid for what we are trying to measure.

So I don't see the hypocracy you see Rediscoveryx.


I understand your point and agree with it. The hypocrisy lies in the claim that stats are irrelevant. If the Fisichella fan had said something like "stats between teammates are more important than total number of wins", then there would have been no hypocrisy.

Stats are not only "total number of wins", or "total number of pole positions", stats can be basically anything. Some stats are better than others, but none are (IMO) irrelevant as long as you understand what they are saying. Qualifying might be a way of measuring drivers relative speed, but it's not as easy as saying "My guy beat your guy 10-7 in qualifying, hence my guy is a lot faster than your guy." Qualifying stats show how good a driver is at driving one lap at high speed, not necessarily how "fast" the driver is. It's pretty interesting that there is no clear definition as to what "fast" really means.

#48 RedFever

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 18:54

"Herbert in 99, Panis in 96, Hill in 98, MS won 5 times in 97 in much much inferior car, RS and DC won in 2002."

You didn't understand my point. I wasn't referring to Herbert or Panis' wins, where 70% of the field retired or to DC and Ralf's victories in 2002, where Ralf had the best car in Malaysia, as the Ferrari drivers had last year's model, and DC had the 2nd best car that day in Monaco, but having scored pole and racing in Monaco, without making a single mistake, he managed to keep a faster Schumacher behind.

No, none of that. I was referring to Gilles Villeneuve winning in Jarama with the worst chassis I have ever seen a top team produce and yet prevail over Reutemann, Laffitte, DeAngelis and Watson, all with faster cars at their disposal. Combining an awesome start and his typical at the limit racing style, Gilles actually kept those 4 guys within 2 seconds from him for 70 laps and won without themretiring one after the other. Nowadays we don't see these things happening.

#49 Rediscoveryx

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 09:48

Originally posted by RedFever
No, none of that. I was referring to Gilles Villeneuve winning in Jarama with the worst chassis I have ever seen a top team produce and yet prevail over Reutemann, Laffitte, DeAngelis and Watson, all with faster cars at their disposal. Combining an awesome start and his typical at the limit racing style, Gilles actually kept those 4 guys within 2 seconds from him for 70 laps and won without themretiring one after the other. Nowadays we don't see these things happening. [/B]


How about Boutsen at Hungaroring in 1990? ;)

Or Bernoldi against DC in Monaco 2001? ;)

#50 Nikolas Garth

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Posted 19 December 2002 - 09:58

Originally posted by RedFever
"I believe this to be true."

The analogy with runners is unappropriate, I think. Drivers actually have it a lot easier today. Not just because TC won't make them spin as often or LC will take care of their starts, semi-automatic gears require no shifting taking hands away from wheel, etc, etc. The main reasons drivers have it easy today is because the sport is so much safer, so they can take much bigger chances. Do you think Schumi would have punted Hill or JV had he been driving Fangio's car? no, because he could have killed himself and his oppnents in the process. Np circuit today has turns were if you miss the turn you know you are pretty much screwed. In Fangios time, it was like that pretty much everywhere. It required a lot more courage to drive with no safety net at all. So, I don't buy it at all that drivers today are better than Moss & Co, since thsoe guys were driving harder machines to drive in much harder conditions.

The natural extension/conclusion of that statement is that as cars will never be that treacherous again, it doesn't matter who comes along in the next 1000 years, they can not be as good as Moss & Co. :drunk: