35 replies to this topic

[Pong]

Dear members of this forum,

Here is my humble prediction of the effect the new "no refuelling between qualification and race" will have on the race.

Start of the race:
As each car has the speed of its qualification lap, there is little possibility for lapping other cars. The start of the race will loose significance as a passing opportunity for the same reason. The race will be very boring and processional up until the time of the first pit-stops. Some threads have discussed the possibility of a kamikaze-strategy with one driver holding up the whole field for a number of laps to allow the teammate with a maximum fuel load to keep up. This strategy will however benefit not only his teammate, but every car in the field with a heavier fuel load will benefit as well. This would indicate that the kamikaze-strategy is not very likely to occur. A much more expected strategy is the PR-strategy of weaker teams. It is quite likely not possible for some of the weaker teams to resist the attention at the front of the grid. So expect a mixed up grid.

After a handfull of laps:
The cars with a light fuel load start to pit. The cars with a heavier load continue. The race for the top positions intensifies, but is complicated not only by backmarkers with a heavy fuel loads but also from the cars that have just pitted. The field will be divided into mainly two groups: first the two-stoppers and secondly the one-stoppers.

After the first round of pit-stops:
The situation will after the first round of pit-stops be as for a normal race. The only difference will be the increased number of lappings as fast cars overtake the weaker cars with the PR strategy mentioned above. This will increase the importance of driver ability.

Final round of pit-stops:
The excitement around this event is closely connected to the choice the teams made with regard to the number of stops. If equally matched teams choose the same strategy this final round of pit stops could be very exciting.

Notes: considering the arguments - race strategy will actually be less important than before as the cars will be less likely to hold each other up at the start of the race. More emphasis on drivers ability to lap other cars effectively and above all the ability to drive the car fast irrespectively of fuel load.



regards,
Pong

[reedemer]

I'm still not convinced with this new rule,
I just hope it provides some good racing!

[Sir Frank]

The rule says there are no setup changes allowed, does that include wing settings too?
I mean they can change the wing settings when pitting, and there can be good advantges found here, sometimes they run a lot less wing in the race than in qualifying.

There should be a clarification of the new rules surely.

[Sir Frank]

Heres some clarifications from Autosport:

Formula 1 teams have been told that they can only carry out limited work on their cars between final qualifying and the race and only under the supervision of the scrutineers, according to AUTOSPORT this week.

The FIA, the sport's governing body, has now clarified exactly what
can be done to the cars, which will be returned to the team garages after qualifying but must remain under parc ferme conditions until they are returned to the central parc ferme at 6pm and locked up until Sunday morning.

Teams will be allowed to carry out minor work on the cars from 8am Sunday, again under the eyes of scrutineers, but essentially the cars will start the race in a similar configuration to that in which they ended qualifying. This means that it is likely the traditional Sunday morning warm-up will be abolished.

What the teams can do and when:

After qualifying:
Tyre pressure checks
Removal of bodywork and the fitting of cooling devices
Connection of jump battery
Download of data by physical connection to car
Fitting of water heaters
Fitting of slave tyres
Carrying out work required by the FIA

Before the race:
Repair crash damage
Certain liquids and compressed gases may be drained and replenished – not fuel
Race tyres can be removed but not changed
Main battery may be changed
Cleaning of bodywork
Tyres and brake ducts changed for a fluctuation in weather conditions


So no wing changes either

[gerry nassar]

Originally posted by Sir Frank
The rule says there are no setup changes allowed, does that include wing settings too?
I mean they can change the wing settings when pitting, and there can be good advantges found here, sometimes they run a lot less wing in the race than in qualifying.

There should be a clarification of the new rules surely.

This rule is so weird - it just popped up out of nowhere and we havnt heard much else about it since. My hunch is that it wont go ahead or atleast hopefully it gets delayed.

[Sir Frank]

Originally posted by gerry nassar


This rule is so weird - it just popped up out of nowhere and we havnt heard much else about it since. My hunch is that it wont go ahead or atleast hopefully it gets delayed.

I hope so.

Theres one more thing about this rule, I didnt read the first post and I posted the same but I totally agree with you Pong!

[FrankB]

In the past, with planned stops not occurring earlier than 20 or so laps into the race, an additional formation lap due to an aborted start wouldn't have substantial effect on race strategies. But now a team could opt for a minimum fuel load for qualifying, and plan to stop very early in the race for fuel (not likely perhaps, but it must be taken into consideration as a possible strategy).

So they start race day with just enough fuel for installation / formation laps and one racing lap. What happens then if the start is aborted? - they may have enough fuel for a second formation lap, but not enough to get to the pits to re-fuel at the end of the first racing lap. Does this mean that all cars will be starting with a minimum of 3 or 4 laps worth of fuel in case there are multiple aborts?

[Peter]

I think one of two strategies will emerge:

1) as any car that pits early would come out at the back of the pack anyway, I would expect faster cars to dive in after the formation lap, spend the 20 or 30 seconds that it takes to form the grid and start the race setting up (adjusting the wings) and refuelling the car, and then pick their way through the other cars as they pit for fuel.

2) forget qualifying and set the car up for the race on Saturday (if necessary, use Friday to set a quick time to get a good position on Saturday and avoid the 107% rule). Then not have to worry about a quick pit stop and just drive away from the pack as the others pit.

Whichever strategy, there will be more pressure on flag marshals to blue-flag lapped cars quickly and report obstructions. It is going to be more difficult for them to determine who is on the same lap with more early pit stops.

Watch out for Minardi on a light fuel strategy with the hope of leading the grand prix for a lap or two.

[Gemini]

Originally posted by Pong


Start of the race:
As each car has the speed of its qualification lap, there is little possibility for lapping other cars. The start of the race will loose significance as a passing opportunity for the same reason. The race will be very boring and processional up until the time of the first pit-stops.

In other words you say: Ferrari will have a problem in passing Minardi because "each car has the speed of its qualification lap"

Or you say that Ferrari was pulling away from Williams and McLaren in 2002 because starting on much lower fuel load?

I somehow believe that there will be a lot more variety in fuel loads at start of the race that it was in 2002. A lot more... I hope the new rule will make racing more exciting at the expense of Sutarday qual myth. As far as I remember this BB, it was seeing the boring races what we always bitched about, not boring qualifying sessions. We will always have qual speed comparison held on Friday qual sessions when all driver will go with low fuel load (unless specific wheather forecast for Sat).

P.S. Good news for MS bashers ;) MS might never be able to beat Senna poles record with regs... or if he does it you can say his recent poles don't mean anything..;)

[DEVO]

I still don't know how the 107% rule will work with the new fuel regs. The 107% rule still made sense with the 1 lap qual rule. If you crashed during quals you started at the back. So those that didn't make the 107% because of that were still in it....

now with the new fuel regs... take this scenario... I'm the first one out... I have half of a tank of gas.... i'm on the pole .... next 10 cars have similar fuel levels... then one driver goes out with enough fuel to qual and start the race... and he blows me out of the 107% range.... I can do nothing about it (1 lap qual rule).... so am I out?

[fullcourseyellow]

Originally posted by gerry nassar


This rule is so weird - it just popped up out of nowhere and we havnt heard much else about it since. My hunch is that it wont go ahead or atleast hopefully it gets delayed.

Yes, Gerry, because at this moment I don't know what to do with the Guess the Grid competition! It has become a lottery!

[Ricardo F1]

What happens, out of interest, if it pisses down with rain on Sunday morning? Does everyone have to start with dry set ups and dry tyres?

[wawawa]

Originally posted by Pong
Start of the race:
As each car has the speed of its qualification lap, there is little possibility for lapping other cars. The start of the race will loose significance as a passing opportunity for the same reason. The race will be very boring and processional up until the time of the first pit-stops.

I don't think this is likely to happen. I discussed this here - particularly point #2:

Cars would be set up for some kind of Saturday/Sunday compromise in terms of predicted weather and track conditions. Some cars will therefore be better than others, and these better cars need not be at the front of the grid only.

[wawawa]

Originally posted by Ricardo F1
What happens, out of interest, if it pisses down with rain on Sunday morning? Does everyone have to start with dry set ups and dry tyres?

I suppose Max will relax his "allowed list of adjustments" list in this situation. It won't happen that often, so an exception can always be made when it does.

[BrundleBud]

Originally posted by Gemini


In other words you say: Ferrari will have a problem in passing Minardi because "each car has the speed of its qualification lap"

If a Minardi is on the grid ahead of a Ferrari as a result of it's qualifying form, then yes, it IS going to be difficult for the Ferrari to overtake. No changes will have been allowed to either car since the end of qualifying, so why would the Ferrari suddenly be quicker in the race - both cars will have similar pace (at least at the start) to what they did in qualifying.

Originally posted by Gemini

Or you say that Ferrari was pulling away from Williams and McLaren in 2002 because starting on much lower fuel load?

The speed differential at the START of races MIGHT have been affected by fuel-load in 2002. The point is that in the early stages of the race, those cars that have qualified at the front are likely to continue to run at the front until the "better race performance" of certain constructors becomes a greater factor (i.e. the further into the race they go).

[BrundleBud]

Originally posted by wawawa

Cars would be set up for some kind of Saturday/Sunday compromise in terms of predicted weather and track conditions. Some cars will therefore be better than others, and these better cars need not be at the front of the grid only.

Assuming that the conditions on Sunday are sufficiently different from those in qualifying.

[BrundleBud]

Originally posted by Ricardo F1
What happens, out of interest, if it pisses down with rain on Sunday morning? Does everyone have to start with dry set ups and dry tyres?

If I remember correctly, in that scenario (and provided that there has been no previous "wet" running during the weekens) then there is the provision to have an additional period of warm-up/free-practice.

[wawawa]

Originally posted by BrundleBud
Assuming that the conditions on Sunday are sufficiently different from those in qualifying.

Well, there are always differences - and even a little bit can sometimes be sufficient. We see engineers checking track temperatures all the time, since a small change can have far-reaching consequences such as a change of strategy. At aero-dominated tracks, wind conditions are critical. Remember when Michael fell off the track at the first test this year? The blame was on the wind conditions. Also, most tracks would have had support races run on them - this means rubber, dirt and oil would lie on various parts of the track. Given that F1 cars are so sensitive to conditions, I think the fact that the setup is a compromise will play a significant role.

[BrundleBud]

Originally posted by wawawa

Given that F1 cars are so sensitive to conditions, I think the fact that the setup is a compromise will play a significant role.

I'm not convinced.

I think that the fuel strategy might be a compromised, but I think that the regulation was intended to ensure that cars qualify in race-trim, rather than vice-versa, and that the bigger teams will base their qualifying setup on the predicted Sunday weather/conditions, rather than compromising between Saturday and Sunday. (Unless of course there is really significant difference in the conditions, like rain!)

Not quite so sure about the likes of Minardi, but I don't suspect it will make a serious difference to the race results. Assuming a standard two-stop strategy, teams will still have the flexibility to play with fuel loads at their pitstops. That area of the race might take on even more importance, rather than what strategy teams use for qualifying.

[wawawa]

Originally posted by BrundleBud
I think that the fuel strategy might be a compromised, but I think that the regulation was intended to ensure that cars qualify in race-trim, rather than vice-versa, and that the bigger teams will base their qualifying setup on the predicted Sunday weather/conditions, rather than compromising between Saturday and Sunday. (Unless of course there is really significant difference in the conditions, like rain!)

Closely matched teams cannot afford to lose track position to their direct rivals, particularly since overtaking is difficult. Therefore, their qualifying setup must not be too race-oriented, otherwise they could be back on the grid and get stuck while direct rivals, on a similar fuel strategy but with better track position, build up a lead. So everyone will be forced to do a bit of gambling, and I'm pretty sure there will be several different answers. Of course, this is all in my opinion - my gut feeling versus yours - but that's what BBs are for

[dolomite]

Originally posted by BrundleBud



If I remember correctly, in that scenario (and provided that there has been no previous "wet" running during the weekens) then there is the provision to have an additional period of warm-up/free-practice.

And what happens about the fuel then? They would have to be allowed to put extra fuel in to cover the amount used in this free practice.

[gerry nassar]

Originally posted by fullcourseyellow

Yes, Gerry, because at this moment I don't know what to do with the Guess the Grid competition! It has become a lottery!

Unfortunatley it has!

Ive kept my guesses to what they were before the new fuel rule was intriduced.

[wawawa]

Originally posted by gerry nassar
Unfortunatley it has!

I suppose you could change it to "Guess the Pre-Grid" but that just doesn't have the same ring ;)

[batsnumbereleven]

Originally posted by wawawa

Closely matched teams cannot afford to lose track position to their direct rivals, particularly since overtaking is difficult. Therefore, their qualifying setup must not be too race-oriented, otherwise they could be back on the grid and get stuck while direct rivals, on a similar fuel strategy but with better track position, build up a lead.

If you think about it though, the same can be said in reverse. The qualifying set-up needs to provide the drivers with a good race car, otherwise when they get to the race they could be all over the place after the first few laps!!! It's no good being on the front of the grid if your set-up doesn't give you a good race car, because you will have to spend the entire race defending your position!!

[The Vulcan]

Preserving the engine of the car during the course of the race would also be of prime importance. This is where the driver can play an integral part in race strategy to complement the fuel strategy that is being adopted. I won't be surprised that with all these changes, the attrition rate during races increases, so the car that is realiable or the driver who paces his races, would end up collecting the much sought after points.

[ruther]

This new fuel rule will ruin races and qualifying, I hate it. I hope it changes...

[black magic]

as pointed out it may change the order of the grid but will do nothing for the race as those with low fuel by definition of qualifying speed will pull away pretty much in order until their first stop.

so how will this change the "spectacle" which now seems to be held by some as suddenly the be and end all of f1?

other than different logos nought will change.

solution i s to get rid of mosely

[Ricardo F1]

Out of interest is anyone curious about how this plays into the "no team orders" hands? I mean there's absolutely no reason for a team to put one driver on a lighter load, one on a heavier in qualifying simply to hedge their bets. Is this seen as team orders? More to the point with qualifying already somewhat castrated is this going to see the removal of great inter-team rivarlry?

JPM, you're 6/10ths down on Ralf today . . . "yes, but I az more fuel".

[ruther]

All was going fine...until this new rule. I really hate it. It must change

[siggers]

Originally posted by Pong

Start of the race:
As each car has the speed of its qualification lap, there is little possibility for lapping other cars.

...

Very true in theory. But this is going to be the result of one-lap qualifying. With a 'best of four laps' result up to now you could assume that a reasonable qualifier in most of the races would put the car more or less where it belonged on the grid. There was a quite good chance that changing weatherconditions, timing of a run, driver performance, good or bad luck, and so on would even out and get a car where it 'belonged' according to its potential. As indeed it empirically did over the last season at least for the front runners - those boring even coloured rows demonstrated it.

The new qualifying format is designed to avoid exactly this. According to MMs comments it is meant to mix it up. And mixed up it will be, not only according to petrol load and the combination of drivers skill and quality of car and team, but according to the much chancier one lap format. So we will see a mixture of cars that are high on the grid because they are very light and/or they are a top driver/car combo with a bit more fuel and a driver who got it perfectly right in qualifying (but we will not know that) and we will see a lot of cars that are lower on the grid because the are slower or they are heavier or the driver did not pull it together perfectly in his one lap. And except with clearly visible mistakes we will not know that either. And it will not necessarily become clear with pitstops either because there are just too much different things overlaying each other. Also all of this will be going on with severly reduced on track time and no chance of changing the setup between qualifying and the race, so that is going to be much more of a gamble too.

[Darrenj]

bernie and max are both chronic alcholics :

[metz]

Originally posted by DEVO
I still don't know how the 107% rule will work with the new fuel regs. The 107% rule still made sense with the 1 lap qual rule. If you crashed during quals you started at the back. So those that didn't make the 107% because of that were still in it....

now with the new fuel regs... take this scenario... I'm the first one out... I have half of a tank of gas.... i'm on the pole .... next 10 cars have similar fuel levels... then one driver goes out with enough fuel to qual and start the race... and he blows me out of the 107% range.... I can do nothing about it (1 lap qual rule).... so am I out?

Yes DEVO,
Consider the possibility of the F2003 qualifying with 2 lap fuel while others are on full or half fuel.
Could be half the grid will be out of the 107% rule.
Particularly if some mid fielders have a bad single qual run.
With an eight car start, everyone gets points.
I'll bet my first born (if anyone wants him) that the 107% rule will be changed or waved at every race. :

[wawawa]

Originally posted by batsnumbereleven
If you think about it though, the same can be said in reverse. The qualifying set-up needs to provide the drivers with a good race car, otherwise when they get to the race they could be all over the place after the first few laps!!! It's no good being on the front of the grid if your set-up doesn't give you a good race car, because you will have to spend the entire race defending your position!!

Given that its hard to overtake on most tracks, I think most drivers will settle for being ahead on the track as opposed to being in the best set-up car. For example, look at Imola '00 (MH stuck behind MS after the last round of pitstops), Brazil '02 (RS stuck behind MS), Canada '02 (RS stuck behind KR), France '02 (MS stuck behind KR), etc.

At one extreme, anyone who gambles by trying to improve grid position at the expense of race performance could be at an advantage against someone who goes for race performance only.

At the other extreme, anyone who goes too far for qualifying setup might end up compromising his race.

Given that there are 22 cars playing out many different kinds of strategies, this is going to be one hard banana-munching season for the strategists

[Franco]

I hate this rule. Guess the grid gone, Qualifying differentials out the window. Pole positions meaningless.

We won't be able to compare teammates raw speed anymore, everything will be speculation on fuel levels. Trying to compare the raw speed of one car against another will also be more complicated, having to consider race strategies and fuel levels.

Also, we'll never see a driver going balls out in qualifying, ala Jacques or Monty on their last qualifying runs. They will now be too cautious since they will only get one chance at it.

Oh dear, what has happened to F1................

[Nasty McBastard]

Originally posted by Franco

We won't be able to compare teammates raw speed anymore, everything will be speculation on fuel levels

..........

Also, we'll never see a driver going balls out in qualifying, ala Jacques or Monty on their last qualifying runs.

friday would give you what you want in both cases pretty much

[917k]

Originally posted by Nasty McBastard


friday would give you what you want in both cases pretty much

Yep,I said this in another thread.Someone else said that Friday's session should be moved to Sat,and Sat. moved to Sun. morning.This makes a lot of sense.
Considering how short the races have become,this 2nd session could be part of the TV show,Sunday before the race[an hour or so?]