22 replies to this topic

[angst]

....at the Nurburgring?

I got to thinking about this while watching th GP at Silverstone and thinking about Ferrari and Schumacher's domination.

If Lauda hadn't had his crash the 75,'76 and '77 would have been Lauda's first 3 WDC. Would he have pushed development of the 312T3? Would it have been closer to the 312T4? Could he have, just possibly, made it four in a row in '78? Then to five in '79.

Would Reutemann have still joined Ferrar in '77? Would Scheckter have joined in '79? Would Villeneuve's 2nd and 3rd Grands Prix have been at the wheel of the Lotus 79?

How long would F1 have stayed at the Nurburgring?

[AndreasF1]

Laude would definetely clinched a title in 76. The 77 title is a given. And he would have stayed with Ferrari in 78, but would not have had a chance to beat the almighty Lotuses. He would probably have stayed on with Ferrari in 79 to clinch a record 4th title with the Scuderia before retireing to his airline business.

[Bernd]

What if Rosemeyer said "Scheiße ist es zu windig" (**** it's too windy)
What if Ascari had said "Piss oof dis Ferrari is ****"
What if Clark had said "Piss off Colin, I'm going to Brands"

So on and so forth.

[David Hyland]

Originally posted by AndreasF1
Laude would definetely clinched a title in 76. The 77 title is a given. And he would have stayed with Ferrari in 78, but would not have had a chance to beat the almighty Lotuses. He would probably have stayed on with Ferrari in 79 to clinch a record 4th title with the Scuderia before retireing to his airline business.

I seem to recall that Lauda left Ferrari before the end of the 1977 season due to "artistic differences" with the team management. I don't see any reason why that wouldn't have still happened even if he'd won the title in '76. (Or did his crash affect his outlook/attitude?)

A related question is how differently would we remember James Hunt if he hadn't won the title in '76?

[David Hyland]

Originally posted by Bernd
What if Rosemeyer said "Scheiße ist es zu windig" (**** it's too windy)
What if Ascari had said "Piss oof dis Ferrari is ****"
What if Clark had said "Piss off Colin, I'm going to Brands"

So on and so forth.

What if Schumacher(M) has said "I don't think I would look good in red overalls"

[Apologies to my wife, who considers it poor form for one person to make successive posts in the same thread]

[angst]

Originally posted by David Hyland
I seem to recall that Lauda left Ferrari before the end of the 1977 season due to "artistic differences" with the team management. I don't see any reason why that wouldn't have still happened even if he'd won the title in '76. (Or did his crash affect his outlook/attitude?)

A related question is how differently would we remember James Hunt if he hadn't won the title in '76?

I believe the attitude taken toward Lauda by the team after his withdrawal from the Japanese Grand Prix cooled the relationship somewhat. I don't think the pre-crash Lauda would have made that decision, which isn't to say I think Lauda became a 'coward'(which is what I believe was the undertone of Ferrari's attitude toward him), far from. Any man who can come back from what was so nearly a fatal crash so soon, witht the wounds that were still healing can not in anyway be called a coward in my eyes. I do believe, however, that being so close to death made him question what risks were worth taking and which were not.

I know it is another 'what if', but I was thinking about how much difference his arrival at Ferrari had made.

[Frank de Jong]

Lauda could still have retired in the Japanse GP since his lead in the WDC would probably have been big enough to claim the title anyway. So hardly any impact on the relation with Ferrari there.
Another possibility would have been that Mass would have won his home GP, one of the few with a correct prediction of the tire choice IIRC. It would have been a very popular victory for him.

[angst]

Originally posted by Frank de Jong
Lauda could still have retired in the Japanse GP since his lead in the WDC would probably have been big enough to claim the title anyway. So hardly any impact on the relation with Ferrari there.
Another possibility would have been that Mass would have won his home GP, one of the few with a correct prediction of the tire choice IIRC. It would have been a very popular victory for him.

Absolutely on both points, especially Mass

[Arjan de Roos]

Lauda was quite frustrated with the fact that Ferrari didn't develop as much as they could (with their resources like a private test track and both chassis and engine development in house) during 1976 and 1977. They basiccally stood still since the 312T Supercar had arrived.

Possibly he could have quit at the end of 1976 due to this and gone to Wolf for 1977. That would have been his third championship I guess. But it went different.

Lauda stayed on at Ferrari for 1977 based on 100% motivation to proove to himself and the rest of the world that he could become champ again (and beat El Lole in the running).

The fact that Enzo Ferrari reflected on the "Lauda affair" that had Niki stayed on he could have won titles in 1978 and 1979 is somewhat ill given the hard time Ferrari (Enzo and the company) was used to give to his drivers.

Makes you wonder if a talented driver such as Michael Schumacher would have fared any better in such a climate, let alone build a team around himself as he did (together with all the people at modern times Ferrari).

[D-Type]

There is a theory that the overlying momentum of the historical forces is such that certain things are inevitable. The historians have a technical name for it. The best illustrative example is Sarajevo 1914. If the assassination had somehow been prevented, World War I would still have occurred. The pressures between the great powers were reaching bursting point and some other incident would have precipitated the war.

On that basis I contend that it would still have rained at Suzuka and Lauda would still have withdrawn from the race so the events of 1977 would have been the same. An alternative hypothesis is that Hunt would still have been hungry in 1977 and would have taken the championship that year. The Lotus 78 and 79 would still have happened so 1978 onwards would be the same and in the global picture the only effect would be that the champions of 1976 and 1977 would have been juxtaposed.

[WGD706]

Originally posted by D-Type

On that basis I contend that it would still have rained at Suzuka and Lauda would still have withdrawn from the race so the events of 1977 would have been the same.

Don't you feel that Lauda's retiring from Suzuka in the rain was based on his new outlook on life that he received because of the crash at the 'Ring? Had the crash not happened, I think he would have continued in Japan...
Warren

[maxim]

Originally posted by WGD706


Don't you feek that Lauda's retiring from Suzuka in the rain was based on his new outlook on life that he recieved because of the crash at the 'Ring? Had the crash not happened, I think he would have continued in Japan...
Warren

.....and probably he would have won his second WDC just before that race at Fuji (not Suzuka ;) )

[JtP]

Originally posted by angst


I believe the attitude taken toward Lauda by the team after his withdrawal from the Japanese Grand Prix cooled the relationship somewhat. I don't think the pre-crash Lauda would have made that decision, which isn't to say I think Lauda became a 'coward'(which is what I believe was the undertone of Ferrari's attitude toward him), far from. Any man who can come back from what was so nearly a fatal crash so soon, witht the wounds that were still healing can not in anyway be called a coward in my eyes. I do believe, however, that being so close to death made him question what risks were worth taking and which were not.

I know it is another 'what if', but I was thinking about how much difference his arrival at Ferrari had made.

Lauda retired from the Japanese GP because his burns made it impossible for him to blink his eyes and with the spray he could not see. The spray was not getting on his eyes, but the blinking apparently allows you to refocus your eyes.

For the coward bit. It is not whether you are brave or not, but a realisation of the risks before the accident. Thus if you accept that injury which hurts is a possibility, getting the injury and getting back in the car is not a problem. Afterall that is the possible price of racing and if you don't want hurt in a racing car, don't get in one.

Other drivers, Mansell being near the top of the list, think they shouldn't get hurt and therfore whine when they do. Its the no imagination, so there is no risk of hurting themselves and they are the bravest of the brave until the sore bit comes. Remember Mansell hitting the barrier and hurting his back in Japan in 87 after running over a kerb and losing the car. He was quoted as saying "that shouldn't be the penalty for hitting a kerb" Well what is the penalty for hitting the barrier?

The other side of the coin is Barry Sheene, who in his latter years on a bike could not take the pain in his legs out his hand on the throttle. Who can blame him, he knew if he dropped the bike he would probably never walk again. He must have had two large cutouts in the tank for his balls, because they must have been 10 times the normal size of those fitted to lesser mortals.

[angst]

Originally posted by JtP


Lauda retired from the Japanese GP because his burns made it impossible for him to blink his eyes and with the spray he could not see. The spray was not getting on his eyes, but the blinking apparently allows you to refocus your eyes.

For the coward bit. It is not whether you are brave or not, but a realisation of the risks before the accident. Thus if you accept that injury which hurts is a possibility, getting the injury and getting back in the car is not a problem. Afterall that is the possible price of racing and if you don't want hurt in a racing car, don't get in one.

Other drivers, Mansell being near the top of the list, think they shouldn't get hurt and therfore whine when they do. Its the no imagination, so there is no risk of hurting themselves and they are the bravest of the brave until the sore bit comes. Remember Mansell hitting the barrier and hurting his back in Japan in 87 after running over a kerb and losing the car. He was quoted as saying "that shouldn't be the penalty for hitting a kerb" Well what is the penalty for hitting the barrier?

The other side of the coin is Barry Sheene, who in his latter years on a bike could not take the pain in his legs out his hand on the throttle. Who can blame him, he knew if he dropped the bike he would probably never walk again. He must have had two large cutouts in the tank for his balls, because they must have been 10 times the normal size of those fitted to lesser mortals.

It's strange you should mention Mansell in that context. I've argued before that I thought Patrese was the better driver, he gave Mansell a real run for his money in '91. When the fully 'active' car came in '92 then the blind faith (the lack of imagination) of Mansell in the car is what, I believe, seperated him from Patrese - an intelligent man who perhaps couldn't train himself to put all his faith in technology.

Jtp - I had not heard that before, but it does make sense.

Thinking about it I believe that '75-'77 would have been Lauda's, '78 would still have gone to the dominant Lotus then '79 would ahve been Lauda's again. Would he have still retired at the end of '79? With the promise of the new turbo car? He seemed to love the challenge of developing the cars as much as the winning.

[petefenelon]

Originally posted by angst
....at the Nurburgring?

I got to thinking about this while watching th GP at Silverstone and thinking about Ferrari and Schumacher's domination.

If Lauda hadn't had his crash the 75,'76 and '77 would have been Lauda's first 3 WDC. Would he have pushed development of the 312T3? Would it have been closer to the 312T4? Could he have, just possibly, made it four in a row in '78? Then to five in '79.

Would Reutemann have still joined Ferrar in '77? Would Scheckter have joined in '79? Would Villeneuve's 2nd and 3rd Grands Prix have been at the wheel of the Lotus 79?

How long would F1 have stayed at the Nurburgring?

I love these alternate-history games...

My theory is that Niki's motivation was as much the development of a car as the racing of it.

Let's assume that Niki beats James in '76.

I don't think Reutemann would've been his '77 teammate - so 1977 has the tasty prospect of Niki and Gilles at Ferrari. I think Niki would've stayed with Ferrari a couple of years longer, removing the need for Scheckter to join - chalk up (say) the '78 title to Niki and call '79 a close one in the same way that '84 was close between Prost and Lauda in "real life". Let's for argument's sake say that Gilles narrowly edges Niki, which causes Niki to start looking around for something else -- Niki's bright enough to see the writing on the wall, the future was ground-effects and turbos so I reckon he would've been off to the team that seemed to offer most promise - which at that point would probably be Renault. Big manufacturer pumping a lot into their programme. Probably means Jabouille out of the game a little earlier. Probably also means no more titles for Niki, I reckon by the end of '80 or so, not happy at the way ground effects are going, he gets bored and goes off to play with aeroplanes, but he's now a four-time title winner (75-6-7-8 all on the trot).

This leaves a few dangling threads - where does Reutemann go from the fairly disappointing Brabham at the end of '76? - Lotus is hardly seen as a hot seat at the time, but would Carlos and the 78 be a title challenger? (Ronnie and Carlos, which means Gunnar Nilsson doesn't get a crack of the whip?) McLaren perhaps, because Hunt probably gets bored after not winning the '76 title and retires a couple of years early.....?

Where does Jody go when Wolf decides to jack it in at the end of '78, or does he retire from F1 there and then as an unfulfilled talent? Can't see him going back to McLaren, but I bet he would've been one hell of a Williams driver! - Jones/Scheckter, with Regga taking early retirement, perhaps? I reckon the foursome of Jody/Alan/Patrick/Frank would've been pretty formidable.

[Vicuna]

Interesting Pete but there is no way Gilles would have been a Ferrari driver any earlier.


And you can't be a bigger GV fan than me.

[Megatron]

The great question in motorsports. What would things be like if they were different.

The sad thing is, as many conclusions as we think can reach, we don't know.

[Mallory Dan]

Pete, your hypotheses is interesting, but a little confusing. Are you saying Niki in the 312T3 would have beaten the Lotus 79 in 78? I can't see that at all I'm afraid.

Next, why do you have GV at Ferrari in 77 with Niki? OK he'd won in FAt in Canada/US in 76, but I don't think he was that highly thought of by then. Surely it was the drive at Silverstone in mid-77 that really made him.

In 77 you have Ronnie and Reuteman at Lotus, but what about Mario? He'd won in Japan late 76. and knew by then how good the 78 potentially was. Don't think he'd have left Lotus before the 77 season therefore.

I suspect you're a year or so out on some of these, were you in the Maltings last night, or the Ackhorne maybe !!

[mat1]

The withdrawal of lauda from F1 in 1979 was not just motivated by boredom, but also by a hatred for the groundeffect cars. And by the necessity to drive in the Alfa with a DFV instead of the V12.

And that would have been the same anyway. On the other hand, I think the prospect of developing a turbo engine would have been very interesting to Lauda.

But to sum it up, I think he still would have withdrawn.

mat1

[angst]

I always got the impression that Ruetemann was drafted in to replace Lauda in the team. I don't think Ferrari thought he was going to recover. But, with his obvious dissatisfaction with Brabham ( and more particularly the Alfa engines) then maybe Ferrari would have been in the market for him anyway (though Regazzzoni was doing a good solid job as a number 2). If we take the route that Reutemann does indeed join Ferrari then I think Lauda would have annhailated him that first year. The team would be 100% behind him (unlike the reality of '77, where Reutemann seemed to be favoured in alot of ways). '78, Lauda wouldn't be able to beat the Lotus, I don't think. At the end of the year Gilles Villeneuve gets the chance to stand in for his hero Peterson at the US and Canadian Grands Prix. These two races, along with his '77 debut are enough to convince Ferrari that he is the man to replace the departing Ruetemann.

Lauda and Villeneuve at Ferrari in '79, what a combination. Lauda wins his fourth WDC, Villeneuve learns his trade very publicly with a number of errors (much as in '78 in reality). At the end of the year, even though there is the propect of developing the new turbo Lauda retires. The ground effect cars are just not to his liking. Who would join Villeneuve? Patrese? Giacomelli?, de Angelis?

Scheckter and Jones at Williams? Light the fuse and step back...

[petefenelon]

Originally posted by Mallory Dan
Pete, your hypotheses is interesting, but a little confusing. Are you saying Niki in the 312T3 would have beaten the Lotus 79 in 78? I can't see that at all I'm afraid.

I think I'd had a Bombay Sapphire and bitter lemon too many, and skipped 1977 ;)

[David T.]

If Lauda hadn't had his crash, now I would be the world champion

[SEdward]

Lauda would have won the 76 championship comfortably. James would have put in his late-season charge to no avail, got bored with F1 and gone back to concentrating on booze and gurlies (rather than booze, gurlies AND racing). Reutemann would never have joined Ferrari and would have gone for Lotus instead, ousting Ronnie.

This would have caused Jupiter to collide with the moon, bringing about the immediate downfall of Ferrari, Lotus and Mclaren and the financial collapse of Renault. As a consequence, most F1 drivers were relegated to Formula Junior handicap events at the re-opened Brooklands (see above) and an exodus of burgeoning talent to the Temporada Series, etc. Politoys, Maki and Trojan were the only teams left in the F1 championship, which was disputed on a couple of disused airfields in northern England and a couple of shopping centre carparks in Utah.

Shurely shome mishtake.
That's enough speculation for now.

Edward.