14 replies to this topic

[le chat noir]

Hello all, Hoe you've had a good xmas and new year.

I've had an idea, I think its a good 'un, but bear with me, it needs an explanation as to how it works, and your adherence to the rules, so please read all of this instructional first post.

We all have varying opinions as to who will do best in the coming year (indeed in participants overall abilities) and enjoy arguing the various points. Individual opinions though are biased by our own subjectivity, and can thus give flawed and debatable results as to who is best. What we need, and what may give a truer picture (a better forecast, if you will) is a way to take the opinion of the entire forum as one.

This idea came from wanting to know how support for participants was spread amongst the members of the forum, but a poll only allows twelve choices, rather than 24 as would be neccessary, and only accepts one answer. So I thought I could get you to rate every driver, but this is unimaginative and time consuming, and people would not want to rate all 24 each time.

So instead, I thought of something else. Rather than rate who you like/support most, I'd like you to rate who you think will do the best in the coming year - by trying to guess their final championship order.

But its still slightly more dynamic than that.

Each poster must vote for the Top 8 championship order as you guess it will be. And award them chamionship points as if they had finished a race. So you'd set it out in a table like this:

Round 1
1 Driver A 10
2 Driver B 8
3 Driver C 6
4 Driver D 5
5 Driver E 4
6 Driver F 3
7 Driver G 2
8 Driver H 1

These would then be added to the current championship rankings running on the forum. ie to the previous posts.

So if the above were the first post, the next poster would quote that championship order, lay out their table and then add the points on in a new championship table

eg
in quote
Round 1
1 Driver A 10
2 Driver B 8
3 Driver C 6
4 Driver D 5
5 Driver E 4
6 Driver F 3
7 Driver G 2
8 Driver H 1
in quote

Round 2
1 Driver D 10
2 Driver F 8
3 Driver L 6
4 Driver K 5
5 Driver A 4
6 Driver G 3
7 Driver H 2
8 Driver B 1

Championship after 2/2
1 Driver D 15
2 Driver A 14
3 Driver F 11
4 Driver B 9
5 Driver C 6
6 Driver L 6
7 Driver K 5
8 Driver G 5
9 Driver E 4
10 Driver F 3
11 Driver H 3

The third poster would then quote this championship at 2/2 and run their own round.

So....
its the forum forecast we're interested in here, so amend your races from what might be your own predicted order, into positions that bring the forum forecast to most closely resemble your own idea. For instance, if you thought the order ran ABCDEFGH, and the forum currently ran ABCEDFHG, intsead of simply having your race end ABCDEFGH you might run it DGABCFEH, giving D and G the best chance to get back in order.

I think thats all you need to know to understand how this works.
To be clear, again, this is for who you think WILL do best in 2006, in a search for the forum to forecast participants final championship finishing positions, NOT who you most support and DESIRE/HOPE/FANTASISE will do well. (As an aside, it will be interesting to see after the first 19 rounds/posts how close we get on their true/real scores/points).

I would also like you to rate the teams as well, producing then, a forecast for final finsihing positions of both WDC and CC.
(Run these as different races, and award teams scores by in the same way as drivers. Do not start giving them 18 points thinking of a 1-2 finish. Rate them so that you have 8 different finishing teams)

So your post should be laid out like this:

Quote
WDC table
CC table
end quote

WDC round x
CC round x

WDC champ standing after x/x rounds
CC champ standing after x/x rounds

Any comment you'd like to make

I think this group forecast could prove really interesting, and will show if we're all a bunch of fantasists or know what we're talking about! I hope its understandable. If you have queries please ask before running your race. Remember 1 race per poster. Voting/racing should end before the Bahrain GP, after which a new championship could be begun following knowledge of how they all run in reality.

I've stuck a poll on to see if you think this idea is a good one, or misguided/stupid.
Thanks.

_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________


I'll begin the championship then, to be known as 'Le chat noir's Pre-season F1 forecast championship (or F1FC):

F1FC WDC Round 1
1 Michael Schumacher 10
2 Kimi Raikonnen 8
3 Fernando Alonso 6
4 Juan-Pablo Montoya 5
5 Jarno Trulli 4
6 Jenson Button 3
7 Mark Webber 2
8 David Coulthard 1

F1FC CC Round 1
1 McLaren 10
2 Ferrari 8
3 Toyota 6
4 Honda 5
5 Renault 4
6 Red Bull 3
7 Williams 2
8 BMW-Sauber 1


F1FC standings after Round 1 of 1 in Le chat noir's mind, London

WDC After 1/1
1 Michael Schumacher 10
2 Kimi Raikonnen 8
3 Fernando Alonso 6
4 Juan-Pablo Montoya 5
5 Jarno Trulli 4
6 Jenson Button 3
7 Mark Webber 2
8 David Coulthard 1

CC After 1/1
1 McLaren 10
2 Ferrari 8
3 Toyota 6
4 Honda 5
5 Renault 4
6 Red Bull 3
7 Williams 2
8 BMW-Sauber 1
_________________________________________________________________

Over to you!

[metz]

You should go and help Max make up some more rules.
You are obviously very qualified...

[Orin]

*Ouch!* My poor head, is this a variation of Mornington Crescent?

[RDM]

Goodge St

[tifosi]

Quote

Originally posted by le chat noir
F1FC WDC Round 1
1 Michael Schumacher 10
2 Kimi Raikonnen 8
3 Fernando Alonso 6
4 Juan-Pablo Montoya 5
5 Jarno Trulli 4
6 Jenson Button 3
7 Mark Webber 2
8 David Coulthard 1

F1FC CC Round 1
1 McLaren 10
2 Ferrari 8
3 Toyota 6
4 Honda 5
5 Renault 4
6 Red Bull 3
7 Williams 2
8 BMW-Sauber 1

If MS gets 10 points, how come Ferrari only get 8. Did I miss something?

[lustigson]

I don't seem to get it either. We just predict the WDC and WCC outcomes and then we add all of our guesses together?

[RDM]

Sudbury Town

[le chat noir]

Quote

Originally posted by lustigson
I don't seem to get it either. We just predict the WDC and WCC outcomes and then we add all of our guesses together?

Yeah. Predict the finishing positions, score them as if in a race, add them to the running totals, ie the previous scores. If we were all to do that it would give a forecast that took in everyone's opinions. And give a general feeling of what this forum expects to happen.

Quote

Originally posted by tifosi


If MS gets 10 points, how come Ferrari only get 8. Did I miss something?

That MS was given 10 and Ferrari 8 was as a result of me imagining MS will win the WDC but McLaren the CC. The scores are a result of that. Your vote may then alter their order, leading to a whole forum forecast.

Quote

Originally posted by Orin
*Ouch!* My poor head, is this a variation of Mornington Crescent?

What is this?

And what is Goodge St and Sudbury Town refer to?

[Orin]

Quote

Originally posted by le chat noir


What is this?

And what is Goodge St and Sudbury Town refer to?

It's a rather convoluted game based on the London Underground, more info here.

and... Hangar Lane

[zac510]

Heathrow Terminal 4!


aaagh!

[Mauseri]

vv

Quote

F1FC WDC Round 2
1 Michael Schumacher 10
2 Kimi Raikkonnen 8
3 Juan Montoya 6
4 Fernando Alonso 5
5 Felipe Massa 4
6 Jenson Button 3
7 Giancarlo Fisichella 2
8 Ralf Schumacher 1

WDC After 2/2
1 Michael Schumacher 20
2 Kimi Raikkonnen 16
3 Fernando Alonso 11
3 Juan Montoya 11
5 Jenson Button 6
6 Jarno Trulli 4
6 Felipe Massa 4
8 Giancarlo Fischella 2
8 Mark Webber 2
10 Ralf Schumacher 1
10 David Coulthard 1

[Mauseri]

Quote

Originally posted by tifosi
If MS gets 10 points, how come Ferrari only get 8. Did I miss something?

yeah ... what if we just do this with drivers .. and then fix teams in the end

[RDM]

Quote

Originally posted by zac510
Heathrow Terminal 4!


aaagh!

Mmm, may have to refer to the, er, "rules" on that, as Heathrow Terminal 4 is currently out of service whilst they weld the T5 spur/loop whatever on the side. Need a bus from Hatton Cross atm. Terminals 1,2 and 3 all still operating. I'll get my coat while I'm there....

Anyway, Gants Hill

[fifi]

im confused

[zac510]

RDM, hence the 'aargh, not Terminal 4 again!'

How come JVi doesn't have any points yet?