It is just three weeks to go now, before the action breaks loose in Bahrain! Months of hard work and preparation will be put to the test.This years heavyweight showdown should be a real cracker of a season, and in addition to some new and interesting chassis/engine/tire combinations, we have also got a couple of new drivers to greet, and a revised weekend format. That obviously includes a new qualifying format of course...
So which teams have done their homework? -Here are my thoughts....
-Renault -
...have looked really strong in every test with their new R26. They have covered a lot of kilometres, even if they got their V8 running on track relatively late. But that doesn't seem to have hurt them at all, and they did not rest on their laurels while waiting for the new engine. -They used the R25 package to establish a good baseline for tyre and vehicle development. (They also found time to give some new drivers a test - Giorgio Mondini, Jose Maria Lopez and Robert Kubica - the latter impressed and got snapped up by BMW Sauber, to become their third driver.)
In all tests, Renault have been at, or very near the top of the times. And from the outside, more or less every test have been problem-free, only hick-up being that faulty rear wing.
Full laptimes from Barcelona and Jerez suggest that they have the fastest car. Fisichella, Alonso and their new test driver Kovalainen have all been really quick.
So once again, Renault and Alonso will have to start the season as favourites for both titles, and I would be more surprised to see them losing their titles, than scoring back-to-backs.
Alonso is still their man most likely to do it, but Fisichella should, and I think will be closer. Not only have the car been built with some of his preferences in mind, but as Alonso is leaving, he may find himself in a more favourable position in the team. (Maybe he will become Briatore's blue-eyed boy?) -But, he have to really convince this year, to keep his seat beyond 2006.
Renault wont get any victories for free though, Ferrari and Honda in particular, will run them close. Then in time, McLaren Mercedes should get in the mix.
-Ferrari -
Ferrari's new car, the F248, has clearly got pace, but it has suffered some problems. The basis is really good, and both Massa and Schumacher sound upbeat, but they have made a point of saying they need to find and maintain better reliability. But Ferrari haven't let some minor problems get in the way of getting a lot of work done; they have in addition to running the new car, also used the F2005 and the F2004M, with a V8 and a detuned V10.
The car with the V10 have been used to conduct lengthy tyre-evaluation work, and there is seemingly little between Bridgestone and Michelin now, but some of the traits the marques had in 2004, are once again evident.
Surely Ferrari can't build a bad car two years in a row? Nah, not likely, and nothing suggest the F248 is not up to it, or that it hasn't got potential. Ferrari will once again fight at the front consistently, and Schumacher should be able to trouble Alonso (Fisichella?) for the crown.
But what about Massa? Will he be strong enough for Ferrari to entertain thoughts of a getting the constructors title back? (if the car has the potential of course.) -I doubt that, but I do think that from time to time, he will turn heads and raise some eyebrows.
-Honda-
Following the Honda buy-out, we did not notice too much difference, which I suppose is good. Honda (B.A.R) again continued their trend of running an interim car, the "concept car", in testing. That has helped getting a read on new for '06-parts very early. Honda are namely back to being powerful and reliable.
I also believe that Button will be able to shut the critics, he WILL win this year. And so should Barrichello, who is probably the toughest team-mate Button has ever had.
Of further note is that Honda will have a third car out on Fridays this year, again Davidson has the role. With such a good car already, this could be a very important and decisive ingredient.
The continuity in Honda's (B.A.R) tech department is almost Ferrari-like, and together with the advantages of a third car, that should make 2006 a very good year, because the Honda RA106 has shown serious pace.
I think they will be able to trouble Renault here and there, but beating Ferrari and McLaren should probably be their target. That means they will fight for second in the constructors championship, but third is probably more realistic (testing has shown that they could beat either Ferrari or McLaren.) The Button-Barrichello combination is better than Schumacher-Massa though, so we'll see...
Going into 2005, they were runners-up, with more to lose than to gain. This year, that is turned on it's head.
-McLaren-Mercedes -
McLaren-Mercedes have once again suffered engine woesin pre-season testing. Mercedes were reluctant to agree to the V8 formula, and as reliabilty has always been their achilles heel, one can understand why. Making a relaible V8 has proved very difficult for them, but with the revised engine, things atleast seem to be going in the right direction. It is still a bit shaky, they need to cover some race-distances, and they also need more power. Haug has afterall, said that where they are now, is where they targeted to be in December. They are very much on the back foot in other words.
The McLaren chassis seems very good though, Räikkönen, Montoya and de la Rosa has been complimentary, saying it's got a lot of potential. de la Rosa has also said that despite all of their current problems, they should be able to fight for both titles eventually. But I atleast, fear that it will once again be too late before they have a fix. Räikkönen, and Montoya too of course, wont be happy.
But there have been some good news too, Vodafone and Alonso is onboard from 2007.
...But there have also been more bad news; Newey has left, and so will more important staff, rumour has it. Mind, McLaren have also recruited some good guys, so for the short term atleast, things should not be worrying. (And I think they will be good also in the longer term, such is the depth of the top teams engineering group.)
So I can't really see McLaren being quite fast enough, and certainly not reliable enough, to allow them to fight for the titles. They will fix the problems of course, and they will win races, but it will be a bit too late for a convincing assault on the championships. They will come on really strong after a few races, and stay strong, but I think they will only be in a fight for third in the CC. As I see it, the form Honda should have from the get-go, might prevent McLaren Mercedes from finishing higher.
As for the drivers; Räikkönen will again have the upper hand I think, but it might depend on what happens in 2007....
-Williams Cosworth -
Williams have enjoyed a very encouraging build-up to the season, and they have a nice, quick and reliable car. Recent reports (which I might add, in all prudence mind you, only "confirms" what I said all along) say that the Cosworth engine is the highest revving. So it has been up to Williams, to build a chassis to match their power plant.
The ambitious Sam Michael was very positive about their first test with a new engine and new tires, and the test results have probably allowed him to stay optimistic and positive.
They have only now begun to scratch the surface with Bridgestone, and they have been top of the times on a few days now. They are also working on a new gearbox, seamless shifts, and the sooner they make that reliable the better. The gains are big!
Williams have a good driver pairing in Webber and Rosberg, but Rosberg is a rookie. He has gotten the thumbs up from team personnel, but he has spun and caused a handful of red flags... Trying to keep up with Webber wont be easy, but there is no doubt that he is quick.
Another important asset is that Williams will now enjoy the advantage of a third car on Fridays. For that job they have the very able Wurz. The best man for that job, especially when one of their race drivers is a rookie, eventhough Rosberg is said to be extremely adept on technical matters.
I have said before that I think Williams can win a race atleast in the first part of the season. The reason I say that, is because later in the year, the financial muslces of the manufacturers will probably make sure some of them will come up with something better than Cosworth.
It is up to Williams themselves too of course, but their new wind tunnel is now running as it should. Loic Bigois and Patrick Head, Sam Michael and Simon Corbyn will have a tough task
keeping up with the opposition. And a lot rest on Bridgestone too.
I see Williams being in the fight for fifth in the CC (with a bit of luck, maybe fourth), but I think that the group of teams they will find themselves in for most of the time will be huge. So it might only be sixth in the end.
-Toyota -
Toyota introduced their car very early, and that was in hindsight very good (it always is of course), as they have suffered a few problems. They have not found a good symbiosis between the Bridgestone's and their suspension. Graining rears has often been mentioned. And there has been a handful of pictures of smoking engines as well.
But Toyota work as intensively as ever, a revised aerodynamic package just made its first appearance, Trulli was very happy with it, and they have also got a B-version due around Monaco.
Toyota's first win are overdue, but as it is now, I don't think they will be able to win on merit this year either. Podiums like last year, yes. I am mindful about the potential improvements their B-version could represent, especially when it comes to making good use of the Bridgestone tyres, so they might surprise later in the year, and leap further towards the front.
Ralf Schumacher should have a better start to the season than he got last year, and my impression is that atleast early on, he was more content with the new car than Trulli was. Again it was about the front suspension. The drivers will be evenly mathced, and will make sure Toyota fight for fifth in the CC.
-Red Bull Ferrari -
Red Bull got their RB2 out very early, second actually after Toyota. That however, was only a shake down on Silverstone, in the cold of December. Already there the team discovered problems with cooling, which has since plagued them, and seriously limited their running, and how well prepared they are. But the car looks great, and the engine should be very good. (I wonder how many upgrades they will get though?)
There has also some been some problems with their gearbox.
The very good news is that most of their problems now seem cured; in the ongoing Valencia test, they are now running a revised RB2, with a new aerodynamic package, and probably a re-arrangement to their cooling lay-out. The new engine-cover/sidepods haven't got holes in them anymore (which they had to make to aid cooling), only some tiny, tiny gills.
It's now clear that the car has some pace indeed, Klien and Coulthard have put in some respectable times in testing this week. That the problems would get quickly fixed was only to be epxected; Red Bull already had Mark Smith, but they also got Adrian Newey on board now! That dropped like a bomb (wow, F1 actually managed to keep a secret), and one understands why Smith says that "Red Bull have the strongest engineering group of any team I've worked with".
Some Newey/Smith upgrades should be useful, and Newey is already on it; he is spending his days going over drawings of the RB2.
I think that this year, they will eventually get a podium or two on merit (Monaco perhaps? -in the hands of DC), but they too will be in that big group of teams I think we will see, so it will be very, very hard to improve on their position in the CC from 2005.
-BMW -Sauber -
Sauber's new car looks very good! Is this the best car they have ever built? Afterall, the F1.06 is Sauber's design, in BMW guise. And the team will I think, have to be considered as effectively being Sauber this year.
There have been positive signs from the new car, it has been very consistent, and their pace on longer runs on Barcelona has been very good. It is also encouraging and pleasant to hear Villeneuve say he can drive this car more as he wants. Heidfeld has also used the superlatives to describe the car. In addition it's also good to see them test with two cars, something Sauber seldom did. A sign that there are more money available, now that the team filter into becoming a big top-team outfit.
Prospects are good, and they have a very good driver pairing, atleast if Villeneuve feels comfortable with the car. They should run each other close, and I see Red Bull, Williams and Toyota being their combatants- that means they should fight for sixth or seventh (eight worst case scenario) in the CC, but I think they will be up there and sniff at podiums a few times too.
They are targeting a top six finish, according to Heidfeld.
-Scuderia Toro Rosso-
...They should definately do better than Minardi, as they will have a bigger budget, and a better design team. We haven't seen much of their new car, but it does strongly resemble the Red Bull RB1 in many areas, but that was as expected. STR will be the only team to use a restricted V10, and that has and will create some debate. Midland's Kolles has more or less said that STR cannot be allowed to beat them.
The torque curve of the V10, even if rev-limited, is very good, and if they still run it to the same specifications as they do now, many expect them to spring a surprise in Monaco. Not a win, but definately a jump in performance.
The very promising Liuzzi will be up alongside Scott Speed, and this one should also be interesting to watch. I think Liuzzi will win this one.
I expect STR to fight Midland and Super Aguri.
-Midland F1 -
...They probably hope that their new car, the M16, is what the name suggest! Well, maybe not quite, but early signs from testing are that they have atleast been able to close the gap a little.
They have a decent driver pairing in Monteiro and Albers, and the Portugese is a very safe pair of hands.
I would be surprised to see Midland score any points, atleast on merit, and I expect this, IMO, soul-less team to be the tail enders once Super Aguri gets their new car racing.
-Super Aguri-
This team has been put together in a hurry, and is still by far the smallest F1 team. Their staff counts around 130-150 currently, which is around half the size of STR and Midland I believe.
They need to recruit and grow rapidly, and new guys being thrown into their roles in the middle of a season, might prove tough. Their greatest help is of course Honda; they will receive support from them, and will lean on them for a while. They will also race with Honda's V8, and that wont hurt.
Expectations are very low for the first few races, afterall they will use old Arrows A23's, hacked together to conform with this years rules.
They plan to have their own car ready for the european season, and as they have used Honda guys as consultants in the design process, this one should be a car able to keep them well in touch.
I know very little about Ide, but Sato is a known quantity.
Maybe their vision of an all-japanese team will be of a slight disadvantage? I am not sure how set they really are on that though.
So what's your thoughts on the 2006 season? Spit it out!
....Btw, next weeks Barcelona test will be very important, and I wouldn't be surprised if I had to edit after that one...
, but for the potential it has to significantly alter the championship outcome 
