
Which manufacturers might leave, when & why?
#1
Posted 02 January 2007 - 03:18
My question is, which manufacturers would be most likely to quit, why, and when?
My own feeble opinions are as follows:
Mercedes - to me fairly unlikely to leave anytime soon, one reason being the connection with McLaren. Say what you like about Ron Dennis, but he's first and formost a racer, not a corporate bean counter.
BMW - I have no sense of how this one might play out. Is their success in F1 necessary to their continued funding? They've been around racing for a long time. So long as they can compete with or beat Mercedes, are they safe, or do they need to be near the top?
Renault - history says (both recently and years past) that success IS necessary for their continued involvement. Should the next few years not be kind of Renault F1, it would seem to me that within 3 years or so we could see them back off into either supplying engines or out of the sport altogether.
Honda - they have a strong racing history, even if mostly with bikes, but the mindset is there. Still, if the years continue to go on without any success (as in WDC or WCC), will impatience rule? I'd think 3-5 years would possibly bring on the end... for now.
Toyota - Unless their partnership with Williams gives them engineering and development benefits which help them turn the corner, am I the only one that sees them possibly bailing from F1 within 2 years? They're not racers, and if they have nothing to market from their F1 involvement, is there any reason for them to stay?
Ferrari - I may get laughed at here, but financial issues may be the only reason Ferrari might drop from F1. As the only constant from the first year of the WDC, it seems unfathomable. Their involvment is certainly a plus for their road car sales (talk about the tail wagging the dog compared to their early days in the sport), and while I don't believe that they must consistantly win in order to maintain that marketing benefit, if the bigger companies can outspend them to the point that they can no longer compete, it could be inevitable.
Thoughts?
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#2
Posted 02 January 2007 - 05:26
Originally posted by MPea3
Dr. Mario's comments got me thinking. I've felt that the shift toward manufacturers is a path which might not be long term for F1, but I hardly claim to know that as anything more than an opinion. Certainly though, individual manufacturerds in F1 coem and go, even if for a while before returning again. Ford (Jag) did recently, and Renault seems to at least have had their continued involvement in doubt. - Some manufacturer(s) will leave, but not as soon as you think.
My question is, which manufacturers would be most likely to quit, why, and when?
My own feeble opinions are as follows:
Mercedes - to me fairly unlikely to leave anytime soon, one reason being the connection with McLaren. Say what you like about Ron Dennis, but he's first and formost a racer, not a corporate bean counter. - I agree and do not see them leave within the next 5 seasons.
BMW - I have no sense of how this one might play out. Is their success in F1 necessary to their continued funding? They've been around racing for a long time. So long as they can compete with or beat Mercedes, are they safe, or do they need to be near the top? - Their involvement is so new, as an outright team that they will not leave within the next 5 seasons no matter how much or little they acheive.
Renault - history says (both recently and years past) that success IS necessary for their continued involvement. Should the next few years not be kind of Renault F1, it would seem to me that within 3 years or so we could see them back off into either supplying engines or out of the sport altogether. - If they do not win anything the next 3 seasons, rumbling from within will make them move towards either re-hireing Alonso or "step back" to become an engine supplier. A lot will ride on how competetive their customer team(s) will be with their engine, if beaten by them it will likely hurry them leaving. They will not however leave as a team until at least 5 seasons from now.
Honda - they have a strong racing history, even if mostly with bikes, but the mindset is there. Still, if the years continue to go on without any success (as in WDC or WCC), will impatience rule? I'd think 3-5 years would possibly bring on the end... for now. - They will not leave until they win as a minimum a WCC, and I see them in the sport for a long time, they will not leave within the next 5 seasons.
Toyota - Unless their partnership with Williams gives them engineering and development benefits which help them turn the corner, am I the only one that sees them possibly bailing from F1 within 2 years? They're not racers, and if they have nothing to market from their F1 involvement, is there any reason for them to stay? - The one manufacturer who could leave as the first one, unless they get some sort of success within the next 5 seasons they will pull out as a team and revert to become only an engine supplier. The earliest they will leave is the 2012 season.
Ferrari - I may get laughed at here, but financial issues may be the only reason Ferrari might drop from F1. As the only constant from the first year of the WDC, it seems unfathomable. Their involvment is certainly a plus for their road car sales (talk about the tail wagging the dog compared to their early days in the sport), and while I don't believe that they must consistantly win in order to maintain that marketing benefit, if the bigger companies can outspend them to the point that they can no longer compete, it could be inevitable. - The will never ever leave the port, absolutely positively they will not.
Thoughts?
Those are my thoughts, I will also expect other manufactures to enter the sport within the next 5 seasons.

#3
Posted 02 January 2007 - 10:18
They could start leaving very soon probably. Mainly because they won't stay around without at least the potential to win, and if they're not competitive this year they're not allowed to be until 2011.
#4
Posted 02 January 2007 - 11:47
While there has no doubt been a shift from Ferrari producing road cars only to fund their racing, to having a road car industry in it's own right, I don't believe there is any indication that Ferrari are more interested in their road cars than their racing cars, and whilst the dog may no longer simply wag the tail, the tail certainly does not wag the dog. (Although I note your description as a comparison rather than an absolute).Originally posted by MPea3
Ferrari - I may get laughed at here, but financial issues may be the only reason Ferrari might drop from F1. As the only constant from the first year of the WDC, it seems unfathomable. Their involvment is certainly a plus for their road car sales (talk about the tail wagging the dog compared to their early days in the sport).
#5
Posted 02 January 2007 - 11:52
#6
Posted 02 January 2007 - 11:58
BMW is another story. I don't think they have to win to enhance their profile. To be in the sport itself, strengthens their image.
Ferrari - obvious. Win or not, Ferrari would be less Ferrari without F1.
Honda - the thread starter stated it all
Renault - they won twice in a row. If they start losing, they still wil have proved their point - that they are automotive pioneers. First with the turbo (without winning the WC), but still. Now with winning.
McLaren/Mercedes - I really don't know
#7
Posted 02 January 2007 - 12:01
Steve.
#8
Posted 02 January 2007 - 12:10
#9
Posted 02 January 2007 - 12:19
This is what makes me think at least one manufacturer leaving in the next 5 years is inevitable. If the team isn't winning, or even worse is trundling round at the back, then questions are going to be asked in the boardroom. There's only so long that simply taking part will do your image good before you gain a reputation as a loser team. My picks for most likely to leave are Renault as soon as the team stops winning or possibly Toyota, especially if Honda continue to beat them convincingly.Originally posted by Dudley
They could start leaving very soon probably. Mainly because they won't stay around without at least the potential to win
This is also why I don't expect VW or PSA to go anywhere near F1 - they can have their own battle at LeMans, and even if they screw up they'll still be the second best manufacturer there. I could imagine that argument would be very persuasive to non-racing boardrooms.
#10
Posted 02 January 2007 - 14:42
Honda is underperforming in my opinion, but given their results are better than Toyota's they are safe.
In my opinion, Renault F1 team can really become a victim of corporate decision making process especially if the results are poor. Unlike any other F1 manufacturer Renault is not that globally oriented, and doesn't produce sport cars. So if a F1 team becomes a burden Ghosn will ditch it like any other marketing project that has lost its appeal.
BMW is still building the team and regardless of the results Dr.T has some years of carte blanche from BMW's board of directors. Besides, with all these Kubicas and Vettels BMW's F1 image is fresh and really appealing.
Mercedes is in really interesting position because the manufacturer holds only 40% of McLaren shares with Dennis and Ojjeh not willing to cede power. So the company won't be able to make the decision to quit alone.
Ferrari's position is solid. Since the whole FIAT Empire seems to be recovering, the team would continue to race.
#11
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:08
#12
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:35
Originally posted by Dudley
What other manufacturers? With the consolidation in the auto industry Audi/VW and PSA are the only real ones not involved at the moment.
They could start leaving very soon probably. Mainly because they won't stay around without at least the potential to win, and if they're not competitive this year they're not allowed to be until 2011.
That's a very Eurocentric view of the auto industry.
#13
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:36
I'm not sure. Presumably the sponsorship Ferrari are able to attract makes the F1 division pretty self-sufficient.Originally posted by Dudley
Doesn't Ferrari F1 recieve precisely nothing from the road car division though?
You may well be correct, but I'd be interested to know where your statistic come from.
#14
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:37
#15
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:51
Originally posted by Jacquesback
Don't forget that Ferrari receive a very handsome handout from Bernie to compete in F1.
Actually I think its pretty much chump change in the F1 world and its not so much a payment from Bernie as a payment from the other teams, who receive substantial exposure thanks to Ferrari's participation. And before we start this arguement, no I am not claiming Ferrrai is F1 but Ferrari do bring a substantial number of viewers to F1.
#16
Posted 02 January 2007 - 15:59
This sounds like very sensible policy to me.
#17
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:02
That is not the policy and you know it. Ask Ron.Originally posted by RDM
Well, the teams that have been most loyal to the sport, and have been involved continually the longest, do get more rewarded than new teams, or those that move in and out of the sport as their board of director sees fit over the years.
This sounds like very sensible policy to me.
#18
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:04
Originally posted by tifosi
Actually I think its pretty much chump change in the F1 world and its not so much a payment from Bernie as a payment from the other teams, who receive substantial exposure thanks to Ferrari's participation. And before we start this arguement, no I am not claiming Ferrrai is F1 but Ferrari do bring a substantial number of viewers to F1.
I'm not arguing or contesting the policy, only stating it's existence. I also don't think it's chump change.
#19
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:04
It's pretty much the policy as I understand it, however, I don't claim particular knowledge.Originally posted by Limits
That is not the policy and you know it. Ask Ron.
What is your understanding?
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#20
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:20
That it has nothing to do with loyalty to the sport or how many years they have been "loyal". McLaren, for instance, has time after time recieved blows from Max. I guess it is something personal between Max and Ron, but I don't think anyone except Ferrari is getting any advantages just because they have a history. Yes, they have the longest, continous, history, but unless there is some kind of a predifined scale, you can not say that Ferrari is gettoing their advantage because they have been in F1 forever.Originally posted by RDM
It's pretty much the policy as I understand it, however, I don't claim particular knowledge.
What is your understanding?
#21
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:24
Originally posted by Limits
That it has nothing to do with loyalty to the sport or how many years they have been "loyal". McLaren, for instance, has time after time recieved blows from Max. I guess it is something personal between Max and Ron, but I don't think anyone except Ferrari is getting any advantages just because they have a history. Yes, they have the longest, continous, history, but unless there is some kind of a predifined scale, you can not say that Ferrari is gettoing their advantage because they have been in F1 forever.
Although few have actually seen the Concorde agreement it is widely understood that there is a proviso for "time served" to the sport. I believe both Ron and Frank benefit from said policy although not a richly as Ferrari.
#22
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:37
Originally posted by Jacquesback
That's a very Eurocentric view of the auto industry.
In order to enter F1 a manufacturer would need to be in most of the countries it visits. F1 isn't going to have a majority prescence in Asia any time soon and none of the Korean or Chinese companies have the budget.
#23
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:48
Well, apparently Limits has seen it...at least he expects me to. (I don't). "That is not the policy and you know it. Ask Ron."Originally posted by Jacquesback
Although few have actually seen the Concorde agreement it is widely understood that there is a proviso for "time served" to the sport. I believe both Ron and Frank benefit from said policy although not a richly as Ferrari.
Surely if Ron answered my question he would have his tongue torn out by its roots, and be buried in the rough sand of the sea at low water mark where the tide ebbs and flows twice in twenty-four hours etc.? (Or is that the other secret society....)
#24
Posted 02 January 2007 - 16:53
#25
Posted 02 January 2007 - 18:18
No matter who comes after him, there will never be another Bernie.
Of all drivers ever in F1, it has often been said "There will never be another ....xyz" (insert your favorites from Fangio and onwards). Yet there was always another, some even better some at least compareable.
There wil NEVER be another Bernie!!!

#26
Posted 02 January 2007 - 19:08
Originally posted by Jacquesback
I'm not arguing or contesting the policy, only stating it's existence. I also don't think it's chump change.
I thought it was $5M US. While I wouldn't consider it chump change, in F1 terms, particulary among the top teams its not even catering money.
#27
Posted 02 January 2007 - 19:25
In any event Ferrari have been singled out and received a specific additiona payment as the only team at least since the first Concorde agreement was signed.
I am hugely biased being a Ferrari fan, but I will maintain that F1 is what it is for a lot of reasons, but Ferrari is a big part of that, and all we fans on Atlas mean nothing, but of the people without an interest in F1, they all know that Ferrari is in F1, they do bring casual viewers to TV and even races.
Is it fair that Ferrari is paid differently than the other teams? In an equal society no, but F1 is not and have never been an equal society, seem to recall that the GPMWCS (what ever they were called) offered to pay Ferrari a compareable amount, were they to come over.
And the fact remain that whatever Ferrari goes, the general public goes F1 wise.
These are the words from a Ferrari fanboy.

#28
Posted 02 January 2007 - 19:30
become one of the selected few:Originally posted by RDM
Well, apparently Limits has seen it...
http://www.concordea...ullConcorde.pdf
104 pages. Accurate? I would guess so. Complete? Propably not.
EDIT: If I am breaking some kind of rules by posting the link above, I do not mind at all if it is being removed.
#29
Posted 02 January 2007 - 19:57
Does it mention speacil payments to Ferrari?
I could not find it.

#30
Posted 02 January 2007 - 20:19
I see only three direct references to Ferrari:Originally posted by KWSN - DSM
I have only scrolled, need to print out at work tomorrow.
Does it mention speacil payments to Ferrari?
I could not find it.
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Manufacturer teams were those, including chiefly Ferrari, which sided with FIA's FISA arm against the mostly British teams which constituded FOCA.
when Ferrari and the other teams (the manufacturers) sided with the FIA against the mostly British teams (FOCA)
Third refernce is in a company name and adress thingy in the list of teams that agreed.
Where the money really part of the Concorde agreement? I seem to remember quite a few surprised voices when it slipped out. Maybe the truth is simply that there is one Concorde general agreement and specific contracts for each team, just like FIA tried to do, or actually managed to do, last year?
I do not feel too concerned about those things, there will always be things that we do not know. But my point was that there is zero evidence that "long and faithful service" is defined anywhere as a factor that decides the $$$. Unless of course the quotes I made above indicates that "faithful" is more important than "long". There is no <5 years = X $, 5-10 years = X*1.2, 10-20 years = X*1.5 etc.
#31
Posted 02 January 2007 - 20:28
At the height of the GMPWSCHFTY / FIA war last season I recall it as if someone (Bira??) posted an explanation of how much and why Ferrari was entitled to a special payment from the other teams.
My stance continue to be that this is as it has to be, however is close to "religion", where fore no argument is really going to sway me anyway.

#32
Posted 02 January 2007 - 21:04
#33
Posted 02 January 2007 - 21:13
#34
Posted 02 January 2007 - 22:10
Originally posted by carbonfibre
Every team get's a amount of money when they sign the new agreement.
Do they?
#35
Posted 02 January 2007 - 22:21
Originally posted by Jacquesback
Do they?
Yes basically I remember that everyone who signed the agreement got part of 500 Million dollar pool split up between the teams and the years of the contracts something I am guessing around 25 million year but with it weighted between teams who have been on the longest. Toro Rosso would have gotten quite a bit if they kept the Minardi name. But none got the huge signing bonus up front that Ferrari got, but then again few teams participated in that discussion because of the "break away" party all of the Manufacturers were partaking in.
#36
Posted 02 January 2007 - 23:36
Nice workOriginally posted by Limits
become one of the selected few:

#37
Posted 03 January 2007 - 20:04
can any new Manufacturers come in now?
or do they get a pass on that rule?
for how long?
would a new clean sheet motor be a unfair advantage?
looks like F-1 is painted into a corner if too many teams/Manufacturers drop out
#38
Posted 03 January 2007 - 20:12
Originally posted by ray b
with the no engine mods rule in place
can any new Manufacturers come in now?
or do they get a pass on that rule?
for how long?
would a new clean sheet motor be a unfair advantage?
looks like F-1 is painted into a corner if too many teams/Manufacturers drop out
May be its time for FIAT to start up the Alfa Romeo engine program to see if its feasible to re-enter F1

#39
Posted 04 January 2007 - 08:25
Mercedes: have come and gone in F1 earlier. But since buying into McLaren -- and being rumoured to take over the team completely -- I can't see Merc bowing out of F1 any time soon. Not for at least five years.
Honda: have also gome and gone before. Twice, even. Now that they have their own team (again), though, how would they jump ship again? Selling the team? To whom? Anyhow, hardly within the next couple of years, too.
Renault: come and gone twice before. Now with their own team. However, Renault seem most likely to me to quit again in the future. Goshn has stated repeatedly that the F1 results should remain. However, is regular race-winning -- instead of championships -- enough for the team? I find it hard to believe that Renault will win the title in the next two seasons with the current driver pairing. I could very much be mistaking on Kovalainen, though.
BMW: come and gone, yet another one. Hard to fathom them quitting any time soon, thouh. Just bought their own team, so at least five more years for them.
Toyota: soon-to-be the biggest car manufacturer in the world. But without any results in racing, as far as I know. At least of recent date. And the team cannot ride the 'One Aim' beginners' stuff any longer. It needs to win races and championships in the next three years or they're in real trouble.
And what about new manufacturers? VW/Audi should have entered a gazillion times if speculation were correct. And Hyundai has been rumoured many times, in the past, too. How about some Chinese or Indian car builder stepping in any time in the next five years? Why not buy Cosworth and do F1 with badged engines?
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#40
Posted 04 January 2007 - 09:32
#41
Posted 04 January 2007 - 10:57
Originally posted by lustigson
Ferrari: I find it very hard to conceive the Scuderia not being in Formula 1. Racing is their business, isn't it? And Formula 1 = Ferrari.
Mercedes: have come and gone in F1 earlier. But since buying into McLaren -- and being rumoured to take over the team completely -- I can't see Merc bowing out of F1 any time soon. Not for at least five years.
Honda: have also gome and gone before. Twice, even. Now that they have their own team (again), though, how would they jump ship again? Selling the team? To whom? Anyhow, hardly within the next couple of years, too.
Renault: come and gone twice before. Now with their own team. However, Renault seem most likely to me to quit again in the future. Goshn has stated repeatedly that the F1 results should remain. However, is regular race-winning -- instead of championships -- enough for the team? I find it hard to believe that Renault will win the title in the next two seasons with the current driver pairing. I could very much be mistaking on Kovalainen, though.
BMW: come and gone, yet another one. Hard to fathom them quitting any time soon, thouh. Just bought their own team, so at least five more years for them.
Toyota: soon-to-be the biggest car manufacturer in the world. But without any results in racing, as far as I know. At least of recent date. And the team cannot ride the 'One Aim' beginners' stuff any longer. It needs to win races and championships in the next three years or they're in real trouble.
And what about new manufacturers? VW/Audi should have entered a gazillion times if speculation were correct. And Hyundai has been rumoured many times, in the past, too. How about some Chinese or Indian car builder stepping in any time in the next five years? Why not buy Cosworth and do F1 with badged engines?
Ferrari - Ferrari's image will begin to dwindle if they leave F1. Whilst it is argued that F1 needs Ferrari, it is often forgotten that Ferrari needs F1.
Mercedes - Have seemed to be hit hardest in terms of the regulation changes and may start questioning their involvement if they are either not allowed greater technical freedom or can't turn F1 into open wheel DTM (controlled technology for marketing purposes, strictly cost controlled).
Honda - View F1 and racing generally slightly differently, it appears to me, from other manufacturers. They view it as an area for innovation, development and training of their technical staff. Might well become unhappy with the lack of technical freedom.
Renault - Ghosn is not a sentimantal man - pragmatic in the extreme, in fact - if it's not working for Renault then they'll get out. Having won back to back championships any drop off in performance might well see them re-assess the pluses and minuses of beinginvolved.
BMW - Really need to come up with the goods. Thiessen has obviously sold this well to the boardroom, but if he doesn't start producing results what good is it doing BMW the company?
Toyota - NASCAR may well prove to be the better option for them. If they can't start winning in F1 then there's only so long they'll keep pumping the yen in.
All - any downturn in the economic fortunes, particularly in Europe, and questions will be asked about all of the investments. Jaguar's fortunes were definately taking a turn for the better come the end of 2004, but even if they had started pulling in solid results I doubt that they would have remained in F1. Why? They were shutting down one manufacturing plant, laying off thousands of workers - it doesn't look good for any company to be paring down the workforce to that kind of extent. claiming financial pressures, whilst pouring millions upon millions into a racing programme.
#42
Posted 04 January 2007 - 13:09
And even the richest company can only spend so long throwing good money after bad. I've never really understood quite why Toyota are in F1 anyway (does it really help them shift Corollas and Yarises? They are good, well-made cars, but they aren';t in the slightest bit sporty) and I don't think that they are going about it the right way. The switch to Bridgestone tyres last year, made for commercial rather than competitive reasons, was a classic example of the kind of muddle-headed thinking that is likely to hamstring them for as long as they are in F1. Perhaps they can counter this with the sheer volume of money being thrown at the problem, but any team paying the kind of money they are for Ralf Schumacher really doesn't understand the game they are in.
#43
Posted 04 January 2007 - 13:21
I think for a car manufacturer that does not need to change their image, F1 is a complete waste of money.
#44
Posted 04 January 2007 - 13:40
Originally posted by Limits
[B
I think for a car manufacturer that does not need to change their image, F1 is a complete waste of money. [/B]
Always a tricky one. Sometimes I think it works. I subconsciously associate Honda with high tech engineering - and having an F1 team doubtless helps with this. But then perhaps that's got more to do with their adverts with the cool robots ;-)
Toyota, on the other hand, doesn't make me think of racing at all. And Mercedes, despite all their years in F1, still make me think of dull middle aged bank managers. BMW, who have had far less F1 success, still strike me as the sportier brand.
Sometimes, a competition programme certainly helps. How many Subaru Impreza Turbos would there be on the road had there not been a rally programme? And likewise, wasn't part of the appeal of the Sierra Cosworths down to their on-track performance in the BTCC.
Not that I'm the best person to judge - given that I've never owned a car in my life. Or maybe the very fact that I've been watching F1 for nearly 25 years and have never bothered with road cars is proof of the limitations of marketing...