Originally posted by HSJ
Sorry, I did read the thread, but that piece had escaped my attention. (Amazing!)
It's ok.
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How AMuS sees the Ferrari-McLaren fight develop track by track:
Nürburgring - Predicting a favourite here is just as difficult as predicting the weather in the area. The lay-out with its slow corners should favour McLaren though the rough asphalt should benefit Ferrari.
Budapest - The track is slippery, the pace remains low - it seems the perfect circuit for the McLaren engineers. A victory for anyone else but Hamilton or Alonso would be a surprise.
Istanbul - The Turkish GP should suit Ferrari better. The tarmac is rough and offers a lot of grip, the trackcharacteristics are favourable for a Ferrari victory as well.
Monza - The highspeed track isn't comparable with any other circuit. The cars drive with extremely low wing settings and there's only braking in four corners and a couple of chicanes. Only after the Monza, test shortly after the summer break, one can come up with a reasonable prediction.
Spa Francorchamps: This one is clearly for Ferrari. Already in July Massa and Raikkonen steadily set best times. At fast tracks the Italians clearly have aerodynamic advantages (strange they're not more positive about Ferrari's chances at Monza then... - AFCA)
Fuji: The curvy track should slightly benefit McLaren. Despite the long straights the teams will need to drive with relatively a lot of wing, like in Indianapolis.
Shanghai: The track has similar characteristics as the Nürburgring. Again: the rough surface is a benefit for Ferrari while in the slow corners the McLarens should go faster. Good prospects for an exciting race.
Sao Paulo: Should the fight for the title go to the wire then McLaren would have the better cards. The MP/4-22 simply copes better with the many bumps that are in the circuit.
So the second part of the season offers good and bad tracks for both teams. McLaren is on top in both of the championships so Ferrari should catch up also winning at a McLaren-track. But before the WC/WCC decision a lot of test and race mileage is still to be done. Big technical steps forward and technical malfunctions should obviously also be taken into account.