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#1 H2H

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 07:54


So we had two 1-2 finishes for RBR in a row, with perhaps the best couple of drivers seated in the best car on faster tracks and in colder weather. The H-ring is full of slow corners and usually rather hot. Ferrari, McLaren and Renault seem to have narrowed the gap to the Brawns under the specific circumstances considerably. How will things work out in Hungary?

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#2 aguri

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 09:50

My gut feeling is that button and the two red bulls will be on the podium, closely followed by ferrari and toyota. I expect williams, renault and mclaren to be fighting it out in the mid field, with torro rosso, BMW and F.I. trading slowest laps at the back.

But alot can happen in happen in a few weeks....

Edited by aguri, 13 July 2009 - 09:50.


#3 Yellowmc

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 10:55

I expect the 2 Red Bulls on the podium followed by a Ferrari.

Brawn will do no better than P5.

#4 athlon

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 11:07

I expect the 2 Red Bulls on the podium followed by a Ferrari.

Brawn will do no better than P5.


Poor dreams.


#5 Yellowmc

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 11:17

I think it's reasonable. I feel Red Bull have genuinely gone ahead of Brawn and will be better even at slower tracks. Remember that at Monaco Red Bull introduced their diffusor and it changed the entire car, that weekend was not representative for them.

#6 H0R

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 11:19

It is probably a lot hotter than Silvertone and Nurburg, so I think the Brawns should be much more competetive than in the last races. RBR should be strong again.
The dark horses are Ferrari and McLaren. Difficult to say how much they have improved, but I wouldn't rule them out.
I foresee a bad weekend for Williams and Toyota though, with Renault and Force India somewhere in between. The usual humiliation for BMW and and Tori Rosso.

#7 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 11:43

From Rubens twiiter:

In Hungary it will be hot and we will have a nice aerodinamic upgrade



#8 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:00

what tyres are bridgestone bringing? (and how do they compare to last year's compound?) I expect a stong showing of mclaren, but ferrari will be up there as well, especially with the high temperatures. Toro rosso will get an update on the car so they could improve, although not nearly enough to be anywhere near the front.

#9 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:02

what tyres are bridgestone bringing? (and how do they compare to last year's compound?) I expect a stong showing of mclaren, but ferrari will be up there as well, especially with the high temperatures. Toro rosso will get an update on the car so they could improve, although not nearly enough to be anywhere near the front.

Super soft/Soft I think.

#10 fed up

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:02

what tyres are bridgestone bringing?


Exactly

#11 Gypsy

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:03

It's two weeks until the next race. We can't even talk about the weather yet. Is there a point to this thread?

#12 VicR

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:13

If it's hot then Red Bull and Brawn will switch places. Ferrari will be fighting for the podium. Similar to Monaco. If it's going to be as cold as these last two races it may be very close between Red Bull and Brawn. Track suiting Brawn and weather suiting Red Bull. But both teams will struggle somewhat. That could play in to the hands of Ferrari. It's going to be even tougher to pass KERS cars at the Hungaroring.

#13 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 12:14

It's two weeks until the next race. We can't even talk about the weather yet. Is there a point to this thread?


I like these treads very much, a lot people give their reaction so it must have a point. you're post however doesn't do anyone any good.

anyhow, bridgestone will bring the same compound as last year. ( http://www.f1fanatic...rvative-tyres/)
I can recall people were struggling preserving them last time around, so brawn have the advantage I think.

Edited by Ruud de la Rosa, 13 July 2009 - 12:15.


#14 Alfisti

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 14:40

You're all missing the key ingredient ... KERS. Let's assume RBR and Brawn are the 4 fastest cars, just WHAT do you do in qualifying? Go light and miss the front row and you're at the mercy of McLaren (quickly improving) and the red cars, go heavy and you're almost CERTAIN to miss the front row and almost certain to get stuck behind a KERS car at T1.

RBR in particular should be concerned as both drivers have been MISERABLE off the line in almost every race, they just get swamped.

Earlier in the year everyone wwas screaming 'go light' to beat the KERS cars but the last 3 or 4 races has seen heavier cars in the top 10 gain GOBS of places. Webber, Vettel, Massa and Rosberg have all leap frogged into podiums by being heavy. Look at Vettel in Germany, he was 8th at corner II and finished second by having a lot of gas and decent race pace.

If you're RBR and you think your race pace is faster you go heavy IMHO, just like this past weekend. Worse case you get swamped but at least you pit after most of the KERS cars.

#15 Rambazamba

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 14:45

That will surely be interersting, as we have seen it is no problem for KERS cars to catch 4-5 cars if the straight is long enough - and it is long enough at Hungary too.

#16 Andromeda

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 15:12

I'm very eager to see what the McLaren is capable of pity we didnt get to see that in Germany because of Hamiltons nudge against Webber. That upgrade McLaren has done + the use of KERs has definitely put them into Podium contention I would have to say.

As far as Brawn is concerned I honestly do think the much warmer temperatures in Hungary will help Brawn out alot but that upgrade RBR have done may still provide Brawn with problems I think it will ultimately come down to the package Brawn have for Hungary. If its as good as they hope then I could definitely see another Brawn 1-2 possible.

The 2nd half of the season will definitely favour the Brawn Car better (Barring Belgium and possibly Italy) but its really going to come down to the package Brawn have ready. If RBR dominate Brawn at Hungary its safe to say that Brawn are going to be screwed for the rest of the season. Hungary is definitely going to be the race to watch to determine once and for all where the Brawns stand against the RBR weither they are slower the same or faster than the RBR team..

If I had to pick I would say the Brawn team will be the better team at Hungary but only just.

#17 Muz Bee

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 22:04

I think it's going to be really nip and tuck between Brawn and Red Bull at the next race (and most of the following races). What is more interesting is that there are signs that a couple of the teams (McLaren and Renault) are making big gains and a couple steadily making ground (Ferrari and Williams).

Williams and Nico Rosberg played a different game to their earlier run it light policy and the rewards are there in better overall race pace. While the commentators completely missed it Rosberg made up 9 places on the first lap without it being due to a large number of crash victims. This was despite having 32 laps worth of fuel aboard and his pace at the end of his first stint was similar to Vettel's times. He is the quiet improver in the field and with a good Q3 he will be threatening the tail of the two leading teams IMO.

I think with both McLarens giving feedback on the new package that a track like Hungary should provide opportunity for Hamilton to get among the 5-8 positions provided he doesn't overdo it as he has tended to of late. I'm still unsure that Alonso's late race pace was a sign of better things as they have been terribly up and down, unlike Williams who with Rosberg in European rounds has gone 8,6,5,5,4 after a shaky start.

As Hungary is almost always terribly hot I'm tipping Button for win number 7 after a good go with Vettel. Ferrari tend to be good here so I'll find a top 6 for Massa and no points for Kimi who doesn't seem interested in hard work for little reward.

#18 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 22:10

Poor dreams.


Why? The same result occured at yesterday's race.....

#19 Mandzipop

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 22:20

If Iwas in charge of Ferrari I would fuel the car up. They aren't bad with hot conditions. The KERS will give a couple of places and ride it out. We dont know how good RBR are in hot weather with the new updates and we dont know how good Brawn will be with the new updates in Hungary. All we know is that the RBR is now good on the twisty circuits as well as the high speed circuits.

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#20 noikeee

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 22:41

I am convinced Brawn will be about 350 times better in Hungary if the weather is warm. Ross was saying that his cars were using tyres at 50-60C the past 2 races: that's TERRIBLE. No wonder Button was zig-zagging to warm up tyres during the race, I've never seen anyone do that before.

Everyone's going about Renault, McLaren, Force India, Ferrari, and whoever else suddenly being a lot more competitive, IMO a large part of that is because Brawn has been running seriously handicapped and therefore everyone looks better by comparison.

So, Button.

Edited by paranoik0, 13 July 2009 - 22:42.


#21 Direct Drive

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 23:02

Kind of looks and sounds (heat) like a Brawn track to me. I hope so and I hope they hold the reins in on their recalcitrant No. 2 and get on with winning the driver and constructor championship with the fellow who could do it.

#22 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 13 July 2009 - 23:06

This ciruit is like Monaco so it should suit the Brawn's, I also see McLaren, Ferrari and Williams being strong along with Red Bull.

Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 13 July 2009 - 23:06.


#23 ch103

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 01:12

Alot of things will begin to unfold at the Hungary. The Brawns will be strong as will RBR. It will be interesting to see how the race of unfolds.

As of now everyone state your positions on the Brawn and Red Bull strategies for both drivers.

Here are some of my assumptions. Total distance is 306.68 KM, total fuel liters consumed is 230 liters. The pole position will have a car fueled to go 22 laps, somewhere in the 1.23's. The race will be dry, and hot.

The Brawn car does well when it does not struggle to get heat into the tires whereas when its hot out the Red Bull loses its balance. The hot race favors the Brawn team and the tires ultimately govern my race strategy for both teams.

Button wins pole, 22 laps of fuel on board.

Im not certain where Webber or Vettel ends up but top 5 im certain. One will be fueled for 26 laps the other with 27 laps.

Rubens will get his two stopper this GP and start with 28 laps of fuel to start the race. His pit stops will be spot on but he will go onto finish 6th.

Start, the long straight to turn 1 helps the KERS cars out again and I would not rule out the McLarens in the top 8 so they could get something early on. Race pace is another issue.

Lap 22 Button pits from the lead. Button is on a three stopper. Softer compound first, long second stint (26 laps) on harder compound and final 22 laps on softer compounds. This strategy gets him out front, sets the pace and if he needs to he will have the softer compound for him at the end to seal the deal or attack.

Webber and Vettel continue for 4 and 5 more lacks respectively.

Whomever is either stuck behind traffic or the lesser fueled of the two will come in first and the following lap the other will come in. The first two stops by the RB's will be 26 and 27 laps each on the harder compound tires. The third and final stop will be for 14 laps on the softer compound so if the car falls off, it is only for the shortest race stint. This strategy gives them the entire race to try and leap frog JB, which opens the opportunity to get a gap to hold onto until the finish. Or it allows the to RB's to solidly hold onto the 2 and 3 spots on the podium. There is still a long season even if Button wins this race.

So I see Button winning the pole and race with the Red Bulls 2nd and 3rd. I can also easily see Webber going back to back with Button second and Vettel third.

On race pace alone this is the podium and the way the race will unfold imo.

Rain or a crash at the first turn changes everything though.

Edited by ch103, 14 July 2009 - 01:14.


#24 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 07:17

I think the Hungaroring is going to prove to be the most critical race of the season for the championship, and I don't think I could pick a better circuit. Sure, everyone hates it, but the Hungarian Grand Prix has the rather unique claim to fame that in seven years it has produced seven different winners. Including two first-timers, Jenson Button and Heikki Kovalainen, for whom luck certainly played its part. Statistically, if any race is going to throw a spanner into the works, it is arguably Hungary. Which could be good news for someone who has been lurking about but never quite within striking distance. Like Nico Rosberg.

Anyway, I'm expecting that Brawn will have the advantage for two reasons: firstly, because in twenty-off years, the Hungaroring has only ever produced one wet race, and the winner of that one was Jenson Button. It's usually warm and dry in Budapest. Secondly, if one of the Red Bull drivers is going to launch a serious assault on Button's twenty-point lead, they're going to need to sort themselves out, and soon. Even if he doesn't win, as long as Button keeps scoring points, Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel will not be able to launch their own campaigns. One of them has to prove himself the worthier candidate, and Hungary is the first race where everything is going to count (Valencia being the second; after that, it may be too late to do anything if they haven't sorted themselves out ... ironically, the two 'most boring' circuits on the calendar are going to be the most critical). And since Webber and Vettel have to race each other, they can't rely on the other to run interference with Button; over at Brawn, I expect the order for Barrichello to support JB will come through in the next two or three races.

Whatever the case, I think this is Red Bull's race to lose. It's their championship to lose. Adrian Newey supposedly has another upgrade in the works in time for Singapore, but if Red Bull can't capitalise on Hungary and Valencia in particular, it may be for nothing. Because right now, I think the only thing they can do is buy themselves more time with points-scoring finishes; if Webber or Vettel are going to be World Champion, the season will not be settled until Interlagos or Abu Dhabi. As it stands, Button has all the power here and a podium at the least - both in Hungary and Valencia - could be all he needs to strengthen his campaign enough that points finishes will be all he needs to get him past the point where he cannot be touched.

#25 Buckethead

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 07:22

Sure, everyone hates it, but the Hungarian Grand Prix has the rather unique claim to fame that in seven years it has produced seven different winners. Including two first-timers, Jenson Button and Heikki Kovalainen, for whom luck certainly played its part.


Fernando took his first victory at Hungaroring :cat:

#26 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 07:29

Fernando took his first victory at Hungaroring :cat:

True that. I'd forgotten, since it was in a year when I didn't get to watch many late-night races.

#27 Phucaigh

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 10:34

Toyota have high expectations for Hungary, going by their report on the Nurburgring and the look forward to Hungary.

#28 Atreiu

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:41

The heat and slow corners should play into Brawn's favour, so I guess Button will win and put a halt to Red Bull's progress.

#29 mstar

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:47

i have a funny feeling mclaren will surprise us and go light in qualy ahead of brawn and redbull. I just still think redbull is a quicker car regardless of temperture and tyre issues.

#30 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:07

I just still think redbull is a quicker car regardless of temperture and tyre issues.

But how quick are both teams compared to the rest of the field?

Let's say for argument's sake that Jenson Button will always finish fifth from here on in, and that a Red Bull will win (we're taking into account Vettel and Webber having to race each other here, turn about until one emerges as the stronger of the two). It will take three races for that Red Bull to catch most of Button's twenty-one point lead, and four to surpass him. But that's assuming Button will not score anything, but we're arguing that he's always going to finish fifth. He'll score four points every time; that's sixteen points while Red Bull peg back the distance. At this point, we're about to go to Singapore. The Red Bull is now nine points behind Button (I think), which means another race for them winning to pass him. But he scores four points again, meaning that's he's still three clear of them with three rounds to go.

Of course, that's only a really generalise overview. It assumes that Webber and Vettel alternate between winning and coming second for a round or three until one has a clear margin over the other. The point is that while the Red Bull might be quicker, speed isn't what they need here; you don't get extra points for a greater winning margin. They need results to go their way, or to settle on a championship contender very early with the other driver running interference.

#31 hunnylander

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:07

Introducing the Trophies

Posted Image
Posted ImagePosted Image

:smoking:

#32 Henrytheeigth

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:10

Wow superb! Classy! I'm just wow! Mark win that thanks! I hope it's a great race with Brawn and RB fighting for evey inch, with Mark winning by 30 seconds at least in the end though.

#33 Atreiu

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:12

Sweet.
That looks like a real trophy, much better than those metal Santander sculptures.


Seing how it's hard to overtake and the first corner is quite tight, Red Bull shouldn't rely on any speed advantage and go light for the sake of a 1-2 on the grid. The problem is that at least another 3 or 4 cars will probably do the same.

Toyota might mix it, but I doubt they'll even come close to winning. Just ain't gonna happen.

Edited by Atreiu, 14 July 2009 - 12:15.


#34 femi

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:12

[...]
As Hungary is almost always terribly hot I'm tipping Button for win number 7 after a good go with Vettel. Ferrari tend to be good here so I'll find a top 6 for Massa and no points for Kimi who doesn't seem interested in hard work for little reward.


Interesting point you made about KIMI. KIMI was a better driver at Mclaren than at Ferrari; he was giving his all when Mclaren had dogs of cars. I had always suspected that Ferrari driver management style does not suit KIMI. I feel you need to be an astute politician at Ferrari on top of been a good driver and one cannot describe KIMI as someone remotely interested in politics.
I strongly suspect if he went back to Mclaren, we will again see KIMI of old.

#35 Alfisti

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 14:48

i have a funny feeling mclaren will surprise us and go light in qualy ahead of brawn and redbull. I just still think redbull is a quicker car regardless of temperture and tyre issues.



I'd actually prefer that as it avoids them howling past the RBR guys at the start and reduces the potential for accidents. If McLaren run light we just sit behind them, wait and bugger off on a longer strategy.

#36 klover

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 14:52

As Hungary is almost always terribly hot I'm tipping Button for win number 7 after a good go with Vettel. Ferrari tend to be good here so I'll find a top 6 for Massa and no points for Kimi who doesn't seem interested in hard work for little reward.

So Kimi getting the last point at Silverstone is an indication he was not interested in working hard for such a little reward? What about driving with a failing car until the team called him in, why didn't he drive straight into the pits as soon as he started losing power? I am sorry but your claim seems to be based on fiction rather than facts.

#37 danii

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 14:57

Interesting point you made about KIMI. KIMI was a better driver at Mclaren than at Ferrari; he was giving his all when Mclaren had dogs of cars. I had always suspected that Ferrari driver management style does not suit KIMI. I feel you need to be an astute politician at Ferrari on top of been a good driver and one cannot describe KIMI as someone remotely interested in politics.
I strongly suspect if he went back to Mclaren, we will again see KIMI of old.


Maybe Kimi not adapting his driving style to the Bridgestones? Alonso suffered that in 2007 at Mclaren.

#38 abc

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 15:43

My feeling is, the Vettle train is coming.
I think Red Bull will be unbeatable in Q, then hot race, Red Bulls have mediocre start, Vettel will find himself second to fourth after turn 1 and with a task to preserve tires better than in Monaco. He will slow down by 2 - 2,5 sec. per lap a hold everybody behind at bay. Meanwhile one or two drivers will run into distance and BB will collaps under complains how bad this mickeymouse circuit is.

#39 Atreiu

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 15:49

I'd actually prefer that as it avoids them howling past the RBR guys at the start and reduces the potential for accidents. If McLaren run light we just sit behind them, wait and bugger off on a longer strategy.



There would still be the Ferraris. Massa gained 4 places at the start this last race.
With only one long straight and KERS, McLaren and Ferrari will be true roadblocks if they jump the Branws and Red Bulls.

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#40 Bouncing Pink Ball

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 16:09

Those really are lovely trophies! I understand the why with those Santander thingies, I just like seeing a nice, unique and classy looking set like these.

Oh, and the race? Well, I'm guessing Brawn will find some more speed in the heat – provided it is warm come race day – while the Red Bulls, particularly SV, will have to conserve tires a bit. I don't know if McLaren and Ferrari have improved as much as they seem to have, but if so, they'll be back to threatening consistently for top eight and even podium spots, or at least busy holding off the rest of the field after their mega KERS starts. And then there's Renault; Alonso was very fast at times in Germany, wasn't he? They might be coming good at this point too. Eh...I guess I don't really have much of a prediction at all, do I? :rotfl:



#41 LukeM

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 17:20

We are gonna see Hamilton on the front row for sure. Its gonna be fascinating to see how RBR go back on the hot slow circuits.

#42 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 17:59

I think most teams won't update much after hungary. (except rbr&bgp) So we'll get a clear image of the pecking order. At least if there is a 'normal' race. I'm very curious how much Renault have improved. I think rbr en bgp will alternate wins and the battle for 3rd places will be tight between ferr, mclaren, renault, williams and toyota.

#43 ch103

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 01:27

The story of the race will be tire wear. Im expecting hard and medium compounds at this point.

The race has been won by a driver on a three stopper for I believe the previous two years if not longer.

As Ive stated previously I see Button on Pole and the podium is going to be two Red Bulls and 1 Brawn.



#44 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 01:37

The story of the race will be tire wear. Im expecting hard and medium compounds at this point.

The race has been won by a driver on a three stopper for I believe the previous two years if not longer.

As Ive stated previously I see Button on Pole and the podium is going to be two Red Bulls and 1 Brawn.

I thought Bridgestone were putting out softs and super softs.

#45 Alfisti

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 02:04

I thought Bridgestone were putting out softs and super softs.



Regardless it's now like last year, compunds closer to each other. Great news for Brawn IMHO.

#46 ch103

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 03:10

Regardless it's now like last year, compunds closer to each other. Great news for Brawn IMHO.


This is exactly why I think Brawn will fuel Button with 22 laps and have a go at pole. All that matters is that he is ahead of the Red Bulls, 1st is ideal but not necessary.

He has a flying first stint on the softer of the two, the engineers are able to assess what 22 laps does to the softer compound, and then from there its managing the middle sting to keep ahead of the RB's.

He has a final stop with 22 to go and is on the softer compound to finish.

Its Buttons to lose, imo. Red Bull has to get the other two podium spots.

#47 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 06:52

I thought Bridgestone were putting out softs and super softs.


yes, softs and super softs, same as last year.

#48 One

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 09:00

Mclaren, Renault, Red Bull, and Brawn.

Mclaren and Renault seems to be a dark horse in Hungaroring... They both showed the sign of improvements in German GP. How far do they do and if Lewis do perform at higher level is the point of interests... Fernando did a pretty good job in recollecting some positions.

Besides, Webber's form after this win can be another interesting point to look at.

I am assuming that Brawn GP wil lcontinue to have tough time. Are they doing ANY big development work? They are certainly going back.

#49 Captain Tightpants

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 09:03

I am assuming that Brawn GP wil lcontinue to have tough time. Are they doing ANY big development work? They are certainly going back.

They've said there's the potential to do some if it's called for; they have a provision for it, but I don't think it's much. Hungary will be different to Germany and Britain because of the conditions. Britain and Germany were unusually cool; Hungary has almost always been dry and warm, conditions which suit the Brawns better. They seem to be able to use the ambient temperature to retain heat in the tyres, rather than having to do it thsemves the way Button and Barrichello were by the end of the last race. The Brawns just cannibalise their tyres in the damp and cool.

#50 Oho

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 09:24

yes, softs and super softs, same as last year.


Is that allowed? Unless I am mistaken for the 2009 season the two compounds selected may not be adjacent rather separated by at least one. Well maybe it is not a rule, just a practice which has since been dropped.