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f1 2009 round 13: Italian GP preview


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#1 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 09:57

welcome to the Gran Premio Santander d'Italia preview tread
race start 13 september 2009. 14:00 CEST


Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Italy:
Monza marks a real return to power track territory. The 5.793km circuit in the Old Royal Park is one of the few remaining high speed tracks on the calendar and so requires the lowest downforce arrangement seen all year. Monza’s chicanes and four key corners, however, also demand a balancing aerodynamic efficiency to ensure a smooth transition over the harsh kerbs.

A traditional power track, engines are put through their paces over the weekend as they consistently reach speeds of 340kph and endure a full throttle ratio of 73% per lap. With such high top speeds, and an average lap speed of 250kph, extensive loads are exerted on the brakes during each braking event. Turn one, for example, sees drivers brake so hard into the corner, they experience 5g. Accordingly, brake durability is crucial while a car’s stability under braking is also important at Monza where the track surface is notoriously bumpy. With an approximate 25 second penalty for each pit-stop, the Italian Grand Prix is invariably a one or perhaps two stop race. With several overtaking opportunities over the lap, the final European round will no doubt be an engaging one.
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2009 championship standings
Pos Driver Points
1 Jenson Button 72
2 Rubens Barrichello 56
3 Sebastian Vettel 53
4 Mark Webber 51.5
5 Kimi Räikkönen 34
6 Nico Rosberg 30.5
7 Lewis Hamilton 27
8 Jarno Trulli 22.5
9 Felipe Massa 22
10 Heikki Kovalainen 17
11 Timo Glock 16
12 Fernando Alonso 16
13 Nick Heidfeld 10
14 Giancarlo Fisichella 8
15 Robert Kubica 8
16 Sébastien Buemi 3
17 Sébastien Bourdais 2
18 Adrian Sutil 0
19 Kazuki Nakajima 0
20 Nelsinho Piquet 0
21 Luca Badoer 0
22 Jaime Alguersuari 0
23 Romain Grosjean 0

Pos Constructor Points
1 Brawn/Mercedes 128
2 Red Bull/Renault 104.5
3 Ferrari 56
4 McLaren/Mercedes 44
5 Toyota 38.5
6 Williams/Toyota 30.5
7 BMW Sauber/BMW 18
8 Renault 16
9 Force India/Mercedes 8
10 Toro Rosso/Ferrari

Earlier previews:
Belgian GP preview
European GP preview
Hungarian GP preview
German GP preview
British GP preview
Turkish GP preview


What will the Italian Grand Prix bring us? Another Ferrari victory? will Force India be as strong again? Another though weekend for Jenson? can his competitors score some valuable championship points? please discuss!

BTW I'm trying to introduce a standard start post for preview treads. suggestions are welcome


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#2 Atreiu

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 11:55

Hamilton will win. McLaren has brought extreme, and efficient, aerodynamic packages to Monza for the past years and now they have KERS to help. They should have some isses through Ascari and the Parabolica, but that's what'll make it all the more interesting.

#3 Atreiu

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 11:56

Nice opening post.

I also think Kimi will be very strong. Hamilton and him will fight for the win.

#4 craftverk

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:02

I don't know who will win but Brawn, Ferrari and McLaren will all be strong there.

#5 rodlamas

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:05

It will be a KERS washout. Mclaren and Ferrari will dominate the race.

If any of the teams think they stand a chance, they better take some medicine or perhaps install KERS into their KERS.

My guess for a podium is Hamilton, Raikkonen and Kovalainen on that specific order.

#6 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:24

1 Brawn/Mercedes with no flowing corners and probably some higher temperatures they should perform better than at Spa
2 Red Bull/Renault maybe the fastest car in Belgium, failed to to score as much as they should have. In monza their advantage will be gone.
3 Ferrari very fast on the straights in spa, partly due to their KERS, should perform well despite a lack of development
4 McLaren/Mercedes very slow trough the corners in Spa, should perform well.
5 Toyota bouncing on the kerbs not their best quality, should struggle a bit.
6 Williams/Toyota seem to always be the 3rd or 4th team. Rosberg usually gets it to the front.
7 BMW Sauber/BMW made a lot of pregress, don't know how they will fare on monza
8 Renault maybe not even allowed to race? not a favourite IMO
9 Force India are rumoured to be disadvantaged by their low downforce production. monza should suit them, powerful mercedes engine will help
10 Toro Rosso their pace in spa came from the middle sector, won't be good here even though they were very good last year.

#7 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:24

It will be a KERS washout. Mclaren and Ferrari will dominate the race.

If any of the teams think they stand a chance, they better take some medicine or perhaps install KERS into their KERS.

My guess for a podium is Hamilton, Raikkonen and Kovalainen on that specific order.


will renault reintroduce their kers?

#8 craftverk

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:30

Let's not forget Force India either.

#9 Crazy Ninja

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:38

You would imagine Monza will suit the KERS cars pretty well. Long straights, tight chicanes and Ascari and the Parabolica being the only longish fast corners should see whatever penalty incurred by carrying KERS kept to a minimum. Raikkonen and Hamilton will be up at the front end. Will be interesting if Force India's huge update will work as well at Monza. How will Brawn go? Button's lost form just as Ruben's found his, and Vettel's back scoring after a couple of disastrous races. It's oto hard to call at the minute who'll prove to be the main championship contender to Button.

#10 Redheat57

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 13:53

I'm hoping has Jenson has a good race and pick up some points, surely his luck can't last.

Edited by Redheat57, 31 August 2009 - 13:54.


#11 fnz

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 13:57

Any more info about Renault reinstalling KERS for Monza?

#12 engel

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:00

Ferrari, McLaren and Renault will all run KERS. They will be fast, as I suspect Red Bull will be. I think Brawn will be lower points and wait for Singapore to fight with an advantage, BMW might challenge on low downforce.

#13 mountford

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:00

Any more info about Renault reinstalling KERS for Monza?




http://en.f1-live.co...826135455.shtml

Following this weekend's race in Belgium, Renault is considering re-installing KERS to its Formula One cars for the Italian Grand Prix.

The French team abandoned the energy recovery technology earlier this season, but believe the 80 horsepower boost may be worth the set-up compromises on the long straights of the Autodromo Nazionale di Monza.

"We're always adding new developments," said technical director Bob Bell. "As for KERS, we don't plan to use it in Spa, but we're considering it for Monza as we believe it will provide a real advantage there."

Recently Fernando Alonso said he still held hopes the Renault R29 can reach the podium before the end of the season. Six races remain on the 2009 calendar.

Edited by mountford, 31 August 2009 - 14:03.


#14 frp

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:04

Six races remain on the 2009 calendar.


Five

#15 mountford

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:06

Five


:blush:


#16 engel

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:07

Five


it's a quote from an article posted before spa ;)

#17 Owen

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:11

Let's not forget Force India either.

Yeh, clearly they seem to think they'll be right up there.

#18 frp

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 14:16

it's a quote from an article posted before spa ;)

So it is.

Anyway, five left now.  ;)

#19 VicR

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 16:21

In past years when all cars have been rather similar, in terms of technical innovations, riding the kerbs at the Primera Variante, Variante della Roggia and Variante Ascari have been crucial to good and steady laptimes. A good suspension has been worth more than a powerful engine/bhp. A farcry from the old days prior to the chicanes being installed. That will not change this year either but now we have KERS as a huge factor. Ferrari proved at Spa, even with only 44 laps, that using KERS for 6.6 seconds a lap was a huge help. Monza is 53 laps, meaning the cars using KERS will be able to use it for almost 1 minute longer than at Spa. Spa is a medium-low downforce circuit, Monza is a low downforce circuit. Obviously KERS will be even more valuable at Monza. It's highly possible the help from KERS will offset any advantage teams like Red Bull and Brawn have with their suspension.

It's going to be interesting to watch the sector times because there might be an even bigger difference between the teams in different sectors. It's also important to note that every sector has a chicane. S1 has the first chicane an ends prior to Roggia. S2 starts prior to Roggia and ends prior to Ascari. S3 starts prior to Ascari. The question is, if there are big differences in each sector, who will it benefit? Let's wait for FP.

Edited by VicR, 31 August 2009 - 16:25.


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#20 Odvan

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 16:50

Kerbs usage will be key factor. KERS also but we all saw how quick FI on the straights even without it. Kimi said F60 not good for kerbs, but in Monaco I remember Ferrari did well. Last year in Canada too. And it's home GP. I see Mclaren like favorite, with Ferrari and FI behind.

#21 Madras

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 16:53

I dont think KERS will be such an advantage here because it's flat out for so long, KERS is good for accelerating out of slow corners. Also McLaren's aero is dodgy, I think Red Bull will be fastest. Force India may be up there too. Certainly Red Bull were fastest at Spa they just screwed up qualifying.

Edited by Madras, 31 August 2009 - 16:54.


#22 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 16:56

Kerbs usage will be key factor. KERS also but we all saw how quick FI on the straights even without it. Kimi said F60 not good for kerbs, but in Monaco I remember Ferrari did well. Last year in Canada too. And it's home GP. I see Mclaren like favorite, with Ferrari and FI behind.


toyota doesn't seem very good on kerbs as well. Is Monaco a kerbs intensive circuit? which circuit/sectors give the best picture on the cars kerb capabilities?

#23 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 17:03

I dont think KERS will be such an advantage here because it's flat out for so long, KERS is good for accelerating out of slow corners. Also McLaren's aero is dodgy, I think Red Bull will be fastest. Force India may be up there too. Certainly Red Bull were fastest at Spa they just screwed up qualifying.


did you see Kiri use Kers out of La Souce? he had a higher speed throughout the long full throttle stretch because of it. the longer the straight the more useful Kers is!

#24 Odvan

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 17:07

toyota doesn't seem very good on kerbs as well. Is Monaco a kerbs intensive circuit? which circuit/sectors give the best picture on the cars kerb capabilities?

Toyota had longest wheelbase, that's good for stable braking but not with kerbs.
In Monaco at least two place where pilots use it - everyone can remember warnings during quali and race didn't cut trajectory.

But in Monza cerbs much higher.

#25 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 17:15

Toyota had longest wheelbase, that's good for stable braking but not with kerbs.
In Monaco at least two place where pilots use it - everyone can remember warnings during quali and race didn't cut trajectory.

But in Monza cerbs much higher.


it would be more useful to have a kerb intensive sector on a real circuit. I don't think the Monaco kerbs are the biggest factor in lap time, but it still gives us a guesstimate

#26 Makarias

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 17:36

With Force India showing such strength at Spa I find at least five teams with a definite chance of winning at Monza, and BMW Sauber seems to finally have found some pace now, so the uncertainty and confusion is about as great as it can be. Wonderful!

Let's not forget the Finnish jinx in Italy, which no doubt will rule out Kimi and Heikki from winning. Badoer needs to be replaced at Ferrari, or a home team win will only be possible for Toro Rosso...

#27 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 18:10

Let's not forget the Finnish jinx in Italy, which no doubt will rule out Kimi and Heikki from winning.


does it leave out nico rosberg as well?

#28 mkay

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 18:23

How could Force India be competitive at Spa? Did they have a great medium-low downforce package?

I mean, they have a good engine, for sure. But I don't recall the car to be incredibly efficient aerodynamically. At least, not as much as the Brawn or the Red Bull!?!

Did they introduce new parts at Spa which helped them secure a 2nd place?

#29 Hypnotise

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 18:29

Finnaly a thread that makes sense :) but i think Mac,Ferrari red bull all teams will be competetive at spa

#30 Makarias

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 18:32

does it leave out nico rosberg as well?

I suppose so... I suppose the Williams won't be as competitive as the Ferrari and the McLaren anyway, and he's only a half blood, so I didn't even care to mention him.

#31 VicR

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 19:28

did you see Kiri use Kers out of La Souce? he had a higher speed throughout the long full throttle stretch because of it. the longer the straight the more useful Kers is!


I just wanted to ad that you were right about where KERS would be used at Spa. The only thing that Kimi changed midway through the race was that he started to use it to defend himself through Blanchimont and up until Bus Stop where Fisi was catching him. I just wanted to say that and to be fair.

Where do you think KERS will be used at Monza? Out of the chicanes? Out of Parabolica?

#32 Alonzo

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 19:30

BMW might challenge on low downforce.

Yeah that's a possibility but don't take Spa as a parameter because the cars use MEDIUM downforce there. In Monza they'll use very low downforce.

How could Force India be competitive at Spa? Did they have a great medium-low downforce package?

I mean, they have a good engine, for sure. But I don't recall the car to be incredibly efficient aerodynamically. At least, not as much as the Brawn or the Red Bull!?!

Did they introduce new parts at Spa which helped them secure a 2nd place?

My speculation is that Toyota, Force India and BMW have all bad design rear wings for high downfoce configuration. All teams went to Spa with the same front wing they were using before througout the year, the big change was the "flatter" rear wing, leading me to suppose the rear wing made the difference for these 3 teams.

They might have very efficient front wings but gets screwed with the higher downforce rear wing, when they used a special rear wing for Spa it worked out very well.

Of course this is highly speculative. Is wait to see if their great perfomances repeat in Suzuka.

#33 Odvan

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 19:38

Where do you think KERS will be used at Monza? Out of the chicanes? Out of Parabolica?

After all corners before long straights, like always. At the start it will give massive advantage.

#34 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 20:05

Yeah that's a possibility but don't take Spa as a parameter because the cars use MEDIUM downforce there. In Monza they'll use very low downforce.


My speculation is that Toyota, Force India and BMW have all bad design rear wings for high downfoce configuration. All teams went to Spa with the same front wing they were using before througout the year, the big change was the "flatter" rear wing, leading me to suppose the rear wing made the difference for these 3 teams.

They might have very efficient front wings but gets screwed with the higher downforce rear wing, when they used a special rear wing for Spa it worked out very well.

Of course this is highly speculative. Is wait to see if their great perfomances repeat in Suzuka.


that's my (and others') theory aswell. they normally have insufficient downforce, on low downforce tracks that disadvantage is gone. maybe the knowledge gained during the season how to deal with the tyres on low downforce gave them the edge? (pure speculative)

on the kers usage: I didn't pay that much attention what kimi did in spa, he ended using in blachimont? nothing used out of la source? of only less? The fi looked very strong/stable trough eau rouge, so my guess is kimi needed there as well. we really need some more data. just give us a excell sheel of the onboard graphic data :). what is the longest burst we have seen? (for a timed lap, not a overtaking move)
My guess is they will divide it over the circuit. I'm not sure but maybe they will divide it over exit out of corner 1 and 10, maybe a bit out of 5 to defend or attack.

Edited by Ruud de la Rosa, 31 August 2009 - 20:07.


#35 VicR

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 21:52

Ruud de la Rosa

As I said, you were right where KERS was used most often at Spa. It was at the exit of La Source and on top of the hill at Radillion. I saw Heikki and Luca use about 50-60% of their KERS there in FP. They also showed Kimi during the race use it at the same place. At the start of the race he was much quicker there than Fisi. But midway through the race Fisi started to have a somewhat quicker S1 than Kimi and Kimi had a somewhat quicker S2 than Fisi (the majority of the lasp after the 1st stop). S3 went back and forth for both during the race. Did you notice that?

Edited by VicR, 31 August 2009 - 21:55.


#36 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:10

Ruud de la Rosa

As I said, you were right where KERS was used most often at Spa. It was at the exit of La Source and on top of the hill at Radillion. I saw Heikki and Luca use about 50-60% of their KERS there in FP. They also showed Kimi during the race use it at the same place. At the start of the race he was much quicker there than Fisi. But midway through the race Fisi started to have a somewhat quicker S1 than Kimi and Kimi had a somewhat quicker S2 than Fisi (the majority of the lasp after the 1st stop). S3 went back and forth for both during the race. Did you notice that?


nope didn't watch every minute, I was painting during later stages of the race! :) Kimi used it on top of radillion? only for overtaking and defending or also for laptime?

BTW I use a discussion forum to discuss and share opinions, get the reasoning on the table and get to conclusion or just agree to disagree. not to prove others I'm right :) (but it always feels good to be correct ;) )

#37 Cenotaph

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:33

I've been thinking too that Force India can be a good package in Monza. I'm not convinced that KERS, while certainly a great technology for Monza can make all the difference. To be honest it's very hard to know what to expect. But i will have a chance at Fisichella being up there again, maybe Vettel will win though, maybe Hamilton. Bah, i really don't know what to expect.

#38 TinyJim

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:36

The race will miraculously bring the championship ever closer so we eventually get a 4-way battle for the title.

#39 engel

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:37

The race will miraculously bring the championship ever closer so we eventually get a 4-way battle for the title.



You 're the Bridgestone gave FI/BMW/TOYOTA special tyres conspiracy guy right?

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#40 King_Alonso786

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:40

Renault have a great chance in Monza for a podium. They are gong to use KERS at the circuit and the car is quite good in race pace. I predict a Red Bull 1 2 though, Vettel for the win and Webber just behind

#41 rodlamas

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:42

Renault have a great chance in Monza for a podium. They are gong to use KERS at the circuit and the car is quite good in race pace. I predict a Red Bull 1 2 though, Vettel for the win and Webber just behind


BS level up to their maximum ever figures!

Edited by rodlamas, 31 August 2009 - 22:43.


#42 TinyJim

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 22:48

You 're the Bridgestone gave FI/BMW/TOYOTA special tyres conspiracy guy right?


:) mate just sayin' like Spa was such a beneficial weekend for so many teams and the championship. With the Indian GP in jeopardy and FI doing so well, and then BMW doing so well and in need of a buyer, and then Toyota doing well when the bosses in Tokyo might not sign the 2010 budget. All pretty much out of no where.

Comparing Silverstone and Spa (both similar aero dependant tracks ) a net gain of 1 minute 15 seconds for Force India. That doesn't make you think?

And then the championship leader having another dodgy race while RBR/Rubens nibble away at his lead which means we could have a 4-way battle at Abu Dhabi.

No one find it odd how well McLaren used their tyres at Hungary, while Button went to pot with tyres? It's always tyres tyres tyres

I am not suggesting their is a conspiracy. I am not like one of these nut jobs that would suggest the FIA should investigate Renault for last years Singapore GP... that's just silly because the FIA wouldn't d..... oh wait a sec ;)

#43 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:01

Comparing Silverstone and Spa (both similar aero dependant tracks ) a net gain of 1 minute 15 seconds for Force India. That doesn't make you think?


not really similar, silverstone requires more downforce. Otherwise you're theory is flawless.;)

where exactly do you predict the renaults will finish in monza? I wonder if their KERS is any good or if it will just mess up their balance.


#44 Desdirodeabike

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:03

As this season progresses you understand that you cant even judge the result based on the previous race. But judging from the low-medium downforce circuit of Spa, the ultra-low DF Monza circuit should make it possible to at least have some idea of pace. I only took the current front runners into consideration.

FI: Judging from the low-medium downforce circuit of Spa, then the Force India could be very strong again. The lower downforce package made the car a rocket for some reason. Last year a Toro Rosso won, so why not :D As long as they can get a setup to attack the kerbs. But points is realistic.

McL: Judging from their performance at Spa, I think they may struggle again. Their lower downforce package at Spa brought them back to where they were before Hungary. It didnt work as well as I believe Heikki said in an interview. They will get points but a win is doubtful.

SF: As mentioned before, Kimi said the F60 is not a kerbs happy car. But like McLaren they may be able to nullify that disadvantage with KERS out of the chicanes. So definately points but no win in the cards.

BGP: I predict a return to form from Button and the Brawn car. The almost certain warm weather will give them a boost when it comes to their tire issues. Get the car set up right for those kerbs and either Button or Rubens wins it this time. My money is on Button.

RB: Close behind the Brawns. Another podium for Vettel is my guess. Maybe even a win if something happens to the Brawns. However, Monza is an enginekiller circuit. We might see another Renault engine go bye-bye.

Edited by Desdirodeabike, 31 August 2009 - 23:03.


#45 TinyJim

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:06

Button has to big a points advantage for him to be fast at the Monza weekend. Last two races he'll conveniently pick up the pace.

Edited by TinyJim, 31 August 2009 - 23:09.


#46 Ruud de la Rosa

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:12

RB: Close behind the Brawns. Another podium for Vettel is my guess. Maybe even a win if something happens to the Brawns. However, Monza is an enginekiller circuit. We might see another Renault engine go bye-bye.


they are planning to install new ones so it should be ok.

#47 engel

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:20

they are planning to install new ones so it should be ok.


I think Webber used a fresh engine in Spa, bringing both redbulls up to 6 engines used this season.

#48 PNSD

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:43

Long range forecasts for Monza so far extend only to the Wednesday. Generally over that week the conditions look to be improving, with highs of mid 20's and lows of high teens, so 17-19. As for track temperature, should be in the low to mid 30's. Just right.


#49 VicR

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 23:49

nope didn't watch every minute, I was painting during later stages of the race! :) Kimi used it on top of radillion? only for overtaking and defending or also for laptime?


He only used it twice for overtaking for position. Once on Kubica on the first lap and then on Fisi after the SC restart. I'm not sure about the rest of your question. But he did mention he started to use KERS to defend in the 2nd half of the race out of Stavelot, at Blanchimont and up to Bus Stop. Because that's where Fisi was catching him.

#50 rodlamas

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Posted 01 September 2009 - 01:55

There's one thing people are forgetting to consider: cars will be running on a DF level that they have never done this season.

And all the considerations about how the cars perform aerodynamically can barely be used as a parameter for Monza as the wings are totally different and give totally different lift and drag figures.

So if RBR is very fast at high speed corners at Barcelona or Turkey or at Copse, it doesn't mean at all that they will do Parabolica faster than the other teams because it's a totally different car (aero pack).

What can be taken from other races? Riding curb capability, engine power and the KERS factor.

Aero performance we will only get to know it on Friday.