tkulla, on Jan 21 2011, 13:31, said:
Not really what I'm getting at though. Some drivers primary strength is adaptability. They can get in anything and drive it fast. A great skill, but it becomes less valuable the better the car is. A good example of someone that exceled in lesser machinery is Fisichella. Fisi managed to pull out great races here and there when in midfield cars, and dominated his teammates in such cars. But when he had his chance in the class of the field he was nowhere (yes, he had Alonso as his teammate - but note that Fernando is a guy that knows exactly what he wants from a car).
Now before the screaming starts I'm not comparing Lewis to Fisi. Lewis has proven he can win a championship and can drive a good car fast. But the very adaptability that is such an asset will still be diminished the better the car gets. And Button's narrow window becomes an asset, as he knows exactly how he wants the car and with a great car it won't be difficult for him to fine tune it.
A great example of this is Schumacher. A guy with great skill but with a very specific needs from the car. When he had the car to meet those needs he was untouchable. Very quick drivers like Irvine and Rubens couldn't get near him. Last year the car couldn't meet those needs so he totally lost that advantage.
Now back to our guys. Jenson knows exactly what he wants. But Lewis could very well run into the problem of not really knowing what works for him best. He can drive it fast no matter how you set it up (within reason, of course) so he and the engineers have much less to go on when it comes to direction. This is where Button could get a leg up on Hamilton.
If Jenson finds the zone, Lewis could surely copy his setup if he wanted to, but this isn't likely to work either. As good as he is at driving using various styles, he's not going to out-smooth Button.
That said, this all requires a very specific set of circumstances, and even if it happens exactly as I'm suggesting that doesn't mean that will be a lot in it. Lewis is so strong in Q that he can still take the fight to Jenson, and he will have his tracks like Canada where he just finds speed others don't seem to find.
I hope McLaren builds the rocketship we're all hoping for and we'll find out if my hypothesis holds water. I also wants to see how Hamilton reacts to being beaten on speed (instead of by guile). He's like the undefeated boxer that has never been knocked down - you don't really know how he'll react to it until it happens (and sooner or later it always does).
This theory is interesting, but it assumes that both drivers are equally as talented, just that 1 is more adaptable.
It's basically saying that given an equally comfortable car Jenson will do better because of what? he has better reaction, feel, fearlessness?
The theory is only valid if Jenson is as fundamentally as fast as Hamilton. I am of the opinion Hamilton is like Usain Bolt, if you know who that is, he's just gifted physically or mentally (whatever it takes to be an ace driver) and he simply cannot be equaled by Jenson Button who is a long way off in talent and outright pace.
Usain Bolt has no equal, and can only be beaten by 2 other men if he is not as his best on certain day; Asafa Powell, previous record holder and Tyson Gay the fastest American off all time.
These 3 are analogous to Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso. Button does not fall in the same talent pool, and i find it hard to visualize him being faster than Hamilton after 10 years of being mediocre, even relative to his teammates. He never showed that raw talent.
The flaws in the theory are that it doesn't take into account the underlying neurological differences or physiological differences that makes Hamilton faster. I don't know what they are, but they almost guarantee that Lewis will have an advantage from the get go if place in any machinery. These factors are what constitutes his talent.
His adaptability is not his main strength, so it wont diminish his relative speed. As i said fundamentals such as muscle reaction, feel, hand eye coordination, fear/bravery, neurology are responsible. Button cannot improve on that now, his talents are all he has, and they may not be equal to Hamilton's. He's 31 years of age as well and that has some effect.
You can't hold Hamilton at one level and graduate Jenson. Any thing that benefits Button 100% may only Benefit Lewis 80%, but it may be enough of a benefit for Lewis to still have the edge.
For illustration purposes; if talent can be expressed units , Lewis has 100 basic talent units and Jenson has 80, ( assume God gave them these at birth)
Also, if the driver's performance is a culmination of the car's suitability to the driver, expressed as a % , and his basic talent units.
a car 100% to Jenson's liking will set him at his full potential of 80 + 80*100% = 160 performance units.
While Lewis may suffer a little and get 100 + 100*80% = 180 performance units , not his full potential but enough to edge Button.
Keep in mind this is a disadvantage for Hamilton. The synergy of talent and machinery is not his full potential, but his fundamental talent ensures that whatever car they are both put in, Lewis will have the edge so long as the car is acceptable for him. It's only until a car has an extremely negative impact on Lewis' driving that Button stands a chance of beating him. Using the same hypothetical example that number would be 60% suitability to Button's 100% , and Mclaren simply wont build such a car.