73 replies to this topic

[Grayson]

I was looking through some F1 stats the other day (it’s the only way I can get through the off season!) and was reminded that it’s been rather a long time since we last had a maiden Grand Prix winner. It seems remarkable to me that the last two new winners in F1 were Vettel and Webber – the duo who have just won back to back Drivers' and Constructors' Championships!

This means that there have been no maiden F1 winners for two full seasons. To put this into historical context, I don’t think that the sport has ever gone three seasons without a new winner (though I’d be interested if those with a better knowledge of early F1 than me can correct me). If Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari produce cars which are quick and reliable, we could see it go three seasons for the first time...

So that’s the subject of this poll – who will be the 103rd* Grand Prix winner? And when will they manage their first win?



(*Assuming you count Indy 500 winners from the early days of the WDC and that you don't count pre-Championship and non-Championship races)

[HaydenFan]

Nico will never win a Grand Prix. He has the stuff, but just won't do it.

It will be Perez in 2014 when Ferrari replaces Massa (or Alonso).

[Morbus]

Nico will never win a Grand Prix. He has the stuff, but just won't do it.

I like your confidence.

Though I think it's Nico who will be the 103th.

[slideways]

Whoever replaces Webber and/or Massa in 2013.

I don't see Mercedes or Renault scoring a win before 2014 unless something very strange happens.

[Brandz07]

Hoping for a freak win for Paul Di Resta

[spacekid]

I predict that the next new GP winner will be called Nico.

[Ross Stonefeld]

If it's GP winner you can't include Indy. If it's F1 winner, you can.

[TURU]

Jean-Eric Vergne driving a Red Bull in 2013.

[iotar]

Grosjean! Although I'm starting to dislike his constant half-smile/joking.

[Iseriouslyhadenough]

Unless there is a totally crazy GP in 2012, the only chance I could see anyone "fresh" winning a GP is that any of the good teams have to replace a driver for a single/several races due to an accident/sickness of one of their regular drivers. As RB is expected to be the #1 again, that makes Buemi having the biggest chance of winning a GP in 2012, as crazy as it looks.

[TeamSideways]

narain karthekyan in 2013

[flyer121]

Grosjean! Although I'm starting to dislike his constant half-smile/joking.

Just realised that us fans are a chhosy bunch

BTW - I agree about the smile ... and he may win a race but its only likely if Kimi DNFs

Edited by flyer121, 23 February 2012 - 14:13.

[KavB]

Nico Rosberg, but I think that will happen in 2013. If Massa is replaced by someone inexperienced then I can see them taking their maiden win in 2013.

[cheapracer]

I believe Force India is the dark horse cow this year so The Hulk (box ticked) or Needs a Resta

[davegp3]

I would like to see Rosberg Jr. to score first win in 2012. I think he deserves it for those strong performances in last couple of years. Hopefully this year's Merc will have the speed and reliability.

[Alfisti]

I believe Force India is the dark horse cow this year so The Hulk (box ticked) or Needs a Resta

I say the opposite, they are going to struggle.

[Santosdf]

I would like to be Perez the next winner, but voted Rosberg , he has the speed , experience and most important the car to be the next winner in 2012 .

[cheapracer]

I say the opposite, they are going to struggle.

See you on the 19th then ...

[BenettonB192]

Nico maybe. Tho he could be the next Heidfeld.

[Atreiu]

GrowJohn in 2013, I guess.

[jrg19]

Ricciardo in 2013, driving the RedBull after beating JEV and being moved up.

[sopa]

I think no-one in 2012, it would need a catastrophic race for that to happen. I don't know, how good is Mercedes, but I doubt they are capable of really matching Red Bull and McLaren at this stage. So for Rosberg to win it would take all four cars from those teams to retire. Doubtful. Lotus looked impressive at Jerez, but they have thrown everything into the bin with the chassis issue, so this counts out Grosjean. Toro Rosso is rated highly based on tests, so maybe Vergne or Ricciardo can repeat a Vettel 08 in a wet race?

2013 or more significantly 2014 with new regs is much more likely. Unless Schumi has really got a new 2-y deal, Hulk or di Resta replaces him and if Merc finally really improves, they have two winless drivers having a shot. But the most likely new winner is the one, who gets the second Red Bull seat. So Vergne or Ricciardo?

[Ross Stonefeld]

You don't need to dominate to win or having a super competitive car. See Button's first win.

[Grayson]

Unless there is a totally crazy GP in 2012, the only chance I could see anyone "fresh" winning a GP is that any of the good teams have to replace a driver for a single/several races due to an accident/sickness of one of their regular drivers. As RB is expected to be the #1 again, that makes Buemi having the biggest chance of winning a GP in 2012, as crazy as it looks.

I wonder whether they'll really give the car to Buemi if Webber or Vettel have to sit out a few races... I wonder whether it depends on how well Ricciardo and Vergne are doing or whether they've already got an agreement in place with Buemi that he'll definitely get to take over!

[Lights]

Grosjean in the Lotus? That would need some craziness this year. Possible.

[fieraku]

I'd give Nico the best chance,but you never know with the right circumstances and a bit of luck FI or BigJohn/Lotus can pull it off.

[metz]

For a LONG SHOT I'll pick Heidfeld in Australia.

For a likely shot it's a Force India driver this year.

[Baddoer]

No.

[alfa1]

...that makes Buemi having the biggest chance of winning a GP in 2012, as crazy as it looks.

It would also depend on how much of a team player he is.
I'm reminded of Mika Salo's only realistic chance of winning a GP, subbing for a broken legged Schumacher, was leading the 1999 German Grand Prix when he moved over to let Eddie Irvine through to take the win instead, in order to help Irvine's Driver Championship chances.

He shoulda just went for it and damn the consequences.
Would Buemi do the same?

[OSX]

Nico Hulkenberg in 2012.

[Fastcake]

Rosberg is the most likely chance, maybe with a complete oddball race (that we are overdue!) he could do it this year, as I imagine the Mercedes is at least going to be in a strong enough position behind the front. Otherwise it's harder to guess. It's possible Lotus could be in a similar position, but whether Grosjean could get a win instead of Raikkonen is unknown.

We know it's likely both Red Bull and Ferrari will have empty seats at the end of the year, which has the best chance of a new winner, but who they pick is unknown. There's no guarantee a Red Bull rookie will get that seat, and there are other current race winners outside the top; Raikkonen, Kovalainen and the increasingly small chance of Kubica.

[Victor]

I predict that the next new GP winner will be called Nico.

Just another clue: He will be German.

[metz]

Just another clue: He will be German.

And a "berg" in his name.

[Schumacher7]

See you on the 19th then ...

Indeed, Force India will be the sixth best team behind RB, McLaren, Ferrari, MercGP and Lotus (no particular order there).

[King Six]

I can't see anyone but Red Bull, McLaren or occasionally Ferrari winning a race until the new 2014 rules shake things up, barring some extreme circumstances.

So I have no idea, we'll see when Webber is replaced and what happens to Massa. Whoever replaces them I guess. I wouldn't say it's as simple as Ricciardo and Perez but everyone here seems to be 100% on that idea. :/

[freya]

Voted rosberg. But probably the guy who replaces webber eventually.

[Sanman59]

Hulkenberg - Spa 2012

[Atreiu]

You guys need to have more faith. A little rain at Montreal or Monaco could throw everything upside down.

[Disgrace]

It won't be until the next big rule change when the order is shuffled up a bit.

[Atreiu]

Hulkenberg - Spa 2012

Kimi will win Spa.

[Dispenser89]

Rosberg in China this year.

[anbeck]

Hoping for a freak win for Paul Di Resta

I think the time is ripe for a freak win! Like Fisichella, Panis or Herbert.... I don't even remember the last freak win. Must be Vettel (although arguably this was a bit more on merit than those freak wins, where 90% of the grid don't make it to the end - but this is another discussion) in Monza. And Fisichella before him? Ah no, there was Button as well in between them.

Panis 1996
Herbert 1999
Fisichella 2003
Button 2006
Vettel 2008

So if Vettel 2008 was the last freak victory, statistically we can hope for one more

But nowadays I is so improbable that all top 6 drivers don't finish the race, that I don't expect a freak win. And I don't expect a Mercedes win either, so Rosberg will not be the next one.

It is hard to say, but I gambled a bit and voted for Hulkenberg in 2014, because I think there might be a little chance that he replaces Massa at Ferrari with Kubica not returning. And I am convinced that Ferrari will be a better place to be if you want to win a race than Mercedes. If Webbo is replaced next year, there might be a chance that his replacement will be the 103rd winner, but then again he would have to beat Vettel first - with Webber only having one last-grasp victory last year, I could easily imagine a new team mate being second to Vettel all season long.

[wepmob2000]

We're overdue a crazy race, although they seem less and less likely with the huge jump in car reliability over the last few years, also the propensity to send forth the safety car if someone even spits on the track.

Nonetheless, my prediction would be Nico Rosberg, maybe at a crazy Canadian GP this year, or failing that maybe a crazy Hungarian GP.... both races seem to throw up some unusual results. I also predict the 103rd race winner will not emerge at the Spanish GP........

[goldenboy]

I believe Force India is the dark horse cow this year so The Hulk (box ticked) or Needs a Resta

thats what I think. I'm not really a fan of the hulk but have a feeling out of all on that list he is the most likely to do a shock win like vettel in a torro rosso.

[argiriano]

It can be any driver in unusual circumstances, but I think both Nicos, Paul di Resta and Grosjean have the qualities more than the rest.

[Gfhuus]

We're overdue a crazy race, although they seem less and less likely with the huge jump in car reliability over the last few years, also the propensity to send forth the safety car if someone even spits on the track.

This, plus the fact that DRS has made faster car overtaking a slower one a breeze. Unless the top cars are wiped out in accidents, I doubt any other race except Monaco could provide a real surprise winner.

I really hope Rosberg finally gets his first win this year though

[Grayson]

We're overdue a crazy race, although they seem less and less likely with the huge jump in car reliability over the last few years, also the propensity to send forth the safety car if someone even spits on the track.

I think that this is exactly why we're having such a long barren period at the moment. Even when there were just 10 or 12 GPs in a year, the lack of reliability meant that a solid driver in an average car could have his day in the sun.

[UPRC]

I'm crossing my fingers that Nico (Rosberg) will sneak one in this year.

[montoyasminion]

I think everyone is really hoping Nico will get a win this year.

[noikeee]

We've been doing this poll since 2006 when Nico arrived at the scene, every time a new driver won a GP. And he's always been a big favorite (along with Heidfeld, but Heidfeld's dropped his performance dramatically the past 2 seasons, and is at a much later stage of his career). It's quite amazing that he hasn't pulled it off yet, how many would have thought he'd still be with 0 wins to his name after 6 seasons in F1? He looked so promising back then - and has indeed developed into an above-average driver, just not a top one nor been given a proper car.

I'd say Nico's still the best bet, being the lead driver of a team with a large budget that had the 4th best car last season. All it takes is for Merc to improve a little and for a slightly weird race to happen. I'm voting for Nico, 2nd half of the season.

However there's a second obvious option which is pretty much as likely - Vergne or Ricciardo moving to Red Bull in 2013 and winning one. Outside bets: Lotus being as competitive or better than they seemed at Jerez and Grosjean pulling one off (but I can't see it); Paul or Hulk moving from Force India to a top seat next season, maybe Ferrari, and getting it. Any other option seems wildly remote to me.