80 replies to this topic

[Owen]

it is going to be hard for any team or driver to catch Vettel and Red Bull for the remainder of the season, as these tyres certainly will not constrict them and they will be able to get the most from the car at every round from now on. It comes down to whether any other team wants to allocate the money and valuable wind tunnel time away from their 2014 development work to have a crack at them this season.

http://www.jamesalle...ng-driver-test/

This is an interesting point; will any team spend - serious - money to develop their way forward in 2013, given the state of the championship?
Or will the championship effectively be handed to RBR on a plate, while others divert all resources to 2014?

Sorry for the rather depressing prognosis BTW.

[Lights]

No.

[Kelateboy]

They have had their chances in the 1st 5 races. Now RBR and Vettel are going to pull away slowly but surely....

[Sakae]

For several years now RBR seems to have slower starts in first few races, but then their rate of improvement is usually parallel or exceeded only by McLaren; at least that's an impression I have (and it's too hot to get involved in some in-depth stat analysis).

[rmac923]

The only team I see putting a continued emphasis on 2013 is Force India. Maintaining 5th in the WCC would be a huge accomplishment for them.

No one's catching Red Bull in the WCC. Vettel needs more DNF's in order to be caught.

[Szoelloe]

The only team I see putting a continued emphasis on 2013 is Force India. Maintaining 5th in the WCC would be a huge accomplishment for them.

No one's catching Red Bull in the WCC. Vettel needs more DNF's in order to be caught.

No

[BoschKurve]

Could Vettel be caught?

Sure.

Will he?

Unlikely as it'd take a tremendous string of bad luck to prevent him from winning the title.

For the first half he's been easily the best driver out there, and I'd rather see him win since everyone else seems relatively apathetic.

[eronrules]

i'll bet many people have already asked this in 2004 about Ferrari, 1991 about mclaren and 1997 about williams F1.


this things happen in F1, when a team is on a winning role, it's very difficult to stop them, until something gives. it may be reg change, driver change, engineering structure change, engine change whatever. also F1 is and always has been dominated by higher funded teams, the more you spend, the more you gain. RBR did that and still doing it, while Merc has caught up interms of spending and we can see the fruits it's bearing.

thus, i see no reason why other teams won't step up to the challenge in 2014, may be it's ferrari's turn, maybe mercs. these 2 are the only best shots IMO and ATM, cause Mclaren is in shambles and they'll switch engine partners anyway in 2015. the only other teams is LotusF1. thus in terms of potential to replace RBR


1.Mercedes - all those euros and TD's should pay off, also merc's engine can be a deciding factor.

2.Ferrari - i don't see Ferrari catching up to RBR interms of Aero-superiority, however again, engine can be a factor

3.LotusF1 - these guys will be there, they always make good baseline car, though they'll need a good driver to deliver if KR leaves.

4.Mclaren - you can't count them out, if they can sort there aero/car out, they'll be a force.

although, i don't see why we need to be all doom and gloom, RBR is doing a bang up job, admirable and professional. what it shows is that other teams are not doing as good a job as they should. we should give RBR credit to break the boring Ferrari-Mclaren domination. it's now there job to catch up to RBR standard.

[eronrules]

http://www.jamesalle...ng-driver-test/

This is an interesting point; will any team spend - serious - money to develop their way forward in 2013, given the state of the championship?
Or will the championship effectively be handed to RBR on a plate, while others divert all resources to 2014?

Sorry for the rather depressing prognosis BTW.

BTW, does James allen thinks RBR aren't spending money on their 2014 car??? since 2009, RBR has had a head start on other teams in terms of Aero power, cause they have a baseline good aero-efficient car. unless the 2014 renault is 'really bad', i don't see the status quo change. other teams are simply 'two steps' behind AN and the RBR design team, no matter how much they allocate on 2014 (only MERC and Ferrari are on similar spending level on RBR anyway).

[SpaMaster]

I don't think allocating resources from 2014 to 2013 is going to be the one that makes difference. I don't think it is a clear case of Red Bull running away. If they are to be caught, they would be caught irrespective of 2014 allocation. Because if Ferrari or Lotus catch Red Bull by allocating resource from 2014, Red Bull would be forced to do the same. They all would egg each other on to shift focus from 2014. The only beneficiary from all this could be McLaren. But not being in the previous year's championship fight is no guarantee to 2015 title. So, 2014 would have nothing to do with the challenge on Red Bull. I expect at least one of the other two contenders to reel in on Red Bull. Remember in spite of being termed as having the best car in the past three years, the championship has gone to the last race two of those times and Vetel was trailing in the championship at some point in both those races. So let's wait and see.

Edited by SpaMaster, 23 July 2013 - 14:07.

[apoka]

If tyres are more durable now, then Merc (Rosberg or Hamilton) could challenge Vettel/RB, but probably they require some bad luck from Vettel as well.

[eronrules]

I don't think allocating resources from 2014 to 2013 is going to be the one that makes difference. I don't think it is a clear case of Red Bull running away. If they are to be caught, they would be caught irrespective of 2014 allocation. Because if Ferrari or Lotus catch Red Bull by allocating resource from 2014, Red Bull would be forced to do the same. They all would egg each other on to shift focus from 2014. The only beneficiary from all this could be McLaren. But not being in the previous year's championship fight is no guarantee to 2015 title. So, 2014 would have nothing to do with the challenge on Red Bull. I expect at least one of the other two contenders to reel in on Red Bull. Remember in spite of being termed as having the best car in the past three years, the championship has gone to the last race two of those times and Vetel was trailing in the championship at some point in both those races. So let's wait and see.

people seem to only see the points table and say 'Gee wee, RBR and vettel are killing F1'. they shouldv'e seen the real boring races during ferrari domination era.

The one thing working in RBR and in vettels favor is the no. of teams that can win these last 2 seasons. in the past, only Ferrari and mclaren (and Williams maybe) could win races. but these days, 5 teams are in the hunt for podiums/wins. so if one teams has slight advantage and consitant in getting points (only slight), then they can score one place up on the other teams who'll take podiums/points off of each other. that is why we see vettel gather such a lead, not because RBR is miles ahead, but the other teams aren't consistant in getting podiums/points finishes.

KR and FA are sharing the points between them and allowing SV to get away slightly. also last couple of races LH and NR are taking points away from FA and KR too. in a way, MGP is doing a favor to RBR to maintain a safe gap to LRGP and SF.

Edited by eronrules, 23 July 2013 - 14:20.

[Kvothe]

KR and FA are sharing the points between them and allowing SV to get away slightly. also last couple of races LH and NR are taking points away from FA and KR too. in a way, MGP is doing a favor to RBR to maintain a safe gap to LRGP and SF.[/b]

No LRGP and SF just aren't doing a good enough job.

[V3TT3L]

I would split car development in 2013 based on its utility for 2014

AGAINST: developments that can’t be carried over to 2014.
Since there is an intro of turbo engines and anciliary components, the engine cover and therefore rear aero flow will change considerably.
Also the sidepods will change since the exhaust exit will be place at the back to the car, close to the gearbox.
Nose height will be changed by the force of new rules. Instead of high noses and vanity panels, F1 will be more humble with lower noses.

PRO: developments that can be carried over to 2014.
Mostly mechanical changes [suspension] can be used for the next year.
Also some experiments over air flow towards the back of the car, like ducts / splitters.

Edited by V3TT3L, 23 July 2013 - 14:32.

[rmac923]

No

Please elaborate.

[eronrules]

No LRGP and SF just aren't doing a good enough job.

well, wihtout MGP's threat, the only other teams capable of podium finishes are LRGP and SF. take last race for example, if KR wasn't stuck behind LH, he'd have had a nice shot at first place. but you're point is valid too.

[RayInTorontoCanada]

No.

Why?

Because:

- The RB9 is solid;

- Vettel usually extracts the maximum in Q3 and then the race and rarely makes race-ending mistakes;

- Ferrari/Alonso don't/can't qualify high enough. This means they can't unlock the F138's race pace because they have Webber, the Mercedes pair and the Lotus pair to sort out;

- Lotus don't have the resources and nor do they have James Allison to help Kimi sustain a good enough fight. So, eventhough they may win soon, they won't win often and, also, they'll prevent Alonso from making big gains.

- Mercedes still cook up their tyres in the heat...and the YDT ban won't have helped;

- Webber is too far behind in the Championship

So...No!

And, it wouldn't surprise me if Vettel locks up the title before they get to Abu Dhabi or at Abu Dhabi.

Edited by RayInTorontoCanada, 23 July 2013 - 15:34.

[Atreiu]

I think most teams should already be working for 2014.
Ferrari and Lotus perhaps have another 2 or 3 GPs to make serious gains or switch focus. Mercedes can continue on their never ending task of knowing what to do with the tyres.

[Szoelloe]

Please elaborate.

No

[Sakae]

No

We aren't in a good mood lately, are we?

[alframsey]

This season I am, somewhat naively, still holding out that Merc can challenge the RBR of Vettel. I'm not sure why but I just think they will be better on the tyres from now on. Come 2014 I see no reason why Merc, McLaren and Ferrari cant't be there with them or indeed ahead of them, new regs and new engines will throw it up in the air.

[Sakae]

Imagine how ever engineer outside of RBR must feel, when day-in-day-out they are exposed to this little mantra - we don't have Newey on our team. I wonder how many golf clubs Newey gets every Christmas under the tree with club membership in Tasmania.

[Nonesuch]

Will Ferrari and Mercedes invest in this year's car, still? Sure.

Will it matter? I don't think so.

[Szoelloe]

We aren't in a good mood lately, are we?

It's 34°C, lopsided headache from aircon. Not the best, I admit.

[undersquare]

Mercedes can't afford to go into 2014 STILL not knowing how to manage their tyres. They have Paddy and they've said he's working on this year's car, so surely they'll resource him enough to develop the car. They have to.

[SgtPepperoni]

Hard to envisage anyone challenging them on a consistent basis. Vettel is the best driver, Horner the best team boss, and Newey the best designer. Factor in Red Bull's financial clout, and it becomes clear that anyone wanting to redirect the spiotlight has a massive task in front of them. That Helmut Marko geezer is probably where they should concentrate their efforts. He seems like the weak link on a very strong chain.

[Sakae]

Hard to envisage anyone challenging them on a consistent basis. Vettel is the best driver, Horner the best team boss, and Newey the best designer. Factor in Red Bull's financial clout, and it becomes clear that anyone wanting to redirect the spiotlight has a massive task in front of them. That Helmut Marko geezer is probably where they should concentrate their efforts. He seems like the weak link on a very strong chain.

...how so?

[Der Pate]

People compare the lead of Vettel in the WC to the lead of Alonso last year. But they forget, that Alonso was leading in a clearly slower car. This year we have the leader in the WC in the clearly fastest car. Therefore I don´t think, Vettel and Red Bull can be caught in the rest of the races...

[MP422]

People compare the lead of Vettel in the WC to the lead of Alonso last year. But they forget, that Alonso was leading in a clearly slower car. This year we have the leader in the WC in the clearly fastest car. Therefore I don´t think, Vettel and Red Bull can be caught in the rest of the races...

The redbull isn't the fastest car.... Lol it's all Vettel... Look at webber....

[st99]

The Red Bull is not the fastest car but it's the most complete, it goes well in almost all conditions, whereas its rivals only go well if the track is cold or if it's hot. Moreover, Vettel is the one of the leading drivers that has done a better job over the season. If both car and driver continue like this, I don't think there's much to do for the WDC.
On the other hand, if Merc finally solves their tyres problems, I can see them battling for the WCC.

[Juggles]

No. Based on the evidence we have at the moment any other answer is just blind hope.

Vettel is in the best car and is driving like a three time world champion. He is leading second placed Alonso by 34 points which is a bigger gap than the one between second and fifth (Alonso to Webber). Hamilton and Rosberg, the only drivers who can regularly start ahead of him on the grid, are already more than two race wins behind; if Hamilton wins the next four races and Vettel finishes fifth in all of them (much lower than his average this season) then Hamilton will be two points ahead of Vettel...

The tyres are now far less likely to throw up a weekend of Ferrari or Lotus race domination.

With every race that Vettel stretches his lead the other teams will feel more and more conflicted by thoughts of 2014 and breaking this uni-digit chokehold the Vettel-Red Bull partnership has on F1 at the moment.

Only Maldonado and Grosjean have the ability to disrupt the space-time continuum, but even they seem to have calmed down a bit.

Sorry to be pessimistic (realistic?) guys, but it's not going to happen.

[sopa]

No.

Maybe a closer question is if Raikkonen can take the fight to Alonso for second in the championship. He could, but Lotus' history of keeping up with car development is iffy.

Can Hamilton threaten Alonso and Raikkonen? Again, Mercedes history with car development is iffy.

Then can Webber break into first four and displace Hamilton? If Mercedes keeps struggling with tyres on most circuits, he could do it.

Could Grosjean beat Massa? Only if he performs like in Germany all the time.



So, doesn't look like we are going to get many changes this season any more?

Edited by sopa, 23 July 2013 - 20:54.

[spacekid]

I can't see Seb/RB losing 2013 now. The car in his hands may not always be the fastest, but I think its the most consistent race car across all tracks.

Meanwhile Alonso Hamilton Novo and Limo are taking points off each other, making it difficult to catch Seb.

Perhaps one team could really throw everything at 2013 to make life harder for RB, but they would only be losing ground on their other rivals for next year.

Better to let this form of F1 pass.

[weareracing]

I think it's got to the point that, like him or loathe him, people may need to re-evaluate the talent that Sebastian Vettel brings to Red Bull.
Add the Adrian Newey Factor and you have a very competitive package.
Mark my words, watch those Schumacher records tumble before Sebastian's career is over.
In 2013 he will match Juan Manuel Fangio's record.
Question is, can he match Schumacher (5 in a row) in 2014 given all the regulation changes, hmmmm

[senna da silva]

Looks unassailable to me.

[Shiroo]

No.

Maybe a closer question is if Raikkonen can take the fight to Alonso for second in the championship. He could, but Lotus' history of keeping up with car development is iffy.

Can Hamilton threaten Alonso and Raikkonen? Again, Mercedes history with car development is iffy.

Then can Webber break into first four and displace Hamilton? If Mercedes keeps struggling with tyres on most circuits, he could do it.

Could Grosjean beat Massa? Only if he performs like in Germany all the time.



So, doesn't look like we are going to get many changes this season any more?

Lotus was pretty decent at developing the car tbh. They were pretty in the same delta and the end of the season as in the beginning or slighlty better. Just look when they won their race in 2012.

Dunno where that "Lotus cant develop" thing came from. Especially that it has no background.

Edited by Shiroo, 23 July 2013 - 21:15.

[RicardoSilva]

Mercedes, Lotus and Ferrari may win races until the end of the season. But I don't think they are title contenders for this year.

[sopa]

Dunno where that "Lotus cant develop" thing came from. Especially that it has no background.

2011. And in 2012 other than the win Raikkonen could hardly finish above fifth in the final third of the season. While before that he got lots of podiums.

[Burtros]

As I see it, it hinges on Mercedes being able to sort their tyre problems. If they can, then they have two great drivers who with a few bad results for Seb could put some pressure on. I dont think its terribly likely, but this is the only team I see a real challenge materialising from. Do Lotus have the budget? Whats to suspect Ferrari can break their usual pattern and dramatically improve their car all of a sudden? Alonso doesnt have the mid-season cushion of points in his favour this year.

The other issue is of corse already well discussed and thats everyone taking points of each other. An improved McLaren will help Seb too, should that happen now. Also consider historically RB/Seb typically go well on the run in towards the end of the year.

Weighing it all up, I think its all but decided in Vettels favour. I dont see any reason to complain about that either. So far, they've done the best job.

[Callisto]

Lotus was pretty decent at developing the car tbh. They were pretty in the same delta and the end of the season as in the beginning or slighlty better. Just look when they won their race in 2012.

Dunno where that "Lotus cant develop" thing came from. Especially that it has no background.

I don't think its a matter of "can't " develop ,but more about having the money to keep developing imo

[baddog]

No, I am (rarely indeed) willing to make a prediction at this point. Vettel will dominate from here on in and win by a clear margin.

To the others.. good luck next year!

[George Costanza]

Only Fernando Alonso can really mount a striaght fight.

It is just too bad that Ferrari doesn't really match Red Bull in the race of development.

Then again, if Red Bull have a DNF at Hungary and does not to that good at Spa, it becomes wide open at Monza.

I still believe that Fernando Alonso can pull it off, but that is probably a wish.

Edited by George Costanza, 24 July 2013 - 00:11.

[Kingshark]

It's a sad moment when I have to root for Mercedes, a team that completely ruined Michael's comeback.

But hey, Lewis and Nico are the only ones who are capable (or, have a car which is capable) of outqualifying RBR on merit alone.

[alframsey]

Hard to envisage anyone challenging them on a consistent basis. Vettel is the best driver, Horner the best team boss, and Newey the best designer. Factor in Red Bull's financial clout, and it becomes clear that anyone wanting to redirect the spiotlight has a massive task in front of them. That Helmut Marko geezer is probably where they should concentrate their efforts. He seems like the weak link on a very strong chain.

Both of those claims are complete and utter horse ****, in my most honest opinion.

[Burtros]

Both of those claims are complete and utter horse ****, in my most honest opinion.

So despite winning 3 titles on the trot, you don't consider either of them to have any claim at all to be considered as the best out there?

Okay......

[bub]

I think Redbull/Vettel will win but I think it will still be reasonably close.

[mlsnoopy]

So despite winning 3 titles on the trot, you don't consider either of them to have any claim at all to be considered as the best out there?

Okay......

When your car is capable of going through corners with the DRS open it's hard to claim the best driver title.

[alframsey]

So despite winning 3 titles on the trot, you don't consider either of them to have any claim at all to be considered as the best out there?

Okay......

I do not consider either of them the best no, do they have a claim? Sure. It doesn't mean they are the best though, others have a better claim imo.

[Burtros]

I do not consider either of them the best no, do they have a claim? Sure. It doesn't mean they are the best though, others have a better claim imo.

Now see, thats a much better way of stating your opinion about a driver without having to refer to anyone else's perfectly justifiable opinion as 'horse ****'.

[Zava]

When your car is capable of going through corners with the DRS open it's hard to claim the best driver title.

so it seems settled, Hamilton can't be the best driver in the field.

btw, I hope you do realize that this year no one's car is going through corners with DRS open.