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Is the Diesel dead for autos?


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#1 mariner

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 11:10

This is prompted by all the discussion on MB getting a 50% TE on their hybrid PU but as l our real engine experts are commenting there I thought I would start a more general thread.

 

I wonder if the high point of auto diesel engines has now past?  Ford's 1 litre 3 cylinder is in mass production with mpg which seems to be within 10% of a diesel without all the DPF's or Urea injection etc.

 

Meanwhile VW have gotten into a teribble mess, and seriously damaged the diesel image, by trying to prove it can do everything in the USA.

 

The German premium mfrs, BMW and MB in many ways drove the diesel growth but now seem to be focusing on electrics in the case of BMW and, maybe hybrids for MB given the huge investment in F1.

 

Diesels were never actually that big a share of global engine production. The world car build is about 75M per year and diesel has 50% of the 17M or so in Europe and not much more than 10% anywhere else. For the two biggest markets USA and China it's very small indeed. So I suspect diesel is less than 20% of global build which must tempt mfrs to drop it if hybrid can get the same mpg/CO2 once the positive environmental image of Diesel goes away - which VW have tried hard to do !

 

So, is their a real future for road diesel or will it be a European only option on bigger , premium cars in 5-10 years?



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#2 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 13:42

will it be a European only option on bigger , premium cars in 5-10 years?

 

Sounds about right.  The traditional premium mfgs don't like to admit it, but the've lost a substantial number of customers to Tesla and things will not get better for them with production of Model X ramping up. It's getting harder and harder to ignore that more and more customers want electric and that ICE has started to decline. The market for ICE will be bigger than electric still for a while, but where do you put your focus? Somethings gotta go.



#3 saudoso

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 14:20

The world encompasses way more than California....

#4 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 14:39

The world encompasses way more than California....

 

Lucky thing that for the traditional premium mfgs. 



#5 BRG

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 16:13

Sounds about right.  The traditional premium mfgs don't like to admit it, but the've lost a substantial number of customers to Tesla

Yes, they've sold nearly 1,400 :eek: in the UK.  That must have Jaguar, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Mercedes etc really bricking it.

 

Reports of the death of diesel are, to put it mildly, massively overstated.  The new Maserati SUV only comes with a diesel (to the dismay of some who wanted the ripsnorting petrol V8) and diesels are still the motive power of choice for many, especially for SUVs and 4x4s.  Whilst small petrol turbos have come in successfully for small cars, these were not really the classes where diesels were dominant.  Having said that, I changed from a 1.6TDi to a 1.2TSi petrol model of the same car recently and found that I was getting similar MPG figures with minimal performance loss.



#6 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 18:42

Yes, they've sold nearly 1,400 :eek: in the UK.  That must have Jaguar, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Mercedes etc really bricking it.

 

 

Nah, what will really make them "brick it" is when they find out about Tesla getting more than 130000 reservations for the Model 3 already in the first 24 hours. Many of those made in blind, even before the presentation. If you have not seen it, check it out:

https://youtu.be/Q4VGQPk2Dl8



#7 Canuck

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 18:43

The Canuckistani market for diesel cars / vans and SUVs is very, very limited (from an offering perspective). There are a couple of offerings from MB, BMW and VAG and the only American offerinG I can think of at the moment is the Jeep Liberty diesel. There must be others but nobody is buying them.

The diesel market here is comprised of large pickup trucks (3/4 and 1-ton ratings). These are the primary choice of transportation in the Oil and Gas set and can be found anywhere on any street in the province. The Ford F350 is one of the most-often stolen vehicles on the local market. The prevalence of pickup trucks here is such that the downtown office towers having special sections of their underground parking dedicated to just trucks / large SUVS with roughly a 50/50 split of gasoline to diesel.

There are a number of Tesla P90s here and I have to guess that k the 180,000 deposits placed today for the new 3 model, they'll be more than a couple that land here. That said, they are in no way a threat to the local diesel market.

#8 Disgrace

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 18:51

Tesla is an exciting development but aren't they burning through their cash? I've also read that quality control and reliability for the Model S are rather troublesome. They'll be savaged by the market if it's the same story for the Model 3. They've got first-mover advantage in the premium bracket but they're far from the polished article.

 

"Clean diesel" is probably DOA in America but it is far from dead in Europe. Carmakers remains extremely cozy with the politicians in charge of setting emissions standards. In the wake of the VW scandal, the EU actually responded by granting them additional emissions leeway. And with large subsidies and tax breaks still on offer, it will remain the cheapest option for consumers. Little progress will be made until this pact is untangled.



#9 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 18:59

I see it as a shift. On the one end you have diesel loosing its status as "green" due to dieaselgate, on the other you have electric pushing its way into the marketplace. There will ofcourse still be plenty of people for who diesel is a viable choice, sometimes even the only sensible, but it's not cool anymore. Petrol has not been tarnished in the same way, and as electric is not for everyone yet, makes more sense for mfgs to focus on than diesel. At least for the premium market.  IMHO, ofcourse.



#10 Disgrace

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 19:09

I guess "clean diesel" will simply morph into "cheap diesel". Here is what I was referring to earlier about Tesla's cash flow:

 

Suppose Tesla eventually winds up with 300,000 [Model 3] reservations. To secure one, customers need to plunk down a refundable $1,000 deposit. That would bring an inflow of $300 million in deposits to the company, assuming no one requests a refund. Tesla’s 2015 free cash flow was negative $2.2 billion.  At that rate, the new deposit money coming in amounts to less than two months of cash. Tesla ended 2015 with just $1.2 billion of cash on hand.

 

A reservation is not necessarily a sale. Apparently, there is a significant amount of "reservation holders" who haven't yet followed through on their order for the Model X. I don't mean to bash them but there are some troubles under the hood.



#11 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 19:49

The cash flow thing is true, but yet it's not. The thing is, Tesla are not loosing money on the cars they are selling. If that was the case they would be up the proverbial creek very soon.  No, they are spending money investing in the future. The main money-pit is the construction of the Giga factory, the big battery manufacture they need for the Model 3.

 

Edit: The same can be said about the quality. It's true that Tesla has had some troubles, the car has not been perfect by any means, but it's still damn impressive. So how "bad" is the quality anyway? Well, Consumer reports had some things to say about it that was not too flattering, but they still rated Tesla Model S among the best cars of 2015: http://www.consumerr...t-cars-of-2015/


Edited by Superbar, 01 April 2016 - 20:57.


#12 BRG

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 21:20

A lot of people are falling for the Tesla hype - that car launch reminded me of a political rally with Musk's fan club whooping and applauding.  But I doubt if many of the supposed reservations will actually turn into hard sales.

 

The reality is rather different.  That Model 3 costs three times more than my SEAT, but only does 215 miles on a charge.  My SEAT does over 500 miles on a tankful and takes less than 5 minutes to refill.  There is a very long way to go, and I suspect Tesla will go bust long before they get there.  It will be the big boys who bring in the electric revolution.   


Edited by BRG, 01 April 2016 - 21:20.


#13 Superbar

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Posted 01 April 2016 - 21:48

A lot of people are falling for the Tesla hype - that car launch reminded me of a political rally with Musk's fan club whooping and applauding.  But I doubt if many of the supposed reservations will actually turn into hard sales.

 

The reality is rather different.  That Model 3 costs three times more than my SEAT, but only does 215 miles on a charge.  My SEAT does over 500 miles on a tankful and takes less than 5 minutes to refill.  There is a very long way to go, and I suspect Tesla will go bust long before they get there.  It will be the big boys who bring in the electric revolution.   

 

I do not agree, but nothing wrong with being sceptical, only time will tell ofcourse. About the hype, the big boys would love that kind of hype, but they are not getting it, because they are not really doing it. Tesla are.  Yeah, it can be a bit too much sometimes, I've seen it compared to Apple and I guess there's some truth to that.



#14 bigleagueslider

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 01:15

The competition for auto market share over the past few years between gasoline engines, diesel engines, hybrids, fuel cell electric, and battery electric has been very interesting. Every system has made significant gains in performance, cost, weight and reliability. However, while it may not make for good PR, SI gasoline recip engines have actually made enough improvement versus the competition that they will continue to be used by the majority of production autos for many years to come. There will still be some auto applications for diesel engines, but due to their higher production cost versus a gasoline engine, the market will remain limited.

 

Battery electric vehicles will remain a niche product with limited market share until battery technology improves significantly. Media darling Tesla continues to operate at a loss, even with significant financial support from US taxpayers. And their financial condition won't improve trying to compete with EVs from established auto OEMs by selling a lower priced model. I wish Tesla luck, but they will not likely prevail in a fight against market economics.



#15 Disgrace

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 02:17

Tesla is not quite getting all the breaks from government, however. Their direct sales model - which is where the Apple comparisons come from - has come a cropper against protections afforded to the traditional franchised dealership.



#16 gruntguru

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 03:14

The writing is on the wall IMO. Somewhere between 10 and 20 years from now, EV sales will be on par with combustion - and many of those will be plug-in hybrids.

 

As for Tesla fighting market economics - baloney. In 10 - 20 years market economics will favour EV's over fossil-fueled vehicles.

 

As for Tesla vs big auto - big auto is way behind the game. When the Giga-factory reaches full production it will be making half the worlds supply of lithium batteries. Anyone wanting to catch up with Tesla on EV volume must first catch up on battery production.



#17 gruntguru

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 03:20

Diesel is not dead but it is losing out to downsized turbo SI engines. The other issue is hybridisation. SI engines can compete with diesel on efficiency when optimised for a limited operating range which of course is one of the benefits of hybrid transmissions.



#18 404KF2

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 04:47

When we replace our B 200 someday, maybe north of 400K (213K now), we would like to get an EV with 400 km+ range.  So in maybe 6-7 years, we will be getting to that point.

 

I love my diesel smart but it's only an EU-3 and it's remapped and rather unclean.  Oh well.



#19 Wuzak

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 05:26

"Clean diesel" is probably DOA in America but it is far from dead in Europe. Carmakers remains extremely cozy with the politicians in charge of setting emissions standards. In the wake of the VW scandal, the EU actually responded by granting them additional emissions leeway. And with large subsidies and tax breaks still on offer, it will remain the cheapest option for consumers. Little progress will be made until this pact is untangled.

 

Tax breaks have a significant role in shaping teh market for Diesels, petrol, etc.

 

I believe that in France they have had tax breaks for Diesel cars, leading them to have the highest proportion of Diesel cars in Europe, possibly the world. But those tax breaks have been scaled back in the last year or so.



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#20 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 06:47

The main reason diesel has been so popular in Europe is because, unilke the rest of the world, we actually seriously attempted to lower CO2 emissions from cars and the regulators and car makers responded. The best way to do this was with turbo diesel. My 10 year old 330d can do 60mpg and 0-60mph in 6 seconds. Economy and performance. I'm not going to pretend the diesel particulates problem doesn't exist but that is the fault of the governments and regulators for not addressing it.

 

I won't buy another combustion engined car for daily use. I may buy ones for fun or collection in the future but I will go straight to electric for my next runner. I already regularly use the i3 on Drive Now in London and it's the best city car I've driven. I test drove a P90D a few weeks ago and it was by some margin the fastest accelerating car I've ever driven (racing cars included) and using the supercharger network would never have to pay for fuel again (assuming it's going to stay free).

 

Model 3 launch:

 

It's interesting to see Tesla focus on CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global temperature when talking about their raison d'etre. This is exactly what the Kyoto protocol set out to redress and was rejected by the US. I found the Dieselgate outrage in the US more than a little hypocritical when the average car in the US does around 20mpg and therefore emits way more CO2 than an equivelant performance diesel car. The evidence is there but it seems most Americans have been more keen to listen to their pro business pro pollution leaders than the scientists. Its refreshing to see a US based CEO of a car company go against the grain in this respect. He is a visionary of a future and is on the path there. To judge him on current products and short term PnLs is very short sighted.

 

As for the Model 3 itself, it's probably the least exciting from a design point of view so far. The combination of layout and price point sounds great however. When I drove the Model S the amount of extra space vs a similar sized IC car was noticeable. To do that with the model 3 is going to kill the 3 series BMW IMO which for all it's desirability as a drivers car has always been low on interior space vs cheaper hatchbacks. Obviously BMW are working on electrifying their cars and won't hang around but they key to all this is battery technology. Who owns the IP and has the production capability on the best batteries will have a huge advantage. It looks like Tesla have an advantage of ambition here vs big auto but lets see how it plays out.

 

Some interesting developments in the UK:

 

http://www.usatoday....ition/74219276/

 

http://www.theguardi...nment-documents


Edited by Tenmantaylor, 02 April 2016 - 07:03.


#21 mariner

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 07:52

I think people; particularly in Europe have a habit on knocking the USA on car pollution which is counter to history.

 

- Love them or loathe them the Californians had the first pollution regulations, later copied by Europe (except for diesel).

 

- The world's first legally binding car CO2 restrictions were in the USA - the CAFE fuel economy rules of the 1970's. 40 years alter Europe followed the USA with an Identical corporate average CO2 limit.

 

- The Californians led the way on limiting Nox thus barring diesels from the market. Despite the health dangers of Nox and particulates being well documented Europe chose to encourage diesels by offering lower fuel taxes in countries like France

 

You can certainly criticise the USA for not accelerating the CAFE targets for many years but, equally, the EU CO2 regulations have special adjustments to allow premium cars to exceed the limits for a while.



#22 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 08:17

I think people; particularly in Europe have a habit on knocking the USA on car pollution which is counter to history.

 

- Love them or loathe them the Californians had the first pollution regulations, later copied by Europe (except for diesel).

 

- The world's first legally binding car CO2 restrictions were in the USA - the CAFE fuel economy rules of the 1970's. 40 years alter Europe followed the USA with an Identical corporate average CO2 limit.

 

- The Californians led the way on limiting Nox thus barring diesels from the market. Despite the health dangers of Nox and particulates being well documented Europe chose to encourage diesels by offering lower fuel taxes in countries like France

 

You can certainly criticise the USA for not accelerating the CAFE targets for many years but, equally, the EU CO2 regulations have special adjustments to allow premium cars to exceed the limits for a while.

Agreed, if not for tax concessions in Europe diesels would only be in cabs,, maybe.

The US and especially California were a long way ahead of Europe.

The SUV/ 4WD market though is largely now only diesel, why escapes me as many want a ute or a 4wd with a petrol motor. It had gotten to being you will buy what we give you. And many are hating it but to buy a decent wagon or ute with a petrol is a real problem.

Toymota have a string of dramas with the Hilux diesel and the V8 Landcruiser too. As do many other manufacturers but persist with selling them. Running diesels very lean and the way the injection works have made unreliable engines with very high repair bills. 

A well off family I know wanted a new Landcruiser, he is turned off by the diesel problems and she will not even contemplate a diesel as refueling is a grubby icky mess. They bought a petrol BMW but are less than impressed by that.

BUT here in Oz an electric car is as usefull as an ashtray on a motorbike, we travel greater distances. As a Euro friend once said while travelling while driving the Birdsville Track is that we have travelled 3 Euro countries today. The stations are bigger! 

Tesla,, you may just travel Adel- Melbourne if you are very lucky, about 700k. Or you may be stranded a100k or so short. Then it takes several hours to recharge. They are city cars that may get to the near rural areas.

Next to useless and with the cost of electricity hardly cost effective either, they make a hybrid Camry look sensible and those things travel with the caravans at 90k or they use way too much fuel.

Diesels belong in trucks, and electricity is for milk floats!



#23 Superbar

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 08:29

I do not want to be more OT, this is about diesel after all. I just want to add though to my earlier comment about the hype that it has a downside to it. It's polarazing. There are a lof of FUD and mud thrown Teslas way too. Can be difficult to see the truth sometimes. So be careful what you believe, negative or positive.



#24 Tenmantaylor

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 08:41

Diesels are for trucks? Since when did economy become only the concern of industry? Consumers care about it too. Especially in countries like the UK where the government taxes the hell out of the fuel.

 

The UK's most economical cars 2015

 

Hybrids? Petrol? Nope. Just small diesel cars.



#25 Talisman

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 10:46

I think people; particularly in Europe have a habit on knocking the USA on car pollution which is counter to history.

- Love them or loathe them the Californians had the first pollution regulations, later copied by Europe (except for diesel).

- The world's first legally binding car CO2 restrictions were in the USA - the CAFE fuel economy rules of the 1970's. 40 years alter Europe followed the USA with an Identical corporate average CO2 limit.

- The Californians led the way on limiting Nox thus barring diesels from the market. Despite the health dangers of Nox and particulates being well documented Europe chose to encourage diesels by offering lower fuel taxes in countries like France

You can certainly criticise the USA for not accelerating the CAFE targets for many years but, equally, the EU CO2 regulations have special adjustments to allow premium cars to exceed the limits for a while.


Europeans don't care for particulates, NOx or other pollutants assuming that European regulations are strict enough on that front. They do care about CO2 emissions especially because many states use it to tax. The weakness of those European regulations has been hidden well as has the close relationship between the EU and European car makers when drawing them up. The VW Affair and the discrepancy between American and European emissions regulations has to some extent become more widely known.

A good friend of mine is a public health consultant and she told me recently that there is increasing statistical evidence linking particulate emissions in particular and respiratory disease. She feels that within a decade or so the link will be irrefutable and just like smoking there would be grounds for large scale legal action against the parties involved in promoting wide usage of diesels.

Like others here I'm yet to be convinced by fully electric cars. Superchargers are great but when everyone has a Tesla 3 then the queues to get charged will be long enough that most people will be put off. Quality is still poor and that isn't going to get better by increasing production numbers so quickly. If electric is to get a foothold it will be through mainstream makers not Tesla.

#26 mariner

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 16:31


 

As for Tesla vs big auto - big auto is way behind the game. When the Giga-factory reaches full production it will be making half the worlds supply of lithium batteries. Anyone wanting to catch up with Tesla on EV volume must first catch up on battery production.

 That may well be true when it opens and Tesla get beyond current volumes but according to Automotive news the LG factory in Detroit is the biggest in the USA today.

 

http://gas2.org/2015...-factory-in-us/



#27 Superbar

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 17:31

 That may well be true when it opens and Tesla get beyond current volumes but according to Automotive news the LG factory in Detroit is the biggest in the USA today.

 

http://gas2.org/2015...-factory-in-us/

 

Yeah, if you are interested in electrical cars you know that LG chem is turning into a big player. GM couldn't be making the Bolt without them. Other brands stand inline too. It's practical for them, LG has already done the work. Maybe that is shortsighted though, maybe they should develop it inhouse like Tesla. Who knows, maybe they still have plenty of time. Maybe not.



#28 mariner

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 17:42

Hybrids? Petrol? Nope. Just small diesel cars.

 

The issue isn't that diesel cars dont give excellent CO2/mpg - it is that the ownership cost penalties no longer justify buying a small diesel car - at least in the UK

 

A diesel FIAT 500 Lounge edition has 95 bhp and does 83 mpg/89 gms/km CO2 in the EU test. It costs £15,040 and a new DPF is about £1,300 at a dealer and wil probably be needed after 5-6 years.

 

A twinair 85bhp lounge version of the same 500 has 74 mpg and 90 gms/km for £13,940 and no DPF bills later on.

 

The first owner wil save £1,100 on purchase and the second owner will likely save £1,300 later on. Both MPG figures are as unrealistic but that only increases the importance of purchase/running cos versus fuel bills.



#29 BRG

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Posted 02 April 2016 - 18:18

As usual, all the talk about how clean electric vehicles are fails to address the issue of the pollution caused by the power plants that provide their 'clean' power.  

 

As for the particulate problem, that is just the fashionable concern of the 2010s.  In the 1990s it was CO2 and in the 1970s it was acid rain.  Guess what, we will all change to EVs and then the ecomentalists will suddenly discover all the unfavourable things about them - toxic batteries, power plant pollution and probably they will concoct some concern about carcinogenic dangers from tyre dust or something else to alarm and dismay the easily led.



#30 Magoo

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 00:01

Ms. Ségolène Royal, French Environment Minister, speaking last October on the future of diesel: 

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg...l-tax-advantage



#31 imaginesix

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 01:47

Nah, what will really make them "brick it" is when they find out about Tesla getting more than 130000 reservations for the Model 3 already in the first 24 hours. Many of those made in blind, even before the presentation. If you have not seen it, check it out:

https://youtu.be/Q4VGQPk2Dl8

Copy & Paste myself from another thread on the topic of Tesla:

 

There is clearly a subculture of Tesla fanatics out there. Those 180,000 (updated) pre-orders must necessarily be from people who don't need a car, since it isn't due for years and people don't buy cars they need that far ahead of time. The Tesla is a lifestyle choice for most of them, and many would have bought an S or X anyways. Regular buyers will predominantly go for major brand cars that will exist by then, and that will be reliable. Despite selling cars that occupy a niche market without competition, the company still isn't managing to sustain itself. The Model 3, by moving Tesla into a larger but competitive market, can't change that.

The cars offer computer-age design and operation philosophy in a world of combustion-age thinking, which is novel but not revolutionary. Probably their direct sales approach could be called revolutionary for the US (and I think it's great) but that's not going to make them a success.

I predict they will struggle to exceed 100,000 units per year (those 180,000 pre-orders are not orders, they are 100% refundable at any time). The best that can be hoped for IMO is that Tesla makes enough money to keep itself afloat and lurching along, until perhaps one day it achieves big-league success somehow. But from what we know now, there's no moment in the foreseeable future when that will happen.


Edited by imaginesix, 03 April 2016 - 01:54.


#32 imaginesix

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 02:05

As usual, all the talk about how clean electric vehicles are fails to address the issue of the pollution caused by the power plants that provide their 'clean' power.  

What post(s) are you referring to? The 'issue' doesn't need to be addressed if it doesn't impact the claim being made.



#33 Wuzak

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 03:32

The SUV/ 4WD market though is largely now only diesel, why escapes me as many want a ute or a 4wd with a petrol motor.


It is largely only Diesel as that is largely what customers want. Because the fuel economy of big vehicles with Diesels is superior to those with petrol.
 

BUT here in Oz an electric car is as usefull as an ashtray on a motorbike, we travel greater distances. As a Euro friend once said while travelling while driving the Birdsville Track is that we have travelled 3 Euro countries today. The stations are bigger! 
Tesla, you may just travel Adel- Melbourne if you are very lucky, about 700k. Or you may be stranded a100k or so short. Then it takes several hours to recharge. They are city cars that may get to the near rural areas.
Next to useless and with the cost of electricity hardly cost effective either, they make a hybrid Camry look sensible and those things travel with the caravans at 90k or they use way too much fuel.


We have a very big country yes.

 

But we also mostly live in big urban centres. And most of our car travel is less than 100km, well within the range of a Tesla S.

 

And the average communting distance in Australia is 15.6km each way. Well within the capabilities of most EVs.

 

https://bitre.gov.au...iles/is_073.pdf



#34 gruntguru

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 06:18

I wonder what % of Aussies travel the Birdsville track more than once every 10 years? I will guarantee it is less than 1%!!!!!

 

I wonder what % of Aussies make a journey of >700k more than once every 10 years? I will guarantee it is less than 5%!!!!!

 

The other 95% can probably get by with a current, low-range EV and rent something for that odd occasion (saving a fortune in the process).



#35 gruntguru

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 06:22

As usual, all the talk about how clean electric vehicles are fails to address the issue of the pollution caused by the power plants that provide their 'clean' power.  

Erm. . . . there is no issue.

An EV running on 100% coal fired electricity emits less CO2 than a combustion car. There are other benefits - the pollution is generated away from where people live. The waste-heat is released away from cities reducing the heat-island effect and reducing air conditioning demand.

 

Meanwhile coal is on the decline anyways.



#36 Wuzak

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 07:22

Meanwhile coal is on the decline anyways.

 

Take that back.

 

Everyone knows that coalis good for humanity (brought to you by the government that is investigating the health effects of wind turbines but has never bothered with investigating the same for coal planet).



#37 Greg Locock

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 07:57

Unless (and even if) we develop cheap deployable nuclear generating plants for third world countries then I am very confident that coal consumption worldwide will increase for at least the next fifteen years... and probably longer. Any attempt to view coal consumption via first world perspectives will fail, both China and India are building coal plants as if they were funded with free money. Which it is (or close to it) courtesy of Japan's energy initiatives. 

 

I must confess I am waiting for the well known other shoe to drop on renewables, at some point a government is going to accept that either it makes a massive investment in storage, or parallel distribution, or it will have to limit renewables to X% of the total generating capability. X is less than 20, I think.  



#38 Magoo

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 09:40

Erm. . . . there is no issue.

An EV running on 100% coal fired electricity emits less CO2 than a combustion car. There are other benefits - the pollution is generated away from where people live. The waste-heat is released away from cities reducing the heat-island effect and reducing air conditioning demand.

 

Meanwhile coal is on the decline anyways.

 

 

In the USA, coal is 39 percent of the grid and falling fast. 



#39 Magoo

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 09:46

 That may well be true when it opens and Tesla get beyond current volumes but according to Automotive news the LG factory in Detroit is the biggest in the USA today.

 

http://gas2.org/2015...-factory-in-us/

 

Thank you for the excellent discussion and the post, and not to sharpshoot you at all, but the LG plant is in Holland, Michigan, which is on the opposite side of the state from Detroit, hard against Lake Michigan. 

 

You had me going for a moment... there's an LG battery plant in Detroit? Nobody told me! 



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#40 Superbar

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 10:27

Copy & Paste myself from another thread on the topic of Tesla:

 

There is clearly a subculture of Tesla fanatics out there. Those 180,000 (updated) pre-orders must necessarily be from people who don't need a car, since it isn't due for years and people don't buy cars they need that far ahead of time. 

 

 

Elon Musk twittred last night that they had reached 256000 reservations. Not pre-orders really, just to have a place in the line when orders open up.  Anyway, yeah, sure, they don't need the car now. That's not the point though. They want it. Some are Tesla fans that already own a Tesla car and do it because of enthusiasm, others are people who'd like to buy a Tesla but just can't afford an Model S/X or even if they could would not want to spend that kind of money on a car. Sure, not all reservations will convert into orders, but there is no denying that there is a huge interest in the Model 3.



#41 BRG

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 20:26

Tesla are a mirage that will evaporate.  The economics don't add up.  I note that BMW have already sold more of their i3 and i8 cars in the UK than Tesla's total.  The big boys will win the EV race not the minnows.



#42 MatsNorway

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 21:37

Luxury cars are still around. Despite the low sale numbers. Then again they are often owned by other big companies. VW has Bentley? Ford is jaguar.. Rolls is BMW it seems.

 

Okey then.. what about brands like Koenigsegg? I think Tesla can keep going and grow, as a high end brand. Lots of cheap Electric car manufacturers that have gone into the history books.



#43 Superbar

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Posted 03 April 2016 - 23:05

Yeah, the Model 3 will be a big step up for Tesla, but not a "peoples car" like the VW Golf or the Ford Focus. It's supposed to compete in the small premium car category. You know, the BMW 3 series, Audi A4 and such. Elon Musk figures that if he can make a substantial dent in the sales of those cars he can make "the big boys" get serious about electric. Until then it's silly to talk about an "EV race" because as it is they are not really trying. It's side projects done more for "green washing" than anything else. The big boys just want to continue to do what they know, what they are good at, make money selling ICE cars. So far you can say they are right to do so, but for how long? 

 

BTW, don't get me started on the BMW i3....  



#44 bigleagueslider

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 01:59

In the auto market, the main competition for diesel engines are gasoline engines. SI gasoline engines have become very efficient using technologies like direct injection, variable valve control, variable displacement, turbocharging, etc. While DI diesel auto engines have also improved their efficiency, it is more difficult and costly to meet auto exhaust emissions standards with a diesel than with a gasoline engine. In most auto markets it is hard to justify the added cost of a diesel engine versus a gasoline engine.

 

Here in the US, the retail pump price of diesel is actually a bit higher than gasoline. In theory diesel should be cheaper since you can get a higher yield of diesel than gasoline when refining crude oil. But due to much greater demand for gasoline versus diesel in the US retail fuel market, most oil refineries producing fuel are optimized for production of gasoline.

 

Gasoline engines will dominate the US auto market for the foreseeable future. In fact, it appears PEV sales in the US have already peaked. The large EV purchase subsidies provided by US taxpayers are already being phased out. And many states are considering taxing autos by mileage rather than taxing the purchase of fuel.



#45 imaginesix

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 02:17

Elon Musk twittred last night that they had reached 256000 reservations. Not pre-orders really, just to have a place in the line when orders open up.  Anyway, yeah, sure, they don't need the car now. That's not the point though. They want it. Some are Tesla fans that already own a Tesla car and do it because of enthusiasm, others are people who'd like to buy a Tesla but just can't afford an Model S/X or even if they could would not want to spend that kind of money on a car. Sure, not all reservations will convert into orders, but there is no denying that there is a huge interest in the Model 3.

No, sales are precisely the point. We have no idea if there's "huge interest" in buying based on these noncommittal deposits. How many people put down 2-year early deposits on other cars before this? That might help tell us how huge the interest is. And how many of those deposits will convert into a purchase?

 

If you think Tesla's going to sell 1/4 million cars in a couple years you're dreaming. The hoopla is fun to watch and it helps commit Tesla fanatics but when it comes time to plonk down the remaining $34,000 in two years, another effect will take over called reality.



#46 Kelpiecross

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 03:00

Unless (and even if) we develop cheap deployable nuclear generating plants for third world countries then I am very confident that coal consumption worldwide will increase for at least the next fifteen years... and probably longer. Any attempt to view coal consumption via first world perspectives will fail, both China and India are building coal plants as if they were funded with free money. Which it is (or close to it) courtesy of Japan's energy initiatives. 
 
I must confess I am waiting for the well known other shoe to drop on renewables, at some point a government is going to accept that either it makes a massive investment in storage, or parallel distribution, or it will have to limit renewables to X% of the total generating capability. X is less than 20, I think.


I would have to agree.

#47 gruntguru

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 03:25

 

BTW, don't get me started on the BMW i3....

OK.



#48 gruntguru

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 03:55

 

I must confess I am waiting for the well known other shoe to drop on renewables, at some point a government is going to accept that either it makes a massive investment in storage, or parallel distribution, or it will have to limit renewables to X% of the total generating capability. X is less than 20, I think.  

https://www.cleanene...lia-report.html

Australia is already > 13% renewable although half of that is hydro (which is available around the clock). I think "X" in that situation is greater than 20% (depending largely on the mix of other renewables). I wonder how much of that hydro could be converted to operate as pumped storage when required? That alone would provide a huge buffer for intermittency in other sources.

 

The government has already committed to 20% renewables by 2020 and (28%?) by 2030 while the other major party has a policy of 50% by 2030.



#49 Greg Locock

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 04:08

Back to the OP, and the later claim that the efficiency of SI is catching up with diesels.  It is, but it isn't there yet. My Territory Diesel SUV almost matches the Falcon Ecoboost for fuel consumption, despite a 500 kg weight difference, tires, and CdA. I'm not knocking the Ecoboost Falcon, it is more suitable for me than the I6 although i do not love the tires, which are LRR boing boings.

 

I think diesels grew so rapidly because the Europeans gave them so many tax breaks, and so on, which they have now decided to rescind because of the PM panic. 



#50 gruntguru

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Posted 04 April 2016 - 05:33

Of course the gap always seems bigger than reality because of our habit of measuring efficiency in mpg or l/100km when diesel fuel contains typically 10% more energy on a volumetric basis. Coincidentally the price of diesel seems to reflect that around these parts.