Posted 26 November 2018 - 19:09
Mercedes - Hamilton has Bottas beaten. He's absolutely got him in his pocket, making this probably the most comfortable dynamic out of all of them. Bottas will beat him four or five times in qualifying over the season, and at best will be in the Barrichello 'take advantage if something goes wrong for the boss' position. Nothing much else to say. Success for Bottas will be finishing p2 or p3 rather than this season's pretty atrocious P5. Hamilton
Ferrari - I think the arrival of Leclerc will push Vettel a bit harder and maybe give him a kick up the arse. He needs one. He's quick as ever on his day but those awful errors the last two years have killed two possible titles stone dead. Vettel hasn't risen above 8/10 most of the year but there's the potential for him to get back to 9 or 10 and suddenly he's almost Hamilton's equal again. I think Leclerc will give him that kick. As a result the relative Ferrari positions may look rather like this year instead of the Ricciardo 2014 people expect. I don't think that will happen, but if it does Seb is out on his arse and I'm sure he knows that too. Vettel
Red Bull - sorry, I'm not really sold on Gasly yet. He did alright, beat Hartley, got a couple of higlight results but wasn't consistently there in the same way Sainz had been and yet he's the one who gets the drive? Hmm. I mean he's clearly done well in his junior career, but you never know how someone going to stack up and this looks like more of a Kvyat graduation than a Max to me. Verstappen.
Renault - I think Ricciardo will probably be the stronger. There's a reason why Hulkenberg has never quite made the step up, and it's because I don't think he really develops, he hit his ceiling maybe back in 2014 with Force India and has done the same thing every season ever since. He will qualify at the head of midfield regularly, drive cleanly to strong results but he'll have a number of first lap DNFs and when there's a chance of a big result he won't be the one to grab advantage, it'll go to someone else. He's Mr 7.5/10 for me. Ricciardo was shown up by Verstappen this year, but I reckon most drivers eould have been. Revitalised and with a new project to get his teeth into, he'll impress. Ricciardo
Haas - You can never tell. Grosjean is the quicker driver of the two I think, but his form is so up and down, whereas Magnussen tends to start really strongly and fade away a bit. Grosjean like Hulkenberg will probably just continue to do his regular thing but it's less predictable which one will turn up - the one capable of bossing the midfield or the one who looks like he's desperate for a sh*t. no idea
Force India
Perez
McLaren - Sainz is quite underrated based on this season I think, he's just has a bit of a blah season for whatever reason, possibly partly because he's known he was unwanted at Renault since the summer. He matched up to Hulkenberg pretty well actually, in a very similar way to Perez in 2014 - so if he stayed at Renault I could have seen him beating Nico next year. McLaren will get a decent performer there. Norris will be okay, he's a capable racer and knows the team, so you can kinda overlook his disappointing F2 season. But I don't think he'll beat Sainz consistently, if there are points to squeeze out of the car then it'll be Sainz who does it most consistently. Sainz
Toro Rosso - Albon is pretty decent I think, and Kvyat is a bizarre choice to come back, because by the end of 2017 he'd pretty much confirmed that he was a walking disaster. much as Red Bull contributed to that, I can't get over the fact that the muppet that nudged his STR into the wall at Singapore 2017 to finally end his time in F1 is somehow back and driving for that same team. Why? It's stupid. Surely Red Bull aren't that short of choices? Hartley would be worthy of a second year, Ticktum might get enough SL points after all, and instead Kvyat is back in the car? Anyway, dunno which of these will come out ahead. Probably Albon.
Sauber - Kimi was still at a high level in 2018 and if he's still got the fire in him, he'll do a good job next year in that car. But Giovinazzi is no mug and he's experienced enough to jump in and do a decent job right from the start. Think this one might be quite close actually, but I'll say that Kimi will probably just about edge it on experience this year. Raikkonen.
Williams - Russell is brilliant. Properly brilliant. The way he's blazed through the junior series says a lot and I really hope the Williams is more competitive next year because if it is, he'll take his chances to shine. No idea what Kubicas level is going to be, like most people. Think he'll be in the ballpark, but if that actual spark from his BMW days is still there I'll be really impressed. Think it'll be Russell on top.