4397 replies to this topic

[HeadFirst]

Call me a complete fool then. I don't take him seriously at all. It is clear that he like to feel self-important and has got himself into a position where he can pontificate and play the big I-am and I-know-it-all. But that doesn't wash with me. He just likes the sound of his own voice and says contentious things to ensure people keep coming back to listen to him.

 

The Donald Trump of F1?

[derstatic]

That Vettel lap shows a car which is not twitchy, just at ease and clearly a lot more time in it. It doesnt even look like its on the edge.

I have seen a similar for lewis lap but that to me looks like one clean car.

Agree. The car looks very tidy and even if Vettel is obviously not cruising around, what I see here is not a flat out Q3-lap. Goes where he points the steering and no fuss. When completely on the limit no car I have seen during 20 years of watching motorsport is so well behaved.

[Requiem84]

That car is so good it doesn’t even need apexes.

[Jbleroi]

Max will go nowhere even if redbull and honda dont deliver and fail misserably this year... but they are gooing to win GP’s in 2019 i have no doubt about that, if it is enough for the WDC is a different matter and i have no clue about that based on the last two weeks.

It is a long term project and the perfect partnership for both redbull and honda so i expect it to go beyond 2020 with max as their lead driver.... why would he change? Both parties are spending the money, he is working with the best chasis builder, it is a kind of works deal now, he is the no1 driver and the Kid is only 21, so he can still do at least 2 multi year projects with different works team..


I hope for an exciting 3 way battle with lots of drama and tension because that would be good for the sport

Edited by Jbleroi, 03 March 2019 - 19:48.

[Gambelli]

Verstappen and Leclerc will obviously be the next 2 superstars, maybe there is one guy that will surprise us coming through the ranks to join them.

 

I'm calling it early here, Liam Lawson

[Marklar]

Verstappen and Leclerc will obviously be the next 2 superstars, maybe there is one guy that will surprise us coming through the ranks to join them.

I mean we thought at some stage that Kimi and Alonso will dominate F1 (and well, it started well with three titles), but then other guys turned up to take their hype.

[Matthew22]

FWIW - similar graphs to what I did but including numbers for Haas:


Source: https://www.f1techni...=818956#p818956

Thanks for posting this.

The only thing I can conclude from those graphs (and therefore the lap times) are just how inconclusive they are. For me Sainz starting on the Dev 3 tyre almost makes a cumulative race time a waste as the deg on it caused a 3 stop and/or they pitted early for some reason. Alfa on c3 vs haas on c3 at the start of the first race sim stint, the alfas times murder the Haas but the alfa pits after only 5 laps with seemingly no drop off occurring yet.

https://soymotor.com...-finales-961041

All i would say is, we no stuff all about what everyone is up to and while its fun to speculate, the data we are using to draw conclusions is muddy at best

Edited by Matthew22, 03 March 2019 - 21:41.

[sladealonso]

I'm calling it early here, Liam Lawson

I agree with this

Leclerc in a Ferrari, Max in a Mercedes? And Lawson in a Red Bull...

Edited by sladealonso, 03 March 2019 - 22:02.

[Gambelli]

I agree with this

Leclerc in a Ferrari, Max in a Mercedes? And Lawson in a Red Bull...

 

That would be awesome... I'd love to say Mick Schu/Leclerc superteam at ferrari but I don't think Mick will quite hit the heights of those other 3, I think they are special....

[Mosrite]

It's gonna be one huge anticlimax on here when that Ferrari fails to give Hamilton any trouble over the course of race, strong starts, and then slowly fade away

[Dan333SP]

It's gonna be one huge anticlimax on here when that Ferrari fails to give Hamilton any trouble over the course of race, strong starts, and then slowly fade away

 

I hope you're wrong, but I know in my heart you're right.

[Unicast]

It's gonna be one huge anticlimax on here when that Ferrari fails to give Hamilton any trouble over the course of race, strong starts, and then slowly fade away

 

Anticlimax in what way exactly?

Edited by Unicast, 04 March 2019 - 15:11.

[BRK]

I mean we thought at some stage that Kimi and Alonso will dominate F1 (and well, it started well with three titles), but then other guys turned up to take their hype.

 

I think there's way more hype & expectations around Leclerc than around Alonso or Kimi after 1 year! 

[DrF]

It's gonna be one huge anticlimax on here when that Ferrari fails to give Hamilton any trouble over the course of race, strong starts, and then slowly fade away

again

[Nonesuch]

Verstappen and Leclerc will obviously be the next 2 superstars, maybe there is one guy that will surprise us coming through the ranks to join them.

 

Verstappen is entering his 6th season already, 5th if you don't count his free practise outings. He's still quite young, but he's no longer the new kid on the block. He's already in the upper half of most GP starts among current drivers.

 

It all depends on the car. He might just end up being one of the many drivers who won a couple of races, made a bit of a name for himself by being rough on track, and then left F1 without ever having seriously challenged for a title.

[CPR]

A question for any Red Bull watches who followed their testing closely: have you seen any times which gives you a lot of confidence that the team can win races this year?
 
I've looked into this a bit and from what I can see in a possible like-for-like comparison is that RB seem quite a bit slower in terms of race pace. Sure, RB could be sandbagging a lot more than Ferrari and Mercedes are sandbagging but are you sure? Would there be any point in doing laps 2-3s down on what they can really do? To be clear, I'm not just talking about fuel - in a race sim, all cars should be heavy on fuel in the first stint. My sneaking suspicion is that the Honda PU is good in quali but poor in the race, relative to other PUs.

 

A question for any Haas watchers who followed their testing closely: Haas have "surprised" at Melbourne a few times and when they do there's generally some who say that there signs were there in testing all along. What signs have these been, historically? Race sim pace?

[FullOppositeLock]

A question for any Red Bull watches who followed their testing closely: have you seen any times which gives you a lot of confidence that the team can win races this year?

I've looked into this a bit and from what I can see in a possible like-for-like comparison is that RB seem quite a bit slower in terms of race pace. Sure, RB could be sandbagging a lot more than Ferrari and Mercedes are sandbagging but are you sure? Would there be any point in doing laps 2-3s down on what they can really do? To be clear, I'm not just talking about fuel - in a race sim, all cars should be heavy on fuel in the first stint. My sneaking suspicion is that the Honda PU is good in quali but poor in the race, relative to other PUs.

A question for any Haas watchers who followed their testing closely: Haas have "surprised" at Melbourne a few times and when they do there's generally some who say that there signs were there in testing all along. What signs have these been, historically? Race sim pace?

There could be some truth to this, certainly relative to Renault who appeared to have the opposite relationship the last few years (due to lacking a party mode primarily). But to answer your question: no I haven’t. Any hope or cautious optimism is based on their history of refrain in precious winter tests and their own incredible optimistic vibes in recent weeks. It could well be they are justifying their Honda move to themselves and overestimating where they stand, who really knows..? All will soon be revealed, and I for one can’t wait.

[lewislorenzo]

HAM is very good in AUS wouldn't be surprised to him pull something out. Although for the next races BAH, CHI & AZB I expect Ferrari to be superior like last season

Edited by lewislorenzo, 04 March 2019 - 18:53.

[w1Y]

What we have seen is not merc sandbagging but everyone inflating mercs car. Everyone puts ferrari ahead

[sladealonso]

Hey all, just wondering if anyone knew the fastest time every team set on the C3 tyre?

[SonGoku]

A question for any Red Bull watches who followed their testing closely: have you seen any times which gives you a lot of confidence that the team can win races this year?
 
I've looked into this a bit and from what I can see in a possible like-for-like comparison is that RB seem quite a bit slower in terms of race pace. Sure, RB could be sandbagging a lot more than Ferrari and Mercedes are sandbagging but are you sure? Would there be any point in doing laps 2-3s down on what they can really do? To be clear, I'm not just talking about fuel - in a race sim, all cars should be heavy on fuel in the first stint. My sneaking suspicion is that the Honda PU is good in quali but poor in the race, relative to other PUs.

 

A question for any Haas watchers who followed their testing closely: Haas have "surprised" at Melbourne a few times and when they do there's generally some who say that there signs were there in testing all along. What signs have these been, historically? Race sim pace?

 

It's the same case for Mercedes, I haven't seen one time/run that was impressive or surprising, only Ferrari did that according to people being around the track.

[PayasYouRace]

Verstappen is entering his 6th season already, 5th if you don't count his free practise outings. He's still quite young, but he's no longer the new kid on the block. He's already in the upper half of most GP starts among current drivers.

 

It all depends on the car. He might just end up being one of the many drivers who won a couple of races, made a bit of a name for himself by being rough on track, and then left F1 without ever having seriously challenged for a title.

 

To put that into context, Verstappen is entering the equivalent of (and I'm not counting a year of free practice sessions):

 

Hamilton's 2011

Alonso's 2006

Schumacher's 1996

Hakkinen's 1995

Prost's 1984

Senna's 1988

 

To pick just a few.

[FullOppositeLock]

That's fair enough, as Max is indeed an experienced F1 driver now, but as we all know competing for and winning championships is as much about the car as it is about the driver, and arguably even much more so (a recent study suggested race results in F1 were determined for 84% by the car, and only 16% by driver skill).

 

While we won't know whether Max himself is up to the challenge 100% until he's been under pressure of competing for a championship I think it's fair to see most F1 followers would by now, at the start of his fifth F1 campaign, have Max down as one of the sport's top performers and probably capable of at least challenging for titles if given the chance, i.e. a championship capable car. The Red Bull of the past three years was a very good car, but the total package wasn't good enough to compete for race wins consistently and that's what you need if you ultimately want to challenge for titles, and 2015's Toro Rosso certainly wasn't.

 

Let's also not forget Max came into the sport as a 16 year old with many ex and current F1 drivers openly questioning his readiness and ability to compete at this level, and whilst he's sometimes shown immaturity in the way he's handled certain situations there is little doubt anymore about his F1 credentials I would have thought. Give him a car capable of competing for titles and he has the skill to make the most of it, even if he's mentally not yet entirely proven, in the same way as nobody who's never been in that situation of having such a car has ever conclusively proven to be ready.

Edited by FullOppositeLock, 04 March 2019 - 22:23.

[Matthew22]

A question for any Red Bull watches who followed their testing closely: have you seen any times which gives you a lot of confidence that the team can win races this year?
 
I've looked into this a bit and from what I can see in a possible like-for-like comparison is that RB seem quite a bit slower in terms of race pace. Sure, RB could be sandbagging a lot more than Ferrari and Mercedes are sandbagging but are you sure? Would there be any point in doing laps 2-3s down on what they can really do? To be clear, I'm not just talking about fuel - in a race sim, all cars should be heavy on fuel in the first stint. My sneaking suspicion is that the Honda PU is good in quali but poor in the race, relative to other PUs.

 

A question for any Haas watchers who followed their testing closely: Haas have "surprised" at Melbourne a few times and when they do there's generally some who say that there signs were there in testing all along. What signs have these been, historically? Race sim pace?

 

I don't want to name drop or pretend I'm some kind of insider, but when I was at the test I paid for the opportunity to go inside the Red Bull garage on Day 6 at about 3:30. It was right at the time that they were changing the gearbox on Verstappen's car which was lucky for me.

 

While I was in the garage I had a chat to Jos. Max is happy, and they know they have a good car. But for them, they don't think they can win the first few races. They're holding out for a few things to come (not sure whether it's Honda or aero), but the important thing is to make a good start. They will be happy with podiums or even top 4 finishes which is a change of approach from last year where what happened to Max was out of frustration Jos said. We spoke a little more about Max's driving style etc and he won't be changing anytime soon, and neither should he. Jos was great to talk to and he gave me the time as well which was really nice of him.

Two side notes, the gearbox on the Red Bull had an oil leak which they couldn't spot from the outside. The gearbox had done 2300km which i guess is about half what it is required to do so they weren't too happy but that's testing. Second note, there were chances to go in the Racing Point garage who gave further access above Red Bull to the team radio for the drivers. You have to laugh that Autosport put Force India above McLaren in their rankings when Perez said he could keep up with Kimi during a race stint unless he used DRS. That's how far behind they are.

[alframsey]

That's fair enough, as Max is indeed an experienced F1 driver now, but as we all know competing for and winning championships is as much about the car as it is about the driver, and arguably even much more so (a recent study suggested race results in F1 were determined for 84% by the car, and only 16% by driver skill).

 

While we won't know whether Max himself is up to the challenge 100% until he's been under pressure of competing for a championship I think it's fair to see most F1 followers would by now, at the start of his fifth F1 campaign, have Max down as one of the sport's top performers and probably capable of at least challenging for titles if given the chance, i.e. a championship capable car. The Red Bull of the past three years was a very good car, but the total package wasn't good enough to compete for race wins consistently and that's what you need if you ultimately want to challenge for titles, and 2015's Toro Rosso certainly wasn't.

 

Let's also not forget Max came into the sport as a 16 year old with many ex and current F1 drivers openly questioning his readiness and ability to compete at this level, and whilst he's sometimes shown immaturity in the way he's handled certain situations there is little doubt anymore about his F1 credentials I would have thought. Give him a car capable of competing for titles and he has the skill to make the most of it, even if he's mentally not yet entirely proven, in the same way as nobody who's never been in that situation of having such a car has ever conclusively proven to be ready.

Considering how good he is now, at such a young age, it will be wonderful to watch him when he is at the stage of his career Lewis currently is. The lad is truly exceptional.

[CPR]

I don't want to name drop or pretend I'm some kind of insider, but when I was at the test I paid for the opportunity to go inside the Red Bull garage on Day 6 at about 3:30. It was right at the time that they were changing the gearbox on Verstappen's car which was lucky for me.

 

While I was in the garage I had a chat to Jos. Max is happy, and they know they have a good car. But for them, they don't think they can win the first few races. They're holding out for a few things to come (not sure whether it's Honda or aero), but the important thing is to make a good start. They will be happy with podiums or even top 4 finishes which is a change of approach from last year where what happened to Max was out of frustration Jos said. We spoke a little more about Max's driving style etc and he won't be changing anytime soon, and neither should he. Jos was great to talk to and he gave me the time as well which was really nice of him.

Two side notes, the gearbox on the Red Bull had an oil leak which they couldn't spot from the outside. The gearbox had done 2300km which i guess is about half what it is required to do so they weren't too happy but that's testing. Second note, there were chances to go in the Racing Point garage who gave further access above Red Bull to the team radio for the drivers. You have to laugh that Autosport put Force India above McLaren in their rankings when Perez said he could keep up with Kimi during a race stint unless he used DRS. That's how far behind they are.

 

Thanks for this, and your other posts - much appreciated.

 

Regarding RB, yeah that was the general feeling I got from the raw numbers, limited that they were. I don't get the sense that the journalists realise this though.

 

Regarding RP, ditto, sort-of. Their real 2019 package is supposedly due in Melbourne but unless it's huge and they can get it working quickly I don't see it making that much of a difference immediately. And other teams aren't staying still either. I'm not writing them off but they might struggle to catch up, depending on various factors.

[CPR]

Very comprehensive summary of testing data:
https://soymotor.com...ora-roja-961106
 
I've been reading it through Google Translate but they seem to have tried their best to make proper use of all the available data.
 
They also have an interesting list of race sims:

 
They also have a "tyre corrected" quali sim table, but it seems that they've looked at all tyres. Not surprised to see the C3 tyre as generally giving the fastest lap as it should be the quali tyre at the Spanish GP:

[Marklar]

AMuS published a long run analysis. Here a summary, most of it is known by now I assume

-the margin of error is at around 7 tenths depending on which engine mode and fuel load was used, as mentioned race sims are less represantive this year than in the past
-teams can usually assume the fuel load based on best/worst case scenarios on the GPS (a quick final sector for example indicates less fuel), something journalists cant.
-Leclerc had the quickest race sim, 12 seconds ahead of Ricciardo, 19 ahead of Bottas, but he used 3 C2 tyres (using a different tyre in the first stint costed Bottas alone 9 seconds) and the last stint was approached in a way he wouldnt have approached it in reality. Keep in mind that Bottas/Leclerc did real race sims, Ricciardo went into the garage every time. While in theory this could mean that the stint is not representative (refuelling, setup changes etc) Mercedes was very impressed by Renault.
-Vettel and Hamilton are four tenths apart, but very hard to compare (Hamilton did a 4 stop race on three different compounds, something Vettel did in the first week as well)
-Red Bull is not appearing impressive which is weird considering that Verstappen looks confident (and he is usually a bad actor). His first stint was between Ferrari and Merc, his 2nd stint 0.2 s behind Bottas and 0.7 s behind Leclerc.
-Magnussen's race sim was great on the C2 tyres. 2nd stint was 0.2s off Leclerc and the final stint was fantastic. Car struggles with softer tyres though (see 1st stint) and team admits this as well. Steiner promises to improve and they have to since Melbourne will mostly be on C3/4.
-The soft tyres could generally be a issue this year, the C3 tyre is already having a lot deg in Barcelona. As always Red Bull seems the best on the tyres, while it appears like Mercedes has better tyre management than Ferrari this year. It seems like Ferrari prefered to have a quick car with which you can build a gap at the beginning and then just defend your lead.
-On long runs Alfa cant keep up with Renault and Haas. Toro Rosso is hard to judge. The first race sim was slower than McLaren, the second was the 2nd best but it was stopped after 36 laps. The truth is most likely somewhere between those two.
-Force India is better over the race distance than over one lap, but still 6 seconds shy of Alfa. McLaren improved in Week 2 but is in the race sim 20 seconds behind Alfa.
-Williams is disastrous. Over 4 minutes behind Leclerc, would have been lapped twice.

https://www.auto-mot...rennsimulation/

Edited by Marklar, 05 March 2019 - 23:47.

[PlayboyRacer]

The predictions for Williams are dire. I'm starting to think they are, in reality, in for a world of pain.

[Jovanotti]

Haas won't be almost as fast as Mercedes and Ferrari, neither over one lap nor over a race distance. Just won't happen, regardless of how good that race simulation was.

[7MGTEsup]

Haas won't be almost as fast as Mercedes and Ferrari, neither over one lap nor over a race distance. Just won't happen, regardless of how good that race simulation was.

 

Wasn't Haas placed above Ferrari after last years testing?

 

I'm looking forward to the first race hoping there has been a decent amount of mixing up of the field but I get the feeling it will back to business as usual with not much of a change.

[Ali623]

Was looking at some of the thoughts from testing last year. Quite similar to this year actually, the main difference being Mercedes was looking like the outright strongest rather than Ferrari.

Haas were looking really strong though, posting especially fast single lap times

Renault seemed to have made a jump towards the top 3 as well

Red Bull were expected to be closer than ever but still behind Merc, Ferrari similar pace to RB

Sauber slowest

Midfield close and maybe closer to the front


Especially in Melbourne, most of this played out as expected, Merc were strongest, Haas topped the midfield ect

However the midfield was still as far away from the top 3 as the previous year so I expect the same again this year

Also interestingly, people didn’t seem to predict the awful season Williams would have, many expecting them to be in the same position they were in 2017

[ScottMB]

Loving the tables of times and graphical analysis; hard to argue with statistics.  That said, I'll give you my thoughts from standing in all corners over the four days of the second F1 winter test at the Circuit de Barcelona.  I learned a few things that stats won't show.

 

Firstly - Have a look here for the snaps I took over the second test days.  See if you can spot one of the broken T-wing designs on the Mercedes. http://www.scottmbailey.com 

 

Things became very interesting on Friday 1st March later in the afternoon when Lewis came out on the C4 and then C5 softest compound tyres.  It wasn't neccesarly the times he did, but watching him barrel into turn 1, 2 and fire up into turn 3 that made me realise I was watching the fastest car of winter testing.  Yes, I have Mercedes as best, not Ferrari.  Take with a pinch of salt the rhetoric from the Brackley team about Ferrari being ahead.  The W10 looks easily like a race winning car to me.  What did impress me was the evolution of the Merc over the four days of testing.  This was a new thing for me to witness, how Mercedes ended the final day with a car that looked much different in handling and speed than the one I saw on the 26th Feb.  I felt like I'd watched half a season of development - let alone four days! The other teams really need to up their game to stop Lewis getting #6 if Mercedes can evolve at this amazing rate.  Valterri Bottas was very ragged on the softest tyres, and messed up his laps in the final slower 14 & 15 left/right turns on the final Friday.  Maybe he's just a bit rusty.

Ferrari are next best.  I was very impressed with Charles Leclerc's consistency and down-right speed. Easily the last of the late brakers into Turn 10, and hit the apex every time of one of his long runs.  Some unreliability obviously didn't help the Scuderia, but they definitely had the fastest car out-the-box, but how much faster can it get?  A race winning car for sure; and both Seb and Charles looked like they know they will be fighting for victory in Australia (along with Lewis.)

Red Bull obviously had a great winter test.  No denying the RB15 has inhereted the awesome handling of its predecessor, and the Honda engine pushes it along in a more than competent way.  There was quite a bit of paddock chatter that Red Bull could be winning with Honda sooner than expected.  I'd say, don't get carried away.  The reason I say this is the fact that both Max and Pierre looked like they had to work right up to the maximum of the cars potential to get the lap times; I got the feeling Ferrari and Mercedes-AMG had some speed in reserve.  Max exploits the Circuit de Barcelona's track limits every time he gets in the car, and so is always very fast.  The Red Bull rides the big kurbs better than any other car - so why not take a liitle cut of the corners if you can get away with it!  Just bare that in mind if you are looking at lap times alone.

The best of the rest is then Renault, Alfa-Romeo, McLaren, Haas, Toro Rosso, Racing Point and finally poor old Williams.  I'll elaborate more on that in a blog post (when I have time), but if Renault turn their engine 'fully up' then they could be biting at Red Bull's coat tails.  

[Matthew22]

Loving the tables of times and graphical analysis; hard to argue with statistics. That said, I'll give you my thoughts from standing in all corners over the four days of the second F1 winter test at the Circuit de Barcelona. I learned a few things that stats won't show.

Firstly - Have a look here for the snaps I took over the second test days. See if you can spot one of the broken T-wing designs on the Mercedes. http://www.scottmbailey.com

Things became very interesting on Friday 1st March later in the afternoon when Lewis came out on the C4 and then C5 softest compound tyres. It wasn't neccesarly the times he did, but watching him barrel into turn 1, 2 and fire up into turn 3 that made me realise I was watching the fastest car of winter testing. Yes, I have Mercedes as best, not Ferrari. Take with a pinch of salt the rhetoric from the Brackley team about Ferrari being ahead. The W10 looks easily like a race winning car to me. What did impress me was the evolution of the Merc over the four days of testing. This was a new thing for me to witness, how Mercedes ended the final day with a car that looked much different in handling and speed than the one I saw on the 26th Feb. I felt like I'd watched half a season of development - let alone four days! The other teams really need to up their game to stop Lewis getting #6 if Mercedes can evolve at this amazing rate. Valterri Bottas was very ragged on the softest tyres, and messed up his laps in the final slower 14 & 15 left/right turns on the final Friday. Maybe he's just a bit rusty.
Ferrari are next best. I was very impressed with Charles Leclerc's consistency and down-right speed. Easily the last of the late brakers into Turn 10, and hit the apex every time of one of his long runs. Some unreliability obviously didn't help the Scuderia, but they definitely had the fastest car out-the-box, but how much faster can it get? A race winning car for sure; and both Seb and Charles looked like they know they will be fighting for victory in Australia (along with Lewis.)
Red Bull obviously had a great winter test. No denying the RB15 has inhereted the awesome handling of its predecessor, and the Honda engine pushes it along in a more than competent way. There was quite a bit of paddock chatter that Red Bull could be winning with Honda sooner than expected. I'd say, don't get carried away. The reason I say this is the fact that both Max and Pierre looked like they had to work right up to the maximum of the cars potential to get the lap times; I got the feeling Ferrari and Mercedes-AMG had some speed in reserve. Max exploits the Circuit de Barcelona's track limits every time he gets in the car, and so is always very fast. The Red Bull rides the big kurbs better than any other car - so why not take a liitle cut of the corners if you can get away with it! Just bare that in mind if you are looking at lap times alone.
The best of the rest is then Renault, Alfa-Romeo, McLaren, Haas, Toro Rosso, Racing Point and finally poor old Williams. I'll elaborate more on that in a blog post (when I have time), but if Renault turn their engine 'fully up' then they could be biting at Red Bull's coat tails.

Interesting thoughts. I was there for all 8 days and I saw things a little bit different. For me, everything with the Ferrari was immediate. The change of direction was immediate, they were on the power earlier and harder than anyone, ainto the tight left hander after the second sector line at turn 10, the nose went in a lot better than the Mercedes on their resrespective long runs as you rightly pointed out. I don't buy that the merc is very far behind, in fact I expect them to be close to a tenth behind. But the Ferrari definitely stood out as the best car (to me). It looked like it was always light with fuel, even though it wasn't.

Edited by Matthew22, 10 March 2019 - 21:29.

[F1Lurker]

Loving the tables of times and graphical analysis; hard to argue with statistics.  That said, I'll give you my thoughts from standing in all corners over the four days of the second F1 winter test at the Circuit de Barcelona.  I learned a few things that stats won't show.

 

Firstly - Have a look here for the snaps I took over the second test days.  See if you can spot one of the broken T-wing designs on the Mercedes. http://www.scottmbailey.com 

 

Things became very interesting on Friday 1st March later in the afternoon when Lewis came out on the C4 and then C5 softest compound tyres.  It wasn't neccesarly the times he did, but watching him barrel into turn 1, 2 and fire up into turn 3 that made me realise I was watching the fastest car of winter testing.  Yes, I have Mercedes as best, not Ferrari.  Take with a pinch of salt the rhetoric from the Brackley team about Ferrari being ahead.  The W10 looks easily like a race winning car to me.  What did impress me was the evolution of the Merc over the four days of testing.  This was a new thing for me to witness, how Mercedes ended the final day with a car that looked much different in handling and speed than the one I saw on the 26th Feb.  I felt like I'd watched half a season of development - let alone four days! The other teams really need to up their game to stop Lewis getting #6 if Mercedes can evolve at this amazing rate.  Valterri Bottas was very ragged on the softest tyres, and messed up his laps in the final slower 14 & 15 left/right turns on the final Friday.  Maybe he's just a bit rusty.

Ferrari are next best.  I was very impressed with Charles Leclerc's consistency and down-right speed. Easily the last of the late brakers into Turn 10, and hit the apex every time of one of his long runs.  Some unreliability obviously didn't help the Scuderia, but they definitely had the fastest car out-the-box, but how much faster can it get?  A race winning car for sure; and both Seb and Charles looked like they know they will be fighting for victory in Australia (along with Lewis.)

Red Bull obviously had a great winter test.  No denying the RB15 has inhereted the awesome handling of its predecessor, and the Honda engine pushes it along in a more than competent way.  There was quite a bit of paddock chatter that Red Bull could be winning with Honda sooner than expected.  I'd say, don't get carried away.  The reason I say this is the fact that both Max and Pierre looked like they had to work right up to the maximum of the cars potential to get the lap times; I got the feeling Ferrari and Mercedes-AMG had some speed in reserve.  Max exploits the Circuit de Barcelona's track limits every time he gets in the car, and so is always very fast.  The Red Bull rides the big kurbs better than any other car - so why not take a liitle cut of the corners if you can get away with it!  Just bare that in mind if you are looking at lap times alone.

The best of the rest is then Renault, Alfa-Romeo, McLaren, Haas, Toro Rosso, Racing Point and finally poor old Williams.  I'll elaborate more on that in a blog post (when I have time), but if Renault turn their engine 'fully up' then they could be biting at Red Bull's coat tails.  

Interesting post. We will see in a few days if your observations are correct!

[Seanspeed]

while it appears like Mercedes has better tyre management than Ferrari this year.

Well that's no different than last year.  Mercedes were usually better on Sundays than they were on Saturdays and could make tires last much better than Ferrari.  Drastically so, at times.  

 

So that doesn't seem to be any sort of a change, just a continuation of before.  Which I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of this year.  I dont think the aero changes are big enough to create some sort of big shift in competitive order.  They're still pretty heavily based on what they were doing before.  Obviously there's still chances for surprises, but I think anybody basing their guesses on last year's competitiveness will probably get it closer than those predicting bigger changes.  

 

Renault are the ones where I'd at least *hope* can stretch out ahead a bit of the midfield.  Two excellent drivers in a car manufacturer team?  No excuse to be mired in the midfield. 

[statman]

F1Metrics 2019 preseason analysis

[Enkei]

So, that was the first qualifying. I guess some so-called journalist experts will have to reconsider 

[ARTGP]

Renault are the ones where I'd at least *hope* can stretch out ahead a bit of the midfield.  Two excellent drivers in a car manufacturer team?  No excuse to be mired in the midfield. 

 

 

Yeah well the Renault is only faster than Toro Rosso and Williams.

[sabjit]

I told you this happens every year.

 

I told you.

 

I told you.

 

I told you.

 

And some of you pointed at me and laughed     

[ConsiderAndGo]

This thread has aged well 😂😂😂

[ScottMB]

Qualifying pretty much as expected, and as noted in my post from my observations at the Circuit de Barcelona; Mercedes are still on top.

[superdelphinus]

I expect about 20 apologies in my inbox

[noriaki]

I told you this happens every year.

I told you.

I told you.

I told you.

And some of you pointed at me and laughed

But it doesn't happen every year. This was the first season on the turbo era, that the press consensus was Ferrari was gonna be quicker than Mercedes, whereas Merc was expected to be in front 2014-18 every time. There was a good review post of it by SCUDMissile if you need the proof.

Edit - post #2126

Edited by noriaki, 16 March 2019 - 08:13.

[Marklar]

Loving the tables of times and graphical analysis; hard to argue with statistics.  That said, I'll give you my thoughts from standing in all corners over the four days of the second F1 winter test at the Circuit de Barcelona.  I learned a few things that stats won't show.

 

Firstly - Have a look here for the snaps I took over the second test days.  See if you can spot one of the broken T-wing designs on the Mercedes. http://www.scottmbailey.com 

 

Things became very interesting on Friday 1st March later in the afternoon when Lewis came out on the C4 and then C5 softest compound tyres.  It wasn't neccesarly the times he did, but watching him barrel into turn 1, 2 and fire up into turn 3 that made me realise I was watching the fastest car of winter testing.  Yes, I have Mercedes as best, not Ferrari.  Take with a pinch of salt the rhetoric from the Brackley team about Ferrari being ahead.  The W10 looks easily like a race winning car to me.  What did impress me was the evolution of the Merc over the four days of testing.  This was a new thing for me to witness, how Mercedes ended the final day with a car that looked much different in handling and speed than the one I saw on the 26th Feb.  I felt like I'd watched half a season of development - let alone four days! The other teams really need to up their game to stop Lewis getting #6 if Mercedes can evolve at this amazing rate.  Valterri Bottas was very ragged on the softest tyres, and messed up his laps in the final slower 14 & 15 left/right turns on the final Friday.  Maybe he's just a bit rusty.

Ferrari are next best.  I was very impressed with Charles Leclerc's consistency and down-right speed. Easily the last of the late brakers into Turn 10, and hit the apex every time of one of his long runs.  Some unreliability obviously didn't help the Scuderia, but they definitely had the fastest car out-the-box, but how much faster can it get?  A race winning car for sure; and both Seb and Charles looked like they know they will be fighting for victory in Australia (along with Lewis.)

Red Bull obviously had a great winter test.  No denying the RB15 has inhereted the awesome handling of its predecessor, and the Honda engine pushes it along in a more than competent way.  There was quite a bit of paddock chatter that Red Bull could be winning with Honda sooner than expected.  I'd say, don't get carried away.  The reason I say this is the fact that both Max and Pierre looked like they had to work right up to the maximum of the cars potential to get the lap times; I got the feeling Ferrari and Mercedes-AMG had some speed in reserve.  Max exploits the Circuit de Barcelona's track limits every time he gets in the car, and so is always very fast.  The Red Bull rides the big kurbs better than any other car - so why not take a liitle cut of the corners if you can get away with it!  Just bare that in mind if you are looking at lap times alone.

The best of the rest is then Renault, Alfa-Romeo, McLaren, Haas, Toro Rosso, Racing Point and finally poor old Williams.  I'll elaborate more on that in a blog post (when I have time), but if Renault turn their engine 'fully up' then they could be biting at Red Bull's coat tails.  

We have a winner

[Anja]

It's gonna be the same next year, already looking forward to it 

[sabjit]

But it doesn't happen every year. This was the first season on the turbo era, that the press consensus was Ferrari was gonna be quicker than Mercedes, whereas Merc was expected to be in front 2014-18 every time. There was a good review post of it by SCUDMissile if you need the proof.

Edit - post #2126

 

Next year we will just be adding 2019 to that list. Everyone will forget.

 

 

It happens every year.

[noriaki]

Next year we will just be adding 2019 to that list. Everyone will forget.


It happens every year.

What? Read the post and the links.

This year there was a clear consensus about Ferrari being faster after testing.

On all the turbo years before, there had been a consensus that Mercedes are faster.

Sounds like it's you who has forgotten what has happened every year. Not "everyone".