50 replies to this topic

[noriaki]

Hi,

 

intrigued by discussion on the recent incident proneness of a certain top driver & distressed by some disagreements of memory on how exactly incident prone he was in the past, I decided that there ought to be solid data on this issue. Which I couldn't find anywhere on the internet. So today I chose to resolve it myself. I embarked on a historical journey through 2007 to 2019 using whatever remained in my own memory, whatever was left of Bernie's purges on Youtube, and, ehm, Wikipedia.  The aim of this quest was to find out who (of the 3 F1 drivers whose entire F1 career history I have bothered to go through so far (=Verstappen, Hamilton, Vettel)) has *actually* been the most incident prone, and on which season. 

 

So what counts as an "inciden"t, then? Well, it is a very good question, and the definition is bound to cause some disagreement. I have gone with my definition, but I fully accept that yours may be different. In any case, in my books, there are six different types of race-ruining disasters that can happen due to driver error, and four of them should count as incidents that are one's own fault to determine the incident proneness.

 

1) Crash. When you crash alone in a) race, b) qualifying, or c) free practise in a manner it compromizes the rest of your weekend (Max at Monaco last year being a prime example of this) without having a very solid excuse. Or when you crash with another driver in an incident, where most of the blame can clearly be attributed to you. 

2) Collision with another driver. Reserved for those fifty-fifty, eighty-twenty, half guilty half racing incidents, where you were (in my opinion) not *clearly* to blame, usually didn't receive a penalty, but where, in hindsight,you could have avoided the incident with reasonable measures had you been more careful or driven more smartly. (Hamilton/Button 2011 at Montreal / Spa 2016 with Verstappen, Raikkonen and Vettel where both parties would get a "collision" but neither a "crash". Conversely, Vettel would get a "collision" for Brazil 2012 whereas Senna would get a "crash".)

3) Spin. When you have a spin in a race entirely on your own. 

4) Mistake. When you run wide in the race and lose a position as a consequence (Vettel 2019, Montreal for example), or when you run out of track in qualifying in a manner that clearly compromizes your start position (Hamilton 2014, Austria for example)

---

5) Others. Where a penalty was handed out to you because of your error but where there was no crash, collision spin or a mistake. In other words - impeding, speeding, cutting the track, ignoring flags, leaving the track and so on, however (obviously) no penalties that were given out for technical reasons were counted. One could reasonably argue that these should be counted with categories 1-4, as breaking the rules is a major mistake as well, but I have decided to count these as a separate category, solely because of the inconsistency of the stewards on certain matters. Such as forcing another driver off the track which has only been handed out on the whim of a steward basically. 

---

6) Events where you are not to blame yourself. I did not count these as incidents that should be added on your tally. (Spa 2012 for starters. Grosjean would get a "crash" and all others who get collected won't have it counted. Another example, Shanghai 2018 - Verstappen gets a "crash", Vettel gets nothing. Crashes caused by blown tires or failing brakes, or other circumstances out of a driver's control that made the collision or the cras unavoidable.)

 

In addition to this, I have specified if an incident was "race ending" or "first lap".

 

I hope I could make myself understood!

 

Naturally, the list is bound to include errors. Some incidents are will certainly spark discussion whether there was fault. I will fully admit I haven't re-reviewed them all, and on some of them I went by the steward decision alone to count them as incidents. Hence any of the drivers may have a few incidents that should have counted but haven't because I deemed them not at fault (or most likely, didn't see them/forgot) and a few incidents that should not have counted on their "tally". On any of the incidents, I welcome any remarks, opinions, or reminders about some incidents to improve the list. However, I don't think the incompleteness should spoil the "grand picture" so I'm ready to present the fruits of my "research" already. 

 

Ladies, gentlemen, here it is in all its glory - How Many Incidents These Guys Had Annually:

 

 

https://i.ibb.co/NT4...ad-Annually.png (if the picture isn't visible)

 

*Vettel's 2007 and 2019 incidents have counted double because he has only competed around 50% of the races

 

AVG Starting Position

2007: Vettel 14.4 | Hamilton 2.6

2008: Vettel 11.0 | Hamilton 3.9

2009: Vettel 4.4 | Hamilton 9.3

2010: Vettel 1.9 | Hamilton 5.2

2011: Vettel 1.3 | Hamilton 3.6

2012: Vettel 5.0 | Hamilton 4.3

2013: Vettel 2.1 | Hamilton 3.5

2014: Vettel 7.8 | Hamilton 4.2

2015: Vettel 5.3 | Hamilton 1.6 | Verstappen 11.4

2016: Vettel 6.2 | Hamilton 4.1 | Verstappen 6.0

2017: Vettel 3.1 | Hamilton 3.6 | Verstappen 6.1

2018: Vettel 2.9 | Hamilton 2.7 | Verstappen 7.1

2019: Vettel 4.1 | Hamilton 2.0 | Verstappen 4.4

 

Vettel's data

2007 Italian GP Race Collision (Davidson)
2007 Japanese GP Race Race ending crash (Webber) 
2008 Australian GP Race Race ending first lap collision (Webber, Button, Davidson)
2008 Bahrain GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Sutil)
2008 Turkish GP Race First lap collision (Sutil) 
2008 Canadian GP Practice Crash
2008 British GP Race Race ending first lap collision (Coulthard)
2009 Australian GP Race Race ending crash (Kubica)
2009 Malaysian GP Race Race ending spin
2009 Monaco GP Race Race ending accident
2009 Turkish GP Race First lap mistake
2009 Hungarian GP Race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2009 Brazilian GP Race First lap collision (Kovalainen)
2010 Turkish GP Race Race ending crash (Webber) 
2010 Belgian GP Race Crash (Button)
2010 Italian GP Qualifying Mistake
2011 Canadian GP Race Mistake
2011 German GP Race Spin 
2011 Hungarian GP Race Mistake
2012 Malaysian GP Race Collision (Karthikeyan)
2012 Abu Dhabi GP Race Collision (Senna)
2012 Abu Dhabi GP Race Mistake (Ricciardo)
2012 Brazilian GP Race First lap collision (Senna)
2014 Austrian GP Race Collision (Gutierrez)
2014 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2014 Belgian GP Race Mistake
2015 Bahrain GP Race Mistake
2015 Mexican GP Race Collision (Ricciardo)
2015 Mexican GP Race Spin 
2015 Mexican GP Race Race ending crash
2015 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Mistake
2016 Chinese GP Race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2016 Malaysian GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Rosberg)
2016 Belgian GP Race First lap collision (Verstappen, Raikkonen)
2017 Baku GP Race Crash (Hamilton)
2017 Canadian GP Race First lap collision (Verstappen)
2017 Singapore GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Verstappen, Raikkonen)
2017 Malaysian GP Post race Collision (Stroll)
2017 Mexican GP Race First lap crash (Hamilton)
2018 Baku GP Race Mistake
2018 French GP Race First lap crash (Bottas)
2018 German GP Race Race ending crash
2018 Italian GP Race First lap crash (Hamilton)
2018 Japanese GP Qualifying Mistake
2018 Japanese GP Race Collision (Verstappen)
2018 United States GP Race First lap spin
2019 Bahrain GP Race Mistake
2019 Canadian GP Race Mistake
2019 British GP Race Crash (Verstappen)
2019 Italian GP Race Crash (Stroll)
 
2009 Singapore GP Race Speeding in the pitlane
2010 Hungarian GP Race Failing to stay within 10 car lengths of the safety car
2012 German GP Race Overtaking illegally (Button)
2012 Italian GP Race Forcing another driver off track (Alonso)
2015 Canadian GP Practice Overtaking under red flags (Merhi)
2016 British GP Race Forcing another driver off track (Massa)
2016 Mexican GP Race Driving dangerously (Ricciardo)
2018 Austrian GP Race Impeding (Sainz)

Hamilton's data

year gp session incident type
2007 European GP Race Mistake
2007 Chinese GP Race Race ending crash
2008 Bahrain GP Race Crash (Alonso)
2008 Canadian GP Race Race ending crash
2008 Belgian GP Race Mistake (Hamilton)
2009 Monaco GP Qualifying Crash  
2009 British GP Race Mistake
2009 German GP Race First lap collision (Webber)
2009 Italian GP Race Race ending crash
2010 Australian GP Race Collision (Massa)
2010 Italian GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Massa)
2010 Singapore GP Race Race ending collision (Webber)
2011 Australian GP Race Mistake
2011 Malaysian GP Race Collision (Alonso)
2011 Monaco GP Qualifying Mistake
2011 Monaco GP Race Collision (Massa)
2011 Monaco GP Race Crash (Maldonado)
2011 Canadian GP Race Crash (Webber)
2011 Canadian GP Race Race ending collision (Button)
2011 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2011 Belgian GP Race Race ending crash (Kobayashi)
2011 Singapore GP Race Crash (Massa)
2011 Japanese GP Race Collision (Massa)
2011 Indian GP Race Collision (Massa)
2012 European GP Race Collision (Maldonado)
2013 Brazilian GP Race Crash (Bottas)
2014 Austrian GP Qualifying Mistake
2014 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2014 Belgian GP Race Collision (Rosberg)
2015 Hungarian GP Race First lap mistake
2015 Hungarian GP Race Collision (Ricciardo)
2016 Spanish GP Race Collision (Rosberg)
2016 Baku GP Qualifying Crash
2017 Brazilian GP Qualifying Crash
2018 German GP Qualifying Mistake
2019 German GP Race Crash
2019 German GP Race Spin
2019 Belgian GP Practise Crash
2019 Italian GP Race Mistake
 
2008 Malaysian GP Qualifying Impeding (Heidfeld, Alonso)
2008 French GP Race Cutting a corner (Vettel)
2008 Belgian GP Race Gaining an advantage off the track (Raikkonen)
2008 Japanese GP Race Forcing another driver off the track (Raikkonen)
2009 Australian GP Race Lying to the stewards
2011 Hungarian GP Race Forcing another driver off the track (di Resta)
2011 Indian GP Practise Disobeying yellow flags

Verstappen's data

2015 Monaco GP race Race ending crash (Grosjean)
2015 British GP race Race ending spin
2016 Australian GP race Collision (Sainz)
2016 Monaco GP qualifying Crash
2016 Monaco GP race Crash
2016 Baku GP race Mistake
2016 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Vettel, Raikkonen)
2016 Belgian GP race First lap mistake
2017 Spanish GP race Race ending first lap collision (Bottas, Raikkonen)
2017 Hungarian GP race First lap crash (Ricciardo)
2018 Australian GP race Mistake
2018 Australian GP race Spin
2018 Bahrain GP race Collision (Hamilton)
2018 Chinese GP race Mistake
2018 Chinese GP race Crash (Vettel)
2018 Baku GP race Collision (Ricciardo)
2018 Monaco GP practise Crash
2018 Italian GP race Crash (Bottas)
2018 Brazilian GP race Collision (Ocon)
2019 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2019 Italian GP race First lap crash (Perez)

2015 Hungarian GP race Speeding under SC
2015 Japanese GP race Stopping on the racing line
2015 Abu Dhabi GP race Leaving the track and gaining an advantage
2015 Abu Dhabi GP race Ignoring blue flags
2016 Mexican GP race Cutting the track (Vettel)
2017 United States GP race Cutting the track (Raikkonen) 
2018 Japanese GP race Forcing another driver off track (Raikkonen)

Edited by noriaki, 18 September 2019 - 17:15.

[Marklar]

 

 

Edit: bloody forum... I hope the data doesn't break your screens lol

Too late

[Ivanhoe]

At first glimpse Lewis, Seb and Mac very comparable in the first years of their career as it comes to crashes.

[Imperial]

Surely any fair comparison needs to be made over the exact same time period for all the drivers you are comparing.

[Myrvold]

Use code, not spoiler.

[Ivanhoe]

Surely any fair comparison needs to be made over the exact same time period for all the drivers you are comparing.

So comparing Verstappen with Hamilton and Vettel over the period 2015-2019 would be fair? You’d also have to take the different phases of their career and experience in car racing into account.

Edited by Ivanhoe, 18 July 2019 - 18:49.

[P123]

Good stuff... although just trying to get my head around the criteria. I think collision would be best kept for just that- the one's where the driver keeps going and keep 'crash' for race ending incidents that are the fault of the driver. Collisions/ crashes which are deemed to be the another driver's fault by the stewards shouldn't be included.

[noriaki]

Good stuff... although just trying to get my head around the criteria. I think collision would be best kept for just that- the one's where the driver keeps going and keep 'crash' for race ending incidents that are the fault of the driver. Collisions/ crashes which are deemed to be the another driver's fault by the stewards shouldn't be included.

 

I do see your point but then again, I find there is also skill involved in not getting caught up in "racing incidents". Max at Brazil 2018 prime example of that. And I would like to illustrate that skill as well. 

 

Besides, whether a crash ends a race or not is very often not related to the "size" of the error. Vettel and Verstappen both somehow managed to keep going after the high speed crash at Silverstone 2019, but I feel it would be silly to call that just a "collision". Whereas Hamilton had his race ended by a very minor clip with Webber @ Germany 2009 and it was more Lewis' own fault, yet unfortunately that ended Lewis' race - that's hardly a crash in my books. 

 

So comparing Verstappen with Hamilton and Vettel over the period 2015-2019 would be fair? You’d also have to take the different phases of their career and experience in car racing into account.

 

Indeed, and you can easily compare Verstappen's incident rate development with Lewis/Vettel "fairly" by just "moving" the VES graph to 2007-2011

 

 

Use code, not spoiler.

 

Not working. Not that tech-savvy. Will make another attempt to make it readable tomorrow.

Edited by noriaki, 18 July 2019 - 21:33.

[PlatenGlass]

Interesting data, but I was hoping for some sort of interpretation of the data - a conclusion!

[Imperial]

So comparing Verstappen with Hamilton and Vettel over the period 2015-2019 would be fair? You’d also have to take the different phases of their career and experience in car racing into account.

Exactly. And that would only be scratching the surface.

[noriaki]

Interesting data, but I was hoping for some sort of interpretation of the data - a conclusion!

 

Discounting the anomalic 2011 for Hamilton, the trend for 2007 to 2014 was that Vettel was just slightly more incident prone than him. Both Vettel and Hamilton had their incident rates reduced to very little by 2013 and 2014.

 

The difference is that Hamilton's incident rates remained on the very low levels through 2015 until now, but in contrast, Vettel's incident rate has rocketed up at Ferrari.

 

As for Max, he has long clean streaks and his incidents seem to come in bunches. In total, in their first 91 races, I count that all of Hamilton, Verstappen and Vettel had slightly over 20 incidents.

Edited by noriaki, 19 July 2019 - 14:00.

[Requiem84]

I would feel that higher average starting positions significantly decrease the risk at incidents.

Would it be possible to link average starting position to number of incidents per year per driver?

[zanquis]

It seems to me some instances you count double.
For instance
2016 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Vettel, Raikkonen)
2016 Belgian GP race First lap mistake

And
2018 Australian GP race Mistake
2018 Australian GP race Spin

Anything positions that Max lost in that first lap of Belgium where a direct result of that first incident. In Australia, I know of his spin and the Alonso incident, but he didn’t lose anything because of that, it was just a close call between who had to be in front and they sorted it out before any penalty was needed. (In hindsight he would have been better of with a Penalty and just outracing Alonso)

2016 Brazilian GP race Mistake

What mistake? His moment on the straight? Where he lost only a bit of time but held on to his position.

2018 Bahrain qualifying crash

The official position was not a driver error, you can chose not to believe it but for yourself but to be bias free u should go by official statements.

I think U forgot his penalty in 2018 Japan for running Kimi wide despite overcomming it on track. I think it qualifies more than any of the 4 other points you did count

Those I can just say from memory, would have to review other drivers

Edited by zanquis, 19 July 2019 - 18:18.

[CountDooku]

Ramming into Hamilton in Monaco 2019 seems to be missing from Max’s list?

What’s clear to me here is that if you have a fast car you make less mistakes. It’s why Hamilton’s 2012-13 and Max’s 2019 runs are so great.

[zanquis]

Ramming into Hamilton in Monaco 2019 seems to be missing from Max’s list?

What’s clear to me here is that if you have a fast car you make less mistakes. It’s why Hamilton’s 2012-13 and Max’s 2019 runs are so great.

But then it should be also part of Hamilton’s list as Hamilton cause Verstappen to have to go on the dirty part of the track, have a longer braking distance and in such risking the contact that Lewis in 2018 told Verstappen to avoid after the Ocon incident. Don’t get me wrong, it was hugely Max fault, but like it or not, if you are unbiased you must admit that Lewis had a share in it also.

[noriaki]

It seems to me some instances you count double.
For instance
2016 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Vettel, Raikkonen)
2016 Belgian GP race First lap mistake

Anything positions that Max lost in that first lap where a direct result of that first incident.

2016 Brazilian GP race Mistake

What mistake? His moment on the straight? Where he lost only a bit of time but held on to his position.

2018 Bahrain qualifying crash

The official position was not a driver error, you can chose not to believe it but for yourself but to be bias free u should go by official statements.

I think U forgot his penalty in 2018 Japan for running Kimi wide despite overcomming it on track. I think it qualifies more than any of the 3 other points you did count

Those I can just say from memory, would have to review other drivers

 

Spa: I didn't think it was a direct result, he was pretty reckless there on the first lap

Interlagos: You're right.   I had had it in my head that Max lost a few positions due to this error and thus didn't review it. 

Bahrain: https://www.motorspo...025552/3011488/ ? 

 

Japan: You're right again, thanks. It had slipped my mind. 

 

 

I would feel that higher average starting positions significantly decrease the risk at incidents.

Would it be possible to link average starting position to number of incidents per year per driver?

 

Done, it's below the graph for now. I will try to improve the graph's visuals and put them there too in due time, but first, am planning to review at least all Champions that started racing in the noughties and add their incidents on the same picture too.

 

 

Ramming into Hamilton in Monaco 2019 seems to be missing from Max’s list?

What’s clear to me here is that if you have a fast car you make less mistakes. It’s why Hamilton’s 2012-13 and Max’s 2019 runs are so great.

 

That incident could indeed have ended worse but I decided I am not counting the "close calls" at Monaco because many overtaking attempts there end up in wheels getting banged and chicanes cut. Most of the overtake attempts there produce quite plenty of similar contacts where both can continue anyway. 

 

Besides, if I started adding them, then incidents like Lewis @Silverstone 2011 with Massa ought to be added too.

Edited by noriaki, 19 July 2019 - 18:30.

[zanquis]

Spa: I didn't think it was a direct result, he was pretty reckless there on the first lap
Interlagos: You're right. I had had it in my head that Max lost a few positions due to this error and thus didn't review it.
Bahrain: https://www.motorspo...025552/3011488/ ?

Japan: You're right again, thanks. It had slipped my mind.

Belgium: he had to do a whole lap with a damaged front wing, even on his most reckless driving without such damage he would not go wide that much and that often. It was 100% result of driving as fast as possible with a damaged car. Those are definitly linked and countinf them seperate is unfair.

Bahrain: My browser won’t get me an English site with Horner from literally the day after saying he was misquoted (remember all those 13 April articles just copy each other) sting it was NOT Max fault but a software errror. And since 14 April 2018 is the official standpoint, so scrap it off the list please.

Also what is your position again if you get knocked around by another driver and the other driver gets full blame for the incident?

Edited by zanquis, 19 July 2019 - 19:18.

[noriaki]

Belgium: he had to do a whole lap with a damaged front wing, even on his most reckless driving without such damage he would not go wide that much and that often. It was 100% result of driving as fast as possible with a damaged car. Those are definitly linked and countinf them seperate is unfair.

Bahrain: My browser won’t get me an English site with Horner from literally the day after saying he was misquoted (remember all those 13 April articles just copy each other) sting it was NOT Max fault but a software errror. And since 14 April 2018 is the official standpoint, so scrap it off the list please.

Also what is your position again if you get knocked around by another driver and the other driver gets full blame for the incident?

 

Belgium: I will keep my stance that the damaged front wing is not a good enough excuse as he was aware of it and could have driven slower. 

 

Bahrain: If you can link me even a Dutch language link to an official statement, then I will re-consider it. But cannot find one myself so it's on you to prove it

 

My position re getting knocked around: Well it's borderline here again and there will never be a definition that satisfies everyone. Myself I drew a line "where the incident could have been avoided with reasonably careful driving". Now I will presume you are referring to Interlagos last year: So I consider that incident Ocon's fault 100% because he was a lap down, but still, Max could also have avoided the incident by giving him more space, so he also gets a Collision. Silverstone 2019 was not a collision for him though as I figured Max kept his line under braking and hence couldn't reasonably have done anything differently to avoid getting crashed from behind. 

 

---

 

Another interesting stat: First lap incidents Vettel 17; Hamilton 3; Verstappen 4

[CountDooku]

But then it should be also part of Hamilton’s list as Hamilton cause Verstappen to have to go on the dirty part of the track, have a longer braking distance and in such risking the contact that Lewis in 2018 told Verstappen to avoid after the Ocon incident. Don’t get me wrong, it was hugely Max fault, but like it or not, if you are unbiased you must admit that Lewis had a share in it also.

Wow, this is the first time I have heard of being rammed from the back as the driver in fronts fault cos they put the other driver on the dirty line! Seb at least has a good excuse for last week now.

[Marklar]

This only goes till 2015, but it might be interesting for some https://forums.autos...nado/?p=7426191

Edited by Marklar, 19 July 2019 - 20:18.

[RacingGreen]

Interesting data, but I was hoping for some sort of interpretation of the data - a conclusion!

 

The conclusions I get from that data are;

• As you gain experience you get better at avoiding things, (which is not an earth shattering insight I admit), ^#
• That Toto W and Christian H are better at taking the pressure off drivers, and therefore causing the incident rate to decrease, than the management at a a certain Italian based team that shall remain nameless for fear that it's fanatic fans (or Tifosi) will take offence. What's really interesting about this is that (OK I'll say the name) Ferrari give one driver No1 status to make their life easier and use team orders regularly yet still manage to heap pressure on the driver  *  

and finally 

• Sometimes even the best drivers (as these three are) get tangled up in incidents that are not their own fault as you can't avoid everything,

Notes

^#  It would be interesting to see if this is true for other drivers with more than five or six years experience (eg Perez, Grosjean, Bottas, Hulkenberg or Ricciardo.) or even from past drivers with longer careers.

*  This could be checked by looking at other Ferrari No 1 driver's data where the firm is going through a lean championship period, such as Alonso. 

[Garndell]

But then it should be also part of Hamilton’s list as Hamilton cause Verstappen to have to go on the dirty part of the track, have a longer braking distance and in such risking the contact that Lewis in 2018 told Verstappen to avoid after the Ocon incident. Don’t get me wrong, it was hugely Max fault, but like it or not, if you are unbiased you must admit that Lewis had a share in it also.

 

Using that kind of logic you can apportion part of the blame for the British GP 2019 incident between Seb & Max as partly Max's fault, after all he left a snifter of a gap and "baited" Seb into it .  Your argument is also a name for a type of Limo, a stretch.  The argument you put forth is derived from a biased position and has no merit.

[RekF1]

Bloody hell. Max is nearing his 100th race

[zanquis]

Wow, this is the first time I have heard of being rammed from the back as the driver in fronts fault cos they put the other driver on the dirty line! Seb at least has a good excuse for last week now.

  

Using that kind of logic you can apportion part of the blame for the British GP 2019 incident between Seb & Max as partly Max's fault, after all he left a snifter of a gap and "baited" Seb into it .  Your argument is also a name for a type of Limo, a stretch.  The argument you put forth is derived from a biased position and has no merit.

K since you both try to twist it into something impossible.

Verstappen had to move to the dirty side to avoid being behind Lewis and doing exactly what Seb did to Max.
It in no way justifies actions of Seb as Max did the complete opposite of what Seb did. And where Lewis moved to the middle, Max actually moved to the side away from the middle.

If the situation was reversed we would have had a 100 page thread about Verstappen moving in the braking zone.
Verstappen came from far but because Lewis moving to the middle he had no choice but move all the way to the left. To prevent him from hitting Hamilton seriously hard in the gearbox.

And tbh this is also the first time I see a race leader be knocked around by a lapped car and here it is pit down as Max fault despite the fact that Ocon got the obvious penalty.

[zanquis]

Belgium: I will keep my stance that the damaged front wing is not a good enough excuse as he was aware of it and could have driven slower.

Bahrain: If you can link me even a Dutch language link to an official statement, then I will re-consider it. But cannot find one myself so it's on you to prove it

---

Another interesting stat: First lap incidents Vettel 17; Hamilton 3; Verstappen 4

Belgium: What would that driving slower to accomodate for a damaged wing have brought him? That he would be dead last before entering the pits instead of near last as he was now.

Did he crash or collide with anyone after the Vettel initiated contact of turn 1? No
Did he lose time with his driving? No quite the opposite, he prevented bigger los of time.

Bahrain:
https://www.gpfans.c...keerd-begrepen/

It has an English video with Horner in it, that says enough especially the following words from Horner

was it Max his fault? No..

Remember the English article was a result of a German article which means it was translated from English to German and back to English. This is direct from the mouth of Horner without translation.

And regarding first lap accidents, of Max every one was either initiated by a move from Vettel to begin with or Bottas was involved. He only caused one 100% himself (Hungary), 50% of the one in Belgium when they made a Kimi sandwich, and was a victim of the other 2.

Edited by zanquis, 20 July 2019 - 06:23.

[Tsarwash]

  
K since you both try to twist it into something impossible.

Verstappen had to move to the dirty side to avoid being behind Lewis and doing exactly what Seb did to Max.
It in no way justifies actions of Seb as Max did the complete opposite of what Seb did. And where Lewis moved to the middle, Max actually moved to the side away from the middle.

If the situation was reversed we would have had a 100 page thread about Verstappen moving in the braking zone.
Verstappen came from far but because Lewis moving to the middle he had no choice but move all the way to the left. To prevent him from hitting Hamilton seriously hard in the gearbox.

And tbh this is also the first time I see a race leader be knocked around by a lapped car and here it is pit down as Max fault despite the fact that Ocon got the obvious penalty.

The Monaco 2019 incident doesn't really matter and there's not much point revisiting it here, as it was a minor contact and didn't affect the result at all, did it ? Nobody lost any positions because of it. 

 

Considering that the purpose of this thread is to tally up EVERY incident that the leading drivers have been involved with in their entire F! careers, I am not sure how much point there is going to be in debating the finer points of every single incident listed. There are lots of Hamilton incidents from the 2011 season that we could revisit and talk about endlessly again, but is there really any point ? 

[Dan333SP]

The Monaco 2019 incident doesn't really matter and there's not much point revisiting it here, as it was a minor contact and didn't affect the result at all, did it ? Nobody lost any positions because of it. 

 

Considering that the purpose of this thread is to tally up EVERY incident that the leading drivers have been involved with in their entire F! careers, I am not sure how much point there is going to be in debating the finer points of every single incident listed. There are lots of Hamilton incidents from the 2011 season that we could revisit and talk about endlessly again, but is there really any point ? 

 

Don't worry, he's only interested in going through anything that is perceived as remotely unfair to Max with a fine-toothed comb.

[SenorSjon]

What is Australia 2016 for Verstappen? That minor nudge tbat had zero lasting effect?
I wouldn't call rubbing wheels with Bottas in Monza a crash.

His 5s penalty in Monaco is missing?

Hamilton had a spin in a British GP and then impeded a backmarker. Was that his 2009 mistake?

[maximilian]

Gahh, every time I see this title, I inadvertently read "Drivers indecent data" 

[zanquis]

Don't worry, he's only interested in going through anything that is perceived as remotely unfair to Max with a fine-toothed comb.

Which is why I also mentioned incidents he did forget. But still he counted one twice, and nothing happened in Belgium apart from his contact with the Ferrari’s that justifies counting it twice. Ah well made my points.

[zanquis]

Discounting the anomalic 2011 for Hamilton, the trend for 2007 to 2014 was that Vettel was just slightly more incident prone than him. Both Vettel and Hamilton had their incident rates reduced to very little by 2013 and 2014.

The difference is that Hamilton's incident rates remained on the very low levels through 2015 until now, but in contrast, Vettel's incident rate has rocketed up at Ferrari.

As for Max, he has long clean streaks and his incidents seem to come in bunches. In total, in their first 91 races, I count that all of Hamilton, Verstappen and Vettel had slightly over 20 incidents.

What is the 2016 Baku race incident? I only recall a 2018 incident not in 2016.

[MKSixer]

OP, can we get an update on this?

It's really great data!

Thanks-mk

[noriaki]

Updated & added a few Vettel incidents I had missed previously

[CSF]

2011 would be banter on this forum in 2019.

[sgtkate]

Rather than listing by the specific yesr why don't you change the graph/data to be each drivers first, second, third etc year in F1. That allows for easier trending to be seen against equal level of experience.

Thank you for the data. I really appreciate anyone who takes the time to dig out stats for the forum!

[Fatgadget]

Much Too much information!

[Requiem84]

How many races were there in say 2011 vs 2018?

I think the incidents shoukd be weighed as a percentage of tge total races. If you have 21 races instead of 18, you have about 20% more time to make a mistake...

[Leibowitz]

I wonder how Alonso fares against the three. There were not a lot of mistakes during those Ferrari years IIRC.


Anyway, it’s pretty obvious that Seb had thrown the 2018 title with his stupid mistakes and spins.

Edited by Leibowitz, 25 November 2021 - 23:35.

[PlatenGlass]

Looking back at this again, I think Vettel is unfairly maligned in 2010 compared to the others. All the contenders made mistakes, Vettel no more so than the others it seems. (Even if Turkey and Belgium were quite clumsy.)

[P123]

Looking back at this again, I think Vettel is unfairly maligned in 2010 compared to the others. All the contenders made mistakes, Vettel no more so than the others it seems. (Even if Turkey and Belgium were quite clumsy.)

I'd say it is Hamilton that is unfairly maligned.  One 50/50 incident, and one in which he was entirely at fault.

[PlatenGlass]

I'd say it is Hamilton that is unfairly maligned. One 50/50 incident, and one in which he was entirely at fault.

But generally, Hamilton's 2010 is talked up and Vettel's talked down. I also think Hamilton hit Vettel at the first corner at Valencia but got away with it so it isn't recorded.

[Broekschaap]

Thank you for putting the effort in providing us with the data. I don't think a model like this will ever lead to a uniform conclusion or can be decisive. And also when collecting data some fuzzy logic or bias is almost unavoidable. I do think you did a great job (may I make a case for using the median as a metric). To me the data was very insightfull. My conclusion based on the data is that none of the drivers particulair stand out. But that might be my own bias confirmed.

[MKSixer]

Thank you for putting the effort in providing us with the data. I don't think a model like this will ever lead to a uniform conclusion or can be decisive. And also when collecting data some fuzzy logic or bias is almost unavoidable. I do think you did a great job (may I make a case for using the median as a metric). To me the data was very insightfull. My conclusion based on the data is that none of the drivers particulair stand out. But that might be my own bias confirmed.

I think an overlay of this with penalty points garnered per event during their respective times would provide more granularity to this.  For instance Max has approximately the same number of penalty points that Lewis has in roughly half the time in Lewis has in Formula One.  All incidents aren't the same and additional texture would definitely help.  

[Claymore25]

But generally, Hamilton's 2010 is talked up and Vettel's talked down. I also think Hamilton hit Vettel at the first corner at Valencia but got away with it so it isn't recorded.

Not only 2010 Vettel's season was downplayed but people tend to forget the problem outside his control he had.

 

Bahrein: Oil problem in the car made him dropped from first to fourth.

Australia: DNF after a braking failure. He was leading the race.

Spain: Braking failure dropped him from second to third.

Canada: GEarbox issue dropped him from third to fourth.

Italy: Engine failure made him his recovery worst than it should.

Korea. DNF because an engine failure. He was leading the race.

 

 

How much points did Vettel lost that year but people just "remember" Turkey, England and Belgium?

 

EDIT: So without counting Italy because it would be pure speculation his probably finished, he lost 69 points only in mechanical problems and he was 25 points of 50 possible behinf Alonso. His season should be more praised.

Edited by Claymore25, 26 November 2021 - 13:01.

[JeePee]

I think an overlay of this with penalty points garnered per event during their respective times would provide more granularity to this.  For instance Max has approximately the same number of penalty points that Lewis has in roughly half the time in Lewis has in Formula One.  All incidents aren't the same and additional texture would definitely help.  

Penalty points were introduced in 2014, a year before Max his rookie season.

[MaroF1]

Not only 2010 Vettel's season was downplayed but people tend to forget the problem outside his control he had.

 

Bahrein: Oil problem in the car made him dropped from first to fourth.

Australia: DNF after a braking failure. He was leading the race.

Spain: Braking failure dropped him from second to third.

Canada: GEarbox issue dropped him from third to fourth.

Italy: Engine failure made him his recovery worst than it should.

Korea. DNF because an engine failure. He was leading the race.

 

 

How much points did Vettel lost that year but people just "remember" Turkey, England and Belgium?

 

You forgot to add Hungary, Vettel lost a slam dunk win thanks to him being ridiculously slow behind the Safety Car and earning himself a Drive Through Penalty and losing 10 points(Alo gaining 3 and Webber 10). I think that car was lot more dominant then what people think actually, 15 pole positions in 19 races... like cmon. Its just that Vettel despite making so many mistakes(and having misfortune) he still won, which shows you that RB6 was just on a different level, and it wasn't the driver that made the difference that year, and the end of the day when they looked like they lost the Drivers Championship, the car stepped in and won them the final 2 races(and Ferrari screwing Alonso in UAE helped the cause). Thats why in my eyes Vettel will never be considered as one of the best drivers in this sport, sure he was an exciting talent but he was always so error prone and often he complicated the things for him, even in the easiest races. I never believe there is a "prime" for a driver, (although I think his level dropped from middle of 2018 to today), I just think when he was in Ferrari he didn't have the car to save him, to help him beat his rival who was a superior driver, like he did have in RB's days against Alonso, and when the driver had to step up and make the difference, he falttered and lost himself. Tbh Dicun's thread about him being an "overachiever" is totally bang on, talented and a great guy, yes but not worthy of a 4 time World Champion. Not at all.

Edited by MaroF1, 26 November 2021 - 13:03.

[Claymore25]

You forgot to add Hungary, Vettel lost a slam dunk win thanks to him being ridiculously slow behind the Safety Car and earning himself a Drive Through Penalty and losing 10 points(Alo gainin 3 and Webber 10). I think that car was lot more dominant then what people think actually, 15 pole positions in 19 races... like cmon. Its just that Vettel despite making so many mistakes(and having misfortune) he still won, which shows you that RB6 was just out on a different level, and it wasn't the driver that made the difference that year, and the end of the day when they looked like they lost the Drivers Championship, the car stepped in and won them the final 2 races(and Ferrari screwing Alonso in UAE helped the cause). Thats why in my eyes Vettel will never be considered as one of the best drivers in this sport, sure he was an exciting talent but he was always so error prone and often he complicated the things for him, even in the easiest races. I never believe there is a "prime" for a driver, (although I think his level dropped from middle of 2018 to today), I just think when he was in Ferrari he didn't have the car to save him, to help him beat his rival who was superior like he did have in RB's days against Alonso, and when the driver had to step up and make the difference, he falttered and lost himself. Tbh Dicun's thread about him being an "overachiever" is totally bang on, talented and a great guy, yes but not worthy of a 4 time World Champion. Not at all.

The hungary incident it's a ridiculous rule that no one knew and should not be enforced.

 

BTW, poles means nothing if you can't convert that in wins or points. If not Juan Pablo Montoya would have win a WDC in the Williams BMW.

 

Ferrari ruined ALonso in EUA but save his races in Monaco after the spaniard crashed. Your point is what exactly.

 

The rest of your post means nothing in what I was talking besides the free slander which was totally false, of course.

[JimmyClark]

I think it's difficult to look purely at incident data - e.g. a driver in a dominant car (such as Vettel at Red Bull in 11/13 and Hamiton in Merc for much of this decade) doesn't need to push as much and can drive within their talent envelope, so there's probably less chance of incidents. Given how many extra mistakes Hamilton/Merc have made this year, it does bear out. 

[BerniesDad]

I think it's difficult to look purely at incident data - e.g. a driver in a dominant car (such as Vettel at Red Bull in 11/13 and Hamiton in Merc for much of this decade) doesn't need to push as much and can drive within their talent envelope, so there's probably less chance of incidents. Given how many extra mistakes Hamilton/Merc have made this year, it does bear out. 

Yep. I was thinking back to Michael Schumacher in '02 / '03 / '04 - the car was so far ahead that he didn't need to take any risks, and hence didn't make any mistakes. Also the mark of what a good driver he was - but if he'd had an evenly matched car (or had his teammate been allowed to compete) he might have had to push to the limit a bit more.

[gillesfan76]

 

Hi,

 

intrigued by discussion on the recent incident proneness of a certain top driver & distressed by some disagreements of memory on how exactly incident prone he was in the past, I decided that there ought to be solid data on this issue. Which I couldn't find anywhere on the internet. So today I chose to resolve it myself. I embarked on a historical journey through 2007 to 2019 using whatever remained in my own memory, whatever was left of Bernie's purges on Youtube, and, ehm, Wikipedia.  The aim of this quest was to find out who (of the 3 F1 drivers whose entire F1 career history I have bothered to go through so far (=Verstappen, Hamilton, Vettel)) has *actually* been the most incident prone, and on which season. 

 

So what counts as an "inciden"t, then? Well, it is a very good question, and the definition is bound to cause some disagreement. I have gone with my definition, but I fully accept that yours may be different. In any case, in my books, there are six different types of race-ruining disasters that can happen due to driver error, and four of them should count as incidents that are one's own fault to determine the incident proneness.

 

1) Crash. When you crash alone in a) race, b) qualifying, or c) free practise in a manner it compromizes the rest of your weekend (Max at Monaco last year being a prime example of this) without having a very solid excuse. Or when you crash with another driver in an incident, where most of the blame can clearly be attributed to you. 

2) Collision with another driver. Reserved for those fifty-fifty, eighty-twenty, half guilty half racing incidents, where you were (in my opinion) not *clearly* to blame, usually didn't receive a penalty, but where, in hindsight,you could have avoided the incident with reasonable measures had you been more careful or driven more smartly. (Hamilton/Button 2011 at Montreal / Spa 2016 with Verstappen, Raikkonen and Vettel where both parties would get a "collision" but neither a "crash". Conversely, Vettel would get a "collision" for Brazil 2012 whereas Senna would get a "crash".)

3) Spin. When you have a spin in a race entirely on your own. 

4) Mistake. When you run wide in the race and lose a position as a consequence (Vettel 2019, Montreal for example), or when you run out of track in qualifying in a manner that clearly compromizes your start position (Hamilton 2014, Austria for example)

---

5) Others. Where a penalty was handed out to you because of your error but where there was no crash, collision spin or a mistake. In other words - impeding, speeding, cutting the track, ignoring flags, leaving the track and so on, however (obviously) no penalties that were given out for technical reasons were counted. One could reasonably argue that these should be counted with categories 1-4, as breaking the rules is a major mistake as well, but I have decided to count these as a separate category, solely because of the inconsistency of the stewards on certain matters. Such as forcing another driver off the track which has only been handed out on the whim of a steward basically. 

---

6) Events where you are not to blame yourself. I did not count these as incidents that should be added on your tally. (Spa 2012 for starters. Grosjean would get a "crash" and all others who get collected won't have it counted. Another example, Shanghai 2018 - Verstappen gets a "crash", Vettel gets nothing. Crashes caused by blown tires or failing brakes, or other circumstances out of a driver's control that made the collision or the cras unavoidable.)

 

In addition to this, I have specified if an incident was "race ending" or "first lap".

 

I hope I could make myself understood!

 

Naturally, the list is bound to include errors. Some incidents are will certainly spark discussion whether there was fault. I will fully admit I haven't re-reviewed them all, and on some of them I went by the steward decision alone to count them as incidents. Hence any of the drivers may have a few incidents that should have counted but haven't because I deemed them not at fault (or most likely, didn't see them/forgot) and a few incidents that should not have counted on their "tally". On any of the incidents, I welcome any remarks, opinions, or reminders about some incidents to improve the list. However, I don't think the incompleteness should spoil the "grand picture" so I'm ready to present the fruits of my "research" already. 

 

Ladies, gentlemen, here it is in all its glory - How Many Incidents These Guys Had Annually:

 

 

https://i.ibb.co/NT4...ad-Annually.png (if the picture isn't visible)

 

*Vettel's 2007 and 2019 incidents have counted double because he has only competed around 50% of the races

 

AVG Starting Position

2007: Vettel 14.4 | Hamilton 2.6

2008: Vettel 11.0 | Hamilton 3.9

2009: Vettel 4.4 | Hamilton 9.3

2010: Vettel 1.9 | Hamilton 5.2

2011: Vettel 1.3 | Hamilton 3.6

2012: Vettel 5.0 | Hamilton 4.3

2013: Vettel 2.1 | Hamilton 3.5

2014: Vettel 7.8 | Hamilton 4.2

2015: Vettel 5.3 | Hamilton 1.6 | Verstappen 11.4

2016: Vettel 6.2 | Hamilton 4.1 | Verstappen 6.0

2017: Vettel 3.1 | Hamilton 3.6 | Verstappen 6.1

2018: Vettel 2.9 | Hamilton 2.7 | Verstappen 7.1

2019: Vettel 4.1 | Hamilton 2.0 | Verstappen 4.4

 

Vettel's data

2007 Italian GP Race Collision (Davidson)
2007 Japanese GP Race Race ending crash (Webber) 
2008 Australian GP Race Race ending first lap collision (Webber, Button, Davidson)
2008 Bahrain GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Sutil)
2008 Turkish GP Race First lap collision (Sutil) 
2008 Canadian GP Practice Crash
2008 British GP Race Race ending first lap collision (Coulthard)
2009 Australian GP Race Race ending crash (Kubica)
2009 Malaysian GP Race Race ending spin
2009 Monaco GP Race Race ending accident
2009 Turkish GP Race First lap mistake
2009 Hungarian GP Race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2009 Brazilian GP Race First lap collision (Kovalainen)
2010 Turkish GP Race Race ending crash (Webber) 
2010 Belgian GP Race Crash (Button)
2010 Italian GP Qualifying Mistake
2011 Canadian GP Race Mistake
2011 German GP Race Spin 
2011 Hungarian GP Race Mistake
2012 Malaysian GP Race Collision (Karthikeyan)
2012 Abu Dhabi GP Race Collision (Senna)
2012 Abu Dhabi GP Race Mistake (Ricciardo)
2012 Brazilian GP Race First lap collision (Senna)
2014 Austrian GP Race Collision (Gutierrez)
2014 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2014 Belgian GP Race Mistake
2015 Bahrain GP Race Mistake
2015 Mexican GP Race Collision (Ricciardo)
2015 Mexican GP Race Spin 
2015 Mexican GP Race Race ending crash
2015 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Mistake
2016 Chinese GP Race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2016 Malaysian GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Rosberg)
2016 Belgian GP Race First lap collision (Verstappen, Raikkonen)
2017 Baku GP Race Crash (Hamilton)
2017 Canadian GP Race First lap collision (Verstappen)
2017 Singapore GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Verstappen, Raikkonen)
2017 Malaysian GP Post race Collision (Stroll)
2017 Mexican GP Race First lap crash (Hamilton)
2018 Baku GP Race Mistake
2018 French GP Race First lap crash (Bottas)
2018 German GP Race Race ending crash
2018 Italian GP Race First lap crash (Hamilton)
2018 Japanese GP Qualifying Mistake
2018 Japanese GP Race Collision (Verstappen)
2018 United States GP Race First lap spin
2019 Bahrain GP Race Mistake
2019 Canadian GP Race Mistake
2019 British GP Race Crash (Verstappen)
2019 Italian GP Race Crash (Stroll)
 
2009 Singapore GP Race Speeding in the pitlane
2010 Hungarian GP Race Failing to stay within 10 car lengths of the safety car
2012 German GP Race Overtaking illegally (Button)
2012 Italian GP Race Forcing another driver off track (Alonso)
2015 Canadian GP Practice Overtaking under red flags (Merhi)
2016 British GP Race Forcing another driver off track (Massa)
2016 Mexican GP Race Driving dangerously (Ricciardo)
2018 Austrian GP Race Impeding (Sainz)

Hamilton's data

year gp session incident type
2007 European GP Race Mistake
2007 Chinese GP Race Race ending crash
2008 Bahrain GP Race Crash (Alonso)
2008 Canadian GP Race Race ending crash
2008 Belgian GP Race Mistake (Hamilton)
2009 Monaco GP Qualifying Crash  
2009 British GP Race Mistake
2009 German GP Race First lap collision (Webber)
2009 Italian GP Race Race ending crash
2010 Australian GP Race Collision (Massa)
2010 Italian GP Race Race ending first lap crash (Massa)
2010 Singapore GP Race Race ending collision (Webber)
2011 Australian GP Race Mistake
2011 Malaysian GP Race Collision (Alonso)
2011 Monaco GP Qualifying Mistake
2011 Monaco GP Race Collision (Massa)
2011 Monaco GP Race Crash (Maldonado)
2011 Canadian GP Race Crash (Webber)
2011 Canadian GP Race Race ending collision (Button)
2011 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2011 Belgian GP Race Race ending crash (Kobayashi)
2011 Singapore GP Race Crash (Massa)
2011 Japanese GP Race Collision (Massa)
2011 Indian GP Race Collision (Massa)
2012 European GP Race Collision (Maldonado)
2013 Brazilian GP Race Crash (Bottas)
2014 Austrian GP Qualifying Mistake
2014 Hungarian GP Race Spin
2014 Belgian GP Race Collision (Rosberg)
2015 Hungarian GP Race First lap mistake
2015 Hungarian GP Race Collision (Ricciardo)
2016 Spanish GP Race Collision (Rosberg)
2016 Baku GP Qualifying Crash
2017 Brazilian GP Qualifying Crash
2018 German GP Qualifying Mistake
2019 German GP Race Crash
2019 German GP Race Spin
2019 Belgian GP Practise Crash
2019 Italian GP Race Mistake
 
2008 Malaysian GP Qualifying Impeding (Heidfeld, Alonso)
2008 French GP Race Cutting a corner (Vettel)
2008 Belgian GP Race Gaining an advantage off the track (Raikkonen)
2008 Japanese GP Race Forcing another driver off the track (Raikkonen)
2009 Australian GP Race Lying to the stewards
2011 Hungarian GP Race Forcing another driver off the track (di Resta)
2011 Indian GP Practise Disobeying yellow flags

Verstappen's data

2015 Monaco GP race Race ending crash (Grosjean)
2015 British GP race Race ending spin
2016 Australian GP race Collision (Sainz)
2016 Monaco GP qualifying Crash
2016 Monaco GP race Crash
2016 Baku GP race Mistake
2016 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Vettel, Raikkonen)
2016 Belgian GP race First lap mistake
2017 Spanish GP race Race ending first lap collision (Bottas, Raikkonen)
2017 Hungarian GP race First lap crash (Ricciardo)
2018 Australian GP race Mistake
2018 Australian GP race Spin
2018 Bahrain GP race Collision (Hamilton)
2018 Chinese GP race Mistake
2018 Chinese GP race Crash (Vettel)
2018 Baku GP race Collision (Ricciardo)
2018 Monaco GP practise Crash
2018 Italian GP race Crash (Bottas)
2018 Brazilian GP race Collision (Ocon)
2019 Belgian GP race First lap collision (Raikkonen)
2019 Italian GP race First lap crash (Perez)

2015 Hungarian GP race Speeding under SC
2015 Japanese GP race Stopping on the racing line
2015 Abu Dhabi GP race Leaving the track and gaining an advantage
2015 Abu Dhabi GP race Ignoring blue flags
2016 Mexican GP race Cutting the track (Vettel)
2017 United States GP race Cutting the track (Raikkonen) 
2018 Japanese GP race Forcing another driver off track (Raikkonen)

 

Excellent thread and excellent post. There’s been claims that Lewis’ low error rate has “coincided” with the 2014 and onwards Mercedes years, but as I had countered at the time, his 2012 season was one of his best and better than some of his post-2014 Mercedes seasons. Good to see the data validate it.