124 replies to this topic

[rf90]

If Lewis does partner Valtteri at Merc next year then we can assume Lewis will win the 2021 title, but will 2022 see a more open fight for the drivers' title?

It would be a nice change if teams can produce cars that can realistically compete with Merc, and that allow different drivers to have a proper chance at a title that has been denied them by the Merc steamroller.

I think 2022 will be more open but I haven't a clue which teams and drivers will be in the mix, although I'd be very surprised if Merc falls away.

The drivers that I think are worthy of a title are Ricciardo, Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris and Sainz but I'd be more than happy to be wrong and see one or two suprises in the mix.

[geralt]

2022 is the best chance for a mixed up grid, but Merc will still be the favourites obviously

[peroa]

I think you might be disappointed. Usually one team get's it right from the beginning.

[shure]

If Lewis does partner Valtteri at Merc next year then we can assume Lewis will win the 2021 title, but will 2022 see a more open fight for the drivers' title?

It would be a nice change if teams can produce cars that can realistically compete with Merc, and that allow different drivers to have a proper chance at a title that has been denied them by the Merc steamroller.

I think 2022 will be more open but I haven't a clue which teams and drivers will be in the mix, although I'd be very surprised if Merc falls away.

The drivers that I think are worthy of a title are Ricciardo, Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris and Sainz but I'd be more than happy to be wrong and see one or two suprises in the mix.

I used to think that of Norris but tbh I don't think that's the case anymore.  He lacks the killer instinct for me.  I'm  not 100% convinced about Sainz, either.  I see  both of those as good #2s but not someone who can lead a team and who stands out from the pack.

 

I think the rule changes in 2022 won't make that much difference to the pecking order.   As long as we have these hybrids in the current for then no-one will topple Mercedes

[Anja]

I think you might be disappointed. Usually one team get's it right from the beginning.

 

Exactly. What we have now is a pretty natural state of F1, it's to be expected. It's the years with close championship fight that are the anomaly. 

[AnR]

Exactly. What we have now is a pretty natural state of F1, it's to be expected. It's the years with close championship fight that are the anomaly. 

 

This engine dominance is a bit more than that, probably 16 titles by next year by one team and noone seems to even get close to challenge.

Don't know if any other motor sport have locked in an advantage like this before, hyper expensive , hyper complicated engine which noone have even a close call to match

[alonstar]

I don't see Mercedes failing in 2022...

[Marklar]

I give next year a better chance than 2022 tbh. Maybe the floor rule changes and Red Bull finally getting it right from the get go can shrink the gap enough.

In 2022....somebody will somehow nail the rule changes. And due to the budget cap it will probably be harder to catch up than it already is. Maybe the winner will be somebody else though, so that people will be happy at least for one year

[Requiem84]

If LH quits by the end of this year.. 2021 might actually get interesting.

[JG]

When new engine regs are go.  

[JG]

Lewis will not retire until he have 8 WDC. 

[rf90]

If LH quits by the end of this year.. 2021 might actually get interesting.

 

Indeed. I think Valtteri will prevail but I have a feeling it won't just be Verstappen challenging.

[Atreiu]

Hamilton should take 2021 off. The inevitable chaos will make us realize how good he is (like Marquez not racing in MotoGP this season). Then he should come back in 2022 and stomp the field again.

[Misk]

IF Hamilton did quit at the end of this year and Red Bull signed Perez as their number 2, I would actually consider Verstappen as favourite for the title. But it's a moot point as there is no way Hamilton will quit and he will cruise to WDC number 8 next season. 

[Calum]

There's a few things happening that make me worried that 2022 will be uncompetitive and more of the same.

 

 

- RedBull Racing not being a factory team anymore.

You need perfection to beat this Mercedes team. Being a customer is lost cohesion between all parts of the machine.

 

- Ferrari writing-off a year of engine development.

They must be behind where they wanted to be in terms of engine dev going towards 2022, which is a shame for fans wanting competition between the biggest teams.

But they cheated and absolutely must pay the price of spending resources to recoup losses. 

 

- Renault changing to Alpine.

The team are on an upswing but I can't shake a feeling the team rebrand is them being less serious.

I know this is my weakest argument so I hope I'm miles off and Renault/Alpine can stun with a title fight.

 

- Mercedes just stick with what they have. best engine with Hamilton and Bottas.

Sell it as 'vital experience to help a smooth transition into the new rules'.

There's no evidence to suggest there's going to suddenly be a contest between them as teammates, and with drawbacks in all above teams, more of the same wouldn't be a surprise.

[Marklar]

IF Hamilton did quit at the end of this year and Red Bull signed Perez as their number 2, I would actually consider Verstappen as favourite for the title. But it's a moot point as there is no way Hamilton will quit and he will cruise to WDC number 8 next season.

Would probably depend on who Merc signs instead, if it's a equal or slightly better/worse driver than Bottas then indeed, I would consider Max as the favourite. If they hire a lapdog for Bottas then - if the current advantage persists - Bottas should be favourite. The slower car is often extra hampered by strategy, so Bottas would probably do slightly better than he does currently in such a scenario.

Edited by Marklar, 02 November 2020 - 15:53.

[rf90]

Hamilton should take 2021 off. The inevitable chaos will make us realize how good he is (like Marquez not racing in MotoGP this season). Then he should come back in 2022 and stomp the field again.

 

Well, this isn't a 'Hamilton thread' but... Marquez didn't have dominant machinery.  but Hamilton, ...  hasn't been injured.

[Misk]

Would probably depend on who Merc signs instead, if it's a equal or slightly better/worse driver than Bottas then indeed, I would consider Max as the favourite. If they hire a lapdog for Bottas then - if the current advantage persists - Bottas should be favourite. The slower car is often extra hampered by strategy, so Bottas would probably do slightly better than he does currently in such a scenario.

 

Yeah agreed. It would all depend on who Mercedes signed. And if, of course, they were somehow able to prise away Leclerc or Ricciardo, then they would certainly become favourites. I think there is no chance in hell Hamilton is going anywhere but it is fun to speculate. 

[A.Fant]

We can dream of another 2009, but that required all of the big teams putting their developmental effort into several blind alleys (KERS, inwash front wings) while missing out on the true silver bullet of the new regulations. The chance of that happening is unfortunately quite small.

 

I'm still quite amazed how tight the field was in the 2nd half when all the teams had dropped the bad designs and adopted the good ones. Force India were front runners for a couple of races and Williams were duking it out with McLaren and Red Bull for the win in Singapore.

[tourister46a]

2023 with a declining 38 year old Hamilton against a hot-shot teammate hired for the future. The Mercedes super team is too strong for anyone to compete against until they are naturally broken up deep into the budget cap era.

Edited by tourister46a, 02 November 2020 - 16:44.

[masa90]

I am worried that we will go straight from Hamilton domination to Verstappen domination. I hope I am wrong, would be crushing.

[Lerdes]

Any other team than Mercedes? I put my money on Fernando and Renault. Not that I'm good at it but I will do it anyway. I can't see RB at the front (engine situation) or Mclaren (maybe in 2023). And Ferrari? Who knows what the horse will bring into the game... All the other teams will have no chance.

Edited by Lerdes, 02 November 2020 - 18:24.

[Dutchrudder]

This engine dominance is a bit more than that, probably 16 titles by next year by one team and noone seems to even get close to challenge.
Don't know if any other motor sport have locked in an advantage like this before, hyper expensive , hyper complicated engine which noone have even a close call to match

The DFV got 22 titles, so some way for this engine dominance to go yet. Granted the DFV was offered as a true independent engine available to any team who wanted it.

Obviously the cost of these current engines and the political manoeuvring necessary to obtain them is ridiculous. And the fact that no customer team has packaged it successfully enough to win a race using it despite its absolute dominance.

The problem for F1 is that if Merc want to continue as they currently are, the guy who takes Hamilton’s seat when he does give it up could conceivably win 10 championships if he starts young enough. You may get someone hit the ground running with a new rule set, but Merc can out develop them and I bet that will be the case irrespective of budget cap.

[renzmann]

I don't believe for a second Hamilton is about to retire, he'll be there in 2022. He'll be in the team with the best PU and an aero-department that has gotten it right for 8 years. So...

[Synkro89]

Hmmm i don't know guys. Hamilton retiring has been playing on my mind for a while. Ive been saying this for a while but Lewis Hamilton is BORED even someone with his skillset wants to race against another team like 2017-2019. He's looking at the competition next year and deep down he knows Redbull and Ferrari are playing catchup for the next few seasons. Alot of Hamilton fans fail to realise the 6 times world champion thrives/excels when being in competition with other teams. I love when the guy goes into hunter mode. The cars body language just becomes animalistic when he's chasing down or fending off other drivers. Hamilton is truly grateful for what mercedes have done since 2013. Seing him mature and improve every year has been a blessing to watch but he is desperately craving for other teams to get involved. There's no better way to validate you still have that fire when you race and BEAT these young guns coming through. Bottas is played out. He knows he has him in his back pocket (especially on raceday) every year he races him his fire dimmers. It doesn't do anything for him when he beats Bottas.

 

Overall though i don't see anyone knocking Merc off there pedastal. You just see it every weekend how slick there operation is compared to Red Bull and Ferrari. Wether thats there management of driver relations. Analysing data from simulations all the way back to there factorys in northamptonshire to engine reliability to race operations. They are so far ahead of the game its not even funny. I remember when in 2013 there was alot of speculation that Merc had too many chefs in the kitchen. How naive were most people back then. Even Lewis couldn't of predicted this amount of domination lol. The bad new is this could potentially last until the new engine regs come in to play which is 2026 btw. Ive seen a article on the merc thread saying the team have found another 20nhp for next year. Absolute dire news. We could have another 5 years of Merc going unchallenged. You lot haven't seen anything yet 

 

See how i haven't mentioned 2022 . Thats because not alot will change at the front. Merc have had a headstart on those regs aswell lool

[pdac]

I don't think anyone in F1 really wants it to be more open. They say they do, but really, Red Bull just want Mercedes clipped so that they can challenge and beat them, but they don't want any changes that might let others catch up to them. Similarly, Ferrari only really want Mercedes and Red Bull clipped.

 

And it's the same all the way down, nobody wants any changes that might allow those below them to catch up - only changes that will allow them to catch the ones above them. So, I doubt there will ever be any meaningful changes happening in the short or medium term and, so, the contest will not be more open.

Edited by pdac, 02 November 2020 - 22:13.

[Misk]

I am worried that we will go straight from Hamilton domination to Verstappen domination. I hope I am wrong, would be crushing.

 

Pray that Ferrari can give Leclerc a decent car. 

[AnR]

I am worried that we will go straight from Hamilton domination to Verstappen domination. I hope I am wrong, would be crushing.

 

Don't think Red Bull can match the Merc engine for many, many years to come, so no, who ever gets in the #1 Merc seat will continue, if a younger driver enters he might crush the current driver records in some years

[TheFish]

Any other team than Mercedes? I put my money on Fernando and Renault. Not that I'm good at it but I will do it anyway. I can't see RB at the front (engine situation) or Mclaren (maybe in 2023). And Ferrari? Who knows what the horse will bring into the game... All the other teams will have no chance.

I admire the optimism. It would be a great story.

 

I hope 2022 brings the cars closer together, like 2009 did. Hard to bet against the Lewis and Merc combination though.

[Branislav]

 

 

Tells a guy who's responsible for people (me included) switching off TV sets

[OO7]

 

 

Tells a guy who's responsible for people (me included) switching off TV sets

He's right though.  If you really want equal performance, then just turn F1 into a spec series.  I'd prefer if they didn't do that though, just bring the costs to become competitive down and let the best teams do the the best job.

[Branislav]

He's right though.  If you really want equal performance, then just turn F1 into a spec series.  I'd prefer if they didn't do that though, just bring the costs to become competitive down and let the best teams do the the best job.

 

But before that you must with everything (chassis+engine) start from zero. And must be introduced engine budget cap too.

[pdac]

But before that you must with everything (chassis+engine) start from zero. And must be introduced engine budget cap too.

 

In 2014 they started from zero with regard to the engines.

[jee]

Whenever anyone can use something other than a V6t

Edited by jee, 04 November 2020 - 10:58.

[Branislav]

In 2014 they started from zero with regard to the engines.

 

No they're not. Mercedes had a head start. And still profits from that advantage.

[Branislav]

Ecclestone: Mercedes head-started as they knew a bit more

 

Bernie Ecclestone claims Mercedes had a head-start over its engine rivals at the start of F1's controversial turbo V6 era.

After the 2015 season opener, the F1 supremo on Monday sided with furious Renault-powered Red Bull as the former champions urged F1's governing body to intervene.

 

Now, Ecclestone says Mercedes got a head-start over 2014 rivals Renault and Ferrari when the new engine rules were being devised.

 

"They knew a bit more about the (proposed) power unit," he is quoted by Italy's Sky Sport 24, "because the Mercedes people were in close contact with the FIA in defining the concept of this engine.

"It is why they had such a strong start last year and they are keeping that advantage now," the 84-year-old Briton added.

Ecclestone said efforts to close Mercedes' huge advantage should now be made, even though he admitted that Renault, "who pushed for this revolution, have failed".

________________________________________________________________

 

Link in case someone ask for https://www.motorspo...it-more/517030/

Edited by Branislav, 04 November 2020 - 12:02.

[THEWALL]

F1 has changed and it's potentially only winnable by one of the big four corporations in it: Mercedes, Renault, Honda and Fiat. Honda is out so that makes it three. Ferrari is backed by Fiat but it's not really Fiat, it's practically a boutique high-end sport cars company. Have you compared the quality of Mercedes cars vs Renaults and Fiats?

 

Ok. Add to that that the change in engines is minor, if anything, and you'll get a pretty good bet of who is going to be winning even in 2022. I'm the first one that wants to be wrong, but it doesn't seem like we'll see major changes really. 

 

As far as drivers go, it's amazing how many people here don't understand that any combination in the same team of top drivers involving Ham, VErstappen and Leclerc is not possible and won't happen, possibly ever again if F1 continues the way it is. Forget.it.it's.not.going.to.happen. 

 

What would be interesting though is if Mercedes looses Ham and they choose to go at it with Bottas or a comparable driver, they would probably still win the WDC and WCC as has been shown this year with Bottas second. Now that would be a showing of force, and maybe also a good marketing tool? 

Edited by THEWALL, 04 November 2020 - 15:28.

[THEWALL]

He's right though.  If you really want equal performance, then just turn F1 into a spec series.  I'd prefer if they didn't do that though, just bring the costs to become competitive down and let the best teams do the the best job.

If the fans side with the monopolists then F1 is truly lost. 

[messy]

I think the biggest point of interest if Hamilton retires is who they'd replace him with. Surely, surely, they'd move heaven and earth to get Verstappen in the car. They'd have to. Whether we're talking 2021 or 2022 and beyond. You don't lose statistically the most successful driver of all time and sign a number two for the existing number two - Red Bull and Max would be rubbing their hands at that prospect. You'd have to get Max in the car, because there's nobody else who could even begin to just carry on where Lewis left off. 

 

A Bottas/Russell Mercedes pairing probably gets eaten up by a Verstappen-led Red Bull, doesn't it? Or at least given a much harder time. 

[Branislav]

Max is 100% leaving Red Bull. The only question is where: Mercedes OR Ferrari

[TheFish]

Max is 100% leaving Red Bull. The only question is where: Mercedes OR Ferrari

Given Ferrari have given Leclerc a 5 year deal, Max to Merc when Lewis leaves or to have 1 last season together.

[Branislav]

And don't forget a new team principal is coming to Mercedes. He surely doesn't want to succeed Wolff's success with Hamilton. He'll be pushing for Max.

 

And if that not a case, Ferrari will pay him a fortune to bring him regardless they have Leclerc because I know they think Max is a real deal like they think 2010 when they kicked Kimi and brought Fernando (and pay Kimi not to drive).

Edited by Branislav, 04 November 2020 - 14:23.

[Cyanide]

Until the dominant team decides to put two superstars together, probably never. There will always be one dominant team, but the least the sport can do is achieve pairings that would make things exciting. 

 

We need strong combinations of team-mates like 'Verstappen-Hamilton' or 'Leclerc-Russell' or 'Hamilton-Ricciardo' ideally in two or three teams to make this sport exciting. Right now we have a painfully mediocre Bottas against a behemoth Hamilton, a vastly outclassed Albon against a superstar Verstappen and a tired, demotivated Vettel against a hungry and insanely fast Leclerc. The midfield is not much better either (Ricciardo is easily beating Ocon, Perez is demolishing Stroll, Gasly is making a fool out of Kvyat, etc.). 

[Branislav]

Until the dominant team decides to put two superstars together, probably never. 

Then never 'cause such a teams only think about themselves and not a sport or us fans.

[markpenske]

2022 budget cap is not going to change the mighty Mercedes research and development, and that is where the real performance gains are made. The top teams will attract the best drivers and nothing will change.

In my opinion F1 needs to do something dramatic, dare I say...…."Spec car"?

Personally I would be ok with a spec series. Would it really make a difference in your viewing pleasure? Besides liveries do you really notice a difference from a Racing point, Renault, McLaren? maybe a slight appearance difference.

By the current regulations teams are designing cars within a certain set of parameters and the end result are cars that look and sound identical. So, I say "Improve the show".

Just my opinion, I will continue watching either way.

[rf90]

F1 has changed and it's potentially only winnable by one of the big four corporations in it: Mercedes, Renault, Honda and Fiat. Honda is out so that makes it three. Ferrari is backed by Fiat but it's not really Fiat, it's practically a boutique high-end sport cars company. Have you compared the quality of Mercedes cars vs Renaults and Fiats?

 

Ok. Add to that that the change in engines is minor, if anything, and you'll get a pretty good bet of who is going to be winning even in 2022. I'm the first one that wants to be wrong, but it doesn't seem like we'll see major changes really. 

 

As far as drivers go, it's amazing how many people here don't understand that any combination in the same team of top drivers involving Ham, VErstappen and Leclerc is not possible and won't happen, possibly ever again if F1 continues the way it is. Forget.it.it's.not.going.to.happen. 

 

What would be interesting though is if Mercedes looses Ham and they choose to go at it with Bottas or a comparable driver, they would probably still win the WDC and WCC as has been shown this year with Bottas second. Now that would be a showing of force, and maybe also a good marketing tool? 

Was just about to separately post the following, but I see I'm in agreement with you...

 

I think Mercedes would still get tremendous marketing value by fielding another Tier 2 driver with the existing Tier 2 driver, Bottas. If their car maintains it's dominance, which is very likely, Merc would more than likely still win both Championships and thus maybe enjoy even greater credibility for the car.
I'd prefer not to see another Tier 1 driver teamed with Bottas, or we would just get more of what we've had for the last 7 years.

[rf90]

2022 budget cap is not going to change the mighty Mercedes research and development, and that is where the real performance gains are made. The top teams will attract the best drivers and nothing will change.

In my opinion F1 needs to do something dramatic, dare I say...…."Spec car"?

Personally I would be ok with a spec series. Would it really make a difference in your viewing pleasure? Besides liveries do you really notice a difference from a Racing point, Renault, McLaren? maybe a slight appearance difference.

By the current regulations teams are designing cars within a certain set of parameters and the end result are cars that look and sound identical. So, I say "Improve the show".

Just my opinion, I will continue watching either way.

Compared to other F1 eras, F1 is now pretty much a spec series but all teams behind Merc drew short straws in terms of the engine they got.... if that makes sense

Edited by rf90, 04 November 2020 - 16:18.

[Branislav]

Compared to other F1 eras, F1 is now pretty much a spec series but all teams behind Merc drew short straws in terms of the engine they got.... if that makes sense

Race in which you have 3 cars lapping the entire field isn't nowhere near a spec series.

 

And F1 doesn't have to be spec. They just need strict rules. Really strict.

 

I know that sounds bad for car makers, but them are 3 and rest are 7.

 

So what it gonna be?

 

It's in Todt's hands...

[PlayboyRacer]

And if that not a case, Ferrari will pay him a fortune to bring him regardless they have Leclerc because I know they think Max is a real deal like they think 2010 when they kicked Kimi and brought Fernando (and pay Kimi not to drive).

LOL. It isn't remotely the same scenario.

I like how the Verstappen fans around here, more often these days, go to real effort to play down the real quality of Leclerc. Mind you I'd love to see Verstappen v Leclerc in the same car.

Man Charlie is gonna break some hearts around here.

[shure]

LOL. It isn't remotely the same scenario.

I like how the Verstappen fans around here, more often these days, go to real effort to play down the real quality of Leclerc. Mind you I'd love to see Verstappen v Leclerc in the same car.

Man Charlie is gonna break some hearts around here.

yeah Ferrari need Max with Leclerc there in the same way that Merc need Max with Lewis there.  It's not going to happen either way.  Both teams are built around one top driver and don't need a second potentially disruptive competitor there.  Max's main hope would be if Lewis were to leave: then I think there's a decent chance Merc will pull out the stops to get Max  onboard.  Ferrari?  No way I think