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Place The Points Competition 2021 after Bahrain


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 14:46

The standings after Bahrain:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Everyone              101 101
Everybody is still in contention! There is probably lots of regret about the entries already.

The entries

The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2019, when there were 21 races.
Name  Max  Pop  Min  Diff
Hami  427  391  350  +132
Vers  440  368  303  +153
Bott  310  262  218  + 60
Pere  283  246  203  +178
Ricc  201  170  150  +121
Lecl  210  138  100  - 30
Norr  185  131  100  + 85
Alon  157  112   56  +112
Vett  143  105   60  - 44
Sain  135   98   71  + 38
Stro  100   76   40  + 39
Ocon  110   75   35  + 39
Gasl  100   74   49  + 46
Tsun   83   48   24  + 48
Räik   40   12    4  -  8
Giov   25    9    2  +- 0
Russ   10    4    0  +  2
Schu    8    2    0  +  2
Maze    4    1    0  +  1
Lati    6    1    0  +- 0
Hülk    6    0    0  +- 0
Notably the points span for Hamilton guesses is just 77 points.
If the final scores end up in either extreme end, getting guesses right on drivers like Vettel (83 points span), Ocon (75) and Tsunoda (59) may turn out to be as crucial to the final scores as frontrunner guesses.

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team   Pts  Diff
Merc   653  +192
RBR    614  +271
McLa   301  +195
Ferr   236  - 81
Alpi   187  +102
Asto   181  + 76
ATau   122  + 75
Alfa    21  -  8
Will     5  +  2
Haas     3  - 16
Tight WCC battle predicted, and a pretty exciting midfield too.

If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name              Tot
1)  mark f1              2253
2)  sladealonso          2249
3)  Bleu                 2231
4)  noikeee              2229
5)  SpaceHorseParty      2228
6)  Makarias             2211
7)  DutchQuicksilver     2210
8)  Marklar              2209
9)  thegforcemaybewithyou2208
10) scheivlak            2202
11) jjcale               2201
12) M2000-5              2197
13) Grayson              2196
14) KWSN-DSM             2185
15) Brawn BGP 001        2168
16) Anderis              2155
17) f1paul               2141
18) GTA                  2126

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver  Players
Hami     11
Vers      7

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner               Owned
     <-     =    ->
Alon  18    0    0  Ocon
Gasl  18    0    0  Tsun
Hami  18    0    0  Bott
Vers  18    0    0  Pere
Lecl  17    0    1  Sain
Ricc  17    0    1  Norr
Vett  15    1    2  Stro
Russ  14    4    0  Lati
Räik  12    5    1  Giov
Schu   6   12    0  Maze
Pretty, pretty lopsided in most teams.
 
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Norr      9,1      6,5    0
Hami      6,4      5,8    0
Lecl      5,8      3,8    0
Bott      5,7      4,8    0
Vers      4,9      4,1    0
Tsun      4,2      2,4    0
Sain      4,1      2,9    0
Pere      4,1      3,5    0
Ricc      3,5      3,0    0
Stro      1,3      1,0    0

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton               Verstappen             Bottas                 Norris                 Perez               
* Forecast      575    * Potential     568    * Potential     565    * Potential     562    * Potential     560
* Potential     575    f1paul          440    * Forecast      345    * Forecast      276    Brawn BGP 001   283
Anderis         427    * Forecast      414    Anderis         310    M2000-5         185    noikeee         276
f1paul          425    Brawn BGP 001   402    f1paul          300    Brawn BGP 001   164    f1paul          268
Grayson         410    M2000-5         396    Grayson         300    Makarias        146    GTA             265
GTA             410    scheivlak       395    DutchQuicksilver299    Grayson         140    Grayson         260
SpaceHorseParty 410    KWSN-DSM        390    sladealonso     284    jjcale          136    scheivlak       260
jjcale          405    Bleu            387    Marklar         282    noikeee         134    Bleu            258
Makarias        394    jjcale          384    SpaceHorseParty 280    Marklar         132    Marklar         253
sladealonso     393    noikeee         376    jjcale          274    sladealonso     132    thegforcemaybewi250
mark f1         389    SpaceHorseParty 370    mark f1         260    f1paul          131    M2000-5         244
scheivlak       385    Marklar         361    noikeee         259    mark f1         130    mark f1         238
noikeee         383    thegforcemaybewi360    Brawn BGP 001   252    DutchQuicksilver126    SpaceHorseParty 238
DutchQuicksilver382    Makarias        352    thegforcemaybewi250    SpaceHorseParty 125    DutchQuicksilver234
M2000-5         382    Grayson         350    scheivlak       246    Bleu            121    sladealonso     232
Bleu            379    GTA             350    Bleu            245    GTA             119    * Forecast      230
KWSN-DSM        378    sladealonso     345    KWSN-DSM        225    Anderis         116    KWSN-DSM        224
thegforcemaybewi370    mark f1         340    M2000-5         223    scheivlak       115    Makarias        222
Brawn BGP 001   364    DutchQuicksilver330    GTA             220    thegforcemaybewi110    jjcale          217
Marklar         350    Anderis         303    Makarias        218    KWSN-DSM        100    Anderis         203
* Current        25    * Current        18    * Current        15    * Current        12    * Current        10
Very interesting.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Leclerc                Ricciardo              Sainz                  Tsunoda                Stroll              
* Potential     558    * Potential     556    * Potential     554    * Potential     552    * Potential     551
GTA             210    Brawn BGP 001   201    GTA             135    scheivlak        83    SpaceHorseParty 100
* Forecast      184    KWSN-DSM        200    thegforcemaybewi120    KWSN-DSM         80    Anderis          96
Anderis         167    Marklar         192    Grayson         110    Marklar          75    DutchQuicksilver 96
Bleu            156    Makarias        181    Makarias        107    noikeee          70    M2000-5          91
Makarias        147    mark f1         175    M2000-5         106    Grayson          50    mark f1          90
SpaceHorseParty 145    scheivlak       175    Anderis         105    mark f1          50    jjcale           89
Brawn BGP 001   143    sladealonso     174    Bleu            100    thegforcemaybewi 50    Bleu             88
Marklar         141    M2000-5         169    KWSN-DSM        100    Makarias         46    KWSN-DSM         85
sladealonso     141    f1paul          165    mark f1         100    * Forecast       46    sladealonso      84
thegforcemaybewi140    GTA             165    noikeee         100    Anderis          45    Makarias         79
DutchQuicksilver135    Bleu            162    SpaceHorseParty 100    SpaceHorseParty  43    GTA              65
scheivlak       135    jjcale          162    jjcale           94    sladealonso      42    f1paul           62
Grayson         130    DutchQuicksilver161    * Forecast       92    GTA              40    thegforcemaybewi 62
noikeee         130    Grayson         160    scheivlak        90    f1paul           39    scheivlak        61
jjcale          126    Anderis         156    f1paul           89    Brawn BGP 001    34    Grayson          60
KWSN-DSM        125    noikeee         155    sladealonso      80    DutchQuicksilver 34    Marklar          60
mark f1         120    SpaceHorseParty 150    DutchQuicksilver 79    M2000-5          33    Brawn BGP 001    54
M2000-5         103    thegforcemaybewi150    Brawn BGP 001    77    Bleu             28    noikeee          40
f1paul          100    * Forecast      138    Marklar          71    jjcale           24    * Forecast       23
* Current         8    * Current         6    * Current         4    * Current         2    * Current         1
Fascinating reflections under a mysterious light.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Monaco GP.

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#2 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 16:20

Ouch, had too much faith in Aston Martin and not enough faith in Ferrari.

#3 Anderis

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 16:38

So I put more points than anyone into Mercedes and fewer than anyone into Red Bull (by a big margin!), interesting. I guess I may be happy with every race like the one in Bahrain when RB fails to capitalise on their speed. I think it was 2019 when I had put fewer points than anyone into Mercedes and then Mercedes dominated and I said I would never underestimate Mercedes again? :p 

 

Other than that, the only thing I would have changed in my prediction after the first race is to move some points from Alpine and Aston Martin into McLaren and Alpha Tauri but it's still to be seen if the pecking order remains as it was in Bahrain.

I've always done pretty badly in this game and if Red Bull keeps being as fast as in Bahrain but manage to bring the results home, it may be the same story this year. I can't figure out how to master this game even though I've predicted the pecking order quite accurately before the season after testing a few times in the past.



#4 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 18:16

Man I was too pessimistic on Sainz and AT and optimistic on Vettel and Alonso.


Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 29 March 2021 - 18:17.


#5 noikeee

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 18:20

Like everyone else I overestimated Aston and Alpine but other than that I'm pretty happy where I stand.