843 replies to this topic

[yolo]

zibby43, on 01 May 2021 - 19:00, said:

Gotta change your name to "Yolo Narrative McTwister." You went from predicting that Portimao would be a RBR track, to saying: "Of course this would happen, look at last year." BTW, it wasn't their most dominant. It was merely one of their dominant performances. Silverstone, Barcelona, etc. were just as mighty, if not mightier.

Anyway, if you're going to now use historical Merc performances as the basis for predicting future results, then consistency will see you pick a dominant Mercedes next weekend in Barcelona as well.

Reading comprehension isn’t your forte. I never said Portimao would favour RB; if anything the lack of fast front-limited corners would help Merc vs RB. Also, this track is less power sensitive than the previous two which helps narrow the power deficit Merc has over 1 lap.

As for 2020, Portimao was more dominant than any of the races you mentioned. Merc narrowly won Silverstone (and lost 70th GP), and Verstappen split the two Mercs and finished 25s behind HAM at Barcelona (vs 35s in Portimao).

[ARTGP]

Judging how Mercedes repeated their tactic from last season, needing 2 laps to get the medium tire going, should we expect them to be out in the doldrums on the first lap like last year? Could make for an interesting start with Norris and Ocon on softs in P5 and P6.

[ConsiderAndGo]

ARTGP, on 01 May 2021 - 20:28, said:

Judging how Mercedes repeated their tactic from last season, needing 2 laps to get the medium tire going, should we expect them to be out in the doldrums on the first lap like last year? Could make for an interesting start with Norris and Ocon on softs in P5 and P6.

*Sainz and Ocon

[Ivanhoe]

ARTGP, on 01 May 2021 - 20:28, said:

Judging how Mercedes repeated their tactic from last season, needing 2 laps to get the medium tire going, should we expect them to be out in the doldrums on the first lap like last year? Could make for an interesting start with Norris and Ocon on softs in P5 and P6.

And then they even had DAS

[TomNokoe]

Astandahl, on 01 May 2021 - 19:13, said:

Soft tyres will be a huge liability tomorrow. They were suffering from graining in FP already... The drivers will have to deal with it in order to make the 1 stop strategy work.

Medium will be much faster after only few laps and they will last longer.

I'm not so sure, there were some good Soft tyre runs already on Friday.

 

Gasly

Spoiler

Out

25.183

25.100

24.864

24.601

24.596

24.574

24.489

24.334

24.584

24.607

In

 

Ocon

Spoiler

Out

24.687

25.018

24.832

24.760

24.670

25.060

25.449

24.893

25.004

24.577

24.222

24.064

23.942

In

 

Plus the stints above were already compromised by the tyres being ran very hard on the FP2 short runs with multiple flying laps, compared to Out-Warm-Hot-In today.

 

Looking back to last year, the top three midfielders (Gasly, Sainz, Perez) spent most of the race on the Medium and did not touch the Hard. Gasly had an opening stint of 28 laps on Softs, started P9 finished P5.

 

It's definitely chassis specific, but I think Soft-Med will be perfectly fine tomorrow. You get instant warmup for the first few laps, the degradation looks okay, and it opens up your strategy so that you can pit onto the Medium instead of the Hard, which is just a plain better tyre for the second stint in terms of warmup and pace.

 

Sainz could trouble the Red Bulls again on lap 1, and I must admit I'm slightly fearful for Leclerc who is surrounded by drivers on Softs, he could get swamped.

Edited by TomNokoe, 01 May 2021 - 20:35.

[StanByk]

Hi all, 

I didn't watch  qualifying, but just had a look at the times and noticed that Q3 was slower than Q2 by quite a bit. Does anyone know why? Did the weather/temperature change a lot?

 

Thanks in advance!

Edited by StanByk, 01 May 2021 - 20:35.

[TheWilliamzer]

StanByk, on 01 May 2021 - 20:34, said:

Hi all, 

I didn't watch  qualifying, but just had a look at the times and noticed that Q3 was slower than Q2 by quite a bit. Does anyone know why? Did the weather/temperature change a lot?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

the wind dramatically picked up

[StanByk]

TheWilliamzer, on 01 May 2021 - 20:38, said:

the wind dramatically picked up

 

Thanks!

[cpbell]

Claymore25, on 01 May 2021 - 19:24, said:

I think he just was out of pace. No report of issues in the car ATM.

Cheers.

[zibby43]

yolo, on 01 May 2021 - 20:20, said:

Reading comprehension isn’t your forte. I never said Portimao would favour RB; if anything the lack of fast front-limited corners would help Merc vs RB. Also, this track is less power sensitive than the previous two which helps narrow the power deficit Merc has over 1 lap.

As for 2020, Portimao was more dominant than any of the races you mentioned. Merc narrowly won Silverstone (and lost 70th GP), and Verstappen split the two Mercs and finished 25s behind HAM at Barcelona (vs 35s in Portimao).

 

I'm guessing you didn't watch the British GP last year, where Hamilton "narrowly won" despite driving the last lap with 3 tires. The 70th Anniversary GP was where Pirelli went with the balloon tire pressures and Merc was sliding around in the race despite out-qualifying RB by *over* 1 second.

 

I dunno, but a 1s gap to the RB there seems pretty dominant. 

 

PS: This is all from you, homeskillet:

 

"Portimao I think is a bit closer to Bahrain than it is to Imola as you have a few traction-heavy sections and most fast corners are actually power-limited as opposed to front-limited."

 

"Based on what we saw in Bahrain, Imola plays into RB’s strengths and Merc’s weaknesses. Unless Merc can make further balance improvements on the base package and perhaps introduce some upgrades, I see another damage limitation race ahead."

 

I didn't want to go back any further where you were buying into Shovlin's claims, hook, line and sinker, that Merc were going to struggle relative to RB at Imola and Portimao, but I remember that, too. 

 

No need for the lame personal jab.  I was just having a bit of fun.  In the past, you said both Portimao and Imola were like Bahrain (Merc's weakest performance of the season where only masterful strategy secured the win).  In reality, those circuits are all very dissimilar from either layout, lap length, or circuit abrasiveness standpoints.

 

The real point is, I don't think the '20 performances will be definitive guides to '21 performances, as both the rules and tires have changed. 

Edited by zibby43, 01 May 2021 - 22:16.

[Yaffa0]

Was this now the 17th time Hamilton lost against Bottas? Quite a lot if Bottas is that bad as the naysayers here say…

[MasterOfCoin]

Yaffa0, on 01 May 2021 - 22:18, said:

Was this now the 17th time Hamilton lost against Bottas? Quite a lot if Bottas is that bad as the naysayers here say…

He's not bad, but he's a bit of a one trick qualy pony....slower in races/rain...

[Clatter]

Yaffa0, on 01 May 2021 - 22:18, said:

Was this now the 17th time Hamilton lost against Bottas? Quite a lot if Bottas is that bad as the naysayers here say…

 

You do realise that the points are awarded on Sunday.

[gillesfan76]

Clatter, on 01 May 2021 - 23:47, said:

You do realise that the points are awarded on Sunday.

 

I think the OP’s point is still valid as a rebuttal to those who pretend Valtteri isn’t good at anything and his times are no benchmark. In fact that very term “we all know Bottas is no benchmark” was used recently. I contest that Bottas is generally up there in qualifying. Not always at Lewis’ level, but on his (Satur)day, he’s as quick or quicker in qualifying as the very, very best.

 

His main issue is race pace, wheel to wheel and general consistency (thus your post that points are awarded on Sunday is 100% correct). In qualifying, his consistency isn’t terrible but can still be a bit up and down. For example and in comparison, if Valtteri has a great qualifying and Lewis not, Lewis is consistently within 2 tenths. It’s rare, although not unheard of, for Lewis to be 5 tenths behind. Whereas with Valtteri, if he’s not having a great day in qualifying, then he’s often 5 tenths behind. But the point is, on Saturday’s he’s often a threat. While on Sunday, he often isn’t.

[gillesfan76]

Jordan44, on 01 May 2021 - 19:04, said:

Lewis Hamilton suffered mechanical issues during qualifying that we didn’t know about:

https://twitter.com/...7125037056?s=21

 

Car breaker....

[Bleu]

Yaffa0, on 01 May 2021 - 22:18, said:

Was this now the 17th time Hamilton lost against Bottas? Quite a lot if Bottas is that bad as the naysayers here say…

 

11 more where Bottas has been ahead in qualifying with neither getting pole.

 

2017 Russia, Monaco, Hungary

2018 Bahrain, China, Canada, Germany

2019 Austria, Hungary, Japan

2020 Abu Dhabi

 

Of course there's that German race where Lewis had a failure in Q1 so he couldn't compete for the top places in the end.

[anyeis]

https://www.formula1...n_Portugal.html

 

Hamilton was ahead before last corner.

[Yaffa0]

Clatter, on 01 May 2021 - 23:47, said:

You do realise that the points are awarded on Sunday.

[Yaffa0]

I do and you are absolutely right. But he has been sometimes better even on Sundays. And sometimes he has been forced to give the race to Lewis like in Russia couple years ago where Lewis couldn’t win on his own merit. Despite all the bad things said about him, he has delivered the manufacturer’s title to Merc, being mostly 2nd, and has been consistent in that way.

[ARTGP]

anyeis, on 02 May 2021 - 06:05, said:

https://www.formula1...n_Portugal.html

 

Hamilton was ahead before last corner.

 

That's one way to look at it. To me, they we dead even in sector 1. Then Valterri gained 2.5 tenths in sector 2.  But then Lewis gained the 2.5 tenths back entirely in Turn 13. Comparing how both drivers took turn 13, Lewis definitely carried about as much speed as you would want to. He's a bit wide of the apex with the speed, but it completely erases the deficit to Valterri who in contrast probably took the corner a bit too conservatively. Then he just get's outdragged to the line by Valterri.

Edited by ARTGP, 02 May 2021 - 06:45.

[Widefoot2]

gillesfan76, on 02 May 2021 - 05:15, said:

Car breaker....

He already lost his front wing and bargeboards.  With no downforce he'll be plummeting down the ranks at the start.

[prty]

gillesfan76, on 02 May 2021 - 05:11, said:

I think the OP’s point is still valid as a rebuttal to those who pretend Valtteri isn’t good at anything and his times are no benchmark. In fact that very term “we all know Bottas is no benchmark” was used recently. I contest that Bottas is generally up there in qualifying. Not always at Lewis’ level, but on his (Satur)day, he’s as quick or quicker in qualifying as the very, very best.

His main issue is race pace, wheel to wheel and general consistency (thus your post that points are awarded on Sunday is 100% correct). In qualifying, his consistency isn’t terrible but can still be a bit up and down. For example and in comparison, if Valtteri has a great qualifying and Lewis not, Lewis is consistently within 2 tenths. It’s rare, although not unheard of, for Lewis to be 5 tenths behind. Whereas with Valtteri, if he’s not having a great day in qualifying, then he’s often 5 tenths behind. But the point is, on Saturday’s he’s often a threat. While on Sunday, he often isn’t.

Most F1 drivers can beat anyone when they have a good day. Losing 18-0 in qualifying or race is extremely rare.
What makes a good driver is being able to have good days consistently. And Bottas just isn't capable of that.

[Yaffa0]

And when he has his good day, he has to give the win to Lewis, like in Russia. And there are other examples as well when the team has played totally other tactics with BOT than with HAM just to cover maximum points to HAM.

[Lights]

anyeis, on 02 May 2021 - 06:05, said:

https://www.formula1...n_Portugal.html

 

Hamilton was ahead before last corner.

 

They used the wrong video of Hamilton (I guess it's his 2nd Q2 lap), because you can clearly see and hear him lifting after 1:15 and being passed by an Alpha Tauri before the end of the lap.

 

And I wouldn't trust the LIVE GAP visualization to be 100% correct either.

[ARTGP]

Lights, on 02 May 2021 - 07:08, said:

They used the wrong video of Hamilton (I guess it's his 2nd Q2 lap), because you can clearly see and hear him lifting after 1:15 and being passed by an Alpha Tauri before the end of the lap.

 

And I wouldn't trust the LIVE GAP visualization to be 100% correct either.

 

You are correct. I stopped watching after Turn 14 and didn't see that part. This is how shall I put it.....shambolic 

[MortenF1]

They need to be told! That is shambolic indeed!

[w1Y]

This is bottas opportunity. If he gets beat on pace today then he will be crushed mentally imo.

1st lap is going to be mayhem.

Max could easily be leading if his tyres switch on quicker.

What was the difference between clean and dirty side last year?

[MJB5990]

Valtteri got jumped by P3 last year but took it back in T2.

Overcut will surely be the strategy today.

[Ali623]

Last year was madness at the start with half the field not getting their tyres switched on, could we see something similar today?

[Requiem84]

Ali623, on 02 May 2021 - 08:41, said:

Last year was madness at the start with half the field not getting their tyres switched on, could we see something similar today?

Last year there was some minor drizzle before the start I think?

I think we will see the same as last year, but much much less extreme (the tire delta was 2-3 seconds/lap last year in the first laps dependent on who got the tires working).

[PayasYouRace]

Ali623, on 02 May 2021 - 08:41, said:

Last year was madness at the start with half the field not getting their tyres switched on, could we see something similar today?

 

I hope so.

[Hellenic tifosi]

MJB5990, on 02 May 2021 - 08:25, said:

Valtteri got jumped by P3 last year but took it back in T2.

Overcut will surely be the strategy today.

If getting the hards to work proves problematic for the first couple laps, then surely the overcut could work.

[yolo]

MJB5990, on 02 May 2021 - 08:25, said:

Valtteri got jumped by P3 last year but took it back in T2.

Overcut will surely be the strategy today.

 

Difference is only Mercs were on mediums last year. This year, top 4 is on mediums.

[w1Y]

yolo, on 02 May 2021 - 09:12, said:

Difference is only Mercs were on mediums last year. This year, top 4 is on mediums.

This is a good point. So really getting off the line is even more important as if not you may get swamped by the soft drivers

[Jovanotti]

[ferrarista]

yolo, on 01 May 2021 - 20:20, said:

Reading comprehension isn’t your forte. I never said Portimao would favour RB; if anything the lack of fast front-limited corners would help Merc vs RB. Also, this track is less power sensitive than the previous two which helps narrow the power deficit Merc has over 1 lap.

As for 2020, Portimao was more dominant than any of the races you mentioned. Merc narrowly won Silverstone (and lost 70th GP), and Verstappen split the two Mercs and finished 25s behind HAM at Barcelona (vs 35s in Portimao).

on the engine side, apparently Honda thinks otherwise, they are not top level yet https://www.formula1...gxRedUsurx.html

quickest Q3 minisectors seem to agree https://mobile.twitt...516326348632067

Edited by ferrarista, 02 May 2021 - 10:24.

[renzmann]

P3 isn't a bad place to start from for Verstappen, actually. Last year, he flew past Bottas rather easily. If it's Bottas - Verstappen - Hamilton - Perez after lap 1 and the high fuel load Mercedes aren't extremely fast on mediums, it's going to be fireworks. If that doesn't happen, I'm afraid I'll be overanalyzing midfield battles today as if it were 2020.

[Ivanhoe]

Verstappen started on softs last year though.

[monolulu]

So are Red bull going M-H & Merc M-S ?

[sennamaster]

Wasn’t there a very mild shower last year as well that caused a bit of chaos on the 1st lap. It helped those with softer tyres get switched on quickly

[ConsiderAndGo]

Is it as windy was it was yesterday? It’s certainly warmer.

[davidbuckden]

I'm hopeful the more sensible helmet design has done the trick!

I still think (hope) he can reassert himself.

[yolo]

renzmann, on 02 May 2021 - 10:29, said:

P3 isn't a bad place to start from for Verstappen, actually. Last year, he flew past Bottas rather easily. If it's Bottas - Verstappen - Hamilton - Perez after lap 1 and the high fuel load Mercedes aren't extremely fast on mediums, it's going to be fireworks. If that doesn't happen, I'm afraid I'll be overanalyzing midfield battles today as if it were 2020.

 

Verstappen started on softs vs mediums for Bottas, and Bottas reclaimed P2 at T3 rather easily by staying on the inside through T1-3.

 

This year, Verstappen is on the same mediums as Mercedes.

[Beamer]

Nemo1965, on 01 May 2021 - 18:40, said:

Max Verstappen said to Dutch television that this track did not really suit 'us' (he said 'us' in Dutch, an annoying habit, because with Dutch sportspeople you never know if they mean 'us' as in the team or that they are, once again, referring to themselves in the plural. Dutch football-players often say: 'We were really happy with the result.' And they mean: they, as an individual were happy with the result. Yes, I know... )

Anyway, in this case I think he really meant Red Bull with 'we' (or us). And he said something interesting, IMHO: 'Next time we will have a regular track again.' He used the Dutch word 'normaal'. For the non-Dutchies: if a Dutchman says, when comparing two things and he says of one of them: that one is 'normaal', it is implied that the other is implicitly not 'normaal', so to be derided.

In short, (exasperated): I don't think Max likes this track.

Being Dutch, unless someone has a mental issue (or is a royal, same difference) and talks about him/her self in 3rd person, nobody , not even soccer players, means themself ( as in 'me') when saying 'us' or 'we'. It always refers to themselves + team around them.