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Should Max take a new engine for Saudi GP


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#1 RA2

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:35

Should or shouldn't?

To defend the points lead and attack, Max seems to be running a few horses short against the fresher engines on lewis's car.

With a newer engine a high chance of pole or second in qualifying, so he starts 7 th. But if Redbull play the same with Gasly and Peraz, get them into the top 5, then Max starts 5th.

With a Ferrari or McLaren between him and the Mercedes, and a fresh engine, it shouldn't be too difficult to get to the back of Lewis soon.

The circuit is going to be slippery, and easy overtaking in the second half of the lap, passing for Max is not going to be too much of an issue.

The engine will also be great for the last race at Abu Dhabi, without having to run conservative at any point in the last 2 races.

Edited by RA2, 24 November 2021 - 17:48.


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#2 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:41

No, rumours are that he’ll have a Suzuka Special for Jeddah!



#3 YamahaV10

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:45

No. Mainly because this wasn't the reason for Hamiltons speed in Brazil anyway. These teams did not just stumble into this idea that they can tailor their engines for an advantage with 4 races left.

If that was the case Mercedes could have used strategy all year and have won the title by now

#4 Eyeshield

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:46

Why does this warrant a new thread?

To answer your question, maybe he should. They need all the power they can get to beat the Mercedes outfit, even if only a few extra HP. Taking the penalty at Jeddah does seem a little bit risky though. Ideally you want to be starting at the front when a new circuit is being raced at.


Edited by Eyeshield, 24 November 2021 - 17:49.


#5 Squeed

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:47

Nobody here has access to the data to answer the poll question. 



#6 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 17:55

Nobody here has access to the data to answer the poll question. 

Fair point. You could argue the same for other threads as well though, for example the ‘The who would you rather be….’ thread.



#7 Risil

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:01

The chatter among the journos is that a new Mercedes engine is worth more relative to a seasoned one than a new Honda. I would expect Red Bull will be aggressive to keep Mercedes at bay because Lewis won't need to be asked twice to win the remaining races, so I guess we'll learn something about how much a new Honda is worth.

The problem with taking a grid penalty is that starting from a maximum 6th on the grid there is no way you and Perez will get to the first corner ahead of Lewis. Which is surely still Max's best hope.

#8 engineblock1

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:01

Track position is crucial on street circuits. So no.

With SC highly likely, the race will be won on tactical grounds more than raw performance.



#9 DeKnyff

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:05

Yes.

 

A P3 finish, at least, is guaranteed, even with a penalty and P2 or P3 is the same for the WDC.

 

What he needs at all costs is to win Abu Dhabi. I'd take a new engine for Saudi Arabia and the grid penalty which comes with, but I wouldn't race it and keep it for Abu Dhabi.


Edited by DeKnyff, 24 November 2021 - 20:00.


#10 Squeed

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:06

Fair point. You could argue the same for other threads as well though, for example the ‘The who would you rather be….’ thread.

 

I think that considering whether or not a new ICE is a smart tactical choice is much more cut-and-dried technical data decision than "who would you rather be?"

Either the new ICE is worth enough lap time to provide an advantage despite the grid penalty, or it isn't.  


Edited by Squeed, 24 November 2021 - 18:07.


#11 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:07

Yes.

 

A P3 finish, at least, is guaranteed, even with a penalty and P2 or P3 is the same for the WDC.

 

What he needs at all costs is to win Abu Dhabi. I'd take a new engine for Saudi Arabia taking a grid penalty, but I wouldn't race and keep it for Abu Dhabi.

Red Bull seem to think they can be competitive in SA though. It’s a tough call, but I don’t think they’ll take a new engine.



#12 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:09

I think that considering whether or not a new ICE is a smart tactical choice is much more cut-and-dried technical data decision than "who would you rather be?"

Either the new ICE is worth enough lap time to provide an advantage despite the grid penalty, or it isn't.  

Don’t know, I think it comes down to the same unknown answer on the question how the cars will relatively compare to each other in the last two races (wether with or without an engine change). We’re missing a lot of data for both questions, which only can be answered on gut feeling.



#13 TheFish

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:12

If there's any chance of a failure of his current allocation then he should, otherwise it's a no IMO.

 

If he goes to Abu Dhabi ahead in the standings then he could afford a double DNF. Taking an engine penalty makes that less likely.



#14 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:14

Answer to this question depends on how much a Honda special for 2 races is worth.

Yes Honda said a new ICE is only worth a tenth. But that is a standard 7 weekend ICE. Did Honda ever discuss the possibility to go for the Mercedes route?

Let’s hypothetically say it’s worth 3 tenths, then I think it is a very serious option to be able to win in AD.

Second consideration though: how strong will they be in Jeddah? If the track really suits the RB, then Jeddah might be the track where RB can win (and shouldnt take the penalty).

#15 TheFish

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:18

The only other scenario where I think it's worth it is if they get to Jeddah and they're nowhere compared to Merc. Whether it's track layout, the extra 400bhp that Merc have, the track surface or whatever, if they have no real hope of winning there, it might be worth taking a penalty to increase their chances in Abu Dhabi.



#16 as65p

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:21

Answer to this question depends on how much a Honda special for 2 races is worth.

Yes Honda said a new ICE is only worth a tenth. But that is a standard 7 weekend ICE. Did Honda ever discuss the possibility to go for the Mercedes route?

Let’s hypothetically say it’s worth 3 tenths, then I think it is a very serious option to be able to win in AD.


 

 

It's been my understand that they simply can't do that technically with their engine (not that I would know why not). I'm pretty sure if it were only a question of effort and / or money, they would consider it.



#17 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:23

It's been my understand that they simply can't do that technically with their engine (not that I would know why not). I'm pretty sure if it were only a question of effort and / or money, they would consider it.


The latest vague rumors (see RB thread) are that Honda will the ICE’s harder in Jeddah, giving 15HP more. If this is even somewhat accurate, it seems there is some untapped potential.

#18 FullOppositeLock

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:29

No. Max needs to beat Lewis in one of the two remaining weekends. It would be mad to throw one chance of doing this for only a slightly better chance at the other.

#19 as65p

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:30

The latest vague rumors (see RB thread) are that Honda will the ICE’s harder in Jeddah, giving 15HP more. If this is even somewhat accurate, it seems there is some untapped potential.

Okay. Not that I would complain. Well, not unless it breaks, at least.  ;)



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#20 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:31

No. Max needs to beat Lewis in one of the two remaining weekends. It would be mad to throw one chance of doing this for only a slightly better chance at the other.


I don’t think it de facto is mad.

If you can calculate that you have 2 50% chances if you do nothing, but 1 85% chance if you change the ICE, it certainly is a strategy to consider.

#21 Erwin123

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:35

What they really need is to find what trick Mercedes decided to risk between Mexico and Brazil, because it sure as hell isn't just 'a fresh engine'.
 


Edited by Erwin123, 24 November 2021 - 18:37.


#22 Rodaknee

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:38

According to the latest video from Mercedes, Hamilton's engine at the last race was an old one.  Looks like they've got a real stonker waiting for the next couple of races.



#23 Squeed

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:38

Don’t know, I think it comes down to the same unknown answer on the question how the cars will relatively compare to each other in the last two races (wether with or without an engine change). We’re missing a lot of data for both questions, which only can be answered on gut feeling.

 

Fair point.  The Saudi track is very narrow with almost no run off, so the likelihood of safety cars is something we could consider in terms of overcoming a grid penalty. 



#24 FullOppositeLock

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:42

I don’t think it de facto is mad.

If you can calculate that you have 2 50% chances if you do nothing, but 1 85% chance if you change the ICE, it certainly is a strategy to consider.


I think it would be wrong to take p2 for granted. This looks like the kind of track where overtaking e.g. a McLaren may not be straightforward, lest we have forgotten what happened at Monza.

#25 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:47

According to the latest video from Mercedes, Hamilton's engine at the last race was an old one.  Looks like they've got a real stonker waiting for the next couple of races.

‘Old’ is a relative term nowadays for Mercedes engines, it had 3 GP’s on the counter,



#26 Squeed

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:49

I think it would be wrong to take p2 for granted. This looks like the kind of track where overtaking e.g. a McLaren may not be straightforward, lest we have forgotten what happened at Monza.

 

The Saudi track will make overtaking almost impossible with less than a 2sec delta, but it's likely to produce more than 1 safety car.  



#27 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 18:59

I think it would be wrong to take p2 for granted. This looks like the kind of track where overtaking e.g. a McLaren may not be straightforward, lest we have forgotten what happened at Monza.


P2 isn’t needed if you win the next race.

#28 Whitelightning

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:02

Horner said the difference between the start and end of an engines life is around 1 tenth for the Honda engines. I thought the same but actually the reliability is obviously a strong point so no need as it won’t provide much laptime anyway.

#29 PitViperRacing

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:15

I think Red Bull is banking on being on the front row for Saudi. If max can be in the lead after turn one he's got a very good chance of winning the race. It'll be extremely difficult to follow on this circuit.

#30 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:17

I think Red Bull is banking on being on the front row for Saudi. If max can be in the lead after turn one he's got a very good chance of winning the race. It'll be extremely difficult to follow on this circuit.


That would mean RB is putting all hopes on a super start (and on getting P2…).

Risky choice to risk everything on a single moment I think.

#31 TennisUK

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:23

The race will likely be littered with safety cars so the prospect of losing significant time to Lewis (assuming Lewis is on pole and leads and Max qualified second and gets a pen, then takes a few laps to work his through 5 cars) is reduced. If I were Max I’d go for a new engine then keep it in a box until AD and aim for second or third in SA with the current motor. That would also ease any lingering fears about the reliability of that engine.

#32 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:24

They can wait and see how Friday goes, before making a decision.



#33 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:27

Yeah step 1 is to have a feel for how strong they are in Jeddah.

If they feel extremely confident no change. If they don’t feel confident, they should consider it. I think Max only needs P5 in Jeddah if he can win in AD (assuming no FL points for both guys).

P5 should always be feasible right?

#34 TennisUK

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:30

Yeah step 1 is to have a feel for how strong they are in Jeddah.

If they feel extremely confident no change. If they don’t feel confident, they should consider it. I think Max only needs P5 in Jeddah if he can win in AD (assuming no FL points for both guys).

P5 should always be feasible right?


Exactly. He doesn’t need to come second in SA because it will all come down to who wins in AD any way.

Assuming, that is, that nothing mad happens in SA. And the chance of that happening is fairly evenly weighted between the two contenders.

#35 Calum

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:30

‘Old’ is a relative term nowadays for Mercedes engines, it had 3 GP’s on the counter,

 

We are guilty, as a forum, of talking about Merc engine degradation like it rots away to a Honda 2015-spec over the course of 3 weekends though!  :lol:



#36 Ivanhoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:31

Exactly. He doesn’t need to come second in SA because it will all come down to who wins in AD any way.

Assuming, that is, that nothing mad happens in SA. And the chance of that happening is fairly evenly weighted between the two contenders.

I think both would want to go to AD leading the WDC. I think it gives you a psychological advantage.



#37 P123

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 19:43

The Honda doesn't seem to suffer from the same performance degradation as the Merc, so the performance gain from aged to new isn't as beneficial for them.  However it may be worth it if they go to AD with a decent points cushion and a new unit gives them a bit of extra security.  They can still win the championship in Jeddah with Max, so probably too much of a risk there to put themselves a few places back on the grid when at worst they will start front row.



#38 ARTGP

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 21:15

It's a decision that you make after FP2. 



#39 ARTGP

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 21:16

We are guilty, as a forum, of talking about Merc engine degradation like it rots away to a Honda 2015-spec over the course of 3 weekends though!  :lol:

 

According to Renault boss, it rots away to a Renault spec after 3-4 weekends as Renault seemed to track the performance of AM and Mclaren.  It also could explain why Williams don't look that good anymore and Mclaren is no longer class of the field in a straight line. The degradation is a big issue for them.  The customers have only been given 4 engines. If you did the math, you'd arrive at 16 races with decent performance, and 6 or 7 GP at below par performance if you only used 4 PUs.


Edited by ARTGP, 24 November 2021 - 21:19.


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#40 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 21:18

According to Renault boss, it rots away to a Renault spec after 3-4 weekends. The degradation is a big issue for them.


How does Renault know deg of other PU’s? And didn’t Ricciardo have a much fresher PU than Norris, but he’s not putting the world at fire..?

#41 ARTGP

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 21:22

How does Renault know deg of other PU’s? And didn’t Ricciardo have a much fresher PU than Norris, but he’s not putting the world at fire..?

 

The teams use GPS to track PU performance. The kind of stuff that AMUS publishes, but the teams are experts at doing these calculations. Alpine claim this is part of why they looked more competitive in Qatar.  The Merc customer teams are running dog mode in order to make the end of the season lol.

 

Also,  Ricciardo had the new engine only in Turkey, Norris had the new engine in Austin (?). In any case, as mentioned above, they have to make the end of the season on that 4th PU, so they have to run it conservatively. I don't think any customer is running the Interlagos modes of Hamilton.


Edited by ARTGP, 24 November 2021 - 21:24.


#42 Requiem84

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 21:46

If they can actually gos measure the difference between a new and used PU, it indeed will be quite a substantial difference (more than 1 tenth a lap at least).

#43 PitViperRacing

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:18

The teams use GPS to track PU performance. The kind of stuff that AMUS publishes, but the teams are experts at doing these calculations. Alpine claim this is part of why they looked more competitive in Qatar. The Merc customer teams are running dog mode in order to make the end of the season lol.

Also, Ricciardo had the new engine only in Turkey, Norris had the new engine in Austin (?). In any case, as mentioned above, they have to make the end of the season on that 4th PU, so they have to run it conservatively. I don't think any customer is running the Interlagos modes of Hamilton.


Maybe Red Bull is banking on this degradation to happen quicker due to the engine mode, so they're confident into even out in Saudi Arabia/Abu Dhabi?

#44 ARTGP

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:26

Maybe Red Bull is banking on this degradation to happen quicker due to the engine mode, so they're confident into even out in Saudi Arabia/Abu Dhabi?

 

The fact that Mercedes did not deploy the Interlagos PU in Qatar, despite the fact that it should easily be able to do 4GP distances, suggest the degradation is large.


Edited by ARTGP, 24 November 2021 - 23:27.


#45 Bliman

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:42

I always thought it would be smart if they would place everything on Abu Dhabi and I said it before. It is better to have one extremely good chance than 2 mediocre chances.

And that is if Max hasn't already got the title in the next race.

It will also be impossible for Mercedes to counter it. So to me, that looks to be the smartest way. in the worst scenario, you lose a battle but have a great chance of winning the war.


Edited by Bliman, 24 November 2021 - 23:56.


#46 TomNokoe

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:52

It's a tough decision. I think RB have more chance of winning Saudi old engine than Abu Dhabi new engine, but at the same time you want your weapons sharp for the finale.

Conversely, if they don't take the penalty and still lose Saudi, I think it's very difficult to beat Mercedes in Abu Dhabi with an old engine.

Considering the high likelihood of safety cars in Saudi, it's worth a gamble.

#47 Heyli

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:55

No



#48 Kao18

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 23:58

I don’t think it de facto is mad.

If you can calculate that you have 2 50% chances if you do nothing, but 1 85% chance if you change the ICE, it certainly is a strategy to consider.


In what world can RB calculate a chance of 85% of winning AD? They cant. Impossible.

Max hasnt scored lower than 2nd the whole season, RB would be mad to throw away an 8 point lead without Lewis even having to do something for it, no pressure, and without any guarantees whatsoever they will have the better car in AD.

What RB needs to do is pump everything they can out of the engine for these last two races, make sure they have a proper functiong low df rear wing, go through all possible scenarios and strategies and leave the rest up to Max.

#49 Kao18

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Posted 25 November 2021 - 00:41

Worst case scenario for Max is he will start P3 in both races, even then he will twice have a chance to pass Lewis at the start, not impossible as we have seen a few times already this season.

Being ahead in the wdc going into the last race also will give a big psychological advantage, Lewis cant afford a dnf and knows he will have to back out of any 50/50 situation with Max should it come to that.

I am all for keeping the pressure as high as possible on Lewis. Pressure can lead to mistakes.

#50 kumo7

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Posted 25 November 2021 - 00:44

More like wat of PU? ICU only with much less damage, and limit the penalty to 5 grid positions, may be.

H and K, perhaps I mean perhaps makes not much difference.