12 replies to this topic

[le chat noir]

80 points is the gap at the top.
And 97 in the constructors.
9 races still to run. And one sprint in Brazil.
32 points separate second and sixth.
With only 30 between second and third in the constructors.

Ferrari still appear to have the fastest package, but ridiculously error prone.
Red Bull remain metronomic.
Mercedes are on the rise.

How does this play out?
What will be the final standings?

With 4 weeks to the next race now is the time to tell your story of 2022.

For me, I see it ending Max, from Lewis, from Charles, George, Carlos and Sergio.

Red Bull, from Mercedes and then Ferrari.

The gap may close slightly but but second to sixth will remain crazy close. There’ll be grid penalties, crashes, breakdowns.
Will Lewis get his pole and win? Can Carlos beat Leclerc on merit. Will Charles score another podium? Can Max win 14 (6 from 9)?

I’d love to read some race by race suggestions.

[messy]

I think the Ferrari is the fastest over one lap most places, but Red Bull have that stunning one-lap speed and I think that gives them an edge over a race distance. Firstly because it aids overtaking particularly in DRS zones, but also because straight line speed isn’t something that degrades over time like tyres etc do, so it maybe remains an advantage for longer than Ferrari’s gains. Verstappen, even if he starts second or third behind the Ferraris, is generally able to engineer himself into a position where he can open the DRS and use that mighty top speed to take track position. So generally, I think now they’ve mostly sorted their reliability, Red Bull are in an almost perfect position.

Ferrari’s season has been pathetic aside from the car itself, and the drivers. They’ve done everything they can to wreck any chance of winning pretty much every time they get the chance. They can point to Spain and France as ‘certain wins’ lost but I don’t buy that, I think Max would have found himself in that familiar ‘open DRS and blast past’ position in at least one of those races.

Mercedes, here’s a prediction, I think they’ll win multiple races after the summer break, and I think they’ll beat Ferrari to second in the WCC. Their reliability has been bulletproof and they’ve started to get on top of the car, even if they don’t always seem to quite know why. And Lewis is back at his absolute best now I reckon. I really get the impression that he’s started to get George in his pocket now, he’s back to the kind of level that just looks effortless, and he’s superb over a race distance - if he puts it up there in qualifying I think he’ll start winning and is maybe the biggest threat to Max again. So I kinda wonder if the second part of 2022 is going to look slightly more like 2021, with Leclerc thinking “hang on, this was supposed to be me vs Max this year!”

Alpine are on the up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more good results for them. McLaren also look better, Norris will continue to do his thing and rack up points but Ricciardo is showing flashes of getting back to some sort of decent form too. Haas will pop up right at the front of midfield a few more times and be anonymous otherwise.

For me, those are the ascendent teams and there are then a few who started really well but have tailed off. Alfa Romeo really seem to have run out of steam with Bottas in a similar way to Raikkonen in 2019. I hope that reverses but (again, like 2019) the points seem to be drying up and all the while the second driver is starting to look more competitive. Bottas scored so many points early on, I’d like to see him get back to that but it just feels like they’ve ran out of puff a bit. AlphaTauri too, both Gasly (who’s really not having much of a season) and Tsunoda seem to be dropping off and just anonymous much of the time. Which also is where Aston Martin have been all season. Similarly, seeing less Albon heroics now and Williams maybe dropping back away from points contention too.

So yeah, I think Max has done the job already, personally.

[flyboym3]

The championship battle is boring 80pts at the half way point.

The most interesting thing left is guessing how many races left before max secures the title mathematically.

At the minute he can go on vacation for at least 3 races and still be in the lead.

F1 need to make changes to get it closer for next year.

https://twitter.com/...788066338377730

[FirstnameLastname]

Max has the title in the bag surely

Most interesting thing now is who can ‘win’ second place?

And can Mercedes’ get a win in the final 9 races?

Triple header will be a lot of fun at the end of august.

[Anderis]

F1 need to make changes to get it closer for next year.

Do you mean coercing Ferrari to replace their strategists for someone more competent?

[LolaB0860]

The tight constructors battle between McLaren and Renault-Alpine will be interesting, beyond that... can Sauber sink any lower from the good start? Ferrari will obviously lose to Red Bull right and center but I don't think Mercedes, despite good effort, can clinch the 2nd place

 

I'm looking forward to Spa, Zandvoort and Monza after the break (Nashville and Gateway in between) but beyond that it starts to get exhausting again. Thankfully there should be little at stake by the time Abu Boring rolls over, so no need to follow quite as closely

Edited by LolaB0860, 31 July 2022 - 20:54.

[flyboym3]

Do you mean coercing Ferrari to replace their strategists for someone more competent?

I don't think fia/liberty can rely on ferrari to make the championship challenge interesting, not just because of this year but for about 15 years now.

I have to look further down the pack for excitement which is OK but I can't do this for another year, I think fans will start dialling out.

We seem to have formula1 and formula2 cars in an f1 race and liberty need to figure it out.

Its not lost on me those with 'f1' cars have close allegiances to b-teams but speculation on my part if there's anything to it.

[William Hunt]

Red Bull and Ferrari are too far ahead with their car. And Mercedes probably too. One, two or sometimes three teams far ahead unfortunately is something we are used to in F1 since the McLaren domination that started in '88 (folowed by Williams domination '92-'93, Ferrari domination in Schummi era, lately we had Red Bull domination followed by Mercedes domination and now again Red Bull domination with Ferrari messing up races). In the '70s until halfway the '80s F1 was so unpredictable and as a result more exciting. I dislike teams dominating, it's so boring.
I just wish we had not 2 (or 3) but around 6 teams able to win.

Edited by William Hunt, 31 July 2022 - 21:44.

[LolaB0860]

It is boring, at times even very boring. But very boring is still way better than fake entertaining. Just as I used to say with Le Mans, I will gladly watch Audi LMP1 honestly winning the race by 20 laps than artificially close 'rubbin is racin' wrestling show like they have in LMH / LMDH / GTE / GT3 etc with 50 entries. And similarly, one or two (best budgeted) teams always dominating F1 is infinitely better than theoretical reality show version of it. It's still a sport and will remain that way for as long as they don't sell souls to the devil.

The fans will stick to the series, just as they did during every other domination period, so no need to panic. This isn't NASCAR and it's ageing demographics and 50's technology

Edited by LolaB0860, 31 July 2022 - 22:30.

[MaroF1]

The championship battle is boring 80pts at the half way point.

The most interesting thing left is guessing how many races left before max secures the title mathematically.

At the minute he can go on vacation for at least 3 races and still be in the lead.

F1 need to make changes to get it closer for next year.

https://twitter.com/...788066338377730

I bet you werent saying this in 2014-2020.

[PayasYouRace]

The great thing about F1 now is that the racing is so good we can more easily ignore that the championships are basically decided at this point. It’s a shame Ferrari’s challenge has fallen apart so badly after their great start to the season, but with Mercedes in the picture at most races now at least each race will be hard fought.

[thefinalapex]

I bet you werent saying this in 2014-2020.

 

Of course not because his boy was winning those years.

[flyboym3]

I bet you werent saying this in 2014-2020.

I didn't need to.
2014-2016 was a great battle with nico.
2017-2018 was a great battle with vettel, who lead both years at halfway point.
2019 was a good battle vs. cheating engine that took too many poles.
2020 was boring yeah.

Nobody had an 80 point lead at halfway point.