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2024 F1 silly-season


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#1 HistoryFan

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 20:41

So with all 20 seats confirmed for 2023, let's have a look about the field in 2024.

I think it will be a boring silly-season as at least 9 drivers are confirmed for 2024.

 

Red Bull

Max Verstappen (contract to 2028)

Sergio Pérez (contract to 2024)

 

=> But it's not impossible Pérez has to leave the team as there are some troubles with Verstappen. Ricciardo could be in if Pérez retires.

 

Mercedes

George Russell (contract to 2023)

Lewis Hamilton (contract to 2023)

 

=> Both drivers are out of contract at the end of 2023 but it's said both will stay at Mercedes.

 

Ferrari

Charles Leclerc (contract to 2024)

Carlos Sainz (contract to 2024)

 

=> no changes expected.

 

Alpine-Renault

Esteban Ocon (contract to 2023)

Pierre Gasly (contract to 2024)

 

=> Gasly is safe, it could be the last season for Ocon. Perhaps Nyck de Vries, Guanyou Zhou or an Alpine junior like Jack Doohan are possible drivers?

 

McLaren-Mercedes

Lando Norris (contract to 2025)

Oscar Piastri (contract to 2024)

 

=> no changes expected

 

Alfa Romeo-Ferrari

Valtteri Bottas (contract to 2023)

Guanyou Zhou (contract to 2023)

 

=> With the team's future as Audi works team it could be Mick Schumacher driving for Sauber in 2024

 

Aston Martin-Mercedes

Lance Stroll (contract to 2023)

Fernando Alonso (contract to 2024)

 

=> Lance Stroll is driving as long as his dad is backing the team and Fernando is safe for 2024.

 

Haas-Ferrari

Kevin Magnussen (contract to 2023)

Nico Hülkenberg (contract to 2023)

 

=> I expect one driver to leave the team. Perhaps for Felipe Drugovich.

 

Alpha Tauri-Red Bull

Yuki Tsunoda (contract to 2023)

Nyck de Vries (contract to 2023)

 

=> Tsunoda could stay if Honda will renew the partnership with Red Bull. But I expect Tsunoda leave the team for a new junior driver like Dennis Hauger.

 

Williams-Mercedes

Alex Albon (contract to 2024)

Logan Sargeant (contract to 2023)

 

=> I expect both drivers to stay

 

So it could be this:

 

Red Bull: Max Verstappen - Sergio Pérez

Mercedes: George Russell - Lewis Hamilton

Ferrari: Charles Leclerc - Carlos Sainz

Alpine-Renault: Esteban Ocon - Pierre Gasly

McLaren-Mercedes: Lando Norris - Oscar Piastri

Alfa Romeo-Ferrari: Valtteri Bottas - Mick Schumacher

Aston Martin-Mercedes: Lance Stroll - Fernando Alonso

Haas-Ferrari: Nico Hülkenberg - Felipe Drugovich

Alpha Tauri-Red Bull: Nyck de Vries - Dennis Hauger

Williams-Mercedes: Alex Albon - Logan Sargeant



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#2 William Hunt

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 20:45

- Esteban Ocon is contracted at Alpine until end of 2024.
- Valtteri Bottas is contracted at Sauber until at least end of 2024 (probably option until 2025).

 

Only possible free seats will be at:

 

Sauber:  Zhou's contract ends. If he's replaced it will be no doubt by Théo Pourchaire. There is no way that Sauber will pick Schumacher over Pourchaire.

Haas:  Magnussen end of contract, Hülkenberg likely on a 1 + 1 deal (option for '24)

AlphaTauri:  if a driver underperforms he is at rick, a Red Bull Junior will no doubt enter then

 

All the rest is locked (Hamilton said he wants to extend) except maybe Williams if Sargeant underperforms.

 

So silly season will not be that interesting for 2024. The potential open seats at Sauber & AlphaTauri are in theory locked for drivers outside their Junior program. So that only leaves Haas and if they extend their drivers (good chance since Haas wants experience and there isn't much experience on the market except maybe Vandoorne or Giovinazzi. Haas won't take Schumacher back) there will be very little driver movement.

There could be two extra seats if Andretti is still allowed to enter. Expect an Alpine Junior there then (Doohan or Martins).

 

The most likely change we will see is at AlphaTauri imho. A lot depends on Tsunoda there, off course de Vries also has to perform well but I expect him to get the upper hand on Tsunoda (that's not certain off course). 
If both AlphaTauri drivers do well, if Haas extends their drivers and if Sauber still wants to keep Zhou one more year, if Sargeant does relatively well and if Andretti is not allowed to enter, we may even see no change at all (that would be terrible and extremely boring).


Edited by William Hunt, 21 November 2022 - 20:56.


#3 HistoryFan

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Posted 21 November 2022 - 20:50

that makes 11 drivers confirmed for 2024 and a lot of drivers are very likely to stay like the Mercedes duo...



#4 Beri

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 06:39

I'll bet you that the driver market will not be as explosive as the 2023 one was.

#5 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 09:53

I'll bet you that the driver market will not be as explosive as the 2023 one was.

 

Likely not, but maybe part of that explosiveness will carry forward, that the bigger teams are willing to park someone at a cost upwards to $20 million if they feel they are not getting the performance their car has? 

 

Tsunoda

Zhou

Hulkenberg

Magnussen

Perez

Sargeant

Albon

Piastri

 

May for  varying reasons be at risk, I do not think they are but I did not see Ricciardo being let go, Piastri at McLaren, deVries at Alpha Tauri, Sargeant at Williams, Hulkenberg at Haas for 2023 so there is that.



#6 Anja

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:00

One thing I'm kinda expecting is Red Bull finding themselves under pressure to promote one of their juniors - most likely Iwasa/Hadjar or maybe Hauger/Fittipaldi. They might have to look elsewhere for an open seat but who knows...



#7 balage06

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:02

I still hope RB won't overlook Lawson. He will race in SF next year with Team Mugen, so he will have a great chance to impress Honda on their home soil.



#8 MJB5990

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:11

I doubt many expected Piastri in a McLaren twelve months ago and as we've seen, contracts don't always mean guaranteed seats. Decisions will of course change when the cars and drivers hit the track and the stopwatch begins to tick. I still think there's plenty of stories to be written and questions to be asked in '23.

 

  • How will relations between Max and Checo develop next year?
  • Will Hamilton really sign an extension if Merc don't nail the W14?
  • Could Leclerc begin looking elsewhere if Ferrari continue to disappoint?
  • Is Piastri the real deal at McLaren? Could Lando be bought away by one of the big three?
  • Can Ocon and Gasly survive twelve months as teammates?
  • With Audi getting closer within Sauber, will Zhou make a third season? Is Bottas the driver they want leading that team?
  • How will Fernando react if Aston struggle? Or if Stroll Jr keeps putting him in the wall / on the grass?
  • Have K-Mag and Hulk really kissed and made up? Surely they're not the lineup to take Haas forward into the future?
  • What's going on at Alpha Tauri? Is De Vries just a one-race wonder? Can Yuki justify another season? Will one of the juniors do enough to make the step up?
  • Is Sargeant good enough for F1? Will Albon have eyes back on that second RB seat?


#9 Anja

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:12

I still hope RB won't overlook Lawson. He will race in SF next year with Team Mugen, so he will have a great chance to impress Honda on their home soil.

 

Personally I don't rate him but that aside they had a perfect chance to put him in F1 for next year and the fact that they didn't speaks volumes. But who knows what twists and turns the future could bring. 


Edited by Anja, 22 November 2022 - 10:14.


#10 FirstnameLastname

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:14

How long will Alonso be able to tow the line on stroll and his dad?

#11 lustigson

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:32

 

Alfa Romeo-Ferrari

 

That's going to be Sauber–Ferrari, I reckon.

 

 

 

=> Lance Stroll is driving as long as his dad is backing the team and Fernando is safe for 2024.

 

I for one wouldn't be surprised if the team let young Strulovitch go.



#12 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 10:40

How long will Alonso be able to tow the line on stroll and his dad?

 

At least 7 first GP's.



#13 Colbul1

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 11:00

If McLaren build another duffer then I would not be surprised to see Lando skipping across to Red Bull for 2024.  I mean, Red Bull have tried to sign him 3 times already.  I cannot see a realistic return for Ricciardo, but there will be seats free as I do not see Zhou or Tsunoda continuing past next season.  If anyone is moving from Alpine it will be Ocon, but he'd have nowhere to go as McLaren wouldn't take him (I could see them swoop for Albon if they didn't fancy promoting O'Ward).  Perhaps Ollie Bearman may have a stellar F2 season and could jump into F1, sadly I think the Theo Pourchaire star is waning.  Drugovich won't get a seat, he's another Mick Schumacher, but whichever of the Red Bull juniors who performs the best is likely to be Yuki's replacement.



#14 SenorSjon

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 12:48

I think Iwasa will be lined up for either AT driver, but Tsunoda enters his 3rd season now. No more rookie mistakes or outbursts.



#15 FirstnameLastname

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 12:50

Lando is about to become best mates with Alan McNish. He’ll be hunting for an apartment in Switzerland over the next few years.

#16 William Hunt

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 12:51

We really have to hope that Andretti will be allowed in for 2024 (and that they still can get ready in time) if we want to have at least a mildly interesting silly season next year. We simply don't have enough teams to have a decent silly season every year. If Andretti joins expect them to run an Alpine Jr (Doohan or Martins) paired with an experienced driver (Magnussen, Vandoorne, Giovinazzi, Schumacher) or Colton Herta if he gets his Super Licence.



#17 jonklug

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 13:10

need more teams in F1, I have 2-3 drivers that should be in F1 but there are no drives...



#18 William Hunt

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 13:11

need more teams in F1, I have 2-3 drivers that should be in F1 but there are no drives...

 

which ones are the 2-3 you want to see in F1?



#19 jonklug

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 13:25

Mick, Theo, Schwartzman and perhaps Drugovich



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#20 r4mses

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 14:09

There just needs to fall one mayor domino and BOOM we go  :stoned:



#21 FirstnameLastname

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 14:25

Verstappen retirement

#22 Beri

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 14:38

Verstappen retirement


Which would not be a surprising thing other than Verstappen not seeing out his contract. Of all the drivers, I can't see Verstappen going on for ages like Raikkonen, Alonso or Hamilton. I'd not be any bit surprised if he doesn't make it in F1 past his 30th. So in this case it would be a bit early, but still.

#23 FirstnameLastname

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 15:34

Which would not be a surprising thing other than Verstappen not seeing out his contract. Of all the drivers, I can't see Verstappen going on for ages like Raikkonen, Alonso or Hamilton. I'd not be any bit surprised if he doesn't make it in F1 past his 30th. So in this case it would be a bit early, but still.


For a while it looked like Lewis was like that and could quit any minute Rosberg-style

Now it looks like he might hang about longer after all.

Experience seems to count for more in these cost-cap days. The days of young inexperienced rookies are maybe behind us. Journey-men never had it so good!

#24 jals99

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 15:58

Hopefully Zhou will start to beat Bottas regularly, and finn will leave F1

So Theo will partner Guan



#25 H0R

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 16:22

Hopefully Zhou will start to beat Bottas regularly, and finn will leave F1

 

Hell no, we need Bottas, if only for the memes! :smoking:



#26 Ali623

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 16:48

I expect Alpha Tauri will have a completely new line-up for 2024. Tsunoda isn't very good and De Vries is largely just a stop-gap I'm assuming, with Lawson in Super Formula (and could do well there) and an influx of RB juniors in F2 next year, there's a good chance they'll have 1 or 2 options to fill those seats.



#27 DavidAntW

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 17:40

Only two moves I can see are Pourchaire and Iwasa in for Zhou and Tsunoda.

Outside chance of Danny Ric replacing Checo if RBR can’t sort the melodrama.

#28 eibyyz

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 17:44

I'd like to see Colton Herta win the champeenship and get his SL points.  I'd also like to see NEW win the I500 and decide he's tilted at all the windmills on this side of the Atlantic that he wants to. 

 

Chaos is fun.



#29 eibyyz

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 17:45

Hell no, we need Bottas, if only for the memes! :smoking:

 

There's a poster on Twitter who goes by the handle of Batteri Voltas.  



#30 William Hunt

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 19:57

Outside chance of Danny Ric replacing Checo if RBR can’t sort the melodrama.

 

Ricciardo will not even be a reserve driver at Red Bull, he'll just do PR stuff



#31 DavidAntW

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:17

Ricciardo will not even be a reserve driver at Red Bull, he'll just do PR stuff


It’s not 100% outside the realms of possibility but I agree it’s unlikely. Who knows even De Vries might turn heads at Alpha Tauri and continue his attempt to work with every constructor in the sport 😂

#32 Touchdown

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:31

- Esteban Ocon is contracted at Alpine until end of 2024.
- Valtteri Bottas is contracted at Sauber until at least end of 2024 (probably option until 2025).

 

Only possible free seats will be at:

 

SauberZhou's contract ends. If he's replaced it will be no doubt by Théo Pourchaire. There is no way that Sauber will pick Schumacher over Pourchaire.

Haas:  Magnussen end of contract, Hülkenberg likely on a 1 + 1 deal (option for '24)

AlphaTauri:  if a driver underperforms he is at rick, a Red Bull Junior will no doubt enter then

I don't necessarily agree for two reasons:

  • It will likely be Audi picking, rather than Sauber - that Schumacher name might just tempt them
  • I don't really think Pourchaire has been that impressive - very good and polished for his age but the ultimate speed doesn't seem to be mindblowing

I actually could see neither Pourchaire or Schumacher being in that seat in 2024 (or Zhou for that matter).



#33 Touchdown

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:33

 

Personally I don't rate him but that aside they had a perfect chance to put him in F1 for next year and the fact that they didn't speaks volumes. But who knows what twists and turns the future could bring. 

 

They overlooked Gasly in 2017 even after he won the GP2 title in 2016 and still did eventually bring him in, so I don't think it's the end for Lawson just yet.



#34 William Hunt

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:34

@ Touchdown: which Junior drivers (so not a driver in F1 already) do you find more impressive than Pourchaire then?



#35 aportinga

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:44

1. Gasly is out scored by Ocon and is terminated by seasons end.

2. Alonso and A/M go seperate ways after reliability and personnel issues.

3. Russell out scores Hamilton again.

4. Nyck will stuff Yuki completely

5. Bottas retires

6. LeClerc leaves Ferrari


Edited by aportinga, 22 November 2022 - 21:15.


#36 dutra

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 20:52

"Alonso is safe for 2024." Man, could someone imagine that in 2001?

 

About the line up, maybe we could see Fittipaldi in some place if he wins the F2 championship, but I agree with most of what is up here so far.



#37 Touchdown

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 21:02

@ Touchdown: which Junior drivers (so not a driver in F1 already) do you find more impressive than Pourchaire then?

I think a lot of the real talents are just coming out of F3 or just going into it right now (Bearman, Hadjar looking particularly impressive), and in F2 I thought Jack Doohan showed some very good potential this year, very fast, but still needs to iron out some of the rough edges.

 

It's not that I think Pourchaire isn't impressive, I actually think he's probably ahead of where he should be at his age in certain respects. But I don't think he's got the head turning speed someone like Verstappen did pre-F1, and I think he's very tentative when it comes to overtaking.



#38 William Hunt

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 21:09

Just a crazy thought. Norris is end of contract in 2025 and Audi enters in 2026. It will be tempting for them to make a huge bid for Lando Norris. And considering Audi's track record in autosport (in particular Le Mans) it may not be a bad long term bet to sign there.

 

@ Touchdown: Bearman & Hadjar were indeed impressive this year in F3 and they're both still so young, remarkable at their age.


Edited by William Hunt, 22 November 2022 - 21:11.


#39 eibyyz

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 21:40

Just a crazy thought. Norris is end of contract in 2025 and Audi enters in 2026. It will be tempting for them to make a huge bid for Lando Norris. And considering Audi's track record in autosport (in particular Le Mans) it may not be a bad long term bet to sign there.

 

@ Touchdown: Bearman & Hadjar were indeed impressive this year in F3 and they're both still so young, remarkable at their age.

 

I think Zak might run into some difficulty spreading himself too thin and there could be an enterprise-wide reboot.  Zak might be amenable to offering Lando to the highest bidder.  Which will be Red Bull.


Edited by eibyyz, 22 November 2022 - 21:41.


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#40 Lennat

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 22:00

Just a crazy thought. Norris is end of contract in 2025 and Audi enters in 2026. It will be tempting for them to make a huge bid for Lando Norris. And considering Audi's track record in autosport (in particular Le Mans) it may not be a bad long term bet to sign there.


Things can change in three years of course, but right now that idea appears quite logical if anything. I guess it very much depends on how the Norris/Piastri battle turns out (looking at Piastri's junior CV I certainly think he has a real CHANCE of matching/beating Norris, at least after a year or two, but I'm not making any predictions), and also if there is an opening at another top team/aspiring top them by/before then.

I'm actually quite shocked McLaren didn't go for the Audi deal that appears to have been available to them earlier this year, as I think McLaren and Audi together would have been a very potent combination.

#41 JimmyClark

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 22:10

Which would not be a surprising thing other than Verstappen not seeing out his contract. Of all the drivers, I can't see Verstappen going on for ages like Raikkonen, Alonso or Hamilton. I'd not be any bit surprised if he doesn't make it in F1 past his 30th. So in this case it would be a bit early, but still.

I think Jos wants Max to beat all records, especially Hamilton's. Titles, wins and possibly poles.

If Max is within a reasonable distance of that when the contract renewal comes up, I personally think he will resign.

Edited by JimmyClark, 22 November 2022 - 22:10.


#42 FirstnameLastname

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 22:18

Lando or LeClerc will surely be Audis top picks?

Or Russell perhaps if Merc can’t deliver a championship car

#43 FLB

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 22:26

Lando or LeClerc will surely be Audis top picks?

Or Russell perhaps if Merc can’t deliver a championship car

 

Adam Baker names his ‘dream team’ line-up for Audi’s first season in F1 (yahoo.com)

 

 

 

As Audi plot their 2026 arrival, the CEO of the company’s F1 project Adam Baker has named his “dream team” line up of Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso.


#44 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 22:53

 

He must have been talking to Spanish media.



#45 Anja

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Posted 22 November 2022 - 23:03

At this rate Alonso will race in F1 at the age of 50  :D



#46 Alfisti

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 00:01

Gee some of you are not thinking this through.

Verstappen isn't going anywhere, neither is Russell and neither is leclerc (where would he go??). Lando to audi has legs though as I don't rate mclaren at all.

Zhou has a huge home market and huge budget, will be hard to shift.

Edited by Alfisti, 23 November 2022 - 00:02.


#47 RedKloud

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 00:26

Lewis to jump ship to Ferrari where he will retire after another couple of years.



#48 eab

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 01:03

Ricciardo will not even be a reserve driver at Red Bull, he'll just do PR stuff

So what you're basically saying, is that RB are trying to divert and make hím their resident PRic?



#49 efuloni

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 01:21

Guys, lets get real: Ricciardo will never have a full time seat again

Considering him for the most wanted seat in F1 right now is just nonsense. Even if Perez underperforms massively in 24 (which I dont expect), RedBull would be crazy to even consider bringing Danny back.

It saddens me to say this. I really like him. But hoping he will be back to Rbr is nothing but wishful thinking.

#50 GunnarN7

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Posted 23 November 2022 - 01:38

I expect Alpha Tauri will have a completely new line-up for 2024. Tsunoda isn't very good and De Vries is largely just a stop-gap I'm assuming, with Lawson in Super Formula (and could do well there) and an influx of RB juniors in F2 next year, there's a good chance they'll have 1 or 2 options to fill those seats.

 

If De Vries manages to fulfil the role Gasly has had these last few years, they'll probably keep him for a couple more years. Otherwise, yes, just a stop-gap.

 

Tsunoda will have to do something very special to keep his seat, and it doesn't seem likely.