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Electric cars rule the roads... but are they really a success?


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#1 Nemo1965

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Posted 03 June 2023 - 18:02

Rowan Atkinson in The Guardian today:

I love electric vehicles – and was an early adopter. But increasingly I feel duped

 

Hence.



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#2 gruntguru

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Posted 04 June 2023 - 07:04

Well - even Atkinson says that EV's are probably the best alternative in the longer term. He is really only pointing out shortcomings that exist mostly in the short term.

 

Early adopters are helping reduce CO2 emissions in a subtle way not mentioned. The auto industry needs time to fine-tune EV architecture and manufacture - it can't happen overnight.



#3 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 04 June 2023 - 07:23

EVs are at best city cars for people with charging infrastucture on site, that is not cheap. And to go on holiday you need another petrol vehicle that has a range,, more so if towing.

With all the b/s and rhetoric they are NOT practical, and never will be. Remember this happened a 100 years ago and failed.

Living in a large country like Oz many places do NOT have electricity full stop. Generators only and no spare electricity and the power goes off at 10 pm until 6am.

But I see test after test in the UK and they cannot even get out of England from London. That is rather impractical to say the least



#4 mariner

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Posted 04 June 2023 - 12:34

With due respect to Rowan and his engineering background I think there are some serious logic flaws in his article.

 

For example 

 

"

"You can now make a car for £15,000 that, with tender loving care, will last for 30 years"

 

This is simply not true because all modern IC cars are loaded with complex emissions and economy add-ons which are legally mandated and must work at every annual test. The cost of replacing cats, EGR valves, Adblue systems etc is so high the poorer people who own older cars are forced to scrap them as uneconomic long before rust sets in 

 

. It’s sobering to think that if the first owners of new cars just kept them for five years, on average, instead of the current three, then car production and the CO2 emissions associated with it, would be vastly reduced. Yet we’d be enjoying the same mobility, just driving slightly older cars.

 

The time a first owner keeps a ca has nothing to do with its effective economic life and the sales volume reduction lasts only two years at 5 vs 3 first buyer years. Also faster sales rates n EV's bring down CO2 output quicker .

 

The problem lies with the lithium-ion batteries fitted currently to nearly all electric vehicles: they’re absurdly heavy, many rare earth metals and huge amounts of energy are required to make them, and they only last about 10 years.

 

The weight and rare earth consumption of making new lithium batteries is large but 10 years is  not a drop dead life for batteries which degrade at about 2% per year, it just makes the range poorer. Which raises a much more subtle question alluded to by the boss of Dacia who are launching a cheaper EV with a very deliberate range trade off via a smaller so cheaper battery. 

 

IF , or maybe wnen,, public charging points are as common as fililng stations  then the need to meet the holy grail of 300 mile range becomes meaningless. If 150 miles per Dacia were to replace 300 miles per Tesla the battery costs , financial  and environmental, of Li batteries would be roughly halved. 

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by mariner, 04 June 2023 - 12:37.


#5 MatsNorway

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Posted 04 June 2023 - 23:27

Biggest issue with Electric cars is the lack of recycling the batteries. Once that is efficient things will look truly good for the electric car.

 

One thing i just learned was that Renault lets you buy the car and lease the battery. I think that makes it very attractive on paper for making the car run longer with no big battery cost to worry about in the future.

 



#6 404KF2

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 04:36

Generally, original owners who keep their cars long term treat them better than subsequent owners, not deferring maintenance as much and sucking up the occasional repair where these would be mentally or economically terminal for someone who bought the car for half price or less and is on a tight budget. It's a thing.



#7 Nemo1965

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 08:07

With due respect to Rowan and his engineering background I think there are some serious logic flaws in his article.

 

For example 

 

"

"You can now make a car for £15,000 that, with tender loving care, will last for 30 years"

 

This is simply not true because all modern IC cars are loaded with complex emissions and economy add-ons which are legally mandated and must work at every annual test. The cost of replacing cats, EGR valves, Adblue systems etc is so high the poorer people who own older cars are forced to scrap them as uneconomic long before rust sets in 

 

. It’s sobering to think that if the first owners of new cars just kept them for five years, on average, instead of the current three, then car production and the CO2 emissions associated with it, would be vastly reduced. Yet we’d be enjoying the same mobility, just driving slightly older cars.

 

The time a first owner keeps a ca has nothing to do with its effective economic life and the sales volume reduction lasts only two years at 5 vs 3 first buyer years. Also faster sales rates n EV's bring down CO2 output quicker .

 

The problem lies with the lithium-ion batteries fitted currently to nearly all electric vehicles: they’re absurdly heavy, many rare earth metals and huge amounts of energy are required to make them, and they only last about 10 years.

 

The weight and rare earth consumption of making new lithium batteries is large but 10 years is  not a drop dead life for batteries which degrade at about 2% per year, it just makes the range poorer. Which raises a much more subtle question alluded to by the boss of Dacia who are launching a cheaper EV with a very deliberate range trade off via a smaller so cheaper battery. 

 

IF , or maybe wnen,, public charging points are as common as fililng stations  then the need to meet the holy grail of 300 mile range becomes meaningless. If 150 miles per Dacia were to replace 300 miles per Tesla the battery costs , financial  and environmental, of Li batteries would be roughly halved. 

 

 

Good points. But regarding that all 'modern cars are loaded with complex emissions'. I am not sure that Atkinson meant that if you buy a car NOW, it will last for the next thirty years. Just that if you bought a petrol-car ten years ago, you might as well use it for another twenty years because that will be better for the environment and your wallet. 1,5 years ago I bought a twenty year old Volvo V70 for 2000 euro's. I am tempted to sell it and lease an electric car... but I am not convinced I am doing someting more enviromentally sound. Certainly it won't be cheaper. I've spent the total amount of 400 euro's for a broken headlight and a new MOT. With taxes, fuel an insurance added, it is all an yearly amount for which I can only lease the smallest kind of electric car (in which I won't fit). And I would be stuck with it for five years.

 

So these kind of articles are very useful for my deliberations.


Edited by Nemo1965, 05 June 2023 - 08:19.


#8 Charlieman

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 12:24

Atkinson's hydrogen fuel propositions are not efficient. Transforming electricity into stored hydrogen via electrolysis has an efficiency of A% -- electrolysis process, storage, shipping. If the fuel is burnt in a hybrid car with a conventional internal combustion engine or a gas turbine, that's an efficiency of B% (somewhere around 40% if done well), Two thirds of the electrical energy used to make hydrogen is thrown away. The other proposal (hydrogen for fuel cells) has a useful application, such as almost zero pollution vehicles in Antartica, where efficiency is less significant.

 

Another Atkinson proposition was artificial hydrocarbon fuel. The options are a different electrolysis process (dreadful efficiencies) or fuel derived from agricultural crops. Given the impact of war in Ukraine, we value potential food a bit more.

 

Regarding the extraction of metals required for EVs, this is mostly a political problem. It can be avoided to a degree by extracting metals from seawater (electrolysis again!) or deep sea dredging (disastrous for sea creatures). In the long term, responsible metal extraction from the sea will happen because it is preferable to giving money to the gangsters who control so much mining.

 

Lifespan of a car? Our perceptions are distorted by the ones which have survived; we need to think about the ones which were scrapped after 12 years or so. Manufacturers could build cars with 30 year life spans -- chunky platform chassis (almost essential for an EV), bolt on plastic body panels, standardised electrics and control systems, swappable interior fittings -- but it doesn't fit their business model. Why does every car need its own non-distinctive headlight and rear light cluster design?


Edited by Charlieman, 05 June 2023 - 12:27.


#9 404KF2

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 16:49

I've been doing some analysis by VIN on the 1000 Peugeot 505s that were sold in BC, Canada, a country that's not too easy on cars. It seems that, apart from collision writeoffs, the average lifespan of a 505 here was around 20-25 years before being definitively parked, usually with 250-400K km. I would have done it for older models like the (more rust-prone) 504 which sold 2000 units in this Province, but not being in possession of a 17 digit VIN, it's not possible to get registration data for those.

 

This has piqued my interest so maybe I will do some actual stats on this dataset to see what it shows.



#10 mariner

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 18:05

There isa wonderful UK site here which lets you look a  numbers sold and still on road or laid up (SORN)  by model.

 

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/

 

As it warns you there are some difficulties  due to versions of names entered by the DVLA or dealers but its great fun 

 

It is also useful if you want to predict "future classics" or even work out what proportion of a cars remaining fleet  are up for sale 

 

For example there are only 305 Astom MArtin DB5's in road use in teh UK but just one Clasic sales site has 18  for sale !



#11 Nemo1965

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 18:05

I've been doing some analysis by VIN on the 1000 Peugeot 505s that were sold in BC, Canada, a country that's not too easy on cars. It seems that, apart from collision writeoffs, the average lifespan of a 505 here was around 20-25 years before being definitively parked, usually with 250-400K km. I would have done it for older models like the (more rust-prone) 504 which sold 2000 units in this Province, but not being in possession of a 17 digit VIN, it's not possible to get registration data for those.

 

This has piqued my interest so maybe I will do some actual stats on this dataset to see what it shows.

 

That would very interesting. I am always fascinated by ADAC, the very stern German organisation that, amongst others, does MOT's. Here, for example, are the reliability-figures for cars in 2022 that are 10 to 11 years old:

https://car-recalls....22-10-11-years/


Edited by Nemo1965, 05 June 2023 - 18:06.


#12 kikiturbo2

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 21:09

one thing that is a future problem for EV is crash repair cost and the rise in insurance cost that will follow. I work for a major VW group distributor and the cost for even small fender benders on EVs is staggering. We recently had some sort of fuse replacement in a battery pack, as a result of a minor crash, that resulted in a 14K EUR repair, with 80% of that in labor.. 



#13 MikeTekRacing

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Posted 05 June 2023 - 22:54

maybe I am dumb (I mean I know I am, but hopefully not here) I feel he misses the point a bit?

 

The talk of banning NEW ICE car sales does not anywhere say people should ditch their old cars - rather not buy a new one. We do have a huge pool of cars (he acknowledges that) - banning new car sales and focusing only on new electric seems very good.



#14 jcbc3

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Posted 06 June 2023 - 06:32

You're not that stupid. What I would have against the legislation is that it has a preference for one technology, meaning car manufacturers have to go down that route. If the legislation instead gave goals that you would have to reach, the manufacturers could exploit different technologies. As stated a million times around here, I will keep my present petrol car until it conks out (or one of the kids total it) and then go full EV. So I am not biased against EV at all. I just like 'fair' legislation.



#15 mariner

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Posted 06 June 2023 - 08:10

Keeping an old car makes a lot of sense but the trend, in the UK at least, towards o low emission zones in cities makes it somewhat impractical.

 

The London ULEZ ( Ultra low emission zone) is being expanded this summer to cover all of London . That's about 10M people and includes many areas of suburbs where a car is pretty essential. Even if you just drive from the zone to the beach etc you still pay.

 

Several other UK cities are following and I think it's common in Europe too. Only cars on Euro 4 petrol, and euro 6 diesel  or newer don't pay.in London.

 

So its sort of the reverse of the EV range problem older IC cars are no good in cities but EV's are no good to go to beach!

 

Classic cars over 40 years old are exempt and walking through a nice part of London the other day I saw a smart solution to the ULEZ charges. A guy had an old MGB GT parked n the road in his resident's spot, not very good cosmetically but ULEZ charge exempt. No road tax and no annual MOT test plus very cheap parts and insurance. A great idea I think.

 

BTW the latest UK registrations are out for 2023 through May. Diesel is down to just 4% of new car sales with EV 4 times bigger. Unfortunately van sales which cocer 17% of UK miles driven are still 93% deisel??

 

 

 



#16 Nathan

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Posted 06 June 2023 - 21:52

Once cars drive themselves EV cars will rule the day and the number of vehicles we have to produce and recycle in the developed world will reduce greatly.



#17 Greg Locock

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Posted 07 June 2023 - 00:42

"MGB GT" yes, the law of unintended consequences. You want me to buy an EV because of the children or something, instead I buy a non-catalyst petrol engine.



#18 Magoo

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Posted 07 June 2023 - 20:53

My takeaway from the Atkinson piece: He didn't really understand the issues before he bought an EV, and he doesn't understand them now. 

 

He writes, "electric motoring doesn't seem to be quite the environmental panacea it is claimed to be." Good for him. Panaceas are imaginary solutions. 

 

So we are wrestling with a strawman. The real question is not if EV is the perfect solution to every problem, but if it is materially superior to the ICE enough to make the switch worthwhile. 


Edited by Magoo, 07 June 2023 - 20:53.


#19 Magoo

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Posted 07 June 2023 - 21:11

The global auto industry produces roughly 85 million vehicles per year and employs around 15 million people. 

 

People aren't going to stop making or buying new cars. That's not a solution. 



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#20 Magoo

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Posted 08 June 2023 - 17:30

And a rebuttal to Atkinson, also published in the Guardian. I admire the good old Manchester Guardian. We don't really have its equivalent in the USA. 

 

https://www.theguard...ctric-vehicles?



#21 Greg Locock

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Posted 09 June 2023 - 01:13

GM's commonising on the Tesla plug as well. That's a sensible move. Does anybody know if the plug hardware is better than the competing standards, or is it the charger network they really want?



#22 mariner

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Posted 09 June 2023 - 10:18

Mago, I am so impressed you remember it was once the Manchester Guardian , known in the Uk as the " teachers newspaper"!

 

On the discussion here I think we are at the same sort of pivotal moment as jet engines arriving for commercial airliners or diesel engines in USA versus steam 

 

After WW2 jets were the only game for fighters but lousy fuel consumption meant poor range. As military types couldn’t face piston bombers never getting through they spent big on better jets, mainly done through better alloys to raise the heat cycle for longer and compressor design etc.

 

By 1954 or so it was obvious that an jet engine with one shaft and just two fans was inherently more reliable than a piston engine with 28 cylinders and con rods plus 56 valves and plugs. 

So ended the era of piston airliners.

 

In the 1940's to 1960's GM basically wiped out not just steam engines on US railroads but a whole steam building industry, Lima, Baldwin, Alco etc plus many in house steam factories like the Norfolk Western vanished.

 

I think we are that inflexation point  now with EV's - why have an engine with multi valves, VVT, EGR, Adblue, injector systems etc when a simple one moving part electric motor can be used ?

 

 

 

Aat least here in the UK th new EV players have sent the car market into turmoil as did GM with trains.

 

Tesla is the "premium" ie. company  car benchmark due to acceleration and low tax. The Chinese MG is the best selling cheaper EV , way below a VW equivalent. Stellantis  now own Opel,/ Vauxhall but want £39K for a EV Astra based on a IC platform with 0 to 60 in 9 seconds. Iit is only £3,000 cheaper than a much bigger Hyundai Inox 5 with SUV space and 0 to 60 in 5 seconds 

 

 

Times they are a changing. 

 


Edited by mariner, 09 June 2023 - 10:23.


#23 Nemo1965

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Posted 09 June 2023 - 18:25

Mago, I am so impressed you remember it was once the Manchester Guardian , known in the Uk as the " teachers newspaper"!

 

On the discussion here I think we are at the same sort of pivotal moment as jet engines arriving for commercial airliners or diesel engines in USA versus steam 

 

After WW2 jets were the only game for fighters but lousy fuel consumption meant poor range. As military types couldn’t face piston bombers never getting through they spent big on better jets, mainly done through better alloys to raise the heat cycle for longer and compressor design etc.

 

By 1954 or so it was obvious that an jet engine with one shaft and just two fans was inherently more reliable than a piston engine with 28 cylinders and con rods plus 56 valves and plugs. 

So ended the era of piston airliners.

 

In the 1940's to 1960's GM basically wiped out not just steam engines on US railroads but a whole steam building industry, Lima, Baldwin, Alco etc plus many in house steam factories like the Norfolk Western vanished.

 

I think we are that inflexation point  now with EV's - why have an engine with multi valves, VVT, EGR, Adblue, injector systems etc when a simple one moving part electric motor can be used ?

 

 

 

Aat least here in the UK th new EV players have sent the car market into turmoil as did GM with trains.

 

Tesla is the "premium" ie. company  car benchmark due to acceleration and low tax. The Chinese MG is the best selling cheaper EV , way below a VW equivalent. Stellantis  now own Opel,/ Vauxhall but want £39K for a EV Astra based on a IC platform with 0 to 60 in 9 seconds. Iit is only £3,000 cheaper than a much bigger Hyundai Inox 5 with SUV space and 0 to 60 in 5 seconds 

 

 

Times they are a changing. 

 

This is a wonderful post. Thank you. But the big difference between steam-engines and engines for planes, is that those were never produced for the open market i.e. for individual consumers. From what I gathered, there are now 1,8 billion cars registered worldwide, of which about 18 million (what I could find) are electric. A SENSIBLE switch-over point could or should perhaps be delayed. My question remains if these current cars should not be used for as long they pass the respective MOT of their country, instead of scrapping them for electrical cars. I am not entirely convinced by the numbers of the reaction in The Guardian to's Atkinson's piece, because as far as I can see, most positive numbers about eletrical cars are based on the idea that electrical cars will be the prime car for the future. Carbon-free fuel (like Vettel used in his demo-run) could be expensive to produce, but I am still curious if these disadvantages could not be off-set by the gain of scrapping perfectly working cars and the perfectly working parts thereof...

 

EDIT: To complicate matters further: 

 

Looking at the phase-out of steam locomotion, the researchers found evidence of “an immediate, directional response to the first appearance of a direct competitor, with subsequent competitors further reducing the realized niche of steam locomotives, until extinction was the inevitable outcome.”

But the study suggests extinction can be tied directly to competition between species only under specific circumstances “when niche overlap between an incumbent and its competitors is near absolute and where the incumbent is incapable of transitioning to a new adaptive zone.”

http://https://today...gical-evolution


Edited by Nemo1965, 09 June 2023 - 19:35.


#24 Magoo

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Posted 09 June 2023 - 21:25

GM's commonising on the Tesla plug as well. That's a sensible move. Does anybody know if the plug hardware is better than the competing standards, or is it the charger network they really want?

 

Ford and GM want the Tesla Supercharger network, which is not just the most extensive network in the USA but the only one that is reliable.

 

The Tesla/NACS connector is a bonus, as you can see in this video. 

 


Edited by Magoo, 09 June 2023 - 21:37.


#25 MikeTekRacing

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Posted 09 June 2023 - 21:47

GM's commonising on the Tesla plug as well. That's a sensible move. Does anybody know if the plug hardware is better than the competing standards, or is it the charger network they really want?

The plug is cheaper, smaller, lighter easier to use and more reliable (It doesn't have the lock mechanism in it)



#26 just me again

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Posted 10 June 2023 - 12:24

Ccs also do not have the lock mechanism in the cable.
All EV in Europe uses CCS, even Tesla!

If USA goes with NACS. There will be one standard in Europe (CCS) and 2 in USA!!

#27 Magoo

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Posted 10 June 2023 - 14:30

Ccs also do not have the lock mechanism in the cable.
All EV in Europe uses CCS, even Tesla!

If USA goes with NACS. There will be one standard in Europe (CCS) and 2 in USA!!

 

There aren't going to be two connectors in the USA for very long, I don't think. Tesla, Ford, and GM represent around 77 percent of the EV market.

 

Meanwhile, the networks that use CCS are plagued with reliability and connectivity problems, which are not really due to the CCS connector. 

 

They are poorly managed and have struggled to get past their startup troubles, which no doubt led to the frustration at Ford and GM, causing them both to swallow hard and embrace Tesla. 



#28 just me again

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Posted 10 June 2023 - 15:15

USA will get it's own standard then! Probably Canada and Mexico also. Otherwise it could be inconvenient!!

#29 Hyatt

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Posted 10 June 2023 - 17:18

i hardly hear/read of ccs troubles over here in germany. After some teething problems 2 years ago they appear to be fine ...



#30 MikeTekRacing

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Posted 10 June 2023 - 23:05

i hardly hear/read of ccs troubles over here in germany. After some teething problems 2 years ago they appear to be fine ...

You need to try to use both, handle both cables, feel the weight etc to understand one is just A LOT better

#31 Magoo

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Posted 11 June 2023 - 01:15

CCS and NACS (Tesla) connectors compared. As usual, Sandy Munro beats around the bush. 

 

 



#32 mariner

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Posted 11 June 2023 - 20:09

Here is a "new" EV problem I never thought about! 

 

https://www.independ...k-b2352900.html

e

In teh UK with it's limited city space multi story car parks are everywhere. Certainly they are not suitable space wise for modrn SUV's but I can se this problem  could be seruuos.

 

Most UK multi stoieis used pre cast  concrete beams spanning two parking spaces and a two way traffic zone. That 45 to 50ft. of beam. Parking two big EV's on that plus two passing is up to 8 tons of weight over a few beams. 

 

 

I imagine the original  designs had a good safety margin but 40 to 50 years of possible neglect could cause problems  ??



#33 Magoo

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Posted 11 June 2023 - 23:09

While certainly worthy of study, I think the parking structure issue might be overstated. 

 

Yes, if everyone rushes out and buys a 9,063 lb Hummer EV, that could present a problem. However, sales are currently a trickle. 

 

Meanwhile, the best-selling car in the world, the Tesla Model Y, has a curb weight of 4,450 lbs, so we should probably be ok. 



#34 Magoo

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Posted 11 June 2023 - 23:14

Given Ford and GM's recent adoption of the Tesla charging system and connector, there should be some interesting meetings at VW of America this week. 



#35 Charlieman

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Posted 12 June 2023 - 08:58

A few thought re: multi-storey car parks.

 

The lower storeys currently support the distributed load of the upper storeys in addition to vehicles. I'd guess that a safety factor of three was applied at the design stage so the analysis is interesting.

 

I watched a university library reconstruction at close hand a few years ago. The rework allowed for stacks (high density book stores) to be used on the upper levels. Floor support beams were reinforced by inserting a new structure below and alongside the existing one. A number of pillars were reinforced and various walls were reconstructed. It was expensive enough for a library and different economics would apply for a car park.



#36 jcbc3

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Posted 12 June 2023 - 09:15

I work at a place of many stores. We own the property and rent out. So our commercial department are always hunting for customers. They reel them in, make the contract and hand over to our facility department for the fineer details of fitting the stores with what the renters need.

They also agree a price and a placement and that's it for them.

 

So, they got a new Thai restaurant chain to sign up. Part of the contract said something like 'interior design as per Thai restaurant concept'. What the commercial department with us had failed to recognize was that this chain has a feature in all their restaurants that is a 10.000 litre aquarium. And when facility looked at the palcement agreed, they realized that the floor couldn't carry this weight concentrated. So we ended up having to reinforce the basemen ceiling at substantial cost to us. Haven't made any money on that lease. Never will recuperate in a hundred years.



#37 Magoo

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Posted 12 June 2023 - 15:29

According to the Rueters story linked below, China says that more than 50 percent of its electrical power now comes from renewables. 

 

Since the source of the info is the Chinese Communist Party, I wouldn't bet the farm and the mule on its accuracy.

 

But if it is somewhere close to true, perhaps we can now put to rest the argument, "Let's not do anything about climate change because China." 

 

https://www.reuters....lbwBzUvJBvJawU0



#38 Greg Locock

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Posted 12 June 2023 - 21:33

Outside sources don't agree

 

https://ourworldinda...icity?tab=table

 

China is at 531, world average is 436.

 

We get similar distortions from so called green states in Australia, which are reliant on interconnectors to states that still have signficant fossil fuel generators.



#39 Greg Locock

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Posted 12 June 2023 - 23:50

Here's a good, if somewhat old , chart. It's a proper histogram, the height of the bar tells you the per capita CO2 emissions, the area of each block shows the total.

 

2019-Worldwide-CO2-Emissions-by-region-p



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#40 Greg Locock

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Posted 13 June 2023 - 00:19

and forecast

 

main.png



#41 gruntguru

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Posted 13 June 2023 - 01:43

Does that "history/projection" line mean the chart was created before 2015? So much for net-zero by 20XX.

 

Even if the projections are credible, the chart shows total emissions, so China's projection looks very reasonable for a country that is doing a chunk of the world's manufacture and raising their domestic standard of living at the same time.



#42 Magoo

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Posted 13 June 2023 - 01:47

The large chart illustrates how American we Americans can be. Our per capita CO2 emissions are twice that of China, but it's all China's fault. 



#43 Magoo

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Posted 13 June 2023 - 01:55

More on the Tesla charging deal with GM board member and former Tesla exec Jon McNeil.

 

 

 



#44 Nathan

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Posted 24 June 2023 - 02:21

C02/person rates seems flawed to me when it comes to the hydrocarbon, or even resource exporting countries.  Real rates seem more meaningful.

 

A quarter of China still lives on a few Dollars per day, so their head counts subsidize the real users, hence why India looks even better.


Edited by Nathan, 24 June 2023 - 02:23.


#45 gruntguru

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Posted 24 June 2023 - 03:06

Agree, and clamping down on local consumption has many flaws - a big chunk of China's emissions go to producing goods for export to affluent countries. So affluent countries aren't just sending manufacturing and manufacturing jobs offshore, they are also exporting their CO2 emissions tally.

 

Another problem with regulating consumption of fossil fuels is that the resulting oversupply forces the price down. If you were serious about eliminating fossil fuels you would regulate production - forcing prices up and creating a strong incentive to switch to alternatives.


Edited by gruntguru, 24 June 2023 - 03:15.


#46 Nemo1965

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Posted 24 June 2023 - 21:43


Some optimist assumptions included…EDIT: Placed picture in post. 

 

lifecycle-emissions-evs-vs-gas.jpg


Edited by Nemo1965, 25 June 2023 - 07:33.


#47 Greg Locock

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Posted 24 June 2023 - 23:32

I struggle a bit with 240000 km as a life for a modern car. I've certainly exceeded that (the mighty Corona), but equally, had many cars scrapped at 160000. 



#48 desmo

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Posted 25 June 2023 - 01:20

I've never had a car die earlier than 240,000 km. 160k would be horrible.



#49 404KF2

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Posted 25 June 2023 - 06:11

One of the principal assumptions (I presume) in that comparative chart of lifetime CO2 that Nemo linked to is that the mass of the vehicle's structure is relatively similar. Another is some sort of fuel consumption average for comparative purposes. Not all ICE or electric cars are equal in this respect, a rather extreme example in the ICE field being the diesel smarts I've been driving since the start of 2005. The convertible version of this car weighs 740 kg and our first one averaged 3.95 L/100 km lifetime measured at the pump and the modified one I'm driving now has a 4.15 L/100 km lifetime average. The first one died in a rear end collision at only 250,000 km....it protected our daughters well when they were schmucked by a Pontiac at 60 km/h. I think it'd have gone at least 350K km but maybe more. The current one is nearing 175K km and despite being more stressed than the earlier one due to the tune, I'd also expect it to top 300K km without anything other than routine maintenance. I just changed the brake pads for the first time yesterday, and they may have had another 50K km in them if I was going to push to the limit.

 

Even our big car has a lifetime average of under 7.4 L/100 km over more than 335,000 km. I expect it to get to 500K km with ease. It's also relatively light compared to more modern cars. The Peugeot 405 it replaced did 366,000 km before the head gasket let go and I decided to scrap it as a lot of deferred maintenance had piled up, still feeling guilty about that one because it had lots of life left in the bodyshell.

 

On the EV side, a Ford F150 Lightning, a Tesla 3 or a Chevy Bolt will all have VERY different raw material quantities, very different energy efficiency in daily use and possibly different absolute lifespans. If there was a model-specific audit done for all models under regulation, I think car buyers would benefit greatly from it. 



#50 Nemo1965

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Posted 25 June 2023 - 07:49

In the picture I posted, I think, the assumption is that the car has one owner through its lifecycle of 250.000 km. If that is the base of comparing the carbon footprint of total use (from building to using), that is much to pessimistic about combustion-engine cars and too optimistic about electric cars.

It is interesting that the Netherlands have almost the oldest cars in Europe (except for Greece, I believe). There are about 9 million cars, of which 4,5 million older than 10 years (!) and last year only 300.000 new cars were sold, of which about 26 percent electric.  

 

In 2022, 403.000 cars were scrapped, that is to say: they were taken off the Dutch roads. 65 percent of these cars were exported (!) and 35 percent were permanently scrapped. I keep wondering if dynamics like these are taken into account when graphics are made like the one I posted above...