67 replies to this topic

[sladealonso]

Hi all. So the final chapter of the latest season in Formula One's annals has officially closed. While 2023 wasn't a vintage year, with the indomitable synergy between Max Verstappen and the RB19 rewriting the record books and redefining the word dominance, I think it's fair to say we will all be recharged and ready to go again come testing in February.

 

With that in mind, this is always the time of year I enjoy speculating, albeit lightheartedly, about what is to come in 2024.

 

Will Verstappen match Vettel's four titles on the spin and move even closer to Schumacher - Hamilton record territory?

 

Will McLaren take another leap and challenge? How will Norris v Piastri part two playout?

 

Can the Prancing Horse fire back after a promising end to the campaign?

 

Will it be the year Lewis gets his eighth?

 

Can Fernando and Aston Martin continue to fight towards the front... will it be the year of the 33rd, or even more?
 

There are so many questions, and as of now, no concrete answers, so I'd love to get a good thread going discussing how everyone thinks Formula One make shake out in 2024. Any bold predictions you'd like to look back on this time next year? Or maybe you play it safe and just go with another year of Super Max, whatever you think. Let's get some heathy, if unsubstantiated discussion going.

 

Feel free to drop in some far far too early championship standings predictions, or alternatively just throw some statements out into the world. In 12 months time, it'll be interesting to see what has stuck.

Edited by sladealonso, 27 November 2023 - 15:48.

[Alfisti]

It'll look very similar to this year. 

[Sterzo]

1. If, and it's a big if, "only a rookie" Piastri continues his trajectory, then we'll have another natural and regular winner.

 

2. Hamilton, I think, just might decline. It would be great to see him regain his cutting edge, but that would be going against the run of history.

 

3. I'm more confident about the third prediction. Liberty will heed cries that they're ignoring European tradition, by insisting F1 drivers take part in the Cooper's Hill Cheese Rolling contest or forfeit their salaries.

Edited by Sterzo, 27 November 2023 - 15:36.

[Beamer]

Perez finally accepts being no2 and that hugely imporves his performances, he has his best year ever at RBR, which a lot of people will the see as proof that Max really isn't that great because.. well, it's only Perez right?

The car is custom bult for Max any way, so no wonder...

 

Norris finally getting his win or two and everyone will be pushing for him to join RBR again.  That would be a real test for Max and expose him as not being all that great after all

Max should first have to prove his worth in a non-newey car anyway.... 

Merc and Ferrari still didn't get it and fight for 3rd with teammates fairly evenly matched again,

So obviously Leclerc is the biggest talent out there but hampered by the team and Sainz. whereas Hamilton is over his peak so Russel can actually keep up with him, proving Russel is actually the next biggest talent. 

Aston not really moving up in the world, making life in the team quite 'interesting' as Alonso start trying new motivational speeches during heated race moments. 

 

Yuki actually looks very good and Ric's smile is tarting to look a bit artificial... Yuki to RBR rumors start arising

[CSF]

Max Verstappen you are the world champion

 

Ferrari and McLaren to make inroads into RBR, Mercedes to continue to flounder.

 

Hamilton to retire after realizing he can't win again. Record dividends will be paid out though so its all good. 

 

Aston to perform as is as they settle down. Alonso also will never win again and may retire (again) also. Aston should look at Sainz in my opinion as its becoming hard to see where they get another good/top driver from for the Honda deal in 2026... Alonso will not be around then, so should they keep him? 

 

Williams to make another step, Alpine to tread along.... going nowhere fast. 

 

Haas at the back where they belong with team Sauber treading water.

 

Ricciardo to be jettisoned by Alpha Boss Tauri Bulls. 

 

Perez will exist. 

[Primo]

It'll look very similar to this year. 

I'm afraid you're right. I think Mercedes stuck to its original concept too long and since they still do not understand the current car, I doubt that they have solved the core issues for next years car. Ferrari... well, maybe Vasseur can make them less Ferrari and surprise me, but my hope for a Red Bull challenger rests on McLaren. 

When it comes to drivers, I think we will see an even stronger Max and a clear shift of #1's at Mercedes. Hamilton is at an age when he must work twice as hard as his 23 year old self just to maintain his competitiveness and unless Mercedes somehow manages to pull a race winning car out their sleeve, I do not think he will be motivated to do that. Same with Alonso.

Piastri will be interesting and I expect that intra-team battle to be very close.

According to my AI friend, the contracts of more than half the field will expire next year:

 

Sergio Perez

Fernando Alonso

Carlos Sainz

Charles Leclerc

Esteban Ocon

Pierre Gasly

Alex Albon

Nico Hulkenberg

Kevin Magnussen

Guanyu Zhou

Valtteri Bottas

Yuki Tsunoda

Daniel Ricciardo
 

(I did not check for accuracy)  

Of those, we'll probably see Sainz extend with Ferrari, but Leclerc... well, there will be a seat available at Red Bull. Albon and Ocon will also find new seats while Alonso bows out after a rather disappointing season. Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas will definitely be gone and the others are lucky there's no rookies next season meaning some of them will stay simply because there's no replacements. I predict Perez to replace Bottas for 2025.

If Williams extends with Sargeant, which seems likely, the 2024 season will start without a single rookie, a situation that has only occurred twice before, in 1969 and 2007.

EDIT: Arguing with my AI friend who claims that the only time a season have started with the same lineup as the previous season ended was 1974. That cannot be done if there's a rookie in there and eventually it found out that Vittorio Brambilla was indeed a rookie that year, replacing  Howden Ganley (we all remember him). If that information is correct, and Sargeant stays, 2024 will be the first season in history that starts with exactly the same lineup as they ended the previous season. Not a good rating for the feeder series.

Edited by Primo, 27 November 2023 - 16:28.

[F1matt]

Max Verstappen to add another title but have more competition than this year. 

 

Ferrari will have a quick car but between LeClerc’s cock ups, Ferrari’s strategy team watching love island during the race, and Carlos been left out on old tyres just in case there is a safety car will ensure they will fail again. 

 

Mercedes will finish 2nd; George will have a better season than this year and Lewis will be outstanding on Sunday despites his qualifying pace dropping off a bit. 

 

McLaren will continue to improve but will fall short, Oscar will beat Lando by a couple of points. 

 

Aston will flatter to deceive and 2023 was a flash in the pan. 

 

Daniel Riccardo will win a race. 

 

Liberty will announce the Play offs will be introduced in 2025. 

[jonklug]

Verstappen to win 20 races.

 

Norris to win 1 race.

 

Tsunoda to get a podium.

 

Lance Stroll's final year in F1. 

 

Gasly and Ocon to exchange punches. 

[Sndr]

the confidence with which people are writing off aston/alonso for next year is what makes me believe they will have an even better year than 2023.

[LolaB0860]

Reasons why not much of anything will change at the front:

- Cost cap limitations

- Considerable partition of spec parts as we know

- Engine tech freeze continues

- No testing

- Not much of change in technical regulations

- Even more races - 24 that is plus useless sprints - to dilute points further

Edited by LolaB0860, 27 November 2023 - 19:42.

[Heyli]

I'm going to make a very brave guess. I think Verstappen will win a race!

[aportinga]

• Max = 2024 WDC.
• Mercedes falls to fighting for 4th with Aston all season.
• McLaren and Ferrari will have epic battles for second in the WDC and leave Mercedes well behind.
• Hamilton openly contemplates retirement.
• Honda full on support behind AT/Boss and buys the team for 2025.
• Haas sells to Andretti after finishing last.
• Renault annouces they are back to branding the Alpine team for 2025 with Canon as a major sponsor 
• News of the season = Liberty in talks to acquire Indycar.

Edited by aportinga, 27 November 2023 - 20:17.

[FirstnameLastname]

Redbull found guilty of rule breaking. All titles since 2021 handed to Mercedes and Hamilton.

Hamilton retires immediately as 10xwdc

Verstappen spotted driving taxi in Amsterdam

[1player]

Redbull found guilty of rule breaking. All titles since 2021 handed to Mercedes and Hamilton.

Hamilton retires immediately as 10xwdc

Verstappen spotted driving taxi in Amsterdam

Massa wins his challenge for the 2008 season, so Hamilton retires as a 9x WDC

[noikeee]

Max to win, but McLaren emerge as the clear challengers. Lando and Oscar get their first wins and finish 2nd and 3rd in the championship.

In Mercedes camp changes are brewing. Toto Wolff steps away from Formula 1. There's rumours all year that Lewis will retire and Mercedes bring Antonelli straight in, but Lewis decides to honour his contract up to 2025 and Antonelli is loaned to Williams for 2025.

After internal turmoil in both teams between drivers, Sainz and Gasly swap seats for 2025. Ocon joins either Audi or Aston and Martins is next to Sainz for 2025.

Ricciardo is dropped midseason for Lawson. Alonso retires again. There's rumours all year both Miami and Vegas are trying to get out of their F1 deals after decreasing popular interest in the sport.

Adrian Newey retires but still has a hand in the 2025 RB car.

[JHSingo]

Norris continuing to bottle every opportunity to take pole or win a race.   

[JL14]

Just make your one prediction for the 2024 season.

Whether you go for a bold, a feared, a hopeful or a realistic one is up to you!

 

Mine:

Sergio Perez will not win a single race in 2024

[TMC44]

Final season in F1 for Zhou, Magnusson, Bottas and Ricciardo. Maybe Hamilton if he has another winless season and decides to call it a day.

Norris beats Piastri by 70 points. Sorry but as much as I like Piastri  I think the hype is a bit over the top.

Sainz is neck and neck with Leclerc causing the Ferrari thread to become the most toxic of the team threads. and it has to be locked.

Gasly and Ocon have a fight

Verstappen wins the title.

Edited by TMC44, 27 November 2023 - 21:51.

[Ali623]

Verstappen will win all 24 Grand Prix races

[Zmeej]

Lewis will go to Red Bull, produce a shift in Christian(‘s) love to him as well (doubt that Mr Horner will cease loving Max), and win his 8th title as Driver’s Champion.

 

Admittedly, this is hopeful, but it’s bold, and so, thanks to the excellent formulation of the thread’s title, it belongs here.

 

Also hope that this complex combination of hopes does not infringe on the rules set out in the OP.

Edited by Zmeej, 27 November 2023 - 22:04.

[Lennat]

Alonso signs to rejoin Ferrari for a farewell season or two.

No Mercedes win, as they continue to struggle in the engine parity/budget cap era.

The Ferrari is surprisingly decent, but not a match for the Red Bull. Leclerc ends up second in the championship.

Piastri wins a proper race, and Lando only wins a sprint.

Tsunoda outscores Ricciardo convincingly and gets the RB seat for 2025.

Lawson replaces Sargeant mid season and outscores Albon.

Drive to Survive is cancelled due to low ratings. ❤️

Minimum weight is raised to 823 kilos for 2026. 😿

[Autodromo]

George wins at least one race, maybe two

 

Haas throw in the towel after another season at the bottom.

 

McLaren fight Red Bull for supremacy under their #1 driver Piastri.

[cbo]

Mercedes produces another dud and Hamilton retires at the end of the season.

[George Costanza]

Max will win his fourth World Championship.

Or Fernando wins his third title.

Edited by George Costanza, 27 November 2023 - 23:03.

[jonklug]

Yuki Tsunoda will get at least one podium while Daniel will get none.

Edited by jonklug, 27 November 2023 - 23:25.

[NikL]

Andretti will be refused an entry by F1/Liberty Media, Audi backtrack and walk away from Sauber leaving them with no option but to sell to Andretti who can then stick 2 fingers up at Liberty Media.

[KLF1F]

Ferrari will win a race on strategy

[JimmyClark]

Lando will finally win a race.

[Frankbullitt]

Red Bull...and then everyone else.

[jonpollak]

Ferrari will win a race on strategy

Now we’re talking..
Jp

[dia6olo]

1) Another comfortable season for Max and Red Bull.

2) Ferrari will be a lot closer to Red Bull but not enough to trouble them over a season

3) Mercedes will do well to come out of it as third best as I think they just may end up behind McLaren unless they make a significant step.

[ARTGP]

I think it's worth specifying which of bold/feared/hopeful/realistic is intended by the poster but maybe it's funnier to leave that to the imagination...

 

For example:

 

Verstappen will win all 24 Grand Prix races

 

hopeful?

 

 

Ferrari will win a race on strategy

 

feared?

 

 

 

Edited by ARTGP, 28 November 2023 - 01:49.

[rghojai]

It don't say nothing about "2024 F1 season."

 

Generally hibernating Indycat says, "Kyle Larson -- the racing pride of Elk Grove, California -- wins the Indianapolis 500."

 

Edited by rghojai, 28 November 2023 - 05:36.

[kumo7]

The cat said something tho.

It said, McLaren will win races.

[Jackmancer]

Perez replaced mid-season

[rghojai]

The cat said something tho.

It said, McLaren will win races.

 

He didn't say if they would be F1, IndyCar or WEC.

[PayasYouRace]

Threads merged. We don’t need two.

[vlado]

It'll look very similar to this year.

[vlado]

Perez replaced mid-season

There are still people out there who believe he can beat VER over a season..

Edited by vlado, 28 November 2023 - 07:21.

[1player]

It don't say nothing about "2024 F1 season."

Generally hibernating Indycat says, "Kyle Larson -- the racing pride of Elk Grove, California -- wins the Indianapolis 500."

Off topic: What is the story with this cat? There are at least 4 posters on this forum with his funny face. Is this some inside joke that I'm not privy to?

[jonpollak]

Yes, it is…
Jp

[7MGTEsup]

Ferrari will win a race on strategy

 

They're a witch.....

[CSF]

It don't say nothing about "2024 F1 season."

 

Generally hibernating Indycat says, "Kyle Larson -- the racing pride of Elk Grove, California -- wins the Indianapolis 500."

 

 

Or crashes out. 

 

He's going to crash out. 

 

[red stick]

F1 drivers will complete on-track passes without complaining about some aspect of it on team radio.  

[Sterzo]

Ferrari will win a race on strategy

This is the one which will come true. At Austin, they'll put LeClerc on full wets in anticipation of rain that doesn't come. While he's complaining, Austin's defective drains burst and spread sewage over the track. The safety car's battery is flat, and LeClerc laps the field before it heads the queue.

[H0R]

Let's see what the crystal ball reveals:

 

1. Lando Norris will try to grow a beard. He fails.

2. One of Alonso or Hamilton decides to get a clean shave. In the face, that is. 

3. Zak Brown will hire at least two additional reserve drivers. O'Ward however will actually race in Mexico, because Norris accidentally swallowed the worm from a Mezcal bottle and is overwhelmed from joy and happiness thereafter.

4. Vettel sightings at three or more races. Neither can he let go of F1 nor decide to return. A free cockpit would be available, as Lance Stroll calls it a day after an abysmal outing at Monaco.

6. Ocon and Gasly rediscover their friendship and go on a romantic weekend trip to Blackpool. As this turns out a bit of a disaster they revert to antagonism.

7. Ferrari is in a bit of a mess and out of pure viciousness (It's I) LeClerc and Sainz race the helmet designs of Alesi and Berger in Monza.

[7MGTEsup]

This is the one which will come true. At Austin, they'll put LeClerc on full wets in anticipation of rain that doesn't come. While he's complaining, Austin's defective drains burst and spread sewage over the track. The safety car's battery is flat, and LeClerc laps the field before it heads the queue.

 

You're forgetting that lapped cars can un lap themselves behind the safety car.

[Ali623]

Mercedes will send out another 'Apology to our fans' letter after the 2024 Bahrain GP.

[Garagista]

One prediction I have is one of the big topics next year will be "grey areas" and "the spirit of the law".

 

The advantage Red Bull has will require some ingenuity  from the engineers and I can Imagine some Teams will try to play with the limits. 

 

I am sure if in Bahrain we have a real race those conversations will immediately start.

[YamahaV10]

I predict Russell/Hamilton to be beyond Hamilton/Rosberg level tension after 6 races. Russell is the toughest teammate Hamilton has ever had. No other teammate has edged him in qualifying over a season.