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Place The Points Competition 2023 final standings after Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 19:41

2023 final standings after Abu Dhabi:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  LolaB0860            1932  47
2)  KWSN-DSM             1907  49
3)  noikeee              1883  48
4)  Anderis              1835  51
=   LB                   1835  48
6)  scheivlak            1833  49
7)  M2000-5              1827  52
8)  Brawn BGP 001        1825  35
9)  GTA                  1823  45
10) Bleu                 1812  39
11) DutchQuicksilver     1806  48
12) Makarias             1783  49
13) mark f1              1741  51
14) SpaceHorseParty      1735  47
Congratulations to 2023 champion LolaB3860 :clap: :clap: :clap: for a clear win!
Congratulations also to runner-up KWSN-DSM :clap: :clap:
and to defending third place finisher noikeee :clap: !

The most exciting battle remaining was big tussle for fourth place, which ended up in a draw. Brawn dropped from fourth to eighth.

All 14 players will score points in the 2022 Supercup.

The entries
Entries rescaled for 22 races in the revised results post

PTPC Hall of Fame
Year  WDC   Game         Pl  Winner
 AD  Points  Win   %     #
2000   442   365  82.58  14  jack and gilles
2001   442   364  82.35  69  MrT, tacololo
2002   442   376  85.07  46  smarty
2003   624   537  86.06  41  arcsine
2004   702   554  78.98  48  Pioneer
2005   741   595  80.30  49  KWSN-DSM
2006   702   592  84.33  47  an1res
2007   663   563  84.92  40  turin
2008   702   597  85.04  39  AcuraF1
2009   731   518  70.86  29  D82
2010  1919  1674  87.23  34  Costaz
2011  1919  1664  86.71  25  Crazy Canuck
2012  2020  1706  84.46  28  Costaz
2013  1919  1656  86.29  27  scheivlak
2014  1919  1602  83.48  30  noikeee
2015  1919  1710  89.11* 25  mark f1
2016  2121  1751  82.56  25  Brawn BGP 001
2017  2020  1861  92.13  22  Kev00
2018  2121  1943  91.61  25  thegforcemaybewithyou
2019  2121  1791  84.44  23  mark f1
2020  1717  1455  84.74  17  SpaceHorseParty
2021  2222  1972  88.75  18  M2000-5
2022  2222  1963  88.34  15  Anderis
2023  2222  1932  86.95  14  LolaB0860
*2020 points in the guesses

The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Laws    INF,8    200,0   14
Ricc    INF,8    600,0   14
Norr    253,9    172,6   14
Albo    218,8     52,1   13
Pias    198,9    117,4   14
Alon    150,4    102,6   14
Vers    131,3    107,6   14
Stro    116,7     59,1   11
Tsun    101,1     59,1    7
Pere     97,0     84,0    4
Gasl     89,6     61,4    3
Hami     88,0     73,4    2
Sain     78,0     64,0    1
Ocon     73,2     52,8    1
Russ     71,0     58,0    0
Lecl     66,0     54,6    0
Sarg     37,8     10,0    1
Zhou     36,1     20,0    1
Hülk     28,3     14,6    0
Bott     24,2     17,2    0
Magn     12,7      6,1    0
Fernando Alonso becomes the sixth 100% surprise of the season! Yuki Tsunoda beats his expectations!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2023 this is 14.

Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen             Leclerc                Russell                Perez                  Norris              
* Potential     521    GTA             338    mark f1         268    Makarias        306    * Potential     183
* Forecast      521    Brawn BGP 001   317    SpaceHorseParty 258    noikeee         304    * Forecast      183
* Current       521    mark f1         316    Makarias        247    M2000-5         282    * Current       183
LolaB0860       483    LB              292    LolaB0860       230    SpaceHorseParty 277    LB              105
noikeee         448    scheivlak       292    M2000-5         229    Anderis         276    Bleu             98
M2000-5         429    M2000-5         289    DutchQuicksilver228    DutchQuicksilver273    M2000-5          89
Makarias        417    DutchQuicksilver288    Bleu            215    LolaB0860       268    LolaB0860        86
DutchQuicksilver405    Anderis         280    LB              215    LB              259    mark f1          86
Anderis         404    Bleu            278    Brawn BGP 001   214    * Potential     258    KWSN-DSM         84
KWSN-DSM        396    SpaceHorseParty 277    scheivlak       213    KWSN-DSM        258    Brawn BGP 001    82
Brawn BGP 001   383    Makarias        272    Anderis         206    mark f1         258    scheivlak        78
SpaceHorseParty 383    KWSN-DSM        234    noikeee         199    * Forecast      258    DutchQuicksilver 71
scheivlak       378    noikeee         230    KWSN-DSM        192    * Current       258    Anderis          69
GTA             373    LolaB0860       220    GTA             163    scheivlak       256    Makarias         49
LB              364    * Potential     185    * Potential     156    GTA             253    GTA              48
mark f1         363    * Forecast      185    * Forecast      156    Brawn BGP 001   228    SpaceHorseParty  38
Bleu            328    * Current       185    * Current       156    Bleu            227    noikeee          26
Put points in good places and not in bad places. The top three all placed little on the Ferraris this year.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Piastri                Alonso                 Tsunoda                Hamilton               Stroll              
* Potential      81    * Potential     197    GTA              21    Brawn BGP 001   289    noikeee         114
* Forecast       81    * Forecast      197    KWSN-DSM         19    mark f1         277    M2000-5          87
* Current        81    * Current       197    mark f1          19    SpaceHorseParty 273    GTA              86
Bleu             68    GTA             191    Bleu             17    LB              259    * Potential      68
LolaB0860        67    KWSN-DSM        187    M2000-5          17    Makarias        259    * Forecast       68
Anderis          57    noikeee         184    scheivlak        17    Bleu            246    * Current        68
Brawn BGP 001    53    Brawn BGP 001   138    * Potential      13    scheivlak       242    Bleu             65
KWSN-DSM         47    Bleu            134    Anderis          13    DutchQuicksilver240    SpaceHorseParty  58
scheivlak        46    LB              129    * Forecast       13    LolaB0860       234    LolaB0860        57
LB               43    scheivlak       129    * Current        13    M2000-5         233    Brawn BGP 001    55
mark f1          38    M2000-5         121    Makarias         11    noikeee         225    Anderis          49
DutchQuicksilver 36    DutchQuicksilver117    DutchQuicksilver 10    Anderis         215    LB               48
M2000-5          33    Anderis         109    LB               10    * Potential     213    scheivlak        48
Makarias         27    LolaB0860       105    noikeee           9    * Forecast      213    Makarias         47
noikeee          20    SpaceHorseParty 105    Brawn BGP 001     8    * Current       213    KWSN-DSM         45
SpaceHorseParty  18    Makarias         99    LolaB0860         5    GTA             201    DutchQuicksilver 35
GTA              17    mark f1          86    SpaceHorseParty   4    KWSN-DSM        197    mark f1          22
With hindsight my own Piastri guess feels pretty dumb, but it's easy to forget how weak McLaren looked early in the season.

The PTPC forecast after Las Vegas
Name               Forecast  +/-
LolaB0860            1927,9  13,3
KWSN-DSM             1901,0  15,5
noikeee              1889,5  20,8
LB                   1838,2  15,1
scheivlak            1833,5  13,4
Anderis              1829,8  16,8
M2000-5              1824,7  12,4
Brawn BGP 001        1822,2   9,7
GTA                  1818,2  20,7
Bleu                 1813,1  11,4
DutchQuicksilver     1809,8  12,4
Makarias             1783,2  15,2
mark f1              1741,5  15,0
SpaceHorseParty      1736,8  15,6

The best guesses on each driver
 X --->   <---Y
Vers 521 483 LolaB0860
Pere 258 258 KWSN-DSM, mark f1
Hami 213 215 Anderis
Alon 197 191 GTA
Lecl 185 220 Lola B0860
Norr 183 105 LB
Sain 178 179 Brawn BGP 001
Russ 156 163 GTA
Pias  81  68 Bleu
Stro  68  65 Bleu
Gasl  54  56 LB, scheivlak; 52: Makarias
Ocon  56  62 SpaceHorseParty
Albo  25  17 scheivlak
Tsun  13  13 Anderis
Bott  10  22 GTA
Hülk   6  12 M2000-5
Ricc   6   0 Everyone
Zhou   6   5 mark f1
Magn   3  11 M2000-5
Laws   2   0 Everyone
Sarg   1   1 DutchQuicksilver, M2000-5, Makarias, noikeee
deVr   0   4 Brawn BGP 001, GTA
If you can't win the title it's a nice consolation price to be an expert on some particular driver.
Note that  FL and quali race points don't count in this game.

Reality check on some of our predictions

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team  Pred  Result
RBR    663  +116
Ferr   508  -145
Merc   462  - 93
Asto   189  + 76
Alpi   137  - 27
McLa   113  +151
Alfa    58  - 42
Haas    45  - 36
ATau    33  - 12
Will    14  + 12
McLaren has been one of the trickiest teams to predict for a couple of years now.

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner               Owned Comment
     <-     =    ->
Albo  14    0    0  Sarg Correct
Alon  14    0    0  Stro Correct
Bott  14    0    0  Zhou Correct
Hami  14    0    0  Russ Correct
Lecl  14    0    0  Sain Correct
Norr  14    0    0  Pias Correct
Vers  14    0    0  Pere Correct
Ocon  13    0    1  Gasl Correct*
deVr  11    1    2  Tsun Wrong
Magn   9    0    5  Hülk Wrong
*Ocon barely outscored Gasly in the points that count in this game. In the actual WDC, Gasly ended up ahead of Ocon thanks to Sprint points. Close battle in either case!
Leclerc only moved ahead of Sainz at Abu Dhabi, so that one was much closer than our guesses suggest.

When I tell you to have a nice off-season, a merry christmas and a happy new year it's not me bossing you around, it is merely a suggestion. Do with it as you see fit! :)

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#2 mark f1

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 20:40

thanks Mak for a great game!  Serves me right for doing my guesses before the pre-season testing and then forgetting to update them...

 

Edit - congrats too LolaB0860!


Edited by mark f1, 28 November 2023 - 09:09.


#3 Anderis

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 20:53

Wow, somehow ended up 4th despite being predicted to finish much lower by the forecast for most of the season. :eek:

 

Congratulations, LolaB0860! :up:

 

Thank you, Makarias! :up:



#4 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 20:57

Congratulations LolaB0860 it was a good fight through the season>

Big thank you to Makarias for running this once again this year, if you run it next I will be back.



#5 noikeee

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Posted 28 November 2023 - 12:12

Congrats Lola!



#6 Anderis

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Posted 28 November 2023 - 14:54

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner               Owned Comment
     <-     =    ->
Albo  14    0    0  Sarg Correct
Alon  14    0    0  Stro Correct
Bott  14    0    0  Zhou Correct
Hami  14    0    0  Russ Correct
Lecl  14    0    0  Sain Correct
Norr  14    0    0  Pias Correct
Vers  14    0    0  Pere Correct
Ocon  13    0    1  Gasl Correct*
deVr  11    1    2  Tsun Wrong
Magn   9    0    5  Hülk Wrong

Interesting to see how wrong we've got Tsunoda vs De Vries. I guess De Vries fooled us all with his Monza performance last year. Well, I was the one who had them on equal points so at least I was less wrong than 11 out of 13 other players. :cool:



#7 LolaB0860

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Posted 28 November 2023 - 20:40

All the way from mid-summerish, it's been a battle to defend (from the forecast front that is, as otherwise I was far behind), and it's been a joy to follow! Thanks to Makarias again and to my fellow points-collectors, hope to see you next year

 

To celebrate, here's actual photo of the lovely lady B08/60 in hands of Speedy Sebah (Rebellion later on)

 

863406.jpg



#8 Bleu

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Posted 10 December 2023 - 18:59

Lowest predictions for Red Bull drivers and among the highest for McLaren guys. Very close on Stroll total.

 

Didn't bring me better than 10th though.