Mostly based on the momentum of the end of 2023 carrying to 2024 and stable regulations:
1. Red Bull - Hard to look past them. Their race pace is so strong, I don’t think any team will catch up that much to beat them on a regular basis.
2. Ferrari - One lap pace is closest to Red Bull (sometimes faster). If they get the race pace sorted, P2 is theirs.
3. McLaren - Let’s hope they don’t botch up their car again at the start and carry the momentum of 2023 into 2024.
4. Mercedes - I just don’t see any signs they’ll gain so much that they become championship contenders next season.
5. Aston Martin - 2023 was so good because they switch focus early in 2022. I don’t believe that’s the case right now, so 5th is the max.
6. Alpine - Should basically stay where they are. Best of the midfield, sometimes challenging Aston Martin.
7. Alpha Tauri/Racing Bulls - Pretty much the same story as McLaren. They have the momentum going into 2024 by their strong end to the season.
8. Williams - Will pretty much stay where they are. On low downforce tracks Albon will do nice things again.
9. Sauber - Really want it to be 2026. I think next season and 2025 will just be about finishing those seasons.
10. Haas - Will pretty much stay as they are. Strong one lap pace, going backwards again on Sunday because they still can’t fix their tyre issues.