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Pecking order according to experts


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#1 RainyAfterlifeDaylight

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 16:27

What were you thinking!? I mean, you are the expert.

 

Here is my prediction before the cars hitting the track. I don't need any more data  :smoking:

 

1. AstonMartin: The car is love. It is the fastest.

 

2. Mercedes: Overall a well balanced car

 

3 & 4. Ferrari and McLaren: Evenly matched but they need time to sort out some correlation issues

 

5. RedBull: The fact that their car is half revolutionary and they are copying others' solutions (Very rare to see), I guess they are not the fastest and they will need time to sort out their car.

 

6 & 7. AlphaTauri and Williams

 

8 & 9. Alpine and Sauber

 

10. HAAS

 

11. Andretti: Sorry


Edited by RainyAfterlifeDaylight, 16 February 2024 - 16:30.


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#2 lewislorenzo

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 16:32

RB

Ferrari, Mcl, Merc

AM

Alpine


The rest

#3 PayasYouRace

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 16:49

I saw a good post somewhere that pointed out that the order of the team launches was a good prediction for the pecking order this year, slowest to fastest.



#4 ARTGP

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 16:53

I saw a good post somewhere that pointed out that the order of the team launches was a good prediction for the pecking order this year, slowest to fastest.

 

Was the argument more on the basis of coincidence or that, truly, the order of launches is a basis for pecking order?



#5 Alexis*27

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 16:59

It was actually the pecking order for the season just gone, and a complete coincidence anyway.



#6 ATM

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:05

I don't claim to be an expert, far from it-but I'm having a hard time believing that RBR dropped the ball in a year în which 1. there were no major rule changes, so all cars are pretty much evolutions of last year's iteration and 2. RBR had ample time-far more than everybody else-to sort ouț the inherent development bugs. Hell, if the current car îs somehow a bathtub, they could run a (rule upgraded) last year's car and probably still fight for wins.
Other than that, I se Ferrari 2nd, then a group of Mercedes/Aston/McLaren.
For the others, no idea.

#7 dia6olo

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:07

1) Red Bull  -  (I can't see anything but another comfortable year for Max & Red Bull)
2) Ferrari  -  (I feel they went into 2023 somewhat handicapped with the changes that were taking place & that they will get back on track this year)
 
3/4) McLaren, Mercedes  -  (I’m not as convinced as some with McLaren, I feel that with 2 of the big 3 teams not turning up in 2023 (Mercedes, Ferrari), it flattered McLaren)
                                            (Not sure about Mercedes, they look a little lost to me, on the one hand it’s "Mercedes" but on the other it isn’t really anymore, it’s not the same team that won so much with the previous regs...)
 
The rest...

Edited by dia6olo, 16 February 2024 - 21:43.


#8 Autodromo

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:15

RB could probably win the WDC and WCC with last years car.



#9 sheSgoTthElooK

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:20

Red Bull is kicking their own butt. They will be competitive but the off track turmoil may become their kryptonite…

 

Good news for Ferrari and Mercedes. Bless them with brain and speed. 



#10 H0R

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:26

Red Bull

[huge gap]

 

 

 

Red Bull2

[big gap]

 

 

Ferrari

Merc

[considerable gap]

 

McLaren - Aston Martin - Williams (yes, really)

bit of a gap

Alpine

close behind

Sauber - Haas



#11 TomNokoe

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:29

Red Bull

Ferrari - good progress last year, confidence in their concept + drivers seem happy

A-Martin - clear evolution + bullish quotes about competitiveness

Mercedes - new concept + admitted they have been held back by budget cap

McLaren - Stella says they are a little behind

VCARB - quick already end of last year + extra Red Bull integration + drivers say clear step forward

Alpine - already said they will be slow at the start of the year

Sauber

Williams - running late, could swap places w Sauber, not sure

Haas - Komatsu said they will be last + tyre issues

#12 vlado

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:49

RB could probably win the WDC and WCC with last years car.

 

Isn't the Visa cash app car basically that? It will be really interesting to see how it does. 



#13 mclarensmps

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:51

RB

Ferrari, Mcl, Merc

AM

Alpine


The rest

My reading as well



#14 dia6olo

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:53

RB could probably win the WDC and WCC with last years car.

I can't agree with that, I think if they turned up with last years car they'd be in trouble as far as the championships go.


Edited by dia6olo, 16 February 2024 - 18:41.


#15 frosty125

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 17:55



McLaren - Stella says they are a little behind

He didn’t say that. He actually said they have seen the same development rate as last year (which was crazy high) but they haven’t done everything they want yet (who has?) i.e they have lots of upgrades in the pipeline

#16 pacificquay

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 18:12

I always forget every year how anti-McLaren this forum is.

 

Id’d hope and expect:

 

 

Red Bull

McLaren

 

Mercedes

Ferrari

Aston Martin

 

Alpine    Sauber     Williams

 

Racing Bulls

 

 

 

 

Haas



#17 Red5ive

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 18:22

RB

 

AM / MERC / Ferrari

 

MCL

 

Williams

 

Alpine / VCARBXYZABC1TWO3

 

Stake and chips

 

Haas



#18 frosty125

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 18:39

Red Bull

McLaren

Ferrari
Mercedes

Aston Martin

Alpine

RB
Williams
Stake
Haas

#19 ConsiderAndGo

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 19:42

Get this wrong every year and no doubt I will again this year.

RedBull




Ferrari / McLaren / AM, depending on circuit
Merc

Alpine / Racing Bulls

Williams / Sauber
Haas

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#20 messy

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 20:22

I have genuine hope that Red Bull won’t have it so easy this season. That will probably last until the first test, then it’ll be depression central listening to all the experts waxing lyrical about how Red Bull are way ahead again. But for now, I like the look of the Mercedes and McLaren especially, and Ferrari who knows as ever.

#21 Laster

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 20:40

Red Bull

 

Mercedes

Mclaren

Ferrari

 

Aston Martin

Minardi

Alpine

 

Williams

Sauber

 

Haas

 

I prefer to do these after testing as there really is nothing to go on beyond the look of a car and I'm no aerodynamicist. But it's all in good fun to look back on years end and find out how badly I got things wrong.


Edited by Laster, 16 February 2024 - 20:42.


#22 Dolph

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 21:40

RB

Ferrari, Mcl, Merc

AM

Alpine


The rest

 

 

 

 

My reading as well

 

 

So 2023 order


Edited by Dolph, 16 February 2024 - 21:40.


#23 Mc_Silver

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 21:48

Rb

McLaren

Mercedes
Ferrari
Aston Martin
Alpine
Williams
Stake F1
Visa Cash App
Haas

#24 Countersteer

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Posted 16 February 2024 - 23:47

Red Bull = Ferrari

Mercedes = McLaren = Aston Martin = VCARB

Alpine

Stake = Williams

Haas

#25 w1Y

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 03:10

Red Bull

Large gap

Ferrari/merc/mclaren dependent on track
Am

ALlpine/Williams/vcarb
Red bull 2
Stake
Haas

#26 aray

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 05:13

RB
Mclaren, Merc, AM
Ferrari
RB2
Alpine
Rest

#27 YamahaV10

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 05:21

Surprised of how low McLaren is in these.

Red Bull
McLaren, Mercedes , Ferrari, Aston Martin
Alpine, Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
Haas

#28 Benchulo

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 05:25

Aston Martin/McLaren

Red Bull

Ferrari

Mercedes

Minardi/Williams/Alpine

Sauber/Haas

#29 Beri

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 07:38

1) Mercedes - Car looks sleek
2) Aston Martin - Alonso
3) McLaren - Hype train
4) Williams - Why not?
5-9) The others
10) Red Bull - Looks like a battle cruiser

#30 Gary Davies

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 08:21

I saw a good post somewhere that pointed out that the order of the team launches was a good prediction for the pecking order this year, slowest to fastest.

 

A good observation. Back in the days of McLaren's Ron Dennis/Marlboro pomp the team was frequently the last to unveil their contender for the forthcoming year. 



#31 TheFish

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 08:22

Red Bull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mercedes / Ferrari / McLaren

 

AM

 

The rest



#32 Gambelli

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 10:07

Surprised of how low McLaren is in these.

Red Bull
McLaren, Mercedes , Ferrari, Aston Martin
Alpine, Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
Haas

 

I agree entirely with this, maybe even with VCARB winning out on points vs Alpine over the season



#33 lewislorenzo

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:03

Surprised of how low McLaren is in these.

Red Bull
McLaren, Mercedes , Ferrari, Aston Martin
Alpine, Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
Haas


First thing I agree with you…parallel universe

#34 noikeee

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:04

My ocular wind tunnel is not calibrated well enough to rank the cars through the pictures we've seen. Ask me next week

#35 RedRabbit

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:15

Red Bull*, Ferrari
Aston Martin, McLaren
Mercedes, VCARB
Williams, Alpine, Haas, Sauber

Depends on Horner's situation.

Edited by RedRabbit, 17 February 2024 - 11:17.


#36 PlatenGlass

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:23

Anyone but Red Bull
Red Bull
The rest

#37 Beri

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:37

Red Bull*, Ferrari
Aston Martin, McLaren
Mercedes, VCARB
Williams, Alpine, Haas, Sauber
Depends on Horner's situation.


If Horner gets the boot, the organization is so gelled in and professionally set up, that an immediate relapse will highly likely not occur. On the long term it will be down to choices made and team members leaving or staying. But Horner has no immediate influence on the daily tasks and processes that senior management under him do manage. So the team will not drop back I think.

#38 noikeee

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:41

If Horner gets the boot, the organization is so gelled in and professionally set up, that an immediate relapse will highly likely not occur. On the long term it will be down to choices made and team members leaving or staying. But Horner has no immediate influence on the daily tasks and processes that senior management under him do manage. So the team will not drop back I think.


People that think a team manager leaving is the same as immediately adding 20kg of ballast to the cars, might be a little disappointed...

#39 RedRabbit

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:48

I don't want to bring that discussion here, but there is word that the team itself is fully behind him, and if he is forced out, a decent number might follow.

An exodus always has an effect on performance. Red Bull haven't had to deal with a new Team Principal before either.

They wouldn't suddenly plummet down the order, but they'd certainly be a bit more vulnerable if another team gets its act together a bit more.

They're a well oiled team because of him.

Edited by RedRabbit, 17 February 2024 - 11:51.


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#40 krapmeister

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:48

Horner leaving probably wouldn't have much of an effect this season, but it's the ripple effects that might play out over the longer term that could lead to a premature decline...

#41 ATM

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 11:49

Well, not immediately but medium term side effects might appear; one exemple might be the death of Niki Lauda and the Mercedes brain drain that followed (în my humble opinion, Niki might have helped managing the situation better). Of curse, RBR might counterreact correctly and avoid most of the hiccups but-given where they are situated now, top of the tops-one key individual leaving will probably send them on a downward trajectory rather than a climbing one.

#42 Brian60

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Posted 17 February 2024 - 12:26

I honestly believe that Mercedes when they had the senior staff shuffle, then really needed to try and get Ross Brawn back on board as joint technical director with James Allison. James is a good designer, but what better than to have on board the guy who crafted the current car design limits? Surely having his inside knowledge and past design experience would have helped tremendously.

 

So to me its going to be a toss up between Mercedes and a Red Bull that has seemingly taken a step back by having a variation of Mercs 22 zero pod concept - allied to the team trouble at present. Next I think its going to be a close run thing between Ferrari and the Astons, especially if Aston get  a flying start like last year.

 

Followed by McLaren, however I suspect they are going to have some good outings, I'm looking forward to what could in fact turn out to be a second Ham/Rosberg situation between their drivers. Thinking about it, I should really put them in Aston Ferrari group for a 3 way battle.

 

As for the rest, sadi to say they are still saddles with lack of investment despite the cost cap to ever do anything other than finish in the bottom half of the field - barring any unforeseen circumstance such as weather etc.



#43 Forghieri

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 12:42

I feel like there is something in these pre-season predictions that most of us can relate to, regardless of the team we support. Until the cars put their wheels on the asphalt for the first time, we can hope that our team has finally put everything together and will show to the world what it is capable of. We cling to every clue that our team is firmly on the right track and we tend to dismiss every contrary evidence. Despite all previous experience, we try to convince ourselves that this time is not like all the others. This time we’ll show them. Then the races begin and for most of us it’s all over and we have to postpone our dreams to the following season.

 

In a totally different age and setting, this kind of feeling was well captured by the Italian poet and writer Giacomo Leopardi in his “Dialogue Between an Almanac Seller and a Passer-By”, one of my favorite writings of all time. Should anyone be interested in it, you can find it here:

https://www.antholog...iacomo-leopardi


Edited by Forghieri, 20 February 2024 - 12:42.


#44 RainyAfterlifeDaylight

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 13:12

1. AstonMartin: The car is love. It is the fastest.

 

2. Mercedes: Overall a well balanced car

 

3 & 4. Ferrari and McLaren: Evenly matched but they need time to sort out some correlation issues

 

5. RedBull: The fact that their car is half revolutionary and they are copying others' solutions (Very rare to see), I guess they are not the fastest and they will need time to sort out their car.

 

6 & 7. AlphaTauri and Williams

 

8 & 9. Alpine and Sauber

 

10. HAAS

 

11. Andretti: Sorry

 

Apparently Ferrari is gonna be as fast as AstonMartin challenging for the wins based on my recent opinion, so here is the new pecking order ...

 

1 & 2. AstonMartin VS Ferrari
 
3. Mercedes
 
4. McLaren
 
5. RedBull
 
6 & 7. AlphaTauri VS Williams
 
8 & 9. Alpine VS Sauber
 
10. HAAS

Edited by RainyAfterlifeDaylight, 20 February 2024 - 13:12.


#45 sladealonso

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 13:58

Red Bull

Ferrari

 

McLaren/Merc/AM

VCARB

 

Alpine

Williams

Sauber

Haas



#46 Sterzo

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 16:38

I feel like there is something in these pre-season predictions that most of us can relate to, regardless of the team we support. Until the cars put their wheels on the asphalt for the first time, we can hope that our team has finally put everything together and will show to the world what it is capable of.

Ahem. There's a substantial number of us who don't see the need to support a team or driver. We just like motor racing.



#47 AlexPrime

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 17:03

I don't trust the experts, gut feeling is that it will be close, but I wouldn't trust it too much. More than the experts though. I remember one winter during which they promised that Ferrari is ahead and Merc obliterated them.



#48 Alfisti

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 17:15

The Red Bull looking so wild really has thrown the cat amongst the pidgeons. You get the feeling it's wither gonna walk it or they've mis-stepped and suddenly the others are right there. If it was a simple evolution of the 2023 car i'd be feeling less hopeful of some competition. 

 

Testing in recent years has been very, very accurate if you looked at the long run pace. The one lap pace is deceiving because tyres are not in the equation but the long runs, with fuel, have been very, very accurate predictors. 



#49 STRFerrari4Ever

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 17:18

The expert has arrived and it’s time for my expertise to deliver the definitive pecking order;

1) Red Bull
2) Ferrari
3) McLaren
4) Aston Martin
5) Mercedes
6) RB
7) Alpine
8) Williams
9) Sauber/Stake/Kick
10) Haas

Subject to change of course but for the first 5 races this will be it 🌚

Edited by STRFerrari4Ever, 20 February 2024 - 17:18.


#50 Risil

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Posted 20 February 2024 - 17:18

I'm setting my stall out. Top seven teams within a quarter of a second of each other. Best season ever. 10 drivers in title contention at Abu Dhabi and the FIA screw it up somehow and the forum servers melt.