116 replies to this topic

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

 

1 & 2. AstonMartin VS Ferrari

 

3. Mercedes

 

4. McLaren

 

5. RedBull

 

6 & 7. AlphaTauri VS Williams

 

8 & 9. Alpine VS Sauber

 

10. HAAS

Ok, the moment of truth:

 

1. RedBull

2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes

4. McLaren

5. AstonMartin

6. Sauber

7. HAAS

8. RB

9. Williams

10. Alpine

[dia6olo]

 

1) Red Bull  -  (I can't see anything but another comfortable year for Max & Red Bull)

2) Ferrari  -  (I feel they went into 2023 somewhat handicapped with the changes that were taking place & that they will get back on track this year)

 

3/4) McLaren, Mercedes  -  (I’m not as convinced as some with McLaren, I feel that with 2 of the big 3 teams not turning up in 2023 (Mercedes, Ferrari), it flattered McLaren)

                                            (Not sure about Mercedes, they look a little lost to me, on the one hand it’s "Mercedes" but on the other it isn’t really anymore, it’s not the same team that won so much with the previous regs...)

 

The rest...

 

Only two races in but I'm on track 

I Fancied Ferrari would be Red Bulls nearest challengers though I thought they would be a little closer than what it currently looks like.

And I had a feeling both Mercedes and McLaren would be tight but adrift of Ferrari.

 

Early days of course but so far so good 

[William Hunt]

Ok, the moment of truth:

 

1. RedBull

2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes

4. McLaren

5. AstonMartin

6. Sauber

7. HAAS

8. RB

9. Williams

10. Alpine

I would say that, after 2 races it's:

 

1 Red Bull

 

 

2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes  & McLaren (at least in Jeddah, McLaren was more competitive there, over the whole season I expext Mercedes to outscore McLaren but it might be a tight fight)
5. Aston Martin  (Stroll really needs to be replaced by a better driver, like Drugovich, he is holding them back)

6. RB  (haven't shown their true potential yet, they experienced issues with tyre wear, if they can fix that they should be 6th in the pecking order. Ricciardo needs to show that his Jeddah form was not what we may expect the rest of the year or he risks even to get dumped early)

7. Haas & Williams   (Haas' drivers worked together as a team in Jeddah, at Williams Sargeant really should at least beat Albon once or match him, Sargeant still keeps on making these mistakes every weekend)

9. Sauber  (Zhou was a magnificent 11th in Bahrein, but if they keep on messing up their strategy and pit stops as they often do and also did in Jeddah, they could even drop to 10th, it's frustrating for their drivers with the team so often dropping the ball in the pits)

10. Alpine (lacking horsepower, poor car, they are currently clearly ln the worst position but as a factory team t hey should be able to overhaul some teams and climb to +- 7th over the year. The chaotic management is not helping them at all, they lack stability, it may even lead to Ocon and or Gasly to start looking elsewhere, they are both end of contract)

[dia6olo]

I would say that, after 2 races it's:

 

1 Red Bull

 

 

2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes  & McLaren (at least in Jeddah, McLaren was more competitive there, over the whole season I expext Mercedes to outscore McLaren but it might be a tight fight)
5. Aston Martin  (Stroll really needs to be replaced by a better driver, like Drugovich, he is holding them back)

6. RB  (haven't shown their true potential yet, they experienced issues with tyre wear, if they can fix that they should be 6th in the pecking order. Ricciardo needs to show that his Jeddah form was not what we may expect the rest of the year or he risks even to get dumped early)

7. Haas & Williams   (Haas' drivers worked together as a team in Jeddah, at Williams Sargeant really should at least beat Albon once or match him, Sargeant still keeps on making these mistakes every weekend)

9. Sauber  (Zhou was a magnificent 11th in Bahrein, but if they keep on messing up their strategy and pit stops as they often do and also did in Jeddah, they could even drop to 10th, it's frustrating for their drivers with the team so often dropping the ball in the pits)

10. Alpine (lacking horsepower, poor car, they are currently clearly ln the worst position but as a factory team t hey should be able to overhaul some teams and climb to +- 7th over the year. The chaotic management is not helping them at all, they lack stability, it may even lead to Ocon and or Gasly to start looking elsewhere, they are both end of contract)

Ferrari were 21 seconds ahead of car number 3 (Mercedes) in Bahrain.

They were 14 seconds which would have been around another 20 seconds but for a safety car ahead of car number 3 (Mclaren) in Saudi Arabia.

And Ferrari were not a million miles off those same distances from Red Bull so after two races it's a lot more like...

 

1 Red Bull

 

2. Ferrari

 

3. Mercedes  & McLaren

5. Aston Martin

[Gambelli]

 

Ferrari were 21 seconds ahead of car number 3 (Mercedes) in Bahrain.

They were 14 seconds which would have been around another 20 seconds but for a safety car ahead of car number 3 (Mclaren) in Saudi Arabia.

And Ferrari were not a million miles off those same distances from Red Bull so after two races it's a lot more like...

 

1 Red Bull

 

2. Ferrari

 

3. Mercedes  & McLaren

5. Aston Martin

 

 

I'd probably argue that had Piastri not been stuck behind Hamilton he'd have been much closer to Leclerc than that.  He was hanging on okay before the safety car.

 

I wouldn't bet the world on it of course, just my feeling....

[Mc_Silver]

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari (0.3)
3. McLaren / Mercedes (0.5)
5. Aston Martin ((0.8)

Edited by Mc_Silver, 13 March 2024 - 06:29.

[Gambelli]

1. Red Bull
2. Ferreri (0.3)
3. McLaren / Mercedes (0.5)
5. Aston Martin ((0.8)

 

Yep, pretty fair, 3/4/5 will jump around a bit for a while I guess.

 

Surprising how big the gap is after that, I guess it's because it's a gap we usually expect Alpine to fill, and towards the end of last year Alpha Tauri was in there too

[dia6olo]

I'd probably argue that had Piastri not been stuck behind Hamilton he'd have been much closer to Leclerc than that.  He was hanging on okay before the safety car.

 

I wouldn't bet the world on it of course, just my feeling....

That's a fair point but I could also argue that had Leclerc not been in no mans land he could have gone quite a bit quicker.

He had enough tyre left at the end to do the fastest lap on tyres that were 43 laps old and could have probably done another race on them.

Bearman showed on old hard tyres in his first race that the Ferrari had plenty more, he had no problems in keeping Mercedes and McLaren at bay who were both on fresh softs.

Edited by dia6olo, 13 March 2024 - 11:02.

[Ruudbackus]

That's a fair point but I could also argue that had Leclerc not been in no mans land he could have gone quite a bit quicker.

He had enough tyre left at the end to do the fastest lap on tyres that were 43 laps old and could have probably done another race on them.

Bearman showed on old hard tyres in his first race that the Ferrari had plenty more, he had no problems in keeping Mercedes and McLaren at bay who were both on fresh softs.

If you look that way to the cars behind ferrari you also need to look that way to the cars in front. That gap is flattered as well by the safety car (in saudi) and I'm pretty sure the redbulls aren't pushing it all out either. Thats the era of f1 we live in.

[dia6olo]

If you look that way to the cars behind ferrari you also need to look that way to the cars in front. That gap is flattered as well by the safety car (in saudi) and I'm pretty sure the redbulls aren't pushing it all out either. Thats the era of f1 we live in.

In fairness I did in my head, it's one of those you can't really measure because and so we will never really know.

What we do know as fact is the final gaps and with that in mind my initial analysis stands.

We also know as the telemetry highlights it that Max tried for the fastest lap with a couple of laps or so to go and lost out to Leclerc.

Edited by dia6olo, 13 March 2024 - 14:18.

[Ruudbackus]

In fairness I did in my head, it's one of those measure you can't really measure because we will never really know.

What we do know as fact is the final gaps and with that in mind my initial analysis stands.

We also know as the telemetry highlights it that Max tried for the fastest lap with a couple of laps or so to go and lost out to Leclerc.

True, Max tried it in the last lap too and was aiming at the time of Hamilton at that moment (he didn't get it though) . Its just a bloody shame that all this tire management stuff hides the real differences. 

[Garagista]

Based on feeling in those 2 races pecking order is more in my opinion:

 

Max

 

Perez/Leclerc

Sainz?

 

then "The Rest", here the gap will be moving as at least Mclaren I believe in their upgrades, and will already be strong in some tracks.

 

For now I am using Alonso as measuring stick, he is already saying Red Bull and Ferrari are above (not together I infer), Aston then is the slowest of the next 3.

[ANF]

The way I see it going into Melbourne:

1 Red Bull
2 Ferrari
3 McLaren
  Mercedes
5 Aston Martin
6 Alpine
  Haas
  RB
  Sauber
  Williams

The bottom half will spread out as the cars are developed. Will anybody challenge Aston Martin for 5th best?

[Ali623]

Regarding race pace from the first two races, it averages:

 

Red Bull

 

Ferrari +0.45

 

McLaren +0.75

Mercedes +0.8

 

Aston Martin +1

 

 

Obviously a few variables like Mercedes' engine issues in Bahrain that apparently cost them 1-2 tenths a lap. The rest of the midfield is too difficult to tell so far, partially because Magnussen held them all up in SA. They're generally about 0.5s off Aston Martin at least anyway.

[Cadence]

I think Aston Martin are a lot closer to McLaren than many realize.

So for Melbourne I'm going with:

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. McLaren/Aston Martin
5. Mercedes
6. RB
7. Alpine
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Kick Sauber

E. This isn't representative of total constructors points, simply race performance @ Melbourne.

Edited by Cadence, 13 March 2024 - 13:07.

[Gambelli]

That's a fair point but I could also argue that had Leclerc not been in no mans land he could have gone quite a bit quicker.

He had enough tyre left at the end to do the fastest lap on tyres that were 43 laps old and could have probably done another race on them.

Bearman showed on old hard tyres in his first race that the Ferrari had plenty more, he had no problems in keeping Mercedes and McLaren at bay who were both on fresh softs.

 

Yeah I think Charles was pretty clear post race in saying they didn't use the tyres to their full potential.

 

Oscar was within 1 sec of Hamilton for many laps without killing tyres too, it's an interesting one, I wish it played out as a clean race so we could see.... they are my two favorite drivers so happy to see both further up the road...

[Gambelli]

I think Aston Martin are a lot closer to McLaren than many realize.

So for Melbourne I'm going with:

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. McLaren/Aston Martin
5. Mercedes
6. RB
7. Alpine
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Kick Sauber

E. This isn't representative of total constructors points, simply race performance @ Melbourne.

 

There's a couple of slow corners that could really hurt McLaren, and only really the fast chicane as a fast corner, lots of medium speed, so I'm not sure that McLaren wont be the 5th quickest team in Melb, albeit in a tight fight with Alonso and Mercedes...

 

Would be great if Aston Martin could enter a second car at some point too.....