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Guess the Pole 2024: Bahrain


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 21 February 2024 - 23:51

Welcome to the 2024 Guess the Pole season!
No major regulation upsets presumably means that pole laps will overall be comparable to last year, but faster.

As usual, the season opener is scored as a modified layout, with doubled time spans.

China and Emilia-Romagna will be scored as modified circuits too based on not having been run last year.
If you know of any circuits having been modified since last year, please notify me as I am clueless about these things!

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500
The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:
Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2023 final standings

Five latest poles at Bahrain:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2023  Verstappen    89.708
2022  Leclerc       90.558
2021  Verstappen    88.997
2020  Hamilton      87.264
2019  Leclerc       87.866

Late 2023 front rows:
GP   Pole  #2  
USA  Lecl Norr
MEX  Lecl Sain
BRA  Vers Lecl
LVE  Lecl Vers
ABU  Vers Lecl

Driver values:
Dri  val
Lecl   3
Vers   6
Norr  13
Sain  13
REST  18

2023 data:
                  Time    2022 PP  2021 PP  2020 PP  2023/2022  2023/2021  2023/2020
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH                    0   89.708   90.558   88.997                                
SAU                    0   88.265   88.200   87.511                                
OZ                     0   76.732   77.868   ------                          ------
JPN                    0   88.877   89.304   ------                          ------
CHN                    0   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
MIA                    0   86.841   88.796   ------                          ------
EMI                    0   ------   87.999   74.411    ------                      
MON                    0   71.365   71.376   70.346                                
CAN                    0   85.858   81.399   ------                          ------
ESP                    0   72.272   78.750   76.741                                
AUT                    0   64.391   64.984   63.720                                
GB                     0   86.720  100.983   86.134                                
HUN                    0   76.609   77.377   75.419                                
BEL                    0  106.988  104.297  119.765                                
NED                    0   70.567   70.342   68.885                                
ITA                    0   80.294   80.161   79.651                                
AZE                    0  100.203  101.359  101.218                                
SIN                    0   90.984  109.412   ------                          ------
USA                    0   94.723   94.356   92.910                                
MEX                    0   77.166   77.775   75.875                                
BRA                    0   70.727   71.674   68.372                                
LVE                    0   92.726   ------   ------               ------     ------
QAT                    0   83.778   ------   80.827               ------           
ABU                    0   83.445   83.824   82.109                                

2023 data:
                  Time    2022 PP  2021 PP  2020 PP  2023/2022  2023/2021  2023/2020
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH  Vers  Pere   89.708   90.558   88.997   87.264    99.061    100.799    102.801
SAU  Pere  Alon   88.265   88.200   87.511   ------   100.074    100.862     ------
OZ   Vers  Russ   76.732   77.868   ------   ------    98.541     ------     ------
AZE  Lecl  Vers  100.203  101.359  101.218   ------    98.859     98.997     ------
MIA  Pere  Alon   86.841   88.796   ------   ------    97.798     ------     ------
EMI  ----  ----   ------   87.999   74.411   73.609    ------     ------     ------
MON  Vers  Alon   71.365   71.376   70.346   ------    99.985    101.449     ------
ESP  Vers  Sain   72.272   78.750   76.741   75.584    91.774     94.177     95.618
CAN  Vers  Hülk   85.858   81.399   ------   ------   105.478     ------     ------
AUT  Vers  Lecl   64.391   64.984   63.720   62.939    99.087    101.053    102.307
GB   Vers  Norr   86.720  100.983   86.134   84.303    85.876    100.680    102.867
HUN  Hami  Vers   76.609   77.377   75.419   73.447    99.007    101.578    104.305
BEL  Lecl  Pere  106.988  104.297  119.765  101.252   102.580     89.332    105.665
NED  Vers  Norr   70.567   70.342   68.885   ------   100.320    102.442     ------
ITA  Sain  Vers   80.294   80.161   79.651   78.887   100.166    100.807    101.784
SIN  Sain  Russ   90.984  109.412   ------   ------    83.157     ------     ------
JPN  Vers  Pias   88.877   89.304   ------   ------    99.522     ------     ------
QAT  Vers  Russ   83.778   ------   80.827   ------    ------    103.651     ------
USA  Lecl  Norr   94.723   94.356   92.910   ------   100.389    101.951     ------
MEX  Lecl  Sain   77.166   77.775   75.875   ------    99.217    101.701     ------
BRA  Vers  Lecl   70.727   71.674   68.372   ------    98.679    103.444     ------
LVE  Lecl  Vers   92.726   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ABU  Vers  Lecl   83.445   83.824   82.109   95.246    99.548    101.627     87.610                            
My guess for Bahrain is 89.105 s by Max Verstappen.

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#2 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 23 February 2024 - 04:18

89.111 - Verstappen



#3 GTA

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Posted 25 February 2024 - 01:36

88.950 max


Edited by GTA, 28 February 2024 - 20:55.


#4 mark f1

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Posted 25 February 2024 - 08:11

Verstappen 88.975



#5 LB

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 00:13

Verstappen 89.323



#6 scheivlak

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:14

Verstappen 89.007



#7 rodlamas

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 13:29

Charles Leclerc 88.888

#8 Benchulo

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 13:59

Leclerc 89.000

#9 Anderis

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 18:38

Verstappen 89.200



#10 brunopascal

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 22:37

Verstappen 89.250



#11 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 28 February 2024 - 18:32

89.235 Max Verstappen

#12 jimjimjeroo

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Posted 28 February 2024 - 22:01

Alonso 89.443

#13 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 00:28

88.777 M Verstappen



#14 Nathan

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 00:30

88.770 Verstappen



#15 tourister46a

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 01:12

88.989 Verstappen


Edited by tourister46a, 29 February 2024 - 02:49.


#16 alekracing

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 03:09

88.639 Verstappen



#17 M2000-5

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 07:09

88.989 Verstappen



#18 milestone 11

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 09:52

Thanks for hosting this game again Makarias.

#19 milestone 11

milestone 11
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Posted 29 February 2024 - 09:53

88.993 Verstappen

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#20 Bleu

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Posted 29 February 2024 - 10:22

89,259 Verstappen