We hear a lot about natural talent, but it's difficult to gauge talent levels, for various reasons. E.g. how many people get the opportunity to even aim for F1? How meritocratic is the process? Etc.
Firstly we need a scale, and I think it makes sense to use percentiles. So someone born with a talent of 50 would be the median in the population. Half of people are born with more talent, and half with less. 99 means someone is more talented than 99% of the population. And so on. So do you think that F1 drivers are all 99.99+, or maybe in general much lower?
I think a few things are worth noting. Relatively very few people get the chance at motorsports, and even amongst those that do, it's not all or nothing. Many people will have the opportunity of some karting experience but not have the funds to do very much and it will be much harder for them to get to the next level up etc.
Lots of sons of F1 drivers have made it to F1. Obviously with natural talent it makes senses for this to be genetic, but sons of previous competitors are much more prevalent in F1 than in other sports proportionally. This suggests a relatively closed shop, meaning that talent levels might overall be lower than in other sports.
Among those that make it to the top, it's still not necessarily all about natural talent from then on. The training and preparation a driver receives in their formative years is likely to inform their later driving levels. I don't think it's probably a complete coincidence that the two most successful current drivers (Hamilton, Verstappen) are also the two with the fathers best known for helping their careers. Verstappen in particular is likely the best-prepared person ever to have attempted single-seater motor racing. It would also be quite a coincidence if he also happened to be the most talented, or in the top handful even.
Ayrton Senna had this anecdote where he was in a kart race in the wet and he was awful. But then next time it rained he went out on the track and practised until he could drive in the wet Great story, but most karters would not have that level of access to just go out and do that.
Having said all that, I don't think it's the case that Jos Verstappen could have picked out just any young child and trained them to be a top F1 driver. But I do think a decent proportion probably could have at least made it to F1 even if they could not have become the best.
It's difficult to pick out numbers, but I don't think someone has to be a 90 just to make F1 if they have the right opportunities. But if they are a 90, and they get everything, then I think they could be pretty good. If they are a 99, they could be world class. So that's why I don't think the likes of Verstappen, Hamilton and Alonso necessarily need to be higher than 99 to be at the levels they have reached, though of course they might be higher, or even a bit lower. The most talented F1 driver might in any case be a less successful one, but one whose preparation in their formative years wasn't as good.
At the other end, someone who had great preparation, but only made it to be a low-level F1 driver might even be a 50 to 60. Perhaps a Mick Schumacher but maybe his preparation was curtailed too much with his father's accident?
What do you think?
Edited by PlatenGlass, 22 February 2024 - 16:56.