80 replies to this topic

[JHSingo]

As you're all be aware, this weekend marks the start of the new Formula One season. 

 

But, on the basis of pre-season testing, the hope for a more competitive season (or, at least, one not won by Max Verstappen) appears pretty slim. All analysis points to Red Bull being once again the fastest team (yay  ), with their advantage reportedly being as healthy as 0.3-0.5 seconds, to as scary and frankly ridiculous as a one second margin. The wise old oracle of the F1 paddock, Fernando Alonso, has already claimed that 19 drivers know they're not going to be champion this year. Gee, I wonder who it could possibly be?! 

 

It therefore seems very likely that we'll be hearing plenty more of this, this year...

 

(Hey, it has started to grow on me a little...anyone else?)

 

So, my question to you is simple: just how many races do you think Max Verstappen will win this year?

 

And also, on a slightly more serious point, if we do get to December and Max has won 20 or more races, how do you think FIA/Liberty Media will respond? A lot of fans were already bored by Max's dominance last year, and if we have a repeat (or an even more dominant season in 2024), it's not going to do the sport any good. 

 

Over the years we've seen the FIA step in to try and curb periods of dominance (not always successfully, it has to be said), and surely it will be in F1's best interests for them to find a way to slow Red Bull down going into 2025?

 

Disclaimer: In the small eventuality that someone other than Max Verstappen wins or is fastest this weekend (not counting Sergio Perez, of course), you can consider this thread the reason why, and thank me in any way you choose later. 

[IrvTheSwerve]

I’m going for 20.

[Heyli]

As you're all be aware, this weekend marks the start of the new Formula One season. 

 

But, on the basis of pre-season testing, the hope for a more competitive season (or, at least, one not won by Max Verstappen) appears pretty slim. All analysis points to Red Bull being once again the fastest team (yay  ), with their advantage reportedly being as healthy as 0.3-0.5 seconds, to as scary and frankly ridiculous as a one second margin. The wise old oracle of the F1 paddock, Fernando Alonso, has already claimed that 19 drivers know they're not going to be champion this year. Gee, I wonder who it could possibly be?! 

 

It therefore seems very likely that we'll be hearing plenty more of this, this year...

 

(Hey, it has started to grow on me a little...anyone else?)

 

So, my question to you is simple: just how many races do you think Max Verstappen will win this year?

 

And also, on a slightly more serious point, if we do get to December and Max has won 20 or more races, how do you think FIA/Liberty Media will respond? A lot of fans were already bored by Max's dominance last year, and if we have a repeat (or an even more dominant season in 2024), it's not going to do the sport any good. 

 

Over the years we've seen the FIA step in to try and curb periods of dominance (not always successfully, it has to be said), and surely it will be in F1's best interests for them to find a way to slow Red Bull down going into 2025?

 

Disclaimer: In the small eventuality that someone other than Max Verstappen wins or is fastest this weekend (not counting Sergio Perez, of course), you can consider this thread the reason why, and thank me in any way you choose later. 

I dont think they'll respond with much tbh. 2026 is right arround the corner when this season is over. Not sure they'll get through a big rule change for next season?

 

Then again, that is what they somehow turned out to have succesfully done for 2021, although I think it was more by accident. 

[Gareth]

(Hey, it has started to grow on me a little...anyone else?)

Sounds like "Oh Little Town of Bethlehem" to me, so reminds me of childhood nativity plays which is nice in a nostalgia kind of way.

 

So, my question to you is simple: just how many races do you think Max Verstappen will win this year?

Went for 11 to 20. Would be amazed if it was 10 or less. Would be less amazed if he dropped 3 races or fewer to reliability, random SC's, occasional team mate actual good weekend - but that would still surprise me. I think actual number ends up something like 19 or 20.

 

And also, on a slightly more serious point, if we do get to December and Max has won 20 or more races, how do you think FIA/Liberty Media will respond? A lot of fans were already bored by Max's dominance last year, and if we have a repeat (or an even more dominant season in 2024), it's not going to do the sport any good.

We've got a regs overhaul on the horizon already, what more can they do?

 

It does amaze me that the current rule set (in particular budget caps and wind tunnel time limits) seem to be having the effect of squashing the field closer together, save for one team. Not sure what more the sport can do though to counter that, they've put the measures in place that should prevent it, they're working for 90% of the grid, what more can they do?

[Ruusperi]

I'm going to say 23. In Abu Dhabi he will purposefully drop to second in the last lap just to annoy people with OCD.

[MissingApex]

He could overtake Lewis’ number of race wins in 2026, just let that sink in.

[Taxi]

I'm going somewhere around 8-13. Wich seems "low" compared to last year and yet 8 wins are more than Sainz, Leclerc, Perez and Ricciardo got in all their careers. It's not possible to win 19 races again even with the best car. Nevertheless he is still my favourit to win the WDC. 

[krapmeister]

Too many...

[pdac]

I figured around 20, but that pushed me into the 21-23 category, which I've not totally convinced myself of yet. I think it's more about him losing races than someone else winning.

Edited by pdac, 26 February 2024 - 11:23.

[JHSingo]

It's not possible to win 19 races again even with the best car. 

 

I admire your optimism, even if I don't share it. 

 

We've got a regs overhaul on the horizon already, what more can they do?

 

It does amaze me that the current rule set (in particular budget caps and wind tunnel time limits) seem to be having the effect of squashing the field closer together, save for one team. Not sure what more the sport can do though to counter that, they've put the measures in place that should prevent it, they're working for 90% of the grid, what more can they do?

 

That's a good question - and as someone who freely admits to knowing very little about the technical side of these cars, I don't honestly know. But I remember after 2020, it was only a relatively minor tweak to the regs that ensured 2021 was a much closer fight. 

 

It may be a bit premature to say, but I'm not sure F1 can really afford to wait to 2026, and face another two years of utter dominance. Those newer fans who started following the sport in the last few years are far less likely to stick around very long whilst waiting to see something different. Lewis to Ferrari is an interesting story, but it won't really change a huge amount if Verstappen remains dominant. 

 

As you say, it is unfortunate that whilst the majority of the grid are so close, there remains one team way out in front. 

[JimmyClark]

18 again.

[P123]

11-20 seems a wide enough range to be correct with. 

 

I don't think he will win as many as last season, purely under the guise of unreliability/ bad luck hitting him at some stage, and Sergio maybe nicking an additional win or two, should he not vanish for half the races again.  An on form Sergio could actually be a negative, should he churn out the second places that he failed to do last season.

[DW46]

I reckon maybe about 15 - if he hits 20 I half expect a “radical safety related regs change” to keep the sports followers interest piqued ala 2005, 2021.

[Burtros]

11 - 20

A more interesting question is at what round will he seal the title?

[ConsiderAndGo]

Over 20 would be my guess.

Title at Azerbaijan

Edited by ConsiderAndGo, 26 February 2024 - 12:28.

[LolaB0860]

23

And he's 3rd in the remaining GP after starting 11th due to engine change

Edited by LolaB0860, 26 February 2024 - 12:41.

[JimmyClark]

Over 20 would be my guess.

Title at Azerbaijan

 

Ooh that would be nice; I just booked my tickets for that race last week.

 

However i think with the points system as it is and relaibility, I don't think it will be won that early, even if he wins all but 1-2 races by then. 

[Red5ive]

Most of them so 21-23 i imagine 

 

Yawn.

[Ali623]

Well judging from suggestions from testing, Perez doesn't look like he'll even provide a 'challenge' early season and with the car looking like it could be at least as strong as last year relative to the opposition, he's probably going to win quite a lot. Maybe someone like Ferrari or Mercedes catch-up enough by mid-season to challenge for a few wins, or maybe they'll slip up a couple of times this year. But I would be surprised if he lost more than 5 races to be honest.

[KavB]

I think he will win all 24 races if Red Bull have a similar advantage to last year. 

 

I don't see Perez proving to be any challenge even at the odd race, and I can't see Red Bull having another poor weekend like Singapore. Only reliability will stop him. At the very least he will win 20 races. 

 

It's crazy he that he can possibly reach and maybe beat Schumacher's tally of wins within 2 seasons.

[smr]

Definitely won't win as many as last year. I think he'll win around 10-15. He was very lucky with DNFs last year as well as having a dominant car. I don't think this year's car will be as dominant and I don't expect he'll finish as many races.

[JimmyClark]

Definitely won't win as many as last year. I think he'll win around 10-15. He was very lucky with DNFs last year as well as having a dominant car. I don't think this year's car will be as dominant and I don't expect he'll finish as many races.

 

Cars are just ever more bullet proof now - Hamilton didn't have a mechanical retirement between Austria 2018 and Abu Dhabi 2022, which was over 4 years. I can't see why Red Bull are 'due' a failure on Verstappen's car; one certainly can't rely on that. Especially as much of the time it is being driven within its limits, therefore less stress on the components. 

[PlatenGlass]

I think it will be hard to win as many as last year regardless. There were a few races that he could easily have not won but he did anyway, so I'd say he won more than the "expected" number in 2023.

[Countersteer]

He will probably have as many wins as Schumacher by the end of 2025.

[Ferrim]

I voted 11-20 because 2023 was so exceedingly good, and on top of an already excellent 2022, that there has to be some mean reversion. But if the brackets had been 11-17 and 18-23, I would have gone for the latter - which is still crazy.

[Mark521]

I voted 11-20 because 2023 was so exceedingly good, and on top of an already excellent 2022, that there has to be some mean reversion. But if the brackets had been 11-17 and 18-23, I would have gone for the latter - which is still crazy.

 

I agree with the above 

[Coral]

I think he'll win all 24. Easily.

 

Perez will not have a good season but he will still finish second in the WDC, such is the Red Bull's dominance.

 

The other drivers will be left fighting for the scraps.  

[ForzaGTR]

Gonna be near Hamilton territory by the end of next season. I reckon at least 40 wins over the best two seasons.

[TheFish]

Red Bull was so far ahead last year that they were very very rarely even pushed. I haven’t followed testing, I assume more of the same is expected this year. Max obviously a great, Perez a journeyman in his last year of Red Bull and maybe F1, it’s possible he wins all 24 I guess? When was his last DNF, early 2022?

I guess the main hope would be for a race like Vegas only this time Ferrari don’t drop the ball or they get lucky (I can’t quite remember why Leclerc didn’t win that race) or maybe Singapore eludes them again.

Either way, doesn’t feel like we’re set for a great season, unless you’re a Max/Red Bull fan.

[HuddersfieldTerrier1986]

Ignoring sprints, 15 or less. I reckon less

 

Apart from the fact that one driver can't dominate that much 2 years in a row, he had bulletproof reliability with basically no crashes last season and that won't happen this year. Be it taken out in a crash, making a mistake, bad luck with a safety car or red flag, wrong tyre choice in mixed conditions, or some actual reliability issues, I just don't see him winning as many as last year.

[TomNokoe]

Lol I was thinking about starting a similar thread - Will Verstappen Win Every Race?

I really don't know. There were times last year he was winning races with probably half a second, maybe more, in his pocket. But then there were many races that were reasonably close (Canada, Mexico, Austin, Brazil). I keep flip-flopping in my mind.

I have posted this before but there is a small part of me that hopes he will do it. I think this is probably his best chance because the domination cannot last forever, the grid surely has to close up in '25 before the big reset in '26. It would be both a great spectacle and tremendous failure of Liberty's "sports entertainment" ethos.

The last season and a half has prepared me for what might lie ahead. I wouldn't be too upset or disgruntled should it happen, I can entertain myself elsewhere down the grid.

However, my honest answer is that I suspect he'll win between 15-17. I'm expecting maybe a 2004-esque season where the challengers come good in the second half.

[mwf1]

24, he is driving a rocket ship and everyone else is miles behind

[Primo]

Not so many,  maybe 4-5. This is Perez' year!

[MKSixer]

I'm going with 8.  I hope there are a few big surprises when the cars are driven in anger.

[Primo]

More seriously - 2023 will probably never be repeated. There are three, maybe four, teams that will have learned a lot last year and when we consider how close things actually was last year in qualifying, I am fairly certain there will be at least one other team in each GP that will get their car competitive.

[PitViperRacing]

I think 15-18 races or somewhere in that vicinity.

[Gambelli]

...I voted 21-23 but I have a feeling someone, and I'm hoping Ferrari, will come at them pretty hard in the back end of the year.....

 

It just feels way too obvious at the moment that RedBull will dominate....

[CoolBreeze]

I'll give it 5 races. If within 5 races it's status quo from last year, i'll see you all perhaps next year

[sportyskells]

Do not forgot he overdue a do not finish in this thing I say just 10

[Sparky68]

I think anything above 15 will be a good season and good for the bonus. Car is great but you still have to get out there and win the races and anything could happen.

[Mat13]

11-20- if it’s more than 15 then we had better hope to god that Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari have their act together and make the races behind 1st place entertaining. Last year was bad enough.

[Beri]

If he hits the mark of 16 wins, which is likely in his and Red Bulls form that they portrayed last season, then he will be at 70 Grand Prix wins. Whilst he was at 10 wins when the 2021 season commenced. He still needs to do this, but should it happen then let that sink in a bit how dominant he has been. Even with the title fight during that 2021 season.

[Ellios]

I'm hoping less than 20, Max already said the car is fast and he's wearing a huge smile. Together they will dominate the win column all season. 

[Boxerevo]

21

[JimmyClark]

I'll give it 5 races. If within 5 races it's status quo from last year, i'll see you all perhaps next year

 

He actually only needs to win the first four races to set a new record for consecutive victories (11, from his own 10 set last year).

Edited by JimmyClark, 27 February 2024 - 12:08.

[MJB5990]

24 races is a huge number. 

 

He'll start lower than 15th at least once, whether that's a qualy incident, a grid drop for engine penalties or whatever.

Red Bull have to have one bad weekend somewhere where the set up or car fails at some point.

Maybe he slides off in the wet somewhere, very unlikely I appreciate.

Someone like Leclerc or Russell is just going to punt him off surely at a T1 or somewhere when they've lucked into track position. 

 

Obviously it depends a lot of how big the advantage actually is. I do have some faith (misplaced maybe) that Ferrari, McLaren or Mercedes will get close to him at least one weekend during the year where they grab their chance.

[Sparky68]

24 races is a huge number. 

 

He'll start lower than 15th at least once, whether that's a qualy incident, a grid drop for engine penalties or whatever.

Red Bull have to have one bad weekend somewhere where the set up or car fails at some point.

Maybe he slides off in the wet somewhere, very unlikely I appreciate.

Someone like Leclerc or Russell is just going to punt him off surely at a T1 or somewhere when they've lucked into track position. 

 

Obviously it depends a lot of how big the advantage actually is. I do have some faith (misplaced maybe) that Ferrari, McLaren or Mercedes will get close to him at least one weekend during the year where they grab their chance.

To be fair all of the above could have happened last year but , here we are.

[Henri Greuter]

Ever since I predicted 13 out of 16 for Senna in 1994 and as of why that prediction couldn't come off I did not make any similar predictions like that anymore for anyone, likng him yes or no.

[Myrvold]

The answer is going to be: "Too many".

[MJB5990]

To be fair all of the above could have happened last year but , here we are.

 

And two did. He had an issue in Saudi where he started at the back and the Red Bull was just off the pace in Singapore. 

 

That's kinda my point. Max can't win all 24, there's too many other factors that surely have to get involved at least once.