The standings after Bahrain:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Everyone 101 101
Same Bahrain result as last year! Incredible.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2023, which was initially a 23 race season.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Vers 600 488 336 + 73 Lecl 341 273 225 - 20 Pere 307 240 86 - 38 Sain 318 220 135 - 19 Hami 247 212 180 - 41 Norr 301 208 160 +133 Russ 265 192 156 - 38 Pias 248 161 100 +118 Alon 236 143 49 + 6 Ricc 107 58 12 + 58 Stro 125 55 3 - 6 Tsun 71 40 12 + 27 Gasl 65 35 8 - 28 Ocon 65 32 7 - 48 Albo 56 26 2 + 14 Bott 30 14 3 - 29 Zhou 20 8 2 - 9 Hülk 15 6 0 - 16 Laws 45 5 0 + 5 Magn 19 4 0 - 21 Sarg 15 4 1 + 1 Vest 5 0 0 +- 0 Schu 2 0 0 +- 0
The Popularity Poll numbers above are rounded off to integers to make the sum 2424, which worked out fine this season by choosing to round off Albon's actual 26.5 points downwards.
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff RBR 728 + 35 Ferr 493 - 39 Merc 404 - 79 McLa 369 +251 Asto 198 +- 0 RB 98 + 64 Alpi 67 - 76 Will 31 + 16 Saub 22 - 38 Haas 10 - 37
These sums are based on the starting drivers for each team. Liam Lawson got two pretty big guesses, but I'm not sure where I'd allocate them.
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) LB 2353 2) scheivlak 2335 3) DutchQuicksilver 2315 4) GTA 2297 5) Makarias 2288 6) mark f1 2287 7) sladealonso 2284 8) Brawn BGP 001 2283 9) KWSN-DSM 2277 10) SpaceHorseParty 2263 11) Anderis 2259 12) Bleu 2252 13) M2000-5 2242 14) LolaB8060 2220 15) Costaz 2140 16) polesetter1 2127 17) Benchulo 2071 18) ANF 2068
This is the same top three on this list as last year but in different order. Should they form an alliance? Move in together? The final top three in last year's game were all in the bottom five of this list.
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Vers 17 Lecl 1
WE HAVE A TITLE FIGHT
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Albo 18 0 0 Sarg Alon 18 0 0 Stro Norr 18 0 0 Pias Vers 18 0 0 Pere Lecl 17 0 1 Sain Bott 16 1 1 Zhou Ricc 13 2 3 Tsun Hami 13 1 4 Russ Hülk 12 4 2 Magn Gasl 10 4 4 Ocon
The pecking order has switched at Haas and Alpine.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Pere 7,5 5,8 0 Sain 6,8 4,7 0 Russ 5,2 3,8 0 Vers 5,1 4,2 0 Lecl 4,4 3,5 0 Norr 3,9 2,6 0 Hami 2,8 2,4 0 Pias 2,5 1,6 0 Stro 1,8 0,8 0 Alon 1,4 0,8 0
Very exciting
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Perez Sainz Leclerc Russell M2000-5 600 * Potential 593 * Potential 590 * Potential 587 * Potential 585 * Forecast 600 * Forecast 432 * Forecast 360 Benchulo 341 polesetter1 265 * Potential 600 LolaB8060 307 polesetter1 318 Bleu 331 ANF 244 LolaB8060 590 Costaz 300 Bleu 265 GTA 315 * Forecast 240 SpaceHorseParty 550 DutchQuicksilver280 GTA 260 ANF 292 Anderis 213 Makarias 535 mark f1 280 Anderis 231 sladealonso 290 Bleu 207 Anderis 525 KWSN-DSM 275 Benchulo 229 scheivlak 289 mark f1 200 DutchQuicksilver525 sladealonso 275 scheivlak 228 * Forecast 288 sladealonso 200 GTA 510 M2000-5 273 sladealonso 225 Brawn BGP 001 283 KWSN-DSM 190 LB 506 Anderis 265 mark f1 220 LB 279 SpaceHorseParty 190 sladealonso 502 Makarias 265 LB 218 Anderis 274 Benchulo 183 mark f1 494 Brawn BGP 001 254 Brawn BGP 001 215 mark f1 270 DutchQuicksilver183 scheivlak 466 SpaceHorseParty 250 LolaB8060 215 Costaz 265 LB 182 ANF 458 scheivlak 245 Makarias 212 KWSN-DSM 250 scheivlak 182 Costaz 454 LB 235 DutchQuicksilver207 DutchQuicksilver246 M2000-5 180 KWSN-DSM 450 Bleu 218 M2000-5 201 Makarias 246 Makarias 179 Brawn BGP 001 449 GTA 212 KWSN-DSM 200 polesetter1 245 LolaB8060 172 polesetter1 427 polesetter1 200 Costaz 191 SpaceHorseParty 243 Brawn BGP 001 167 Bleu 415 ANF 102 SpaceHorseParty 190 M2000-5 232 GTA 158 Benchulo 336 Benchulo 86 ANF 135 LolaB8060 225 Costaz 156 * Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10
M2000-5's dream is still alive!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Norris Hamilton Piastri Alonso Stroll * Potential 583 * Potential 581 * Potential 579 * Potential 577 * Potential 576 Costaz 301 polesetter1 247 Costaz 248 Benchulo 236 Benchulo 125 Brawn BGP 001 263 ANF 243 ANF 239 Makarias 185 KWSN-DSM 75 ANF 241 SpaceHorseParty 240 Brawn BGP 001 185 Anderis 175 Bleu 71 LB 220 mark f1 230 LB 174 Bleu 170 Anderis 70 Makarias 211 M2000-5 222 scheivlak 174 sladealonso 170 M2000-5 65 LolaB8060 210 Costaz 221 Benchulo 172 DutchQuicksilver156 DutchQuicksilver 62 Benchulo 209 Bleu 215 LolaB8060 170 Brawn BGP 001 153 GTA 62 GTA 205 sladealonso 215 polesetter1 163 KWSN-DSM 150 scheivlak 60 DutchQuicksilver201 Anderis 213 SpaceHorseParty 160 SpaceHorseParty 150 Makarias 59 scheivlak 200 DutchQuicksilver212 KWSN-DSM 150 LB 142 sladealonso 55 Bleu 195 Makarias 210 mark f1 150 scheivlak 142 LB 50 * Forecast 192 GTA 207 Bleu 148 GTA 135 mark f1 50 polesetter1 191 Benchulo 200 DutchQuicksilver138 polesetter1 132 SpaceHorseParty 50 mark f1 190 Brawn BGP 001 200 M2000-5 138 M2000-5 123 LolaB8060 46 SpaceHorseParty 190 KWSN-DSM 200 Makarias 136 LolaB8060 105 Brawn BGP 001 30 M2000-5 188 LolaB8060 188 GTA 131 mark f1 100 Costaz 27 KWSN-DSM 185 LB 180 Anderis 115 ANF 95 ANF 24 Anderis 180 scheivlak 180 sladealonso 100 Costaz 49 * Forecast 24 sladealonso 160 * Forecast 144 * Forecast 96 * Forecast 48 polesetter1 3 * Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 * Current 1
Very exciting.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Chinese GP.
Edited by Makarias, 03 March 2024 - 10:41.
