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Place The Points Competition 2024 after Bahrain


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 03 March 2024 - 10:39

The standings after Bahrain:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Everyone              101 101

Same Bahrain result as last year! Incredible.

The entries

The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2023, which was initially a 23 race season.

Name  Max  Pop  Min  Diff
Vers  600  488  336  + 73
Lecl  341  273  225  - 20
Pere  307  240   86  - 38
Sain  318  220  135  - 19
Hami  247  212  180  - 41
Norr  301  208  160  +133
Russ  265  192  156  - 38
Pias  248  161  100  +118
Alon  236  143   49  +  6
Ricc  107   58   12  + 58
Stro  125   55    3  -  6
Tsun   71   40   12  + 27
Gasl   65   35    8  - 28
Ocon   65   32    7  - 48
Albo   56   26    2  + 14
Bott   30   14    3  - 29
Zhou   20    8    2  -  9
Hülk   15    6    0  - 16
Laws   45    5    0  +  5
Magn   19    4    0  - 21
Sarg   15    4    1  +  1
Vest    5    0    0  +- 0
Schu    2    0    0  +- 0

The Popularity Poll numbers above are rounded off to integers to make the sum 2424, which worked out fine this season by choosing to round off Albon's actual 26.5 points downwards.

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:

Team   Pts  Diff
RBR    728  + 35
Ferr   493  - 39
Merc   404  - 79
McLa   369  +251
Asto   198  +- 0
RB      98  + 64
Alpi    67  - 76
Will    31  + 16
Saub    22  - 38
Haas    10  - 37

These sums are based on the starting drivers for each team. Liam Lawson got two pretty big guesses, but I'm not sure where I'd allocate them.

If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:

Pos Name              Tot
1)  LB               2353    
2)  scheivlak        2335    
3)  DutchQuicksilver 2315    
4)  GTA              2297    
5)  Makarias         2288    
6)  mark f1          2287    
7)  sladealonso      2284    
8)  Brawn BGP 001    2283    
9)  KWSN-DSM         2277    
10) SpaceHorseParty  2263    
11) Anderis          2259    
12) Bleu             2252    
13) M2000-5          2242    
14) LolaB8060        2220    
15) Costaz           2140    
16) polesetter1      2127    
17) Benchulo         2071    
18) ANF              2068    

This is the same top three on this list as last year but in different order. Should they form an alliance? Move in together? The final top three in last year's game were all in the bottom five of this list.

How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?

Driver  Players
Vers     17
Lecl      1

WE HAVE A TITLE FIGHT

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner               Owned
     <-     =    ->
Albo  18    0    0  Sarg
Alon  18    0    0  Stro
Norr  18    0    0  Pias
Vers  18    0    0  Pere
Lecl  17    0    1  Sain
Bott  16    1    1  Zhou
Ricc  13    2    3  Tsun
Hami  13    1    4  Russ
Hülk  12    4    2  Magn
Gasl  10    4    4  Ocon

The pecking order has switched at Haas and Alpine.
 
The Drivers' list

Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Pere      7,5      5,8    0
Sain      6,8      4,7    0
Russ      5,2      3,8    0
Vers      5,1      4,2    0
Lecl      4,4      3,5    0
Norr      3,9      2,6    0
Hami      2,8      2,4    0
Pias      2,5      1,6    0
Stro      1,8      0,8    0
Alon      1,4      0,8    0

Very exciting

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.

Guesses on P1-P5:

Verstappen             Perez                  Sainz                  Leclerc                Russell             
M2000-5         600    * Potential     593    * Potential     590    * Potential     587    * Potential     585
* Forecast      600    * Forecast      432    * Forecast      360    Benchulo        341    polesetter1     265
* Potential     600    LolaB8060       307    polesetter1     318    Bleu            331    ANF             244
LolaB8060       590    Costaz          300    Bleu            265    GTA             315    * Forecast      240
SpaceHorseParty 550    DutchQuicksilver280    GTA             260    ANF             292    Anderis         213
Makarias        535    mark f1         280    Anderis         231    sladealonso     290    Bleu            207
Anderis         525    KWSN-DSM        275    Benchulo        229    scheivlak       289    mark f1         200
DutchQuicksilver525    sladealonso     275    scheivlak       228    * Forecast      288    sladealonso     200
GTA             510    M2000-5         273    sladealonso     225    Brawn BGP 001   283    KWSN-DSM        190
LB              506    Anderis         265    mark f1         220    LB              279    SpaceHorseParty 190
sladealonso     502    Makarias        265    LB              218    Anderis         274    Benchulo        183
mark f1         494    Brawn BGP 001   254    Brawn BGP 001   215    mark f1         270    DutchQuicksilver183
scheivlak       466    SpaceHorseParty 250    LolaB8060       215    Costaz          265    LB              182
ANF             458    scheivlak       245    Makarias        212    KWSN-DSM        250    scheivlak       182
Costaz          454    LB              235    DutchQuicksilver207    DutchQuicksilver246    M2000-5         180
KWSN-DSM        450    Bleu            218    M2000-5         201    Makarias        246    Makarias        179
Brawn BGP 001   449    GTA             212    KWSN-DSM        200    polesetter1     245    LolaB8060       172
polesetter1     427    polesetter1     200    Costaz          191    SpaceHorseParty 243    Brawn BGP 001   167
Bleu            415    ANF             102    SpaceHorseParty 190    M2000-5         232    GTA             158
Benchulo        336    Benchulo         86    ANF             135    LolaB8060       225    Costaz          156
* Current        25    * Current        18    * Current        15    * Current        12    * Current        10

M2000-5's dream is still alive!

Guesses on P6-P10:

Norris                 Hamilton               Piastri                Alonso                 Stroll              
* Potential     583    * Potential     581    * Potential     579    * Potential     577    * Potential     576
Costaz          301    polesetter1     247    Costaz          248    Benchulo        236    Benchulo        125
Brawn BGP 001   263    ANF             243    ANF             239    Makarias        185    KWSN-DSM         75
ANF             241    SpaceHorseParty 240    Brawn BGP 001   185    Anderis         175    Bleu             71
LB              220    mark f1         230    LB              174    Bleu            170    Anderis          70
Makarias        211    M2000-5         222    scheivlak       174    sladealonso     170    M2000-5          65
LolaB8060       210    Costaz          221    Benchulo        172    DutchQuicksilver156    DutchQuicksilver 62
Benchulo        209    Bleu            215    LolaB8060       170    Brawn BGP 001   153    GTA              62
GTA             205    sladealonso     215    polesetter1     163    KWSN-DSM        150    scheivlak        60
DutchQuicksilver201    Anderis         213    SpaceHorseParty 160    SpaceHorseParty 150    Makarias         59
scheivlak       200    DutchQuicksilver212    KWSN-DSM        150    LB              142    sladealonso      55
Bleu            195    Makarias        210    mark f1         150    scheivlak       142    LB               50
* Forecast      192    GTA             207    Bleu            148    GTA             135    mark f1          50
polesetter1     191    Benchulo        200    DutchQuicksilver138    polesetter1     132    SpaceHorseParty  50
mark f1         190    Brawn BGP 001   200    M2000-5         138    M2000-5         123    LolaB8060        46
SpaceHorseParty 190    KWSN-DSM        200    Makarias        136    LolaB8060       105    Brawn BGP 001    30
M2000-5         188    LolaB8060       188    GTA             131    mark f1         100    Costaz           27
KWSN-DSM        185    LB              180    Anderis         115    ANF              95    ANF              24
Anderis         180    scheivlak       180    sladealonso     100    Costaz           49    * Forecast       24
sladealonso     160    * Forecast      144    * Forecast       96    * Forecast       48    polesetter1       3
* Current         8    * Current         6    * Current         4    * Current         2    * Current         1

Very exciting.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Chinese GP.


Edited by Makarias, 03 March 2024 - 10:41.


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#2 LolaB0860

LolaB0860
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Posted 04 March 2024 - 17:54

Wow I got 101 points, that's A for effort, what a round  :smoking:

 

No seriously, thank you for all the stats!  :cool: