70 replies to this topic

[Clrnc]

How is Piastri unable to set a representative laptime? LOL

[SenorSjon]

Another thing I have to be sure of is that drivers are driving to their maximum ability and not just coasting through the qualifying sessions like we tend to see with the top teams until they reach Q3.

Perez 1.17.611 Q1
Verstappen 1.16.171 Q3

That gap is 1.440, not what you wrote. Iirc, you have counted Q2 vs Q3 times on other occasions.

Piastri had multiple runs, ample time, no technical difficulties and just failed to reach Q2.

Edited by SenorSjon, 27 October 2024 - 12:13.

[RaceBoyer]

Wow, I am sorry but all laps that are completed at racing speeds are representative or otherwise too much bias and subjectivity comes into it.

 

If a driver could have gone faster but had a late lap prevented by yellow flags for example, their earlier time in the session is still representative as it shows the importance of putting in strong banker laps early on in the session so that you aren't exposed to any bad luck that could occur late in the session due to yellow flags or getting held up by another car etc.

[tyker]

I can't remember the premise with which I first wrote about drivers coasting through qualifying sessions it was wrote several years ago and qualifying has changed a bit in as much you no longer start the race on your Q2 qualifying tyres where the top drivers would look to qualify on harder tyres, however I always default times set in later sessions being on a quicker track so can't be used against times set earlier on in sessions if they are quicker times.

 

In respect to Piastri his first run was on the slower medium tyres, the second run on the soft tyres were he ended up off the track having made a mistake, I believe he lost a second I've not been able to watch it again, his final lap on the same soft tyres was slow because the tyres were still to hot from his previous run, I'm wanting drivers to have set some kind of competitive lap.

Perez 1.17.611 Q1
Verstappen 1.16.171 Q3

That gap is 1.440, not what you wrote. Iirc, you have counted Q2 vs Q3 times on other occasions.

Piastri had multiple runs, ample time, no technical difficulties and just failed to reach Q2.

Quote

Another thing I have to be sure of is that drivers are driving to their maximum ability and not just coasting through the qualifying sessions like we tend to see with the top teams until they reach Q3.

Edited by tyker, 27 October 2024 - 15:11.

[tyker]

Wow, I am sorry but all laps that are completed at racing speeds are representative or otherwise too much bias and subjectivity comes into it.

 

If a driver could have gone faster but had a late lap prevented by yellow flags for example, their earlier time in the session is still representative as it shows the importance of putting in strong banker laps early on in the session so that you aren't exposed to any bad luck that could occur late in the session due to yellow flags or getting held up by another car etc.

That comes under fair chance otherwise we just introduce luck into the comparisons.

[tyker]

Imo if you don't count Piastri you must take out Perez as well.

What happened to Perez that I should consider?

[tyker]

After Las Vegas (Las Vegas Difference)

 

01. Verstappen 0.48s (0.856s)

02. Bottas 0.42s (-0.341s)

03. Tsunoda 0.29s (0.998s)

04. Alonso 0.19s (0.225s)

05. Norris 0.153s (0.016s)

06. Russell 0.152s (0.255s)

07. Hulkenberg 0.14s (0.183s)

08. Gasly 0.08s (0.342s)

09. Colapinto 0.024s (0.679s)

10. Leclerc 0.021s (-0.373s)

[Alfisti]

Feels like Norris and hulk have more margin than what shows there tbh.

[tyker]

After Qatar (Qatar Difference)

 

01. Verstappen 0.5s (0.905s)

02. Bottas 0.39s (-0.28s)

03. Tsunoda 0.23s (0.047s)

04. Alonso 0.21s (0.703s)

05. Russell 0.17s (0.436s)

06. Norris 0.15s (0.057s)

07. Gasly 0.12s (0.871s)

08. Hulkenberg 0.1s (-0.551s)

09. Leclerc 0.03s (0.189s)

10. Albon 0.01s (0.202s)

[tyker]

Final Standings (Abu Dhabi Difference) Head to Head

 

01. Verstappen 0.5s (0.319s) 20-1

02. Bottas 0.39s (0.399s) 17-2

03. Alonso 0.22s (0.456s) 18-4

04. Tsunoda 0.19s (0.053s) 4-1

05. Russell 0.17s (-)* 16-4

06. Norris 0.15s (0.219s) 18-3

07. Hulkenberg 0.13s (0.592s) 13-5

08. Gasly 0.12s (-) 11-8

09. Albon 0.02s (0.091s) 6-2

10. Leclerc 0.01s (-0.317s) 12-9

 

*Hamilton got bollarded.

 

Albon > Sargeant 0.29s (12-0)

Tsunoda > Ricciardo 0.19s (11-4)

[Anderis]

So except for Ferrari and Alpine, each other team basically had one driver dominating the qualifying battle this year. I think we usually got more closer pairings than that in the past?

[messy]

Sainz needs more credit. Every year, Leclerc feels like one of the fastest guys over one lap, every year you look at the end of season stats and think ‘****, Sainz outqualified him loads of times’.

Alpine is a funny one though. First five or six races was one way traffic in Ocon’s direction. Rest of the season after that was one-way traffic in Gasly’s direction. Was that when they swapped chassis too?

Edited by messy, 07 December 2024 - 22:45.

[KPower]

Sainz needs more credit. Every year, Leclerc feels like one of the fastest guys over one lap, every year you look at the end of season stats and think ‘****, Sainz outqualified him loads of times’.

Alpine is a funny one though. First five or six races was one way traffic in Ocon’s direction. Rest of the season after that was one-way traffic in Gasly’s direction. Was that when they swapped chassis too?

 

Similar to Hulk, Sainz should receive far more credit for his qualifying pace than he does. His qualifying gaps against Norris and Leclerc over the past 6 years should say enough.

 

People thinking he has "average" pace are sorely mistaken IMO.

[Sid04]

I feel qualy pace wise Tsunoda is also very under rated. He is Piastri level for me in terms of driver and definitely so in qualy trim. It's just that he hasn't got a benchmark who does not have asterisk.

[Button4life]

Similar to Hulk, Sainz should receive far more credit for his qualifying pace than he does. His qualifying gaps against Norris and Leclerc over the past 6 years should say enough.

People thinking he has "average" pace are sorely mistaken IMO.

The fact Sainz is quite good in qualifying makes it more impressive Norris beat him in qualifying in his first seasons.

[KPower]

The fact Sainz is quite good in qualifying makes it more impressive Norris beat him in qualifying in his first seasons.

 

Absolutely. Norris is an extremely quick and even more importantly, very consistent qualifier even from his rookie season. It's rare that he makes mistakes and doesn't have any "bogey" tracks that he just doesn't do well at.

[JimmyClark]

I'll just add the results for my different method of working this out, as I've done for the last couple of years. 
 
To remind of my rules: 
- The times from the last session both drivers were in are counted (so if one driver is eliminated in Q1 and the other gets to Q3, then its the Q1 times counted - this is to ensure similar track conditions). 
- The difference is weighted against the average pole time for the season (83.149s), thus a 0.5s gap at Austria is weighted more than a 0.5s gap at Spa, for example. This is to equalise gaps over the season. 
- The average is taken from a median across the season, with the three most extreme results either way disregarded (so of 24 weekends, the median 18 are counted - this is to eliminate outliers / subjective reasoning for disallowing times). For William and VCARB, I eliminated 4 and 2 either side of the driver change. 
- When one driver doesn't set a time in qualifying, that weekend is disregarded. 
 
Here's the outcome; and given the stability of the grid from 2023, we can compare the differences to last year too (2023 is in brackets, with the change calculated too).

• VER-PER: -0.511 (-0.555, -0.044)
• BOT-ZHO: -0.458 (-0.202, +0.256)
• ALO-STR: -0.314 (-0.435, -0.121)
• ALB-SAR: -0.309 (-0.527, -0.218)
• HUL-MAG: -0.209 (-0.235, -0.026)
• NOR-PIA: -0.170 (-0.210, -0.040)
• RUS-HAM: -0.168 (+0.020, +0.188)
• TSU-RIC: -0.150 (-0.024, +0.126)
• LEC-SAI: -0.025 (-0.055, -0.030)
• GAS-OCO: -0.016 (-0.034, -0.018)

Replacement drivers: 

• TSU-LAW: -0.127 (-0.347, -0.220)
• ALB-COL: -0.142

 

Comments: 

• Red Bull: The gap has remaining stable, which surprises me slightly given Checo seemed so much worse this year. He even closed up slightly, but insignificantly. 
• Sauber: Zhou seems to have regressed a lot, or Bottas was putting in great performances trying to find a new drive. 
• Aston Martin: Stroll has improved a bit since 2023, but Alonso is still clearly faster. 
• Williams: Sargeant actually improved quite a lot on 2023, but Colapinto is definitely a step up from him still. 
• Haas: The gap remained roughly the same as 2023, with Hulkenberg clearly in front by a couple of tenths. 
• McLaren: Norris' qualifying advantage has remained fairly consistent over Piastri, though Oscar has improved a little bit since 2023. 
• Mercedes: The only team where there was a change from faster qualifier 2023 to 2024, with Hamilton losing a couple of tenths over Russell this year. 
• VCARB: Tsunoda has improved a lot over Ricciardo, probably justifying the decision to drop him, but Lawson is closer to Tsunoda in his return, if still a little behind (but limited data here). 
• Ferrari: Again, very close between the two drivers despite Leclerc's qualifying reputation. Sainz could be a big loss to the team if Hamilton can't replicate this speed next year. 
• Alpine: Very close again, and impressive from Ocon if rumours of him not getting the updates are true. 

[messy]

I feel qualy pace wise Tsunoda is also very under rated. He is Piastri level for me in terms of driver and definitely so in qualy trim. It's just that he hasn't got a benchmark who does not have asterisk.

 

People still hold 2021 against him, because he really struggled against Gasly that year. Only outqualified him once or twice. 

 

2022 though, he very nearly matched him in the head to head and '23 and '24 has been on top of three different team-mates. 

[vlado]

This must be LECs worse season in terms of qualifying since he joined F1…

Never got on top of the SF24’s peculiar tire warm up for push laps and SAI did much better, which basically equalized the naturally occurring gap seen in the previous 3 seasons

[NotAPineapple]

Comments:

• Red Bull: The gap has remaining stable, which surprises me slightly given Checo seemed so much worse this year. He even closed up slightly, but insignificantly.

Probs because this year you'd be comparing a lot more Q1 and Q2 sessions where Max isnt pushing.

Edited by NotAPineapple, 13 December 2024 - 15:12.

[JimmyClark]

Probs because this year you'd be comparing a lot more Q1 and Q2 sessions where Max isnt pushing.

 

Good point.