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Guess the Pole 2024: China


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 07:16

CHINA RETURNS
Same track layout as before I think, but the race hasn't been used in the last four years so will be scored as a modified circuit ie doubled time spans.

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500
The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:
Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2024 standings

Five latest poles at China:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2019  Bottas        91.547
2018  Vettel        91.095
2017  Hamilton      91.678
2016  Rosberg       95.402
2015  Hamilton      95.782

Late 2023 front rows:
GP   Pole  #2  
ABU  Vers Lecl

Driver values:
Dri  val
Vers   3
Lecl   6
Pere  13
Sain  13
REST  18

2024 data:
                  Time    2023 PP  2022 PP  2021 PP  2024/2023  2024/2022  2024/2021
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH  Vers  Lecl   89.179   89.708   90.558   88.997    99.410     98.477    100.205
SAU  Vers  Lecl   87.472   88.265   88.200   87.511    99.102     99.175     99.955
OZ   Vers  Sain   75.915   76.732   77.868   ------    98.935     97.492     ------
JPN  Vers  Pere   88.197   88.877   89.304   ------    99.235     98.760     ------
CHN                    0   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
MIA                    0   86.841   88.796   ------                          ------
EMI                    0   ------   87.999   74.411    ------                      
MON                    0   71.365   71.376   70.346                                
CAN                    0   85.858   81.399   ------                          ------
ESP                    0   72.272   78.750   76.741                                
AUT                    0   64.391   64.984   63.720                                
GB                     0   86.720  100.983   86.134                                
HUN                    0   76.609   77.377   75.419                                
BEL                    0  106.988  104.297  119.765                                
NED                    0   70.567   70.342   68.885                                
ITA                    0   80.294   80.161   79.651                                
AZE                    0  100.203  101.359  101.218                                
SIN                    0   90.984  109.412   ------                          ------
USA                    0   94.723   94.356   92.910                                
MEX                    0   77.166   77.775   75.875                                
BRA                    0   70.727   71.674   68.372                                
LVE                    0   92.726   ------   ------               ------     ------
QAT                    0   83.778   ------   80.827               ------           
ABU                    0   83.445   83.824   82.109                                
My guess for China is 90.249 s by Max Verstappen. Maybe I'll change this later.

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#2 rodlamas

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Posted 07 April 2024 - 00:24

Max 90.889

#3 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 07 April 2024 - 08:26

89.711 - Verstappen



#4 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 16 April 2024 - 18:54

93.133 Max Verstappen

#5 Anderis

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Posted 16 April 2024 - 20:46

92.900 Verstappen



#6 scheivlak

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Posted 16 April 2024 - 20:54

Verstappen 91.812


Edited by scheivlak, 18 April 2024 - 21:25.


#7 GTA

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Posted 17 April 2024 - 04:12

94.889 Carlos



#8 brunopascal

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Posted 17 April 2024 - 08:02

Verstappen 88.500



#9 mark f1

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Posted 17 April 2024 - 13:38

Verstappen 93.311



#10 tourister46a

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 11:04

Verstappen 92.333


Edited by tourister46a, 19 April 2024 - 02:28.


#11 jimjimjeroo

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 14:40

92.996 max



#12 M2000-5

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 15:23

89.135 Verstappen



#13 Makarias

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 17:57

I'm changing my time guess to 92.449 s, still Verstappen.



#14 Bleu

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 18:44

92,942 Norris



#15 milestone 11

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Posted 18 April 2024 - 20:02

92.651 Verstappen.

#16 LB

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Posted 19 April 2024 - 00:02

lando 91.967

#17 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 19 April 2024 - 01:04

92.445 verstappen

Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 19 April 2024 - 01:04.


#18 alekracing

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Posted 19 April 2024 - 03:25

89.963 Verstappen