The standings after Qatar:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Costaz 2054 29 2) Brawn BGP 001 2046 44 3) Bleu 2033 76 4) ANF 2012 56 5) LB 1992 45 = scheivlak 1992 45 7) GTA 1970 71 8) mark f1 1949 45 9) Benchulo 1932 31 10) KWSN-DSM 1926 47 11) Anderis 1921 47 12) LolaB8060 1908 45 = polesetter1 1908 55 14) DutchQuicksilver 1898 45 15) sladealonso 1893 38 16) Makarias 1888 35 17) SpaceHorseParty 1860 35 18) M2000-5 1847 38Bleu catching up at devastating pace. HOW WILL THIS END?
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Bear INF,8 700,0 18 Cola INF,8 500,0 18 Hülk 509,7 200,0 18 Magn 345,2 70,0 17 Pias 164,4 106,0 18 Norr 150,6 103,6 18 Lecl 113,1 90,4 15 Russ 111,6 80,5 16 Sain 110,5 76,2 15 Gasl 97,9 51,5 9 Hami 90,9 77,8 3 Laws 81,8 8,7 15 Vers 79,4 64,6 1 Tsun 71,8 40,3 5 Ocon 71,0 34,8 3 Pere 57,1 44,5 2 Zhou 52,2 19,0 3 Alon 47,0 28,3 1 Albo 45,3 21,1 2 Stro 43,9 19,0 1 Ricc 12,1 6,5 0Zhou gets on the list!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Leclerc Piastri Russell Gasly M2000-5 600 Benchulo 341 * Potential 289 polesetter1 265 mark f1 65 LolaB8060 590 * Potential 334 * Forecast 275 ANF 244 * Potential 59 SpaceHorseParty 550 Bleu 331 * Current 264 * Potential 239 scheivlak 52 Makarias 535 * Forecast 322 Costaz 248 * Forecast 223 KWSN-DSM 50 Anderis 525 GTA 315 ANF 239 * Current 214 LolaB8060 45 DutchQuicksilver525 * Current 309 Brawn BGP 001 185 Anderis 213 ANF 43 GTA 510 ANF 292 LB 174 Bleu 207 LB 42 LB 506 sladealonso 290 scheivlak 174 mark f1 200 DutchQuicksilver 41 sladealonso 502 scheivlak 289 Benchulo 172 sladealonso 200 GTA 40 mark f1 494 Brawn BGP 001 283 LolaB8060 170 KWSN-DSM 190 Bleu 38 scheivlak 466 LB 279 polesetter1 163 SpaceHorseParty 190 * Forecast 35 ANF 458 Anderis 274 SpaceHorseParty 160 Benchulo 183 * Current 34 Costaz 454 mark f1 270 KWSN-DSM 150 DutchQuicksilver183 Brawn BGP 001 33 KWSN-DSM 450 Costaz 265 mark f1 150 LB 182 Benchulo 29 Brawn BGP 001 449 KWSN-DSM 250 Bleu 148 scheivlak 182 sladealonso 28 polesetter1 427 DutchQuicksilver246 DutchQuicksilver138 M2000-5 180 M2000-5 27 Bleu 415 Makarias 246 M2000-5 138 Makarias 179 Anderis 25 * Potential 413 polesetter1 245 Makarias 136 LolaB8060 172 Costaz 23 * Forecast 405 SpaceHorseParty 243 GTA 131 Brawn BGP 001 167 Makarias 21 * Current 388 M2000-5 232 Anderis 115 GTA 158 polesetter1 15 Benchulo 336 LolaB8060 225 sladealonso 100 Costaz 156 SpaceHorseParty 8Russell and Gasly both added several players to their beaten list.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz Alonso Zhou Magnussen Norris polesetter1 318 Benchulo 236 * Potential 29 * Potential 39 * Potential 338 * Potential 268 Makarias 185 KWSN-DSM 20 KWSN-DSM 19 * Forecast 327 Bleu 265 Anderis 175 polesetter1 20 * Forecast 15 * Current 313 GTA 260 Bleu 170 SpaceHorseParty 15 * Current 14 Costaz 301 * Forecast 254 sladealonso 170 Costaz 12 Anderis 6 Brawn BGP 001 263 * Current 243 DutchQuicksilver156 M2000-5 9 LB 6 ANF 241 Anderis 231 Brawn BGP 001 153 Anderis 8 scheivlak 6 LB 220 Benchulo 229 KWSN-DSM 150 Brawn BGP 001 8 Benchulo 5 Makarias 211 scheivlak 228 SpaceHorseParty 150 DutchQuicksilver 6 Bleu 5 LolaB8060 210 sladealonso 225 LB 142 GTA 6 Brawn BGP 001 5 Benchulo 209 mark f1 220 scheivlak 142 LolaB8060 5 mark f1 5 GTA 205 LB 218 GTA 135 Makarias 5 SpaceHorseParty 5 DutchQuicksilver201 Brawn BGP 001 215 polesetter1 132 mark f1 5 ANF 3 scheivlak 200 LolaB8060 215 M2000-5 123 Bleu 4 Costaz 2 Bleu 195 Makarias 212 LolaB8060 105 LB 4 LolaB8060 2 polesetter1 191 DutchQuicksilver207 mark f1 100 scheivlak 4 DutchQuicksilver 1 mark f1 190 M2000-5 201 ANF 95 * Current 4 GTA 1 SpaceHorseParty 190 KWSN-DSM 200 * Potential 92 * Forecast 4 Makarias 1 M2000-5 188 Costaz 191 * Forecast 70 sladealonso 3 sladealonso 1 KWSN-DSM 185 SpaceHorseParty 190 * Current 67 ANF 2 M2000-5 0 Anderis 180 ANF 135 Costaz 49 Benchulo 2 polesetter1 0 sladealonso 160It is now clear that KWSN-DSM has made the best guess of all on Magnussen and that is hugely annoying.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Bleu 2095,5 8,9 Costaz 2087,7 -5,1 Brawn BGP 001 2083,0 12,2 ANF 2054,2 13,8 GTA 2026,5 6,3 LB 2023,3 14,5 scheivlak 2023,3 14,5 mark f1 1987,7 6,9 KWSN-DSM 1965,3 16,0 polesetter1 1963,7 -0,8 Benchulo 1959,7 8,5 Anderis 1958,2 -2,4 LolaB8060 1939,5 14,7 DutchQuicksilver 1936,7 6,9 sladealonso 1931,3 -3,0 Makarias 1925,4 -2,1 SpaceHorseParty 1897,2 -1,3 M2000-5 1884,9 -2,4Bleu moves to the front in the forecast! Stay tuned for the final dramatic episode of this season, roughly one week from now!
