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Melbourne Pole Time- Prediction Contest. Prize sponsored by Gemini :)


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#1 Gemini

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 14:42

I had a quite succesfull round of poker last night, and I thought I will use some of this money in a good way, so good furtune will stay with me... hopefully :)

Let's guess the "Melbourne Pole Time". One try for one poster...The winner (the one whose prediction is the closest one) will get the award... 3+ rounds of beer at GP, that I and the winner might happen to attend.( I plan to attend Hungary and Austria or Monaco this year). If the latter is not possible, I will arrange a delivery of any F1 related book from Atlas F1 Bookstore directory...up to $30 price cup.

But if noones guess happens to be within +/- 0,1% of the actual pole time, then no prize will be awarded and I will have a right be called Gambler of the Year and change my nick to Lucky Gemini :)

For the reference:2001 Pole time was 1'26.892, so the +/-0,1% would be 0.086 sec

good luck!


P.S. I hope that what I offered is not against AtlasBB rules or something. If yes, then damn me... I will stick to my poker table :cat:

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#2 Clatter

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:01

Ok here's my guess.

1'26.154

#3 HSJ

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:02

Well, I guess about 1.5-2.0 sec off the time, giving 1'24.9-1'25.4. My guess is in between: 1'25.100. :)

#4 BogotanWarrior

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:06

1.25.987
Almost a second over last year!!

#5 Gemini

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:12

Originally posted by HSJ
My guess is in between: 1'25.1. :)


nice try HSJ, but you need to be more precise, because of suggested +/- ) 0.1% accuracy limit :) :up:

#6 130R

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:15

Melbourne - 1:25.350

#7 Hellenic tifosi

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:16

Gemini, what is the deadline?

#8 Yelnats

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:18

I think the big gains of last year won't be repeated as the tire war has stabilised for a while. As engine power and areodynamics appear to have reached an impasse so I will guess 1:25.9 would do it. About a 1 second improvment which seems typical of progress in technologically stabil years.

There have been periods in the history of F1 when time for a given formula were stabil for a few years. Does any one know of a plot of average yearly qualifying times relative to the previous years? Seems like an interesting project if it was anotated with technological developments and rules changes on a yearly basis.

#9 StickShift

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:19

1.25.468

#10 Pets22

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:21

Here goes

1:24.258

#11 Brian O Flaherty

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:22

I've looked into the future and the pole time was 1.26.233 :clap:

#12 Gemini

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:24

Originally posted by Hellenic tifosi
Gemini, what is the deadline?


before the Fri free practice starts...

#13 Brian O Flaherty

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:25

Originally posted by Yelnats
There have been periods in the history of F1 when time for a given formula were stabil for a few years. Does any one know of a plot of average yearly qualifying times relative to the previous years? Seems like an interesting project if it was anotated with technological developments and rules changes on a yearly basis.


That does sound like an interesting project but you would have to carefully check that track configurations didn't change from year to year aswell.

Hehe, just noticed your tag there. Like mine, it seems that Fangio and Nuvolari had the same attitude towards brakes :)

#14 HSJ

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:27

Originally posted by Gemini


nice try HSJ, but you need to be more precise, because of suggested +/- ) 0.1% accuracy limit :) :up:


Okay, so I added a couple of zeros to the end. :) Satisfied? You could have just assumed them. BTW, I'm probably not going to attend a GP, so you might want to hope that I win so that you don't have to buy me or anyone beer!

#15 BMW FW22

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:38

Wich is the e-mailadres where i can correspondate "??

My guess : 1 25 329

#16 AlesiGOD

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:38

1: 25.83 :)

#17 kenny

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:44

1'25"236

#18 karlth

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:47

1.24.800s

#19 Jdcasas

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:48

1:25.943

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#20 Will

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 15:52

1:25.579

#21 AlesiGOD

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:02

What were last years times? I was just taking a shot in the dark... :lol:

#22 Texas

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:07

1:24:135

Go KIMI!!!!!!

#23 BMW FW22

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:29

btw gemini :up:

But i think this is a nice idea to do a whole year and the overall winner get the price :)

For instance, every 1/1000 you are wrong, 1 point off and starting with 1000 points..

#24 BMW FW22

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:31

Originally posted by BMW FW22
Wich is the e-mailadres where i can correspondate "??

My guess : 1 25 329


hehe you took that to personal :D

Is 5 Bags of chips and 3 bacardi breezers and a heidi klumm wallpaper enough to let me win ?? :D

#25 JohnE

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:39

I'd go with 1.26.005

#26 Gemini

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 16:40

Originally posted by BMW FW22
btw gemini :up:

But i think this is a nice idea to do a whole year and the overall winner get the price :)

For instance, every 1/1000 you are wrong, 1 point off and starting with 1000 points..


it would be nice,yes, but...

1/ I am afraid I am not computer literate enough to manage such a database :blush:

2/ One unexpected wet qualifing session could destroy all the statistics

3/ This one is aimed on predicting "how the cars improved since last season" rather then predicting anything else (Melbourne usually offered predictable wheather)

Of course someone can continue this play aftet Melbourne :up:

#27 30ft penguin

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 17:01

You are all so wrong. The pole time definitely is 1:24.734. Hm, maybe I should start browsing the book lists ... :rotfl:

#28 byrkus

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 17:21

Now I'm going to take a totally different approach. I predict rain, and M. Schumacher's pole time would be 1:56.588. :clap: :clap:

#29 fisichella_2001

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 17:24

1:25.741

#30 Skouse

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 17:27

1' 25.512 for DC

#31 molive

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 18:13

1:24:935

#32 miniman

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 18:27

With a tire war and traction control I predict 1.22.963

#33 atbrady2000

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 20:42

125.345
:clap: :clap: :clap:

#34 MONTOYASPEED

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 20:50

1:25.784.

A Senna book would be perfect. ;)

#35 mtl'78

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 20:53

1:24.789

#36 Makarias

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:00

Dammit Gemini, I have planned to start a similar competition!! :mad: : :D

Though in my version it will be a season-long competition... I'll post more about it later I think.

#37 Crazy Canuck

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:03

1:24.500

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#38 tony

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:09

With TC and the advances made over the year, and during the offseason, I would predict somewhere in the high 22's or low 23's...Here's my official guess:


1.23.083

#39 UMSLtifosi

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:17

1'25,032

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#40 A3

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:21

1:25.876

#41 MLC

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 21:33

1:24.822

#42 gerry nassar

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 22:22

1.25.801

#43 Prostfan

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 23:22

1:26.000 exactly

#44 andviv

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 23:27

1.25.677

#45 jswavy

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Posted 05 February 2002 - 23:31

1:24.261

#46 Makarias

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Posted 07 February 2002 - 22:38

1:26.203, by Michael Schumacher.

#47 Makarias

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Posted 07 February 2002 - 23:12

Oh yeah, maybe I should mention it here too... I'll take the times posted here as entries to my own new competition. I hope nobody, especially Gemini, minds! :) If you want to take part in my competition too, you can add a driver's name to your guess.

#48 Gemini

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Posted 08 February 2002 - 08:46

Originally posted by Makarias
I hope nobody, especially Gemini, minds! :)


:) :up:

#49 Merlin

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Posted 08 February 2002 - 09:44

You're all way too optimistic.

1:26.111

#50 Peter

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Posted 08 February 2002 - 10:02

Melbourne pole will be 1:25.492 (and it will be Michael Schumacher!)